Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

Revision der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen 2014

The upcoming revision of the national accounts of EU countries will result in a pronounced increase in gross domestic product (GDP). The extended definition of investment, in particular the inclusion of research and development expenditures, will enlarge the capital stock and GDP. This will have implications for the analysis of the business cycle, income distribution and for growth accounting.     

GDP growth determinants and foreign direct investment causality: the case of Iran

Given the economic conditions in Iran and the need to accelerate its economic growth, there is a rising interest in examining the variables that fuel its GDP growth. The scant literature on economic growth in Iran is composed of only a few scholarly studies that investigate this nation's GDP growth. However, none of these studies has examined the causality between GDP growth and its determining elements. The purpose of this study is: (1) to determine the economic variables that contribute to Iran's GDP per capita growth over time, and (2) to examine the causality between foreign direct investment and the relevant variables that are included in the model. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. The results indicate that: (1) the major determinants of GDP per capita growth in Iran are value added growth and domestic investment growth; (2) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and GDP per capita growth in Iran in either direction; and (3) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and value added growth in Iran in either direction.     

THE UNEQUALIZING EFFECTS OF ICT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

We analyse the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) on levels and growth of per capita GDP in two different ways: (1) by treating ICT as a specific type of physical capital and as a variable that helps to correct for quality existing physical capital measures, and (2) by considering that telephone lines, personal computers and internet hosts are ‘bottleneck‐reducing’ factors that increase the productivity of labour by making easier the diffusion and processing of (non‐rivalrous and almost non‐excludable) knowledge. We compare the relative significance of the two hypotheses in level and growth estimates and find that, when separately taken, both of them improve upon the classical Mankiw et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107 (1992), pp. 407–437)/Islam (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110 (1995), pp. 1127–1169) framework. These findings show that our approach captures dimensions of time‐varying country‐specific technological progress that previous approaches in the literature did not take into account.     

Finanzierung von intelligenten Verkehrssystemen

Recently the importance of public investment in the EU digital internal market has been increasingly stressed. The paper analyses how government subsidies for ICT investments should be assessed from an economic point of view. The focus is on the limits of financing ICT via usage-dependent user fees in broadband communication systems and in global navigation satellite systems. Both have the character of a General Purpose Technology (GPT), and they form the basis for a multitude of applications that are important in the “App economy”.     

Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment,Skill and Wage Structure

Using newly constructed data for 88 Canadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in Canada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, Canada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. China's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology (ICT) capital is rising fast and among low R&D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and China are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from Mexico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP, in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.     

Investment in Transition Economies

Summary

All centrally planned economies suffered from overinvestment. Due to low capital productivity, reasonable growth rates in output could be maintained only with high investment/GDP ratios. Nevertheless, the sharp reduction in investment during transformational recession and its slow growth during subsequent recovery are viewed as negative phenomena, since transition economies offer numerous opportunities to increase output with relatively small targeted investment.

This paper seeks to develop and test two major hypotheses. The first one explains the behavior of aggregate investment during transition: we find that changes in external financing (current account balance), in the government budget deficit and in the institutional capacity of the state (as measured by the share of government revenues in GDP) explain up to 75% of the variations in investment/GDP ratios during transition, while the progress in reforms (cumulative liberalisation index) and in privatisation (share of the private sector in GDP) do not matter a great deal. With respect to sources of investment financing, there is some evidence that better investment performance is supported by budgetary funds, by credits to the private sector and by the strength of the stock market, whereas foreign aid is a substitute rather than a complement (i.e., it is negatively related to investment) and the inflow of foreign direct investment is not important.

The second hypothesis deals with the impact of investment on economic performance as measured by changes in GDP during transition: we find that differences in performance arc, in great part, associated not with investment patterns, but with varying marginal capital productivity. The latter in turn is determined mainly by differing magnitudes of restructuring required in various countries, i.e., by the distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns inherited from central planning, and by the institutional capacity of the state (as measured by the share of shadow economy and government revenues in GDP). The degree of liberalisation in this case appears to be a relatively important determinant of capital productivity, while the rates of inflation are not.     

US affiliates,infrastructure and growth: A simultaneous investigation of critical mass

A structural model of a small open economy is developed that demonstrates how the impacts of infrastructure on GDP, factor productivity, and multinational industrial location can be decomposed into direct and indirect general equilibrium effects. The model is then estimated on a panel of 28 countries and it is found that schools and telecommunications have a positive and significant direct effect on domestic growth and that there are greater marginal returns for countries with higher investment levels; a result that is suggestive of a critical mass story. However, once spurious correlation of firm location and the indirect effects through wages and multinational activity are accounted for, the total effects of telecommunications and schools on growth are found to be higher than direct estimates would suggest. The results reveal important implications for understanding the channels through which infrastructure influences growth.     

A “New Approach” to Standards and Consumer Protection

As consumer use of information and communication technology (ICT) products grows, the importance of ICT standards in consumer markets also grows. While standards for manufactured products were once developed at the national level in formal standards bodies, standards for ICT products today are more likely to be developed by informal standards bodies that target global markets, creating new challenges for national consumer protection laws. As part of the process of creating a single market, the EU developed an innovative and successful form of “coregulation” known as the “New Approach” that coordinated the work of legislators and standards developers to reduce technical barriers to trade in the internal market. In order to protect consumer interests in markets for ICT products effectively, another “New Approach” is needed to coordinate the work of global ICT standard-developing organizations with the goals of national and regional consumer protection laws, but the institutional challenges facing such a strategy are daunting. The French DADVSI legislation represents progress in this direction; further progress may be possible by adopting “better regulation” strategies.

The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal

The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to analyse the macroeconomic effects. Our assessment is that trade with the EU, especially in services, would be more costly after Brexit. This would be likely to have adverse effects on living standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government's proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 3% lower per head than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. If the UK were to stay in a customs union with the EU, or if the Irish backstop position was to be invoked, there would still be a hit to GDP per capita of 2%. These estimates represent our considered view of the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal, but they are themselves uncertain as there is no historical precedent of a country leaving a major trading block such as the EU.     

German Investment in Ireland and in the Central and East European Countries

The accession of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to the EU is expected by many to lead to the diversion of foreign direct investment towards the CEECs and away from other EU countries. The following paper focuses on the investigation of the internationalisation strategies and location choices of German multinational corporations (MNCs) in manufacturing against the background of growing regional economic integration, and particularly the fifth EU enlargement. It draws on the findings of a case study and interview results covering three German MNCs and their location choices for investment in both Ireland and the new EU member countries from Eastern Europe. This research project has been co-funded by the RIA in Dublin and DAAD. A first version of this work was presented at the September 2005 Irish Academy of Management Annual Conference in Galway.     

Exploiting ICT potential in service firms in transition economies

Service industries are the most intensive users of information-communication technology (ICT) and some developed countries have already displayed noticeable productivity gains due to ICT use in services. The pattern of intensive use of ICT in services tends to be replicated in transition economies, however the evidence of ICT impacts on growth and productivity is lacking at the aggregate and industry level owing to deficient data and methodological problems. To overcome some of the problems in estimating the effects of ICT use we pursue firm-level analysis and apply production function approach to estimate the impact of ICT on the performance of service firms in Slovenia. The results suggest that service firms are more intensive ICT users than manufacturing firms and that ICT use significantly influences the productivity of service firms. The positive impact of ICT use on productivity applies to all service firms irrespective of their size. The links are stronger for service firms with above average ICT use. Due to the absence of data on complementary expenditures for training and organisational change related to ICT adoption the results might overemphasise the effects of ICT investment.     

Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union

We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of 22 EU countries using two complementary approaches. First, we employ time‐series stationarity tests of current account balance‐to‐GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance that stabilises the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance in eight countries, NIIP in five countries and NED in 10 countries, whereas there is evidence of a lack of sustainability in five debtor nations and three creditor nations. Both approaches are consistent with each other given the relationship between flows and stocks, the existence of structural breaks, and valuation effects via exchange rate and interest rate changes.     

基础设施投资与经济增长的相关性分析

根据我国1996—2008年间的基础设施投资与GDP变动统计数据,计算出的相关系数和回归分析结果。表明GDP总量与基础设施投资总额之间的相关性较强。由此可以判断：我国今后2年4万亿元的投资对GDP增长产生巨大的拉动力。但1996—2008年间我国基础设施投资增长率与GDP增长率之间的相关系数和回归分析结果,则表明相关性较弱。其原因在于GDP增长率相对于投资增长率的滞后性、消费需求增速缓慢、出口需求锐减等方面。     

城乡居民收入差距对居民消费影响的实证分析

回归分析证明了改革开放以来城乡居民收入差距过大导致整个消费水平越来越低,增加城市居民的收入不能提高我国居民的整体消费水平;城镇居民收入较高,相对于农村居民来说边际消费倾向要低于农村居民的边际消费倾向,如果能增加农村居民的收入,则会提高全国的消费总量及转变农村的消费结构。     

The Causal Relationship Between Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976–99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity.     

How Strategic Purchasing Orientation and Transformational Leadership Impact Performance: The Mediating Role of Information and Communication Technologies

Purpose: Purchasing orientation (greater efficiency, use of information and communication technologies; ICT) is becoming an underlying part of company strategy in an increasing number of business organizations. Transformational leadership by purchasing managers is also emerging as a tool to generate more intense and effective use of ICT and as a means of enhancing performance. The present research pursues 2 goals: firstly to explore how the strategic nature of the purchasing function and transformational leadership of purchasing managers impacts ICT use intensity and purchase efficiency, and secondly to pinpoint how the use of ICT affects purchase performance.

Methodology/approach: The empirical work is based on an analysis of the information provided by a sample of 130 Spanish firms. Empirical verification of the proposed model was carried out through partial least squares analysis.

Findings: Findings show that the strategic importance which management attaches to the purchasing function impacts the intensive use of ICT. However, the transformational leadership exercised by purchasing managers proves relevant in achieving greater cost efficiency and coordination with suppliers.

Research implications: This work has sought to merge as determinants of efficiency both strategic aspects of the purchasing function in the firm as well as managerial aspects of said function (manager’s transformational leadership and the use of ICT). This research breaks new ground by empirically comparing the relationship between the strategic nature of the purchasing function in a firm and intensity of ICT use, a relation which has been the subject of very little inquiry and for which the mediating role of ICT in the link between strategic orientation and purchase performance is brought to light.

Originality/value/contribution: The study makes a twofold contribution. Firstly, the present research seeks to bring together strategic aspects of the purchasing function in the firm as well as other management factors involved in said function (managers’ transformational leadership and use of ICT) as drivers of efficiency. In this sense, the findings point to the important role played by the purchasing manager vis-à-vis the strategic vision of the purchasing function in achieving cost efficiency and coordination with suppliers. Secondly, this research breaks new ground by empirically verifying the link between the strategic nature of the purchasing function in a firm and intensity of ICT use, a link which has been the focus of scant attention and for which we underpin the mediating role of ICT in the relationship between strategic orientation and purchase performance.     

欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响

本文运用面板数据的方法,研究了欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响,结论表明,欧盟在华直接投资促进了中国对欧盟各成员国的进出口贸易,但影响较小,影响中、欧贸易的主要因素是中国和欧盟各成员国的经济实力(GDP)。这表明欧盟在华投资企业的市场战略主要是针对中国广阔的国内市场的。文章最后部分对如何促进欧盟对华直接投资和扩大中、欧贸易提出了建议。     

Imbalances,Inequality and Growth — Rethinking Growth Policies for Europe

Positive GDP growth is important, but how much GDP growth we need and how the growth of income should be distributed are equally important questions. This explains why (for reasons of distribution and environmental sustainability) a movement has developed over the last ten years to go "beyond GDP". Progress has been made in measuring the social and environmental impact of growth, which has helped in the development of EU objectives like achieving smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.     

Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet — Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten

The German economy is experiencing a moderate recovery: GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent next year, and 1.6 percent in 2018. Over the course of the forecast period, capacity utilisation will be somewhat higher than in the longterm average. Nevertheless, the contribution of corporate investment to the current upswing is minimal. The global economy is generating only minor stimulating effects, which means that exports are increasing only moderately. The extremely low long-term interest rates are likely to reflect not only the current monetary policy, but also low growth expectations. All of these factors are inhibiting investment into equipment, and thus, consumption continues to be the main growth driver. Private consumption is benefiting from the sustained increase in employment; the high expenditures for accommodating and integrating the refugees is still having a strong impact on public spending. Residential construction is getting a boost from the low interest rates.