Restricted versus Unrestricted Choice in Labeled Choice Experiments: Exploring the Trade‐Offs of Expanding Choice Dimensions

A key methodological question in choice experiments is to identify whether there is a difference in choice behavior, and subsequent value estimates, when choices are constrained to mutually exclusive alternatives in labeled experiments compared to when combinations of alternatives are available. This issue is important when policy management options are represented in labeled experiments, as it is easier to represent management options as mutually exclusive choice alternatives, but combinations of management options may be more relevant in the policy world. This issue is tested with a case study application to the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. A split‐sample experiment is implemented where one survey includes four labeled alternatives: a status quo option and three specific policy management options (restricted choice). The other survey provides respondents with an unrestricted choice set by including a fifth alternative choice, labeled as “a combination of management options.” The results provide some evidence that adding a combination policy alternative does change the way that respondents view trade‐offs, but that choice behavior and subsequent value estimates are consistent across the two survey formats. Une question d’ordre méthodologique importante se pose dans le cas de la méthode des choix discrets expérimentaux : déterminer s’il existe ou non une différence dans les choix des répondants et dans les estimations subséquentes lorsque les alternatives proposées sont mutuellement exclusives et lorsque les alternatives proposées peuvent être des combinaisons d’alternatives mutuellement exclusives. Il s’agit d’un point important lorsque les options de gestion de politiques figurent dans des expériences avec des alternatives nongénériques étant donné qu’il est plus facile de présenter les stratégies de gestion comme des alternatives mutuellement exclusives, bien que les combinaisons de stratégies de gestion puissent être plus pertinentes pour les décideurs. Nous avons vérifié ce point à l’aide d’une étude de cas appliquée à la grande barrière de corail (Great Barrier Reef) de l’Australie. Nous avons utilisé la technique de l’échantillon fractionné : un premier sondage comprenait quatre choix distincts : conservation du statu quo et trois alternatives de gestion de politiques (choix contraint); un deuxième sondage comprenait un choix complet d’alternatives incluant une cinquième alternative intitulée « combinaison de stratégies de gestion ». Les résultats semblent indiquer que l’ajout d’une telle alternative influence la perception des répondants à l’égard de la valorisation des attributs, mais que les choix des répondants et les estimations subséquentes se ressemblent dans les deux formules de sondage.     

Planning road networks in landslide-prone areas: A case study from the northern forests of Iran

Road development in mountainous forestlands can lead to naturally formed slopes being disturbed. Efficient planning methodologies can assist forest engineers in either preventing or reducing the environmental impacts of forest roads. In this study, we first prepared an inclusive landslide susceptibility map for our study area using a Bayesian model. We next designed 12 road network alternatives using PEGGER, an ArcView GIS extension. We extracted the values of these alternatives from the susceptibility map to evaluate their environmental feasibility. We also evaluated the alternatives from an economic perspective using a model for conducting cost estimates of the forest roads. Our results show that this approach is useful for identifying the alternative that meets environmental and economic goals. The policy implications of this study suggest that if the development of road networks in mountainous areas is an important forestry goal, mechanisms should be aimed primarily at controlling slope instability.     

Does research applying the DPSIR framework support decision making?

The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was developed in the late 1990s to structure and organize indicators in a meaningful way. Since then, the framework has increasingly been applied in research projects with the aim of supporting decision making. A number of attributes of the framework regarding structuring and communication issues in research further strengthen its original purpose of bridging the science policy gap. We reviewed several studies that were mainly concerned with criticism and drawbacks of the DPSIR framework. Based on these studies and our own experiences in applying the DPSIR framework in an EU project to develop a decision support tool, we developed two criteria that we believe are crucial for policy relevant research: (a) the development of conceptual models integrating knowledge from different disciplines, specialists and policy makers, as well as those affected by their decisions; and (b) the potential to explain the results and analysis of research to different disciplines, specialists, stakeholders and the public and to demonstrate alternatives and provide decision options. We analyzed 21 studies using the DPSIR framework with regard to their relevance for decision making. We analyzed the definitions of the five DPSIR elements and whether specific end users were addressed in the respective studies. We found that in many studies, the DPSIR elements were defined in literature review or by researchers and that only a few studies targeted specific government authorities as users of research results. Eight out of 21 studies applied transdisciplinary research concepts and integrated broad ranges of stakeholder opinions and values into the research. Nine out of 21 studies presented alternative outcomes to decision makers and used the valuation of these outcomes by stakeholders to add further support to the decision-making process. The different positive and negative implications of the DPSIR framework are discussed with reference to research that supports policy making. Finally, we conclude that studies employing DPSIR may provide effective solutions for “real world problems” by taking into account additional criteria based on knowledge integration, stakeholder involvement and the provision of alternatives. Therefore, DPSIR is a useful tool to support decision making by means of showing solid evidence with alternatives and decision options, rather than by presenting predetermined solutions.     

Analysing Farm‐specific Payments for Norway using the Agrispace Model

Norway maintains a complex system of activity or type specific coupled payments which account for a large share of farm income. Most of the payment rates are negatively related to farm size and are higher in remote areas compared to central regions. We present and use a newly developed recursive‐dynamic multi‐commodity model (Agrispace) with CES production functions depicting regional farm clusters derived from the full farm population. Using this model, we simulate impacts of current and alternative subsidy policies on production, prices, input use, income and farm structural change. Mapping cluster results to each farm along with behavioural rules allows estimation of individual profits and farm exits. Our results indicate that, in the short run, the current policy regime seems to support the policy objective of maintaining a variety of farms in all parts of Norway. In the long run, farm structural change is less affected by a policy reform that leaves total support levels unchanged.     

An integrated approach for ex-ante evaluation of public policies for sustainable agriculture at landscape level

An integrated methodological framework for ex-ante evaluation and planning of public policies for sustainable agriculture at agro-landscape level is proposed. The components of the framework are to: (1) determine the private, i.e. farmers’, and public benefits associated to agro-landscapes, consisting of an agricultural land-use system, according to its performance for several market and non-market functions. Market forces determine the market benefits and preferences of society the non-market benefits; (2) explore and select potential sustainable agro-landscapes based on the private and public benefits associated with possible land-use alternatives; (3) define efficient public policy mechanisms for improving social net benefit of agro-landscapes.The framework is illustrated with a case study in a small dairy farming dominated agro-landscape in The Netherlands, with gross margin, landscape quality, nature value and environmental health as the analysed ecosystem functions. Alternative landscapes consisting of hedgerow configurations and grassland management practices were explored, yielding a set of alternatives representing the solution space in terms of change in private and public benefits. Policy mechanisms were defined to move from the current to a desired landscape based on changes in social net benefits. Moreover, the necessity of a modification in the current agri-environmental support was analysed for each landscape. The analysis considered all farmers in the agro-landscape jointly. The results for the case study showed potential prototypes of landscapes and their performance compared to the current landscape. Extension was the most efficient policy mechanism to promote the change to the socially optimum landscape alternative.     

Building an empirically-based framework to value multiple public goods of agriculture at broad supranational scales

Agricultural landscapes deliver multiple, highly valued goods such as cultural amenities, biodiversity conservation and climate stability. These goods are often delivered as side-effects of farmers' production decisions driven by broad-scale, supranational changes in agricultural, trade or other policies. Human well-being is thus affected in ways not taken into account in these macro-policy decisions. To avoid this policy failure, there is a growing demand for the valuation of broad-scale changes in public goods by the general public. For this purpose, context-rich valuation scenarios at this broad scale need to be developed which are empirically-based, policy-relevant and understandable by the general public. In this way, respondents are focused on actual trade-offs rather than invited to give symbolic reactions. This paper presents and discusses a valuation framework developed to fulfil these criteria. The approach is based on a typology of Macro-Regional Agri-Environmental Problems (MRAEP). Each MRAEP is defined by: (1) prevailing farming systems and agricultural landscapes; (2) current levels of public-good delivery; (3) expected direction of land-use change; and (4) expected effects of such change on public-good provision in each macro-region. Multivariate analysis of EU-wide data on agricultural landscapes and farming-systems led to identify thirteen macro-regions in the EU. Current public-good provision was described using public-good indicators. Only those public goods that are expected to change or could be improved by available policy options (core public goods) were used to generate choice alternatives for survey respondents. The paper ends by discussing innovative elements in the proposed approach, achievements, shortcomings and possible policy uses.     

COMBINATIONS OF BUFFER-STOCKS AND BUFFER-FUNDS FOR WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA*

In this paper a preliminary analysis is presented of a combined buffer-fund and buffer-stock as an alternative to a pure buffer-fund or a pure buffer stock for stabilising wool prices. The alternatives analysed are designed so that each provides the same prices to producers as did the Reserve Price Scheme over the period of analysis. Least-cost combinations of policy instruments are derived. The results show that there is considerable potential for cost savings to be made by combining buffer-fund and buffer-stock instruments.     

Farmers' adoption of ecological practices: A systematic literature map

Understanding the factors associated with adoption of ecological farming practices is a well-established topic of interest to agricultural economists. As the transition to more sustainable agriculture has become a policy priority for the European Union, broad and balanced reviews of this literature are important. We develop a systematic map of quantitative observational studies which describes the ecological practice(s) adopted, the frequency of inclusion and significance of a range of independent variables, and how the dependent variable is measured. We also conduct a quality assessment. We find that while socio-demographic variables and farm structural variables are frequently included, they were insignificant more often than they were significant. For behavioural factors we find stronger evidence for the importance of cognitive or attitudinal variables compared to dispositional attitudinal variables. We also find a growing interest in social factors which will be valuable for researchers to explore further and reflect on the policy implications of our findings.     

Assessing a Policy Grab Bag: Federal Water Policy Reform

This article examines the economic impacts of policy alternatives for addressing allocative inefficiencies among agricultural, urban, and environmental uses of federal water. The Central Valley Project Improvement Act, composed of multiple incentive–based and command–and–control policies, forms the context for this analysis. Estimated multi–output agricultural revenue functions and urban water demand functions are incorporated into a nonlinear programming model designed to predict changes in water use, returns to agriculture, and urban consumer surplus. Results suggest that analysis that does not explicitly model policy instruments implemented at sub–optimal levels and, as part of a package of reforms, could over– or underestimate the costs, benefits, and effectiveness of each policy instrument.     

The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.     

基于AHP构建中国不动产登记制度的分析

研究目的：构建不动产登记制度可选方案的体系,并评选出适合中国的不动产登记制度与配套方案。研究方法：运用层级分析法（AHP）,借鉴各国或地区的制度经验,构建中国不动产登记制度可选方案的体系,再针对土地、法律专家以及政府土地部门领导专家进行专家问卷调查,求取专家意见的一致性。研究结果：中国应采取土地管理部门统一不动产登记、土地及房屋均采取强制登记、以产权文件作为确保登记无误的关键审核文件、登记机关设立基金赔偿或投保赔偿以及设立土地登记代理人5个方案。研究结论：中国适合采用强制登记、实质审查以及错误赔偿的权利登记制,以及发放权利书状的托伦斯登记制,成为混合登记制;实施时应依序进行土地确权、土地与房屋管理部门整并、建立登记机关赔偿机制以及建立土地登记代理人制度。     

Presidential Address: The Visible or Invisible Hand? The Balance Between Markets and Regulation in Agricultural Policy

The recent crisis in global financial markets has brought into question reliance on markets to determine the conduct of economic affairs and generated pressure for greater regulation and government control. Neither a neoliberal nor a neoregulatory approach is likely to be able to solve pressing problems affecting agriculture and natural resources, such as a deterioration in environmental quality and the challenge of climate change. To find solutions we need to employ a more realistic behavioural model than that typically used in economic analysis, and to recognise the key role played by values in individual and collective decision making. A more devolved approach to policy formation based on collective action seems to offer the greatest chance of success. More effort needs to be directed to understanding the drivers and processes of collective decision making, and how it can be harnessed to address pressing policy issues.     

Remittances,monetary institutions,and autocracies

ABSTRACT

How do remittances affect the choice of exchange rate regimes? Previous research shows that remittances, by easing the ‘impossible trinity’, increase the probability of governments adopting fixed exchange rates. However, that research overlooks the conditioning effect of monetary and political institutions. We argue that remittances, by altering recipient governments’ incentives to use monetary policy counter-cyclically, make central bank independence a credible anti-inflationary tool in less credible regimes; that is, autocracies. Thus, autocracies that receive remittances do not need to rely on fixed exchange rates. In this way, remittances open policy alternatives for developing autocracies. Statistical tests on a sample of 87 developing and transitional countries between 1980 and 2010 support our argument.     

A ‘SATISFICING’ MODEL OF CAP DECISION-MAKING

Agricultural policy decisions in the European Community tend to be treated as exogenous influences on agricultural markets, on the grounds that political factors assume a dominant (yet indeterminant) role in the decision-making process of the Common Agricultural Policy. This paper attempts to endogenise the annual price-fixing process in a behavioural model based on the assumption that politically motivated decision-makers seek to achieve ‘satisficing’ rather than optimal solutions to the conflicting problems of farm income support and budgetary expenditure.     

Decoupled Agricultural Policy and the Lack of Production Alternatives

Overall, only a small proportion of geographic-specific production (for the selected commodities) are in areas that are highly specialized in that commodity. The large proportion of production in nonspecialized regions suggests that other production opportunities do exist. Thus, a “decoupled” agricultural policy would not necessarily mean that producers receiving a decoupled “government payment would be constrained by geographic factors to continue their original production pattern. We recognize, however, that others may wish to select different commodity groups when analyzing the availability of production alternatives. We suggest that census data do provide one way for determining the extent to which a decoupled” agricultural policy may in effect lock in the existing production pattern.     

The role of common pool problems in irrigation inefficiency: a case study in groundwater pumping in Mexico

Groundwater depletion is a serious problem in Mexico. Several policy alternatives are currently being considered in order to improve the efficiency of irrigation water use so that extraction of groundwater is diminished. An understanding and quantification of different sources of inefficiency in groundwater extraction is critical for policy design. Survey data from a geographically extensive sample of irrigators is used to gauge the importance of common pool problems on input‐specific irrigation inefficiency. Results show that mechanisms of electricity cost sharing implemented in many wells have a sizable impact on inefficiency of irrigation application. Moreover, irrigation is very inelastic to its own unitary cost. Therefore, results suggest that policies aimed at eliminating electricity cost‐sharing mechanisms would be significantly more effective than electricity price‐based policies in reducing irrigation application. Results also show that well sharing does not affect groundwater pumping significantly, suggesting either a limited effect of individual pumping on water level or absence of strategic pumping by farmers sharing the wells.     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

Minimising foreign control of land in an era of globalisation prospects for St. Lucia

Although globalisation is not a recent phenomenon, it is the trend toward trade liberalisation that poses the greatest threat to small countries. The paramount question is how can small states buffeted by the forces of trade liberalisation attract foreign investment while protecting their populations from the foreign control of land. Using St. Lucia as a case study, this paper reviews the existing land tenure system, examines the force of current legislative, fiscal and land use policy instruments used to limit foreign control of land, and presents alternatives for curtailing the potentially negative effect of trade liberalisation on the foreign control of land.     

SIMULATION MODELS FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF FARM INVESTMENT PLANS

The implicit assumption of the methods currently advocated for the appraisal of investment plans on farms is that the main task is to choose the “best” course of action given a number of alternatives. The specification of these alternatives is a difficult task since there are many ways of performing farm operations because of the heterogeneity of fixed capital. It is proposed in this paper that investment opportunities may become more apparent by building simulation models of existing farming systems. Such models, it is claimed, should assist in identifying points where improvements can be made. The process of harvesting grain on U.K. farms is used to illustrate the suggestion. Some problems of using the simulation technique are also discussed.     

Psychological Constructs Underlying Farmers’ Decisions to Diversify or Specialise their Businesses – An Application of Theory of Planned Behaviour

We use the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to explain how underlying psychological constructs influence farmers’ decisions to extend their farm businesses to income‐generating ventures outside conventional agricultural production. The analysis contrasts the influence of psychological constructs on this decision with those on decisions to specialise in a single farm enterprise or to have multiple farm enterprises. This is one of the first studies to introduce psychological constructs into the study of farm diversification. It is based on a sample of 929 Swedish farms participating in the official Swedish Farm Economic Survey. These data are supplemented with a detailed postal questionnaire to the participating farmers, generating a response rate of 73% and an effective sample size of 679 farmers and their businesses. Data are analysed with factor and multinomial logistic regression analyses. Results show that psychological constructs in TPB (attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control) influence farmers’ decisions regarding the strategy they adopt. Attitude and subjective norm are found to be especially influential in these decisions. Given the prominent role agriculture still has in rural development policy, where the development of new ventures in farm businesses is perceived as the engine for rural economic growth and employment, these findings have clear policy implications.