MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF A COMMUNIST COMMAND ECONOMY: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CIA ESTIMATES FOR THE U.S.S.R.

There are major methodological and practical problems in comparing the performance of capitalist and communist economies. They have been most carefully analysed for the former Soviet Union, for which there was a huge research input, mainly by the CIA. The CIA effort had considerable merit, particularly in assessing Soviet rates of growth. Unfortunately, it was terminated in 1991, partly because it suffered from unduly harsh criticism, partly because its political relevance waned. However, the CIA archives remain an important source for the study of comparative economic growth. It would be extremely useful if they were opened to scholars, a serious loss if they were destroyed.     

ESTIMATES OF THE AGGREGATE QUARTERLY CAPITAL STOCK FOR THE POST-WAR U.S. ECONOMY

We construct quarterly aggregate gross and net capital stock series for the post-war U.S. economy using annual capital stock, capital depreciation, and capital discard figures along with quarterly investment series. We construct nominal and real measures of all three categories in the aggregate capital stock: consumer durable goods, producer durable goods, and business structures. In constructing the nominal series we take into account the changes in capital goods' prices. The series are constructed using four different methods. Using time- and frequency-domain techniques, we compare the constructed series and characterize their short-run, business cycle, and long-run cyclical properties. We find that the constructed series exhibit very different cyclical and shock persistence dynamics. Practial implications are discussed.     

SERVICES INDUSTRIES IN THE BUSINESS SECTOR OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

The focus of this paper is an examination of concepts and statistics necessary to support the measurement of real output of services industries. Although applied to the business sector of the Canadian economy, the issues raised may in fact be relevant for many other countries. The Canadian practice is judged with reference to the international guidelines and recommendations. General methodological issues of deflation are examined, particularly double deflation, extrapolation and rebasing. The perennial problems such as the deflation of imputed banking services, insurance, trade margins, etc. are analysed with a view to provide some tentative solutions thereof. Quality assessment of statistics and the criteria used for such an assessment are indicated to share our concern with the international colleagues facing similar problems.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF U.S. FOREIGN AID: AMERICAN LEGISLATORS AND THE DOMESTIC POLITICS OF AID

Are there systematic political economy factors that shape preferences for foreign aid, a key component of American foreign policy? We analyze votes in the House of Representatives from 1979 to 2003 that would increase or decrease foreign aid by considering the political, economic, and ideological characteristics of legislators and their districts. To understand who supports and opposes foreign aid, we utilize theories of foreign economic policy preferences. By examining different types of aid policy, we show that domestic politics and especially the distributional consequences of economic aid can matter. The economic characteristics of a district and its left–right ideological predispositions influence support for aid in a systematic fashion over the nearly 25‐year period. Stolper–Samuelson models along with political ideology can help explain legislators' preferences toward aid.     

RELATIONAL GOODS, MONITORING AND NON-PECUNIARY COMPENSATIONS IN THE NONPROFIT SECTOR: THE CASE OF THE ITALIAN SOCIAL SERVICES

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper investigates the nonprofit wage gap suggesting a theoretical framework where, like in Akerlof (1984) , effort correlates not only with wages, but also with non-monetary compensations. These take the form of relational goods by-produced in the delivery of particular services. By paying higher non-pecuniary compensations, the nonprofit sector attracts intrinsically similarly skilled, but more motivated workers, able to provide in fact a similar (or potentially higher) level of effort than their counterparts in the forprofit sector. On an empirical ground, the paper provides a number of econometric tests that confirm the main predictions of the model in Italy's case. It adds to the available empirical literature by introducing in the analysis direct measures of non-pecuniary compensations and job satisfaction.     

GROWTH IN THE SHADOWS: EFFECT OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY ON U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER MORE THAN A CENTURY

Taking a long‐term look at U.S. economic growth over 1870–2014, this paper focuses on the spillovers from the shadow or the unofficial economy to growth in the official sector. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neoclassical growth model, we use a relatively new time series technique to estimate the short‐run dynamics and long‐run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to World War II (WWII) the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post‐WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. The sanding effect of the shadow economy in the earlier period is especially robust to alternate considerations of possible endogeneity and an alternate set of growth determinants. (JEL E26, O43, O51, K42)     

美国对华贸易政策的决策和形成因素-以PNTR议案投票结果为例的政治经济分析

本文运用贸易政治经济学的分析框架,对2000年美国国会投票表决是否给予中国永久性正常贸易关系(PNTR)地位这一事件进行经验检验,以此来分析国会议员的投票行为(直接决定了对华贸易政策的形成)受哪些因素影响,并指出这些影响因素的重要程度。通过分析,我们得出如下结论:美国对华贸易政策是政府和利益集团共同作用的均衡结果,议员的个人因素在政策的决策过程中几乎不能发生任何作用,经典贸易模型所预测的不同群体对贸易自由化的态度不能完全被议案的投票结果所证实。     

MEASUREMENT OF THE ROLE O F THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN THE FINNISH ECONOMY

Following the growth of the public sector traditional measures of the size of the public sector have appeared to be inadequate for policy purposes. In the article the role of the public sector in the Finnish economy is described first by using some traditional methods and indicators. The historical background of the development is briefly discussed. After that some specific problems of the measurement are discussed. These problems include measurement of output and productivity, definition of appropriate balance of the public sector, different measures to describe the size and scope of the public sector, role of tax reliefs and subsidies, different organizational arrangements, public sector regulation etc.
The growth of the public sector takes many different forms and it appears to be more difficult than formerly to obtain a comprehensive picture of the scope of the public sector. For different purposes different indicators have to be used. At the end of the paper the implications of the changing emphasis in the public policy are discussed.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN JAPAN AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY

Abstract.  The rise of the service economy in industrialized countries is having considerable effects on employment and economic activities in Japan. This paper empirically examines the evolution of the service sector in Japan and assesses its impact on employment generation and economic growth. Owing to the heterogeneous nature of the service sector, it is important to further develop the more productive service industries, while making every effort to increase the productivity of the less productive service industries. Policy-makers must take appropriate measures to enhance the productivity of the service sector in order to strengthen overall economic growth.     

IS U.S. GROWTH UNDERSTATED BECAUSE OF THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY? EMPLOYMENT RATIOS SUGGEST NOT

Has the underground economy caused the increase in United States GNP in recent years to be understated relative to earlier periods? The ratio of employment to population provides powerful evidence that it has not. This ratio’ was as high in the middle 1970s as in previous periods and in 1978–80 rose to its highest level of the postwar era, suggesting that employment growth has not been understated. Employment series based on both establishment reports and household surveys yield exceptionally high ratios in recent years. This article provides a step-by-step explanation of why employment data are pertinent to the question raised about GNP. This explanation may be summarized as follows. GNP measured as the sum of final products is not understated unless GNP measured as the sum of national income and other charges against GNP is also understated. Appreciable understatement of the growth of charges against GNP as a result of growth of the underground economy is highly unlikely in the absence of understatement of the growth of wages and salaries, because of the way the estimates are made. Understatement of the growth of wages and salaries without understatement of the growth of employment based on establishment reports is highly unlikely because of the way data are collected. The article explains briefly the relationship between income tax evasion and errors in measuring the various components of charges against GNP. It also explains how illegal activities are meant to be handled in GNP measurement.