GAME THEORY-AN EXTENSION OF ITS APPLICATION TO FARM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Current game theoretic models for farnt planning are limited in scope and restrictive in their assumptions. This paper reviews the current status of such models, compares them to the quadratic programming model, and then combines the desirable features of the game theoretic and quadratic Programming approaches by means of parametric linear programming     

TOWARDS A MORE DYNAMIC APPROACH TO FARM PLANNING*

The result of an attempt to reconcile practical experience with theoretical production economics, is the development of the view that a more dynamic approach to farm planning may better be achieved by a concentration on data production, rather than on data manipulation. This view is based on the belief that, in practice, the farmer finds himself involved with choice from a relatively narrow, and obvious, set of technically feasible, efficient farm plans. His main problem in the choice of a farm plan is seen as the estimation of the probability that the various possible financial outcomes will be achieved, since the possible effects of the latter on his future list of choices cannot be ignored. The type of data believed to be needed is described, and a line of theoretical analysis followed which is meant to underline the importance of this data, and to develop principles for use in its production.     

RISK EVALUATION IN FARM PLANNING* A STATISTICAL APPROACH

Economic planning implies decision-making based on the comparison of alternative courses of action, viewed against a background (in the real world at any rate) of uncertainty and imperfect knowledge. Successful planning is thus heavily dependent on the reliability of prediction which lea & inevitably to the domain of probability theory and its application to planning models. In spite of the considerable attention given to the application of mathematical models in farm management research work in recent times⁽¹⁾ to⁽⁹⁾ and ⁽¹⁵⁾ there is stilla paucity of applied work with respect to evaluating the nature of risk associated with planning projects at the individual farm level. In addition, very little published data is available on either a regional or production-type basis that gives a clear understanding of the nature of probability distributions for planning variables. This paper formulates a simple model which can be used in practical planning exercises and also demonstrates that with a new generation of statistically-processed planning data the application of the classical concepts of probability to routine economic planning is both practicable and worthwhile.     

SHORT-AND LONG-RUN FARM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY; INTEGRATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

The paper presents an approach to an integrated long-run and short-run farm planning under uncertainty, based on a decomposition of the problem into (i) a series of short-run plans, and (ii) a master long-run plan. The series of the short-run plans are parametrically solved by linear programming "variable right hand" techniques and are later integrated into a long-run program using a (computerized) decision tree analysis. The attitude towards risk of the farm operator is expressed in the willingness to maximize the expected value of the income stream over the planning horizon subject to the restriction that alternatives which may lead to lack of liquidity must be eliminated.
Ce travail présenle une approche tentative ďintégrer, sous conditions incertaines, une planification de ferme à court et long terme. La planification est basée sur la partition du problème en (i) série de courte durée et (ii) de tongue durée. Les séries de courte durée sont résolues àľaide dun programme linéaire, et intégreés ensuite dans un programme à long terme àľaide de ľanalyse de "décision arbre."ľattitude envers les risques de ľentrepreneur est exprimée par la volonté-de maxiliser la valeur de revenu prévu au delá de la planification sous resérve de la restriction que des alternatives qui peuvent conduire à un manque de moyens liquides, doivent être éliminees.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PEASANT FARM PRODUCTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY*

In this paper the impact of cotton on a traditional food crop system in a semi-arid area of Kenya is analysed using a linear programming model and sensitivity analysis. Alternative criteria, maximax, maximin, and a standard average return maximand, are used in turn. The solutions are all evaluated as ‘best year’, ‘worst year’, and average values. This gives a range of results that cakes account of the uncertainty in the farming situation. Several policy conclusions follow from the analysis. It is argued that the approach used is more realistic than an approach in which a single maximand is used, and that the simplicity of the approach brings it within reach of many involved in farm production analysis.     

FURTHER TOWARDS A MORE DYNAMIC APPROACH TO FARM PLANNING: A COMMENT

In a recent contribution to the Jounal, Harle (1974) introduces a model of the farm firm based on the achievement of what he calls economic technical eficiency. The approach Is an attempt to reconcile recent interpretations of the farm planning problem with the author's own practical experience in farm management. The nature of the planning problem and the definition of economic technical efficiency are of central importance to the validity and usefulness of the model, and both demand further comment.     

THE INTEGRATED USE OF SIMULATION AND STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING FOR WHOLE FARM PLANNING UNDER RISK*

Methods of whole-farm planning under risk are briefly reviewed, noting especially associated operational problems. A planning problem relating to spatial diversification of beef production in the Clarence region of N.S.W. is investigated using a model comprising both simulation and linear programming components. It is concluded that such composite models are valuable for the analysis of sequential stochastic decision processes not presently amenable to solution by stochastic programming alone.     

Policy review of water reform in the Murray–Darling Basin,Australia: the “do's” and “do'nots”

The water reforms undertaken in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia since 2007 have been viewed as a model for other countries seeking to respond to water insecurity. Here, a policy review is provided of this water reform and whether it delivers on key environmental objectives in the 2007 Water Act (the Act). The evaluation includes a review of the 2012 Basin Plan, a key instrument of the Act, and complementary policies associated with the acquisition of water entitlements for the environment via direct (reverse tenders) and indirect (infrastructure subsidies) means. Using the objects of the Act as a benchmark, an evaluation is provided of the following: (i) planned reductions in irrigation water extractions in the 2012 Basin Plan; (ii) risks associated with the 2018 amendments to the Basin Plan that, collectively, allow for an increase in irrigation water extractions of some 22 per cent, relative to the sustainable diversion limits specified in the 2012 Basin Plan; (iii) Basin‐scale environmental outcomes achieved, as of the end of 2018; and (iv) economic effects of direct and indirect methods of acquiring water for the environment. Findings from the review generate the “Do's” and “Do Nots” of water reform for Australia, and possibly other countries, when managing the trade‐offs between water for irrigation and the environment.     

Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”

The importance of calibrating hedging strategies for processors has escalated primarily due to the sharply increased volatility of futures, product, and by‐product prices. The purpose of this paper is to analyze price risk‐management strategies for wheat flour milling using copula distributions. While the application is for flour milling, it has similarities with other processing industries which confront one or more ingredients, one or more outputs, and futures for one of the commodities and/or products. The paper develops utility maximizing models encompassing expected return and risk. Alternative scenarios are evaluated. First, the models were used to derive optimal hedge ratios, as well as various measures of risk and return under alternative scenarios, and hedge durations. The results indicated hedge ratios are typically less than 1. The hedge ratios for the Mean‐value‐at‐risk (M‐VaR)‐Copula model increased with greater durations. Second, the VaR for the M‐VaR‐Copula was in most cases less than the noncopula specifications. Thus, noncopula models may over state risk as represented by VaR.     

Afterword: Reflections on “Capitalist development in hostile environments”

This afterword places the long essay “Capitalist Development in Hostile Environments” in the context of Giovanni Arrighi's overall intellectual trajectory. It highlights several crucial theoretical and methodological contributions to debates, including on the relationship between proletarianization and capitalist development, and between labour migration, class formation, and class conflict; on the interrelationship between “internal” and “external” processes in the explanation of social change; and on the distinction between economic progress, “catching‐up” development, and popular welfare. It concludes with a brief discussion of ways in which Arrighi's later theorization of the longue durée evolution of historical capitalism provides a robust conceptual framework for ongoing studies of proletarianization and capitalist development.     

The “left behind”: Smallholders in contemporary Russian agriculture

Smallholder production in Russia has been in decline for more than a decade. The likelihood is for continued marginalization. Smallholders confront four obstacles. First, path dependencies, which includes the fact that smallholders' production remains traditional and subsistence oriented. Second, institutions in the form of state policy restrict land and animals. Third, Russia's role in the third food regime means that smallholders are unable to help Russia's emergence as a global food superpower. Fourth, smallholders are being left behind in the ongoing technological revolution led by agroholdings. As technological advancement expands in scope, the gap between large farms and smallholders will widen.     

Evaluating alternative “countermeasures” against food contamination resulting from nuclear accidents

Nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl have far reaching impacts on ecological systems. Likewise they have major implications for agricultural systems, since crops and livestock can become contaminated and rendered unfit for human consumption. A range of “countermeasures” exists, however, which can mitigate these impacts and allow food products to be saved. The CESER project has been concerned with the development of a system to assess the environmental side‐effects of such countermeasures. Estimates of the economic costs of these environmental side‐effects have been made for a number of case study sites in the UK, using environmental models and an original contingent valuation study. Estimates of farm level (private) costs are also included.     

Introduction to the special issue “small farms: decline or persistence?”

This issue of Agricultural Economics contains articles from a seminar entitled “Small Farms: Decline or Persistence?” held at the University of Kent. This issue includes nine papers selected from more than 50 papers presented at the seminar. Articles published use a range of econometric and simulation methods to provide a suite of case studies. Topics studied range from such fundamental issues as what constitutes a small farm to recent trends in the diversification of small farms and their integration into modern globalized food chains. Several papers emphasize the link between agricultural policy development and the future of small farms.     

Land administration “best practice” providing the infrastructure for land policy implementation

Land administration systems, and particularly their core cadastral components, are an important infrastructure which facilitates the implementation of land use policies. While most land administration systems traditionally have a primary objective of supporting the operation of land markets, they are increasingly evolving into a broader land information infrastructure which supports economic development, environmental management and social stability in both developed and developing countries. While a great deal of attention is given to land use policies worldwide concerned with such areas as forest management, coastal zone management, environmental sustainability and managing the urban environment, less attention is given to the infrastructures which facilitate the implementation of the associated policies and programmes. Importantly, all these activities rely on some form of land administration infrastructure which permits the complex range of rights, restrictions and responsibilities in land to be identified, mapped and managed as a basis for policy formulation and implementation. As a result, there is an increasing interest in the concept of land administration infrastructures and their core cadastres, in the principles and policies concerned with establishing such infrastructures and in “best practices”. In addressing this need, this paper attempts to explain the evolving concept of land administration infrastructures, the concept of “best practice” and the concept of a land administration “tool box” of principles, policies, laws and technologies which are useful in reforming or re-engineering land administration systems in support of a broader land policy agenda.     

Collaborative growth management in metropolitan Denver: “Fig leaf or valiant effort?”

Metro Vision 2020 is a collaborative effort to manage growth in metropolitan Denver. Based on interviews, surveys and document analysis, an evaluation revealed that it was a well-managed process that raised awareness about growth problems. The efforts also resulted in an approved regional plan that initiated an innovative urban growth boundary policy. However, the lack of broad-based participation, limited understanding of policy effects, and inadequate implementation tools raised doubts about long-term effectiveness. The broader implications are that collaboration at the metropolitan scale needs to explore more participatory models, stronger implementation tools, and institutional structures that will support consensus.     

Applying economic sociology to understand the meaning of “Quality” in food markets

This article reviews the concept of the “market” and questions the standard view of the “market” developed by orthodox economic theory. The article highlights how Economic Sociology and Convention Theory is more useful in understanding markets and appreciating markets as social constructs, which are governed by institutions and social orders. This adjustment in the analytical framework to study markets and especially food markets, is useful in unpacking the various dimensions of “quality” in food products and illustrating that “quality” is an institution that is shaped by society and by culture.