技术进步的测定方法——兼评Tinbergen测定法和Solow测定法

Tinbergen 测定法首届诺贝尔经济学奖获得者 J.Tinbergen 教授是利用生产函数作为框架,配合时间系列资料以测定技术进步的最早的经济学家之一。他使用了 Cobb-Douglas 生产函数作为测定技术进步的理论框架。他在其理论框架中一开始就“单刀直入”地假定不存在非中性技术变动(当然这个假定并不恰当,特别是在技术决定的资本集约度变化较大及要素市场不稳定的情况下就更不能作出这一假定),然后在这个假定下来测定 Hicks 中性技术进步。P.H.Douglas在提出其生产函数形式时(1928年),假设在所考虑的期间里技术是固定不变的,因而劳动生产率的增加是唯一地由资本代替劳动的结果。因此,劳动生产率与资本劳动投入数量比之间有下列关系:     

政府技术标准规制对经济增长的实证研究

本文考察国家标准组织制定的标准(GB)与我国经济发展之间的关系,通过估计1979～1996年之间"投入"应用于经济活动的GB目录总量,从而度量GB的"产出",由此对我国经济增长的生产函数给出估计。在一个所谓的协整框架的基础上,发现劳动生产率、资本与劳动力投入比率以及内生性技术进步GB目录之间构成了一个具有统计显著性的惟一的协整向量。加入技术标准对经济增长贡献的技术进步因素后,从1979～1996年的"节约劳动型技术进步"经由"中性技术进步"逐步转向1990～2006年"节约资本型技术进步";并且技术标准的产出弹性增长较大。这显示技术标准对技术进步的作用在所有样本点上是不相同的。     

中国工业部门的能源替代研究——基于对ALLEN替代弹性模型的修正

本文针对以往用于估计要素替代率的经济模型存在的不足,以超对数成本函数和不变替代弹性为基础,把MES模型与技术进步和产出效应结合起来,首次估算了中国工业部门能源与资本及劳动之间的绝对替代弹性和净替代弹性(相对替代率),发现劳动与能源之间存在明显的替代关系,而资本与能源之间的替代关系呈现不确定性,即资本与能源之间呈现间或的互补关系。此外,实证研究还发现技术进步和产出效应在过去的近30年中促进了劳动对能源的替代。本文最后根据实证研究,对中国工业部门的能源中长期发展战略提出相关政策建议。     

发挥企联作用协调三方关系

劳动关系三方协调机制是当今世界上市场经济国家协调和处理政府、雇主和员工三者之间矛盾和关系的具有社会功能的组织和制度。三方协调机制坚持三方性原则,加强三方协调与沟通,发展社会对话与合作。在协调劳动关系、调节社会矛盾、保持社会稳定、促进经济发展和社会进步中发挥着越来越重要的作用。     

东南亚经济缺乏技术进步支撑

北京大学教授刘遵义通过比较分析后指出,在劳动投入、资本投入和技术进步贡献这三个决定经济增长的指标中,发达国家如日、美等国技术进步的贡献所占比重较大,而东南亚国家则是资本和劳动投入占的比重大。由此可见,东南亚经济的增长急需发挥技术进步的推动作用东南亚经济缺乏技术进步支撑@静思     

企业劳动关系的若干问题分析

随着我国经济社会的迅速进步,我国的企业管理水平同样得到了全方位的发展。企业的良好发展扩大了劳动用工规模,为我国劳动者就业提供大量岗位。企业劳动关系如果无法维护好劳动关系的和谐稳定,势必成为企业实现战略目标的制约因素。目前,我国大多数中小企业劳动关系管理水平的提升速度无法追赶上人员规模的扩张速度,存在管理方式不够合理、运行机制不够完善、劳资关系无法协调等。     

技术进步与生产函数的非中性

一、生产函数和技术进步过程 生产函数是描述经济系统中各种投入要素同产出之间的函数关系。假设在生产单一产品的封闭经济系统中同产出有关的投入要素有三种：有形资本Ｋ（ｔ）（大多是物质资本），劳动力Ｌ（ｔ）和技术进步度量因子Ａ（ｔ）。这样一来，一般的生产函数可以表示为： Ｙ（ｔ）＝ Ｆ［Ｋ（ｔ），Ｌ（ｔ），Ａ（ｔ），ｔ］（１） 由于在下面的分析中，技术进步因子要同其它投入要素结合，我们先研究仅包含资本和劳动作为投入要素的生产函数性质。一般假设仅同两个变量有关的生产函数满足以下条件，这就是古典生产函数所满足的…     

资本呈指数增长时技术进步的测算

改革开放以来,我国一些行业或一些地区资本的投入增长很快,相比之下,劳动的投入增长缓慢。本文以中央部、委出版社书刊印刷企业“六五”、“七五”期间技术进步测算为例,研究资本呈指数增长时的技术进步测算问题。     

中国R&D人力资源结构与经济增长的关系研究

技术进步是经济长期增长的源泉,而研究与发展活动是整个科技活动的核心。文章利用单位根检验、协整检验和误差纠正模型,基于中国1991-2010年的年度时间序列数据的实证研究发现,应用研究人力资源投入与经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,基础研究人力资源投入和试验发展人力资源投入与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,不存在短期关系。但格兰杰因果检验表明,试验发展人力资源投入与经济增长之间不存在因果关系,基础研究人力资源投入与经济增长之间存在前者到后者的单向因果关系。     

稳定就业指导意见出台

国家人力资源和社会保障部网站公布消息称：为应对目前紧张就业形势，加强劳动关系协调工作，经国家协调劳动关系三方（人力资源和社会保障部、中华全国总工会、中国企业联合会／中国企业家协会）会议研究，提出《关于应对当前经济形势稳定劳动关系的指导意见》。     

The Taylor principle fights back,Part II

The existing literature holds that the Taylor principle often leads to indeterminacy in New Keynesian models that allow for capital accumulation and limited asset market participation. This conclusion is special, however, to the case of continuous full employment. When the assumption of perfect wage flexibility is relaxed very slightly so that the labor market clears quickly but not instantaneously, determinacy is the norm. The threat of indeterminacy is limited to a tiny, irrelevant corner of the parameter space where the elasticity of labor supply is unusually high and real wage adjustment is unbelievably fast. Everywhere else, the Taylor principle guarantees a unique rational expectations equilibrium. The dramatic difference in results reflects the sensitivity of the monetary transmission mechanism to the speed of adjustment in the labor market.     

Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?

This paper presents firm-level evidence on the change of the employment share and the wage premium of non-manual workers in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of the aggregate wage premium and employment share hides offsetting disaggregate forces: technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, whereas demand changes associated with trade reduce the relative demand for skills. Moreover, it is within the class of non-manual workers that most of the action takes place: the wage premium and employment share of executives rise substantially, while those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. Finally, we find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labor market dynamics: exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the conventional view that the labor market is “rigid” due to labor market institutions.     

The Spatial Effects of Wage or Property Tax Differentials, and Local Government Choice between Tax Instruments

This paper considers the spatial effects (on wages, employment, and business capital as functions of location) of a localized differential in source-based wage tax rates or business property tax rates between (for example) a central city and the surrounding suburbs. A simple model is used in which business production uses only labor and capital inputs. Consumers have fixed residential locations but may commute to work. Wage and property tax differentials have effects that are similar in some ways but different in other ways. If given a choice, a local government would choose to set its business property tax rate equal to zero and use only a wage tax.     

Outsourcing, labor market pooling, and labor contracts

This paper considers the interaction between input sharing and labor market pooling in urban areas. In particular, it examines the impact of the size of a city and business risks on the organizational structures of firms located in urban agglomerations, and it also discusses the impact of organizational structure on incentives to insure workers against income risks. It is shown that manufacturing firms suffer from a coordination game in their decision to outsource production. The existence of idiosyncratic risks causes manufacturers to refrain from outsourcing. The incentives to offer wage and employment protection to workers are more pronounced when manufacturers outsource the production of their inputs to a local market, which mitigates the impact of labor market pooling.     

Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?

Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL WAGE CURVES IN JAPAN 1981–2001

There is evidence in many countries of an inverse relationship between the real wages paid to workers and the unemployment rate in their local labor market, a so-called wage curve. However, the evidence to date for Japan has been rather limited. In this paper, we estimate wage curves for Japan using pooled cross-section time-series data from 1981 until 2001. The presence of a wage curve is confirmed. The wage curve has become slightly more elastic after the bubble economy of the 1980s than it was in the pre-bubble and mid-bubble period. The unemployment elasticity of pay is greater for males than for females. We also estimate regional wage curves using time-series data. The male wage curve elasticity is larger in the northern regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku and the western region of Shikoku, while it is smaller in the central regions of Hokuriku, Tokai and Kinki.     

The impact of minimum wages on wages,work and poverty in Nicaragua

In this paper we use an individual- and household-level panel data set to study the impact of changes in legal minimum wages on a host of labor market outcomes including: a) wages and employment, b) transitions of workers across jobs (in the covered and uncovered sectors) and employment status (unemployment and out of the labor force), and c) transitions into and out of poverty. We find that changes in the legal minimum wage affect only those workers whose initial wage (before the change in minimum wages) is close to the minimum. For example, increases in the legal minimum wage lead to significant increases in the wages and decreases in employment of private covered sector workers who have wages within 20% of the minimum wage before the change, but have no significant impact on wages in other parts of the distribution. The estimates from the employment transition equations suggest that the decrease in covered private sector employment is due to a combination of layoffs and reductions in hiring. Most workers who lose their jobs in the covered private sector as a result of higher legal minimum wages leave the labor force or go into unpaid family work; a smaller proportion find work in the public sector. We find no evidence that these workers become unemployed.Our analysis of the relationship between the minimum wage and household income finds: a) increases in legal minimum wages increase the probability that a poor worker's family will move out of poverty, and b) increases in legal minimum wages are more likely to reduce the incidence of poverty and improve the transition from poor to non-poor if they impact the head of the household rather than the non-head; this is because the head of the household is less likely than a non-head to lose his/her covered sector employment due to a minimum wage increase and because those heads that do lose covered sector employment are more likely to go to another paying job than are non-heads (who are more likely to go into unpaid family work or leave the labor force).     

Investment, expropriation, and unionization

In this paper, I examine an economy where output is produced from labor, capital and public services, and where firms and labor unions bargain over labor conditions and lobby the government over union bargaining power and public services. I compare three institutional cases: (a) competitive wage settlement, (b) bargaining over wages and employment, and (c) bargaining over wages only. I show that in cases (a) and (b) the government expropriates investment rents, but right-to-manage bargaining (c) protects investors from this expropriation.      

技术进步使劳动力商品价值上升的机理与实证分析

一般商品成本随着技术进步、劳动生产率提高而降低,本文在机理与实证上论述了劳动力商品价值随着技术进步而提高,在此理论下,工资刚性、工资国民差异是必然出现的经济现象。     

Regional factor specificity,wage differential and resource allocation

We developed a two-region, rigid-wage model incorporating features of a region-specific factor (in addition to the primary inputs) and an inter-regional wage differential. While full employment of capital is always maintained, labor, however, is subject to unemployment in both regions because of wage rigidity. The model was deployed to examine the effects of a change in the specific factor and a non-specific factor on regional resource allocation, output production and total employment. It is demonstrated that an increase in the factor specific to region 1 will result in a reallocation of resources from the second region to the first region and a decrease in the capital rentals in both regions. Thus, the output production will expand in region 1 at the expense of that in region 2. However, total employment in the nation may increase or decrease depending on whether or not the production in the second region is relatively capital intensive.