Introduction: methodologies of bounded rationality

The modelling of bounded rationality is currently pursued by approaches that exhibit a wide diversity of methodologies. This special issue collects five contributions that discuss different methodological aspects of these approaches. In our introduction, we map the variety of methodological positions with respect to three questions. First, what kinds of evidence do the respective approaches consider relevant for modelling bounded rationality? Second, what kind of modelling desiderata do the respective approaches focus on? And third, how do the respective approaches justify the normative validity of bounded rationality? To broaden the picture, we not only discusss the five contributions of this issue, but also include relevant positions from the extant literature.     

Psychological versus economic models of bounded rationality

That the rationality of individual people is ‘bounded’ – that is, finite in scope and representational reach, and constrained by the opportunity cost of time – cannot reasonably be controversial as an empirical matter. In this context, the paper addresses the question as to why, if economics is an empirical science, economists introduce bounds on the rationality of agents in their models only grudgingly and partially. The answer defended in the paper is that most economists are interested primarily in markets and only secondarily in the dynamics of individual decisions – specifically, they are interested in these dynamics mainly insofar as they might systematically influence the most useful approaches to modeling interesting markets. In market contexts, bounds on rationality are typically generated by institutional and informational properties specific to the market in question, which arise and are sustained by structural dynamics that do not originate in or reduce to individuals' decisions or psychological dispositions. To be sure, these influences interact with psychological dispositions, so economists have reason to attend to the psychology of valuation. But no general model of bounded rationality should ever be expected to feature in the economist's toolkit, regardless of the extent to which psychologists successfully identify specific human cognitive limitations. Use of moderate rational expectations assumptions should be understood in this light. Such assumptions are readily relaxed in specific applications, and in ways customized to modeling circumstances, that modelers, experimentalists, and econometricians are making steadily more sophisticated.     

Welfare economics and bounded rationality: the case for model-based approaches

In this paper, we examine the problems facing a policy maker who observes inconsistent choices made by agents who are boundedly rational. We contrast a model-less and a model-based approach to welfare economics. We make the case for the model-based approach and examine its advantages as well as some problematic issues associated with it.     

Policy instruments for evolution of bounded rationality: Application to climate-energy problems

We demonstrate how an evolutionary agent-based model can be used to evaluate climate policies that take the heterogeneity of strategies of individual agents into account. An essential feature of the model is that the fitness of an economic strategy is determined by the relative welfare of the associated agent as compared to its immediate neighbors in a social network. This enables the study of policies that affect relative positions of individuals. We formulate two innovative climate policies, namely a prize, altering directly relative welfare, and advertisement, which influences the social network of interactions. The policies are illustrated using a simple model of global warming where a resource with a negative environmental impact—fossil energy—can be replaced by an environmentally neutral yet less cost-effective alternative, namely renewable energy. It is shown that the general approach enlarges the scope of economic policy analysis.     

Analysis on the dynamics of a Cournot investment game with bounded rationality

In this work, a dynamic system of investment game played by two firms with bounded rationality is proposed. It is assumed that each firm in any period makes a strategy for investment and uses local knowledge to make investment strategy according to the marginal profit observed in the previous period. Theoretic work is done on the existence of equilibrium solutions, the instability of the boundary equilibriums and the stability conditions of the interior equilibrium. Numerical simulations are used to provide experimented evidence for the complicated behaviors of the system evolution. It is observed that the equilibrium of the system can loose stability via flip bifurcation or Neimark–Sacher bifurcation and time-delayed feedback control can be used to stabilize the chaotic behaviors of the system.     

A cognition paradigm clash: Simon,situated cognition and the interpretation of bounded rationality

Simon’s notion of bounded rationality is deeply intertwined with his activity as a cognitive psychologist and founder of so-called cognitivism, a mainstream approach in cognitive psychology until the 1980s. Cognitivism, understood as ‘symbolic information processing,’ provided the first cognitive psychology foundation to bounded rationality. Has bounded rationality since then fully followed the development of cognitive psychology beyond symbolic information processing in the post-Simonian era? To answer this question, this paper focuses on Simon’s opposition during the 1990s to a new (paradigmatic) view of cognition called situated cognition, which has since put into question the entire view in cognitive psychology of humans as symbolic information processors. This paper then reads the cognitivism/situated cognition debate through the lens of current bounded rationality research in economics, in order (i) to inquire into whether it has tackled the issues in that controversy; (ii) to envisage possible new foundations for a cognitive psychology-based bounded rationality.     

The complexity of resource allocation and price mechanisms under bounded rationality

Summary We develop a framework for designing and evaluating the complexity of mechanisms that allocate resources in a distributed setting to agents or processors with bounded computational ability. We discuss several mechanisms and describe the construction of efficient price based mechanisms, which exploit the decentralized aspects of the problem. These price mechanisms are polynomial in the number of resources, precision of the solution, and the logarithm of the number of agents.We thank Thomas Marschak and a anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. This research was been supported by National Science Foundation Grant IRI-8902813.     

Foreign aid and fiscal behavior in a bounded rationality model: Different policy regimes

We examine how the source of foreign aid affects the composition of the recipient government's spending. Does the source of aid – bilateral or multilateral – influence recipient policy-makers' choice between development and nondevelopment expenditure? We depart from previous literature by introducing strong asymmetries in policy-makers' preferences. With the financial constraints set by foreign aid and domestic revenues, this formalization allows us to model and estimate the fiscal behavior of government policy-makers in the presence of foreign aid.     

Lifestyle conformity and lifecycle saving: a Veblenian perspective

Since the 1950s, the lifecycle hypothesis has been the dominantexplanation for the ‘inverse U’ in household wealthaccumulation. This paper advances an alternative explanation,rooted in the ideas of Veblen, that emphasises the role of lifestyleconformity: Because people tend to adopt lifestyles common totheir social group and modify them in standard ways as theyage, lifecycle norms impart a certain order to the accumulationof assets and liabilities, which enables people to ‘do’lifecycle saving via habitual thinking. After laying out theargument conceptually, the paper provides empirical evidenceon the role of conformity in lifecycle saving and discussesits contribution to the current low saving rate in the USA.     

从经济理性到有限理性:经济学研究理性假设的演变

"经济理性"是经济学的传统研究假设,却因背离现实而受到质疑.基于行为人稀缺的心理资源和系统固有的不确定性而产生的"有限理性"正逐步取代"经济理性"成为经济学研究的理性假设.不同的理性观点可以从决策的视角得到系统地解释和比较.并且,随着理性假设的演变,经济行为的决策标准也相应从单一静态最优向多元动态平衡转变.     

Normative ecological rationality: normative rationality in the fast-and-frugal-heuristics research program

The purpose of this paper is to examine the normative interpretation of the fast-and-frugal research program and in particular to contrast it with the normative reading of rational choice theory and behavioral economics. The ecological rationality of fast-and-frugal heuristics is admittedly a form of normative naturalism (Gigerenzer and Sturm 2012) – it derives what agents “ought” to do from that which “is” ecologically rational – and the paper will examine how this differs from the normative rationality associated with rational choice theory. I will also attempt to assess the relative adequacy of normative ecological rationality.     

Bounded rationality: the two cultures

Research on bounded rationality has two cultures, which I call ‘idealistic’ and ‘pragmatic’. Technically, the cultures differ on whether they (1) build models based on normative axioms or empirical facts, (2) assume that people's goal is to optimize or to satisfice, (3) do not or do model psychological processes, (4) let parameters vary freely or fix them, (5) aim at explanation or prediction and (6) test models from one or both cultures. Each culture tells a story about people's rationality. The story of the idealistic culture is frustrating, with people in principle being able to know what they should do, but in practice systematically failing to do it. This story makes one hide in books for intellectual solace or surrender to the designs of someone smarter. The story of the pragmatic culture is empowering: If people are educated to use the right tool in the right situation, they do well.     

Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the cyclicality of the household saving to household disposable income ratio for a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1969–2012. We find evidence that the household saving ratio is countercyclical. We empirically investigate whether the determinants of saving suggested by a standard buffer stock model of saving can explain this finding. The three main determinants of household saving implied by such a model (i.e., unemployment risk, household wealth and credit constraints) have a significant impact on the household saving ratio while their combined effect completely offsets its countercyclicality. The saving regression results are robust to potential endogeneity of the regressors, to making use of a reduced sample size that leaves out the period of the Great Recession, and to the one-by-one addition of variables suggested by alternative theories that also predict a countercyclical saving ratio.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Life cycle and housing decisions: a comparison by age cohorts

The use of decomposition methodologies when the involved variable is continuous is not common in the literature. This article uses this methodology, together with other decomposition methodologies, to explain how age can influence on housing decisions. In particular, we use Spanish data to study whether the age of the householder plays a significant role in influencing household decisions with respect to housing tenure and demand. From the comparison of housing decisions between different groups of households classified by the age of the householders, we conclude that age plays the primary role in explaining the gap between households regarding tenure choice, while it shares its importance with other covariates of the model in the housing demand decision.     

Sectoral Structure and Change: Insights from Marx

ABSTRACT

At the time of Marx’s birth two centuries ago, the Industrial Revolution was well underway, and the economic and social changes which it wrought formed the backdrop to Marx’s own ideas. The advanced economies of the world were then industrialising, yet today most countries are deindustrialising. What light can a Marxist analysis shed on sectoral structure, sectoral specificity and sectoral change in the early 21st century? A Marxist approach is distinctive and valuable in how it approaches these sectoral issues, and the following interrelated aspects are discussed here: classifying activities in the first instance according to position in the circuit of capital rather than by sectors; a non-phenomenological approach to classifying activities; a non-physicalist conception of commodities; underscoring the extent of intra-sectoral heterogeneity; recognising the importance of manufacturing and of industrialisation; and implications for analysing changes in sectoral structure.     

Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: evidence from Italy

I empirically investigate precautionary savings under liquidity constraints in Italy using a unique indicator of subjective variance of income growth to measure the strength of the precautionary motive for saving, and a variety of survey-based indicators of liquidity constraints. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. First of all, I attempt to differentiate between the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from the one due to liquidity constraints using an endogenous switching regression approach, which allows me to cope with endogeneity issues associated with sample splitting techniques. Second, I move one step further with respect to previous studies on consumption behaviour by taking explicitly expected liquidity constraints into account. I eventually found the precautionary motive for savings to be stronger for those households who face binding constraints, or expect constraints to be binding in the future. Indeed, a complementarity relation exists between precautionary savings and liquidity constraints.     

Austrian theories of entrepreneurship: Insights from complexity theory

This paper examines various Austrian theories of entrepreneurship through the lens of complexity theory, more specifically via the concept of a dancing fitness landscape. Problems in many fields (including economics) can be characterized as attempting to find the highest peak on a fitness landscape (which corresponds to an efficient or optimal resource allocation). A rugged fitness landscape is one characterized by many peaks and troughs, while a dancing fitness landscape is one where the peaks and troughs change over time due either to exogenous or endogenous activity. I argue that several key disagreements among Austrian economists can be better understood through the metaphor of a fitness landscape. The implications of this insight for various branches of Austrian economics are also considered. This study is timely as radical Austrian views are starting to percolate into business schools leading to increased debate among management scholars about the precise nature of the entrepreneurial process (Chiles et al. 2007; Sarasvathy and Dew 2008; Alvarez et al. 2010).