The Tax Cut as an Anti-Inflationary Measure*

‘…the Government is convinced that the right course at this juncture, and the best contribution it can make to the solution of the current problems of our economy, is a bold policy of reducing taxes—particularly those taxes which are levied directly upon individuals and upon business. We believe that this is the best form of assistance we can give in the attack on costs. Essentially, the cost problem is one to be solved by greater efforts and greater efficiency on the part of both labour and management. By reducing taxes and so making wages and profits more worth earning, the Government can provide an inducement to greater effort and greater efficiency…’ ‘…the Government proposes to reduce taxes up to the limit of budget capacity after making provision for essential expenditures… and it has devised the tax reductions in a way that will ensure the maximum incentive to effort while making whenever possible a direct reduction in costs. At the same time it has taken care to ensure that the Budget for the year will balance; for there could be no thought at a time like this of adding to the volume of spending power by the process of deficit-financing… As in last year's Budget, the greatest weight should be given to reductions of Income Tax on individuals. By so doing the benefits will spread most widely and the greatest number of people will receive a further incentive to work and to save. The Government has, however, explored the possibilities of reducing indirect taxation, and it is proposing some very useful reductions in that field. Some of these reductions will make an important direct contribution to the problem of reducing costs’     

贫困度量指标

贫困是一种经济社会现象 ,一直伴随着人类社会的发展 ,世界各国研究贫困的学者们提出过各自不同的关于贫困的定义。汤森以及其他学者提出了贫困度量指标 ,Duclos在这些指标的基础上 ,引入了社会伦理判断这一规范因素 ,使得我们在评价贫因不能仅仅考虑贫困人口比率、平均贫困缺口、收入分配的不平等程度等客观因素 ,必须考虑不同社会或不同时期人们对贫困的主观判断。     

论一种度量通货膨胀的正确方法

劳工统计局的消费价格指数(CPI)和商务部的国民生产总值折算指数是两种常被引用而且是有报道价值的价格指数。这两种指数已经变成经济信息的重要部份而且常常被认为是经济学家所称的“价格水平”的操作对应物。因此,它们经常被用来作为作通货膨胀的测度,而且经常是货币政策与财     

Goodness of fit and outliers in cross-country demand systems

For a 10-good consumer demand system, the fit for 30 countries in the sample is compared with that for five countries outside the sample.     

关于知识测度理论与方法的思考

在知识经济的黎明时分,人们普通意识到知识在经济增长中的作用,而对知识本身的测度仍是知识经济研究领域悬而未决的问题。本文在分析界定知识内涵的基础之上,通过对前人研究成果的总结、分析与提炼,就如何测度知识存量、如何建立分类知识增长型模型提出了自己的一些研究思路。     

多维贫困测量及述评简

贫困的测量是各国贫困研究关注的焦点,测量方法随着对贫困概念认识的深化不断变化。如何科学合理地对多维贫困指数进行筛选,成为多维贫困分析和测量的关键。研究发现,非公理标准下的多维贫困指数具有算法简单、操作方便等优点,但缺陷在于各维度间相关性较强且权重分配具有主观性;公理化标准下的多维贫困指数,虽然在指数维度加总问题上存在异议,但满足了大部分公理的要求,且测量结果更稳健。     

资本增值计量问题研究

资本增值是货币资本和人力资本共同作用的结果,货币资本具有外生增值性,人力资本具有内生增值性。将资本增值分为货币资本增值、个别人力资本增值和集体人力资本增值,并可依赖于财务报表等数据资料计算得出其增值数量、比重和速度。人力资本增值可分为已实现人力资本增值和未实现人力资本增值,其中,未实现人力资本增值具有整体性、动态性、客观可计量性及可验证性特征。运用已实现人力资本增值推延出的计量模型具有实际意义。     

城市化的实质及其生态量度

城市化根源于现代人对美好物质生活的向往并选择了市场经济的道路,因而当今的城市化实质是工业化和市场化。城市化进程中的城市精神是与市场化和工业化相适应的现代西方文明倡导的民主自由精神及科学精神。大多数学者对城市化实质及其问题采取相对静态性的分析方法,从微观层面剖析了城市化进程中的生态问题,但忽略了城市化进程中的实质性问题,这个根本问题涉及不同于市场经济视域的生态视域的转换。以生态量度,当代的城市化进程呈现反生态的趋势,因而,要在生态视域转换下对城市化重新认识并定位。     

多维贫困测度方法研究

贫困应该表现为福利的缺乏,而不仅仅表现为收入或消费的不足.福利是一个多维概念.将贫困视为多维概念,要求在其程度的测度上对每个选中的福利变量均确定其阈值,即贫困表现为一个人有某个福利特征值小于相应的阈值.据此,文章讨论总结了多维贫困程度测度指标的性质,论证了该指标的可分解性,指出了该指标优于人文发展指数等指标的特点.最后,给出了该指标的一种具体表现形式,并利用该形式进行了国家间贫困程度的比较分析.     

Non-Bayesian Testing of a Stochastic Prediction

We propose a method to test a prediction of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian, non-parametric setting, a predicted distribution is tested using a realization of the stochastic process. A test associates a set of realizations for each predicted distribution, on which the prediction passes, so that if there are no type I errors, a prediction assigns probability 1 to its test set. Nevertheless, these test sets can be "small", in the sense that "most" distributions assign it probability 0, and hence there are "few" type II errors. It is also shown that there exists such a test that cannot be manipulated, in the sense that an uninformed predictor, who is pretending to know the true distribution, is guaranteed to fail on an uncountable number of realizations, no matter what randomized prediction he employs. The notion of a small set we use is category I, described in more detail in the paper.     

The firm as a subeconomy

This article explores the economic role of the firm in a marketeconomy. The analysis begins with a discussion and critiqueof the property rights approach to the theory of the firm asexposited in the recent work by Hart and Moore ('Property Rightsand the Nature of the Firm'). It is argued that the Hart-Mooremodel, taken literally, can only explain why individuals ownassets, but not why firms own assets. In particular, the logicof the model suggests that each asset should be free standingin order to provide maximal flexibility for the design of individualincentives. These implications run counter to fact. One of thekey features of the modern firm is that it owns essentiallyall the productive assets that it employs. Employees rarelyown any assets; they only contribute human capital. Why is theownership of assets clustered in firms? This article outlinesan answer based on the notion that control over physical assetsgives control over contracting rights to those assets. Metaphorically,the firm is viewed as a miniature economy, an 'island' economy,in which asset ownership conveys the CEO the power to definethe 'rules of the game', that is, the ability to restructurethe incentives of those that accept to do business on (or with)the island. The desire to regulate trade in this fashion stemsfrom contractual externalities characteristic of imperfect informationenvironments. The inability to regulate all trade through asingle firm stems from the value of exit rights as an incentiveinstrument and a tool to discipline the abuse of power.     

The Manager as a Person

Abstract Professor John Roemer has defended a future market socialist order. His model would encompass an egalitarian coupon market for the ownership of firm shares, a private sector for firms below a certain size, a system of public bank loans for the raising of capital, and an industrial policy of differential interest rates for various economic sectors. This paper argues that such a model would generate perverse incentives for firms, shareholders, public officials, and private entrepreneurs. It also argues that Roemer's contention that such a model would produce a more environmentally sensitive polity is problematic.     

试论保护企业商业秘密的措施

商业秘密是企业知识产权的重要组成部分,是企业重要的无形资产,对增强企业的市场竞争能力和企业的生存与发展具有重大影响。企业必须采取有效措施,切实加强商业秘密的保护和管理。我们应该切实做到该保密的信息能够保住,可以交流信息的还应该要交流,使商业秘密的保护工作和信息交流工作更好地协调,以适应建立社会主义市场经济体制和高新技术迅猛发展新形势的需要,为保持企业在市场中竞争优势作出努力。     

金融危机与企业风险应对措施

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机,减缓了世界经济发展的速度,同时,给我国的企业生产经营与生存发展带来了更多的不确定性影响因素。分析了此次金融危机产生的原因及其对我国的影响,以及金融危机下企业面临的主要风险因素,提出了风险企业的应对策略与措施。     

论产业结构优化升级的测度问题

大力调整经济结构,促进产业优化升级,是促进我国经济发展,提高经济增长质量及效益的根本措施,和经济工作的主要着力点,为此,本文从统计的角度对产业结构的演进行调整作了全面的探讨,特别是提出了较细腻的测度指标。     

The Beta as a Model for the Distribution of Earnings

Existing functional forms commonly used to represent the earnings distribution have weak micro‐foundations and relatively poor empirical goodness‐of‐fit. This paper presents an optimizing model of firm behaviour, which predicts the earnings distribution to follow the beta distribution of the second kind, a distribution known to provide a superior fit to empirical data.     

区域新型工业化综合评价指标体系研究

党的“十六大”和“十七大”报告都提出我国要走新型工业化道路,而测度区域新型工业化进程和质量是新型工业化问题研究中的一项重要课题。由于传统工业化与新型工业化具有不同的内涵和特征,因而传统工业化测度不能全面测度新型工业化的进程和质量。本文紧紧围绕新型工业化的内涵,试图构建新型工业化综合评价指标体系,以期为全面、客观、科学地测度区域新型工业化的实现程度和发展状态,进而为有关部门加强对工业经济的宏观管理与指导有所裨益。     

现金流量信息含量与财务困境预测

本文选取40家ST公司和80家非ST公司作为财务困境与非财务困境样本，考察了现金流量信息在财务困境预测中的信息含量．研究发现：(1)在我国上市公司陷入财务困境前1年，经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产报酬率，而在财务困境前2年，经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产周转率，因此经营性现金流量的相对信息含量具有一定的稳定性；(2)无论在财务困境前1年还是前2年，经营性现金流量在会计比率的基础上均具有显著的增量信息含量，而在财务困境前2年，投资性现金流量也具有增量信息含量，同时加入经营性现金流量和投资性现金流量可使模型总误判率最低。本文的研究结果为今后财务困境预测研究充分挖掘现金流量的预测价值提供了实证依据?     

试论当前政府外债管理体制及其改进措施

借用外债是利用外资的一个重要组成部份,而借用政府外债又在外债中起着举足轻重的作用,本文探讨了我国当前政府外债管理体制中存在的问题并提出相应的改进措施。     

基于资本资产定价模型盼控制权收益度量

基于资本资产定价模型角度,本文认为控制权收益为市场组合收益与控制权的风险溢价之和.进一步.利用中国沪市A股上市公司的数据样本,本文度量了A股上市公司控制权收益的大小以及研究了控制权收益的影响因素.研究发现,控制权收益的影响因素表现出很强的年度差异特征,并且影响控制权收益的程度表现出递减的趋势.