Agent-based modeling of systemic risk in the European banking sector

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - In this paper, we use an agent-based simulation combined with innovative calibration techniques to model the European banking system as accurately...     

Asset diversification and systemic risk in the financial system

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - In this study, we have developed a complex network system from the obligation links among banks and links created by portfolio overlaps to...     

The global financial crisis: Lessons for European integration

The EU's limited fiscal capacity has proven to be the most critical constraint in responding to the global financial crisis in a coordinated manner. The EU does not have enough resources to rescue the troubled financial institutions and member states. This leads to a nationalization of rescue operations, which undermines the Single European Market and requires IMF involvement with respect to member states in distress. The EU must also complete the lacking elements of the Single European Market architecture (such as European financial supervision) and help in strengthening global policy and regulatory coordination.     

Human capital mobility patterns in the European Union and the financial crisis

This paper provides new evidence on the quantification of economic losses and/or gains from skilled human capital mobility in terms of GDP and productivity in several EU countries during and after the Great Recession. We construct two novel indicators to quantify and compare the economic effects of human capital mobility across EU countries in 2008, 2012, and 2016. Through hierarchical clustering, we created groups of countries to perform a non-parametric MANOVA. The results suggest the existence of three groups of countries aggregated by similar economic and mobility patterns. The differences between these groups are significant and allow us to delineate the countries’ gains and losses.

     

Financial stability of Islamic banking and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council

Using a sample of 76 banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council region, we use accounting- as well as market-based measures of financial stability to examine whether Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks in the time of financial shocks during the period 2000–2013. We find that the difference between the two banking types was initially not significant during the GFC. However, when the financial shock spread to the real economy during the later phases of the crisis, Islamic banks suffered a significantly higher level of financial instability than conventional banks. This result holds true for large banks but not for small Islamic banks. Small Islamic banks demonstrated a relatively better handling of the economic downturn than large Islamic banks, supporting the argument that Islamic banks are more stable when they operate at a small scale but lose this stability when they increase their scale of operations. Hence, while Islamic banks may have escaped the consequences of highly volatile financial instruments, they were not spared from a major shock in the real economic sectors.     

Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis

We use a dynamic panel data model to analyze bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank risk for a large sample of commercial banks operating in the euro area. The selected time span, from 2001 to 2012, considers the impact of the on-going financial and economic crisis on the Eurozone banking system. Our results indicate that capitalization, profitability, efficiency and liquidity are inversely and significantly related to bank risk. However, the recourse to wholesale funding by banks seems to increase their risk. We also find that less-concentrated markets, lower interest rates, higher inflation rates and a context of economic crisis (with a falling GDP) increase bank risk.     

The Paraguayan financial system and Paraguay's experience in universal banking

This article shows how Paraguay, a small developing open economy, has developed a financial system which has helped to achieve growth with financial stability.     

The Norwegian banking crisis: Managerial escalation of decline and crisis

This paper examines the impact and nature of managerial contribution to the Norwegian banking crisis. Numerous findings are reviewed which suggest that many bank managers produced inappropriate responses to the initial decline and subsequent crisis, and thus contributed to the crisis, due to a set of common managerial misrepresentations of the situation. These include: external attribution of failure, overoptimism and overconfidence, the confirmation trap, the illusion of control, irrational escalation of commitment and insufficient adjustment.     

Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk

Financial bipartite networks provide channels for contagion risks and their topological properties determine financial stability. We enrich the bipartite network reconstruction methods proposed by Ramadiah et al. (2020) and extend them to the Chinese banking system. By comparing the reproducibility of the real credit market and the corresponding systemic risk, the impact of topological properties for different reconstructed bipartite networks on financial stability is analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that network reconstruction methods based on maximum entropy ensembles capture more properties in the real credit network. It also highlights that the different systemic risk level is mainly contributed by the topological properties based on common exposures. These analyses for topological properties provide regulatory insights for systemic risk prevention. It shows that reducing credit similarity across banks while increasing credit diversification in different sectors helps to control systemic risk. The results imply the possibility of increasing financial stability through the macro-regulation of the credit market structure.     

Collective bargaining in Portugal in the aftermath of the crisis: trends and prospects

This article examines the decline of collective bargaining in Portugal during the recent economic crisis and why, following significant improvements in the economic and political contexts, the number of collective agreements published each year remains lower than before. Drawing on theoretical work on institutional change by Streeck and Thelen (2005) and Baccaro and Howell (2017), it argues that industrial relations institutions in Portugal have been subject to an incremental but transformative process of liberalisation. The analysis of national data and in‐depth interviews with key informants reveals that serial legal amendments since the 1990's weakened unions, converted bargaining into a mechanism to introduce flexibility and wage austerity and reduced incentives for the parties to conclude agreements. While these changes were gradual, their consequences became clear during the crisis. By improving understanding of recent developments in Portuguese collective bargaining, the article enriches knowledge of processes of liberalisation of industrial relations in Europe.     

The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy in addressing liquidity risk during the financial crisis: The experiences of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank

A number of studies sought to measure the effects of non-standard policy on bank funding markets. This paper carries those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending. By separately modeling loan supply and demand, we determine how non-standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets. Our results suggest that non-standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility in the US and the Euro Area. Lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions, contributing to sustained lending activity.     

Measuring systemic risk of the Chinese banking industry: A wavelet-based quantile regression approach

In systemic risk measure, a large amount of literature has emerged, but few of them take into account the multi-scale natures of financial data. Considering these natures, we develop a novel W-QR-CoVaR method to measure systemic risk. To be specific, the W-QR-CoVaR method combines the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) with the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) method based on the quantile regression (QR) framework. We then apply it to measure the systemic risk in the Chinese banking industry covering the period from September 2007 to September 2018. Our experiment results show that the hybrid W-QR-CoVaR method performs better than the traditional CoVaR method in terms of predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we also explore the relation between the systemic risk contribution of each individual bank and the bank-specific characteristics. Size and leverage appear to be the most robustness determinants. The findings suggest that regulators should pay more attention to the banks with smaller size and higher leverage.     

Deposit insurance and banking system risk: Some empirical evidence

This paper examines the effect of federal deposit insurance on the riskiness of the commercial banking system. It is generally acknowledged that a system affixed rate deposit insurance creates incentives for banks to increase their risk-taking activities. Yet very little empirical evidence exists confirming or refuting this supposition. The coefficient of variation of bank profits and the standard deviation of profits are used as measures of bank risk. How these measures of bank risk are affected by deposit insurance coverage, and other variables thought to affect bank risk, is examined. Deposit insurance is found to have a statistically significant positive effect on bank risk. This result provides empirical support for the FDIC Improvement Act requirement of risk related deposit insurance premiums starting January 1994.     

Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach

We perform an analysis of systemic risk in financial and energy sectors in Europe using daily time series of CDS spreads. We employ the factor copula model with GAS dynamics from Oh and Patton (2018) for the purpose of estimating dependency structures between market participants. Based on the estimated models, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to obtain future values of CDS spreads, and then measure the probability of systemic events at given time points. We conclude that substantially higher systemic risk is present in the financial sector compared to the energy sector. We also find that the most systemically vulnerable financial and energy companies come from Spain.     

Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets

This study investigates the effects of the recent global crisis on the relative efficiency of six CEE currency markets, using the generalized spectral test of Escanciano and Velasco (2006) in a rolling window approach. The empirical results show that the global crisis adversely affected the efficiency of most CEE currency markets, with the Turkish lira being hit the hardest, followed by the Russian ruble, Czech koruna, Romanian leu, Polish zloty and Hungarian forint. In the first stage of the crisis, covering the second half of 2008 and the first months of 2009, all foreign exchange markets experienced periods of inefficiency. In the second stage of the crisis, the Hungarian, Polish and Romanian foreign markets recovered market efficiency quickly, while Russia, Turkey and the Czech Republic continue to register a low degree of efficiency.     

Taming financial systemic risk: models,instruments and early warning indicators

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination -     

Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. In our empirical results the estimated LGDs perceived by financial markets stay comfortably below 40% in most of the samples. Global financial indicators are positively and strongly correlated with the market perception of sovereign credit risk; whilst macroeconomic and institutional developments were at best only weakly correlated with the market perception of sovereign credit risk.     

Oil structural shocks,bank-level characteristics,and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems

By performing a structural VAR analysis on oil price shocks, we provide an evidence on how the origins of oil price shocks impact the risk level of banks in oil-exporting countries and whether bank-level characteristics can influence the sensitivity of risk to oil shocks. When conducting panel regression analysis, we document the following findings. First, not all shocks have the same effect on bank risk. Due to oil supply shocks, the increase in oil price raises bank risk, whereas the similar increase in price due to economic expansion or oil-market specific demand reduces that risk. Second, the business model (whether the bank is Islamic or conventional), size, income diversification, profitability, and financial leverage influence the bank risk exposure to oil shocks differently. Third, the two major recent crises (global financial crises and COVID-19 pandemic) magnified bank risk exposure to oil supply shocks and speculative oil demand shocks. Overall, the structural oil shocks explain a large fraction of the variation in financial stability in GCC countries.     

Debt dependence and corporate performance in a financial crisis: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis

This study examines the effect of corporate debt dependence on the differential impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on corporate performance. We find that the higher the debt dependence the greater the decrease in corporate performance from the pre-crisis to the crisis period. For high-debt firms, we find that the higher the new debt borrowed during the crisis period, the lower the corporate performance. However, we find no significant relation between new debt borrowed and corporate performance for low debt firms during the crisis period.     

Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks, enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel, over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that the liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.