Evaluation of Selected Methods of Classification for the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The portfolio analysis allows a complex analysis of all the securities and it is connected with diversification of the portfolios risk. The problem that arises before the portfolios will be constructed and is connected with database of securities—what generally simplifies selection securities to portfolios. In a way of building database can be useful a taxonomic methods. The main aim of the paper is researching stability classifications for proposing methods and verification how different or similar they are. Such an approach in analysis of classification stability gives more information about researching companies and their financial or economic stability. It also gives information about the Polish capital market. In addition, such analyses are useful in making investment decisions, particularly in selection companies to portfolio. Presented at the Fifty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 10–14, 2004, Lisbon, Portugal.     

股指期货的推出对现货市场影响的实证研究——基于新华富时A50的分析

股指期货的推出对现货市场波动性的影响一直备受学术界的关注,本文通过GARCH模型,分析了新加坡证券交易所推出的新华富时A50股指期货对沪深300指数的影响,发现股指期货的推出轻微地增大了现货市场的波动性,同时信息对现货市场的冲击更强;通过TARCH/EGARCH模型发现,股指期货的推出增大了现货市场的非对称效应。     

Dividend-Driven Trading Strategies: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

This study presents an analysis of dividend-driven trading strategies based on dividend yield growth effects in the Polish stock market in the years 1994–2004. Results indicate that the dividend yield growth portfolios were capable of beating the market in the entire sample period. Their performance, however, was not consistent over time and the highest returns were obtained during final years. Empirical findings based on the analysis of different types of portfolios demonstrate the importance of dividends as a source of significant fundamental information items from stock market companies. At the same time, they show that a dividend investment strategy for the Polish stock market is most successful when the selection of stocks for the dividend yield growth portfolios is subject to further restrictions, most notably concerning company size.

中国股指期货对现货市场联动效应的实证研究——基于沪深300仿真指数期货数据的分析

股指期货的推出对现货市场波动性的影响一直以来备受学术界的关注。目前的研究表明,长期内股指期货对现货市场波动性影响不明显,短期内有助推作用。本文基于中金所推出的沪深300指数仿真期货对沪深300指数的影响进行了分析,发现股指期货的推出对现货市场的波动性没有较大影响,但增大了现货市场的非对称效应;研究结果不能证明股灾时期股指期货对现货产生瀑布效应。     

Detecting Some Dynamic Properties of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

Financial prices and returns have been the subject of empirical and theoretical analysis for many years, and their dynamic properties and other characteristics are still of interest. Many different tools have been applied to describe financial markets. The presented paper is addressed to examine the euro/dollar exchange rate and the related financial returns in the context of detecting exact and stochastic unit roots, and in the consequence, modelling them using time varying parameters model. The estimated STUR models are compared with standard ARMA-GARCH representations. We also examine causal relationships in the Granger sense. Upon the results of causality testing, some ADL-GARCH models are built, which are further used to examine their forecasting performance.     

Trading imbalances and the law of one price

We study trading and prices of Chinese (mainland)/Hong Kong dual-listed shares. Relative prices can diverge by a factor of two and exhibit significant variation over time. Order imbalances explain contemporaneous changes in relative prices at daily and weekly frequencies.     

Corporate Governance and Financial Performance of Companies in Poland

The research presented in the paper is aimed at examining the relationship between the level of corporate governance and the financial performance of listed companies in Poland. The corporate governance degree is expressed by the outcomes of a rating of 2003 performed by Polish Corporate Governance Forum. The attempted models are of ordered multinomial type. Endogenous variable represents the rating outcome (A−, B+, B, B−, and C+), while the exogenous variables include various financial indicators evaluated on the basis of the 2002 financial statements. The estimated ordered logit models show that the level of corporate governance of companies in Poland is associated with their ability to cope with the financial distress, as expressed by the degree of liquidity, profitability and the financial leverage variables.     

The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns

This paper examines empirically whether the expected and unexpected components of monetary policy have nonlinear impacts on the dynamics of REIT returns. Empirical results find the nonlinear response of REIT returns to expected and unexpected components of monetary policy. The unexpected component of monetary policy plays a more prominent role in influencing REIT returns than does the expected component of monetary policy. Specifically, unexpected contractionary monetary policy has a significantly adverse impact on REIT returns, and the adverse effect in a bust market is stronger than in a boom market. In addition, the unexpected monetary policy will also affect the boom-bust dynamics of REIT returns through its effect on the time-varying transition probability matrix. The tightening of the expected and unexpected components of monetary policy will enhance the probability that the REIT market will stay in the bust regime.     

Small investment and large returns: Terrorism, media and the economy

The study investigates the role of the media in the impact of terrorism on the economy. A unique data set of the newspaper articles that reported terrorist attacks during 2002 is used to evaluate their impact on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. An econometric analysis is performed in order to understand how a newspaper decides to cover a terrorist attack, i.e. the number of articles, positioning of articles, whether to include photos and the size of headlines. It was found that media coverage is an important channel through which terrorism produces economic damage. The findings also showed that the economic damage caused by terrorist attacks increases monotonically with the amount of media coverage. It was also found that the economic impact of the media coverage diminishes over time.     

建立商品期货持仓风险指数的设想

期货投资是一种风险度很高的金融投资方式,由于中国在很多大宗商品上尚未取得定价话语权,因此中国期货市场的价格波动受外盘的影响很大。对于持仓过夜的投资者而言,一旦持仓方向错误,就会遭受巨大的经济损失。有鉴于此,提出了建立适合中国国情的定量化商品期货持仓风险指数的设想,以帮助投资者认清各品种持仓过夜的市场风险,做到理性投资。     

Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach

This paper presents a capital asset pricing model‐based threshold quantile regression model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic specification to examine relations between excess stock returns and “abnormal trading volume”. We employ an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method with asymmetric Laplace distribution to study six daily Dow Jones Industrial stocks. The proposed model captures asymmetric risk through market beta and volume coefficients, which change discretely between regimes. Moreover, they are driven by market information and various quantile levels. This study finds that abnormal volume has significantly negative effects on excess stock returns under low quantile levels; however, there are significantly positive effects under high quantile levels. The evidence indicates that each market beta varies with different quantile levels, capturing different states of market conditions.     

股指期货套期保值效率比较研究——基于沪深300股指期货与新华富时A5指数期货

文章基于我国股票型基金十大重仓股构建投资组合,并利用沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的日数据对这两种股指期货的套期保值效率进行比较研究,以探究两者在套期保值效率上的差异和造成差异产生的原因。在利用OLS、VECM和ECM-BGRACH等静态和动态套期保值模型和基于风险最小化的套期保值绩效指标对沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的套期保值效率进行研究后发现,在静态最优套保比、时变最优套保比和套期保值绩效指标的比较中,新华富时A50指数期货都要优于沪深300股指期货。这种套期保值效率上的差异主要来自于两个金融工具间的合约与交易规则的差别。建议通过设立适当时间的晚间电子盘交易,并允许金融机构在规定的份额内进行期指套利交易,以提升沪深300股指期货在套期保值市场功能上的效率。     

Perpetual learning and stock return predictability

The stock market is evolving, and investors are learning. This paper investigates the role of perpetual learning in excess return forecasts. We find that perpetual learning usually delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average.