关于"国际定价权"缺失的思考

中国已经成为全球大宗能源、原材料及农产品的重要进口国,对全球大宗商品市场具有一定的影响力,但这种影响力仅仅体现在需求拉动方面,并没有掌握大宗商品的国际定价话语权,只能被动地承担国际市场投机的风险,对我国经济造成很大的影响。文章通过对石油的进口、消耗、汇率以及市场投机等价格影响因素的分析,提出了促进石油进口合约及战略联盟、建立和完善中国的期货市场、建立采购协调机制、改革和完善市场体制、加强外汇储备的运用、转变经济增长方式等6方面的策略建议,对我国今后的资本运营和发展战略的制定具有一定的参考价值。     

进口原油贸易中的挑战和机遇

国内原油资源总量不足,进口量逐年增加,而国际市场上不同原渍的价格波动快慢、幅度各不相同,蕴藏着无限商机。对于企业来讲,在生产中如何根据市场需求和燃油装置结构选择合适的原油加工结构,并挑选合适的时机购买原油,对炼化企业的经济效益有决定性作用。从长远看。国家建立原油战略储备,既是对国家安全的保证,也是增加财政收入,降低行业风险的重要措施。     

虚拟煤炭储备研究

介绍了煤炭储备的发展现状及学术界的研究现状,分析了虚拟煤炭储备和煤炭储备的异同,指出了虚拟煤炭储备在开采时机、环境保护、丰富衍生品市场和走向国际市场等方面的应用和未来的发展前景。     

国际石油储备建设经验与启示

为防范国际市场石油供应中断危机，美，日，德等国自20世纪70年代起开始建立石油储备，积累了丰富经验，并于1991年海湾战争期间发挥了作用，中国近年来石油进口剧增，也面临着石油供应中断的危险，应借鉴国际石油储备建设的经验与启示，建立中国自己的石油储备。     

On scale economies and exhaustible resource markets

This paper considers an exhaustible resource market where firms realize economies of scale in the production of the resource, and may augment reserves through exploration. With the non-convexities inherent in this model, the typical firm's optimal decisions are corner solutions. It either operates at full intensity or not at all. Firms with larger current reserves have a greater incentive to produce today; firms with smaller reserves will tend to hold their reserves for production at a later date. It follows that the market supply curve in any given period is a step function. As price rises, production increases discontinuously: at discrete intervals, the marginal firm will change from not producing today to producing all of its reserves. With such a supply curve, the market may or may not clear. Simulation of this model suggests: (i) the chance of market clearing in any period is near 1/2; (ii) such an industry is unlikely to exhibit a significant increase in concentration over time.     

关于石油企业风险预警与防风险措施初探

石油勘探开发是高风险、高投入行业，石油企业时刻面临诸如勘探风险、油价波动风险、市场风险、国际政治经济风险等多重风险因素的影响。深入探讨和研究石油企业的经营风险和预警管理很有必要。石油企业的防范和规避风险预警措施，应包括：建立一套规范、全面的预警管理程序和预警系统，通过多渠道建立国家战略石油储备，建立健全石油企业内外部预警监督机制等。通过建立企业预警指标体系和预警机制，采取有效的预警措施，促使石油企业健康、持续、稳定发展。     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

IEA的石油储备释放计划：缘起、影响与启示

2011年6月23日国际能源机构（IEA）宣布计划释放总量达6000万桶的石油储备,以缓解利比亚原油出口中断对国际石油市场的冲击。本文认为,此次石油储备释放计划的出台,是金融危机以来主要发达国家面临经济复苏乏力和公共政策工具匮乏的产物,具有试探性,以观察其对国际油价和相关各国的影响。鉴于本次储备释放量的有限性、欧佩克可能作出的负面反应以及抵消性的挥发-抑制效应,本次储备释放对油价的影响将是比较小的。但考虑到世界宏观经济状况的不确定性,对其后续影响仍需谨慎判断。中国正在逐步形成庞大的石油储备规模,对IEA特别是美国石油储备释放的历史考察,有助于促使中国认真思考、谨慎建构科学的战略石油储备运用制度。     

The new US farm policies

This article is an early assessment of the agricultural policies of the Carter administration, particularly as they relate to Western Europe. The author examines emerging US farm policy with regard to: price and production, grain reserves, attitude toward the Common Agricultural Policy of the EEC, trade in agricultural products, and commodity agreements.     

后危机时代我国粮价影响因素的实证研究

农业是国民经济的基础产业,粮食市场价格的稳定是关系到社会安全和经济发展的重大战略问题。然而,后危机时代在国际粮价飙升和国内农业生产资料价格上升等多方面因素的影响下,我国粮食市场价格上涨压力倍增。本文采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,通过SPSS软件对影响我国粮价的重要因素进行实证研究,并进一步对解决我国粮食价格问题进行了初步的探讨。     

中国存款准备金政策的现状及影响研究

对中国存款准备金的现状进行了梳理,将重点放在分析中国准备金政策的实施背景与影响两方面：通过分析我国目前的货币环境,对比相应政策工具的优缺点来说明近几年我国变动准备金率的原因;通过建立回归模型来分析准备金政策对市场利率的影响;通过建立VAR模型,分析法定准备金率的变动对货币供给、贷款以及超储率的影响。进而提出对于准备金政策合理实施的几点建议。     

The Soviet burden on the world food system : Challenge and response

Through its disruptive entry into western food markets and its non —participation in global efforts at food policy management the Soviet Union has placed a burden upon the world food system. Dr Paarlberg examines this burden and the US response which has been to seek better information on Soviet agriculture, impose ad hoc controls on food sales and to enter a bilateral agreement in 1975. Three other suggested responses —grain reserves held without Soviet participation, a US wheat board, and a North American export cartel —are discussed. The author concludes that the Soviet burden is decreasing and is best lifted by increasing the free supply available for export. In future. Soviet reliance on food imports may draw it into a greater dependence on the non-socialist world.     

中国石油物资储备管理模式探诋

长期以来,为确保正常、连续09生产经营活动不受物资供应的影响,中国石油集团公司所属各企业对备品配件采取了“绝对保证”的策略。随着授权集中采购工作的成功实践,中国石油在全系统范围规范了《一级采购物资管理目录》内物资的采购流程。在此基础上,文章提出采用新的物资储备管理模式,包括供应商管理库存（Vendor Managed Inventory,VMI）模式;虚拟联合储备模式和区域集中储备模式;针对通用型关键物资和常用零星需求物资,分别制定储备策略,合理储备。建议制定适用于新的物资管理模式的相关管理办法和配套措施,建立储备信息管理系统。     

论中国超经济外汇储备的调整

中国外汇储备规模不断扩大,构成相对集中,在收益有限的情况下,对冲国内资产价格泡沫和通货膨胀以维护货币政策稳定的成本不菲,尤其面临人民币升值、国外固定收益债券价值下跌及长期机构债违约等风险。须从源头和用途两方面加强对中国外汇储备的积极管理,实施多元化投资,实施经济体制改革,通过市场力量和创新来给巨额外汇储备消肿,尤其从国际金融战略的层面推进人民币国际化,加强人民币在区域货币合作和国际金融体系中的作用和影响。     

The food security challenge

The article first describes current market conditions and the nature of the food security challenge they present. Second, the article considers the kinds of food security measures which have been or could be taken with respect to improving LDC operations in commercial grain markets, using reserves to achieve supply and price stabilization objectives and making food aid a more effective instrument for food security.     

Trade policies and variability in international grain markets

Increased instability in international market prices has created new problems for trade participants, particularly developing countries. However, it seems that importing country policies are primarily responsible for market variability. In most cases, a trade-reliant strategy appears more effective than an alternative policy of self-sufficiency. As long as countries continue to subsidize domestic consumption, international market controls appear likely to remain as key components of grain policy in importing countries.     

国际零售商海外市场选择机理--基于市场邻近模型与心理距离视角的解释

市场邻近模型是以地理邻近与文化邻近为基点，并增加了经济、社会、零售结构与公共政策这几个标准，而构建起的市场邻近六角模型。国际零售商在海外市场选择时，尤其是在国际化初期，将偏好于向与母国市场具有邻近性的海外市场进行扩张。通过心理距离来对市场邻近程度进行衡量，更符合零售商海外扩张团队决策的实际。本文对心理距离的含义进行了界定，提出了心理距离的测量方法，并对心理距离悖论问题进行了分析。最后对市场邻近模型与心理距离之间的关系，以及两者在国际零售商海外市场选择中的作用进行了评述。     

Marktkonzentration und Marktmachtanalyse für den deutschen Regelenergiemarkt

We analyze the German market for tertiary electricity reserves in 2008. The cost of tertiary reserves of about €200 million accounted for 15% of the total cost of system services. The aim of the paper is to analyze the market structure to reveal possible opportunities for the execution of market power. To do so, we apply various concentration measures for the total market, as well as for all submarkets (i.e., different time frames, positive and negative reserves). We analyze: market shares, Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index, Pivotal Supplier Index (PSI) and the Residual Supply Index (RSI). Based on all concentration indicators, we find that all submarkets are best characterized as tight oligopolies with a (competitive) fringe. The four largest companies always qualify as being jointly dominant according to German competition law. The role of the fringe firms is, however, not negligible, in particular not for positive reserves. Strongest indication for market power is found for negative reserves from 0–8 a.m. Our analysis highlights that relying on single concentration indicators (e.g., market shares) can be misleading. It is sensible and often necessary to consider the full set of indicators.     

油价改革——渐进市场化的蜕变

为了解决国际油价高企情况下我国油价倒挂所产生的炼化环节的亏损和迎接2006年底放开成品油批发市场放开外资进入的挑战，我国开展了成品油定价机制改革。虽然市场化是定价机制改革的总方向，但介于我国市场化条件的不成熟，我国应实行逐步实现市场化的方法，同时要注重配套措施的改革，如对弱势群体的补偿，建立公平有效的成品油市场，建设我国的战略石油储备和石油期货市场，我国只有完善了这些软硬件才能真正的实现油价的市场化。     

National grain policies: The international dimension

Government intervention in the pricing and marketing of grains has led to increased use of restrictive trade practices to preserve domestic price levels and ensure orderly marketing of domestically produced and imported grain. The author examines this relationship between domestic agricultural and trade policies of a selected group of grain importing and exporting countries. The article suggests that, because of the strong link between domestic and trade policies, it will be difficult to reduce trade restrictions in international grain markets in future trade negotiations.