Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

国外玩具法规与我国玩具出口对策

文章结合我国玩具出口的实际情况,围绕促进企业了解和认识国外技术法规、努力提高技术水平、改进产品设计、提高产品质量这一目标,追踪和了解国际有关玩具的法规与标准""的动态,详细介绍了欧盟、美国、日本等国家和地区有关玩具的法律法规及检测标准,为企业应对技术性贸易壁垒、开拓新的玩具出口目标市场等方面提供有力的支持。     

Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?

Since early 1999, global trade liberalization has been sidelined as regional trade agreements (RTA) have become the preferred choice in East Asia. Does this shift suggest that global trade and welfare levels will be raised? In contrast to unilateral trade liberalization, RTAs may well cause both ‘trade creation’ and ‘trade diversion,’ so that their net effect on global trade and welfare becomes ambiguous. It is conjectured that RTAs among “natural trading partners” are more likely to be trade-creating, and less likely to divert trade from non-member countries, in which case welfare will improve. We find that if an RTA involves geographically proximate countries (measured either by distance or border), trade significantly increases among them. At the same time, geographical proximity also contributes to increasing trade between members and the rest of the world. We examine how existing or proposed East Asian trading blocs affect intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade and thereby global trade. We find that the East Asian RTAs are likely to create more trade among members without diverting trade from non-members.     

中国劳务输出对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用修正的贸易引力模型,应用中国与175个国家(地区)1995~2004年的面板数据,就中国劳务输出对进出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。对样本总体的回归结果表明,我国对外劳务输出与出口之间存在互补关系,劳务输出能够带动出口增加;而劳务输出对进口没有明显影响,二者之间呈现不显著的替代关系。对样本国家(地区)按区域和收入分组的回归结果与对样本总体的回归结果基本一致:我国对大多数国家(地区)的劳务输出与出口之间存在正相关关系,特别是外派劳务最为集中的东亚和南亚,劳务输出对出口有着明显的拉动作用;在进口方面,除拉美和加勒比海国家外,对其余各组国家(地区)的劳务输出与进口之间均为负相关关系,而这种关系通常不显著。     

后危机时代我国对外贸易发展问题研究

由于美国次贷危机及欧洲主权债务危机的持续影响,后危机时代的世界经济复苏势头缓慢,我国的对外贸易面临着巨大的挑战。本文介绍了当今我国对外贸易发展现状,重点分析了我国对外贸易发展存在的问题,指出了我国对外贸易发展的对策。     

Nature and determinants of productivity growth of foreign subsidiaries in Central and East European countries

The paper examines the determinants of productivity growth in foreign manufacturing subsidiaries in five Central and East European (CEE) countries by analysing patterns of control, nature of firms’ capabilities and firms’ market orientations. Building on the so-called ‘subsidiary development’ perspective, we show that productivity growth is determined jointly by corporate governance, production capability and market orientation variables. Within a dominantly production-oriented mandate, CEE subsidiaries have a relatively high level of autonomy in the control of their business functions. Majority foreign equity shareholding has a significant and positive impact on subsidiaries’ productivity growth. Our results show strong regional characteristics.     

Growth, control and tensions in an open socialist economy

Persistent contradictions among growth, efficiency and equilibrium in East European countries are analysed in our theoretical model. Internal and external tensions are distinguished. Both types of tension diminish the efficiency of investment and of foreign trade, moreover, they modify macrodistributional shares. Competing growth strategies are compared achieving constant internal and/or external tensions. A simple numberical macromodel is constructed to be used in computer simulations.Special thanks are due to J. Kornai for introducing me to the topic through joint research. I am in great debt to J. Burkett for his contribution to the econometric analysis of a related model and for his penetrating comments on the present paper. My colleagues Zs. Kapitány, L. Halpern, J. Király, G. Körösi, M. Lackó, B. Martos and J. Vincze, have never tired of helping me with their comments. Finally, I acknowledge the help of an anonymous referee. Of course, any remaining error is exclusively mine.     

Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in Agriculture

This paper analyzes trade-related knowledge flows from an innovating country to other countries. It is assumed that knowledge is embodied in commodities traded between countries and that the potential productivity of this knowledge is determined by the local usability of foreign technologies. The usability of foreign knowledge is dependent on the local absorption capacity (such as knowledge infrastructure and human capital) and on structural differences (factor endowments or climate) between countries. In agriculture, a large portion of the knowledge is embodied in inputs which cause factor-biased technical change in the receiving sectors. Trade-related knowledge transmission is introduced in an applied multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) to study the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of knowledge spillovers and of trade policies. Endogenous embodied technology spillovers bear some important implications for trade policy, because protective measures preclude countries not only from cheaper imports but also from foreign technologies.     

基于引力模型的服务贸易决定因素分析

近年来,服务贸易在世界经济中的重要性日益增加。研究影响中国服务贸易发展的决定因素,并探寻合理化的路径以促进服务贸易发展,具有较强的现实意义。研究发现,引力模型适用于中国对外服务贸易决定因素的解释,双边服务贸易额与两国的GDP成正比,与距离成反比。而且,两国的经济规模差异越小,双边贸易量就越大。另外,贸易伙伴国服务业产值占比的上升,有利于增进中国对其服务进口。但是,中国服务业产值占比的增加,并未提升中国服务贸易的出口能力。因此,必须高度重视服务业的发展,促进工业与服务业关系的互动协调,在关键领域形成具有自主知识产权的核心专利和技术标准,大力发展知识、资本、技术密集型服务业。     

中国与其他金砖国家贸易隐含碳研究

本文采用WIOD提供的金砖国家投入产出和直接碳排放数据,通过建立MRIO模型计算1995~2011年中国与其他金砖国家贸易隐含碳排放量,并进一步考察了中国在不同双边贸易中所处地位特征和是否存在碳减排的国际贸易途径。结果表明,中国与不同金砖国家贸易所处地位存在异质性特征,主要表现为中国在中俄贸易中以贸易逆差换取碳减排、中印贸易中以碳排放换取贸易顺差、中巴贸易中隐含碳净出口和贸易逆差共存。中国可通过鼓励相对低碳行业出口,并同时鼓励相对高碳行业进口和金砖国家内部互补性贸易的国际贸易途径促进实现中国碳减排目标。中国应该充分发挥金砖国家合作机制,实现中国与其他金砖国家的"共享式"碳减排。     

外商直接投资与中国对外贸易间关系的实证研究

在中国的对外经济活动中,东亚的新兴工业化国家和美国都是中国的重要伙伴。文章把新加坡和泰国作为新兴工业化国家的代表与高度发达的美国相对应,采用协整分析和误差修正模型研究了中国对这些国家的贸易与其在华直接投资两者间的关系。研究结果显示,这种关系在两类不同国家间存在较大差异,长期以来,美商在华直接投资与我国对美出口之间具有双向格兰杰因果关系,而另外两个国家则只具有单向的格兰杰因果关系。     

我国加工贸易脱贫之路

文章认为,加工贸易的快速增长促进了我国对外贸易迅速发展,国际经济地位迅速提高,但目前我国加工贸易仍处于国际产业价值链的低端,价值增值率和经济效益均处低下水平,处于"贫困化增长"状态,为此,应重新确定我国在国际分工中的地位,改变我国加工企业与外国品牌制造商的关系,延长国际产业链在中国的环节,调整加工贸易内部结构,促进加工贸易协调发展,抓住经济一体化的机遇,鼓励加工企业走出去,开展对外合作,并调整有关加工贸易的政策和监管制度,净化对外贸易环境,寻求我国加工贸易健康持续的发展道路。     

Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context

This paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation for global and regional trade patterns, with special emphasis on countries in East Asia. It is found that, while trade in parts and components (fragmentation trade) has generally grown faster than total world manufacturing trade, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than in North America and Europe. International production fragmentation has certainly played a pivotal role in the continuing dynamism of the East Asian economies and increasing intra-regional economic interdependence. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that this new form of international exchange has contributed to reducing the region's dependence on the global economy. On the contrary, growth dynamism based on vertical specialization depends inexorably on extra-regional trade in final goods, and this dependence has in fact increased over the years.     

Iterative pricing for planning foreign trade

In many industrialized countries there exist large idle production capacities. Conceivably, these might be used for increased economic aid to developing countries and for the stimulation of trade with incompletely convertible currency territories. Concurrently, a stimulation of the economic development of the industrialized countries might be achieved. In developing countries, there may be need for using available export resources in an efficient way to obtain required imports. In the Soviet sphere of influence, there is the problem of how the state foreign trade monopolies should allocate available export quantities and scarce convertible currencies, so as to obtain required import quantities. Related problems were encountered by Western boards of trade after the war in allocating import and export licences. This paper deals with the problem how to attain efficient allocations in foreign trade with the help of modern electronic computational technique. The computational system may be developed to account for inter-industry relations and industrial investments in order to achieve a high rate of economic growth. Editor's note: This is the first of a series of articles on foreign trade planning scheduled to appear inEconomics of Planning, 1963. The author wants to express his sincere gratitude to Professors Gunnar Myrdal, G?ran Ohlin, Ragnar Frisch and Aron Yakovlevich Boyarskij for generous scientific support and criticism; to Dr. Ketternath Bhagwandin, Gunnar Ehrling, and Lars Nilsson for advice in connection with the computer program and for the generous grant of computing time by the Swedish Board for Computing Machinery.     

“10＋1”自由贸易区新阶段广西外贸发展对策研究

随着中国-东盟自由贸易区建设步入全面实施的新阶段,作为中国与东盟国家紧密联系桥梁的广西,自由贸易区的建设对其对外贸易发展有着重要影响。广西应该在充分利用自由贸易区建立所带来的积极影响的基础上．及时优化、调整广西的产业结构,并确立以东盟为主要贸易对象的外贸策略,以更好地促进广西经济快速和全面地发展。     

Explaining trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper examines the evolution of trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) countries since the 1960s. It shows that contrary to the current popular perception, until the 1980s MNA countries were generally more open than the rest of the developing world. That situation changed in the 1980s and especially the 1990s as most MNA countries maintained their trade policies, while many other developing countries proceeded with liberalization. The paper develops and estimates a political economy model of trade policy to search for the factors behind the initial relative openness of the region and its reversal. The results show that the pattern is related to the rise and decline of the region's resource rents, which affected the political weight of domestic producers versus consumers. Other factors are also considered, but they all seem to have secondary effects.     

The effect of European integration on trade with the APEC countries: 1981–2000

This study examines whether the European Union (EU) integration has resulted in significant trade decrease with the three Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) sub-groups during 1981–2000: NAFTA, ASEAN, and NIC. To include all the trade data including those with zero data values, this study estimates the modified gravity model using the scaled ordinary least squares method. First, as expected, the EU countries have reduced trade with all three sub-groups, especially during 1996–2000. However, the ASEAN countries maintain a stable level of trade growth with the EU countries. Second, the results indicate that the EU, ASEAN, and NIC countries trade significantly more among themselves due to their respective integration schemes. (JEL F20, F100)     

Foreign inflows and economic growth: An emiprical study of the SAARC region

The study examines and highlights the impact of selected foreign inflows (aid, trade, FDI, debt and remittances) on the economic growth of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. The existent literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of the SAARC countries as countries like Afghanistan, Bhutan and the Maldives have largely been ignored due to the shorter time periods of available data. The study is empirical in nature and utilizes panel data techniques on macroeconomic data for the period 2008–2015. Foreign aid and foreign direct investment are found to impact economic growth positively. Foreign debt and trade flows are found to adversely affect economic growth. No relationship is established between the flow of remittances and the economic growth of these countries. The obtained results are robust to different proxy variables and the addition of macroeconomic variables. For the first time, the study provides policy implications based on the data of all SAARC countries. The study recommends focusing on increasing the inflows of resources in the form of aid and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed world to achieve higher economic growth.