Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

Neither feast nor famine: World food 20 years on

The authors summarize the results of a modelling exercise designed to examine future problems in the world food system. The alternatives resulting from the interactive analysis are presented and the impact of some of these alternatives on American business and society are discussed. Their conclusions include the likelihood that world food conditions in the next 20 years will not follow the trends of the last 20 years; that the rising level of food imports of poor regions will not be sustained; that self-reliance holds the key to a stable future; that food reserves are essential and US policy on them needs to be reassessed; and that the measures needed in poor countries could conflict with the present concern of the US government for human rights.     

US agriculture and the environment

Prospective increases in demand for US agricultural output suggest rising economic and environmental costs. Among environmental costs, those resulting from erosion appear most threatening. Policy alternatives for restraining the increase in erosion include limiting the growth of demand for crops, strengthening policies to induce farmers to adopt erosion control practices, and investing in research to develop higher yielding, less erosive technologies. Limiting exports faces severe domestic political difficulties and probably is not consistent with other US interests in foreign trade. And inducing wider farmer adoption of erosion control practices probably would prove expensive. This approach should not be abandoned, but it should be accompanied by a policy to develop new technologies.     

Is there a virtuous circle relationship between innovation activities and exports? A comparison of food and agricultural firms

This study examines the existence of an interrelationship between innovation decisions and exports for food and agricultural firms as such a relationship could be the source of competitive advantages. Thus, taking as a theoretical basis the focus provided by the Resource-Based-View, the innovation and export decisions taken from 2006 to 2011 by 165 agricultural firms and 783 food companies operating in Spain (Europe) are examined here. The results of the bivariate probit and matching models used indicate a bi-directional nature of these decisions in the case of food companies and a positive though not bidirectional one in the case of the agricultural firms. Furthermore, a certain persistence is seen in the use of these decisions in both types of firms. For food companies, capital intensity and size are also determinants of innovation and exports. From the viewpoint of the decisions taken by individual firms, the bidirectional relationship could involve significant pressure in terms of the larger volume of both technological and human resources required. Agricultural and food policy decisions should incentivize these decisions given that in order to operate successfully in the global market it is necessary to acquire these competitive advantages, which also favor the growth of the agriculture and food trades.     

Consumer preferences for farm-raised meat,lab-grown meat,and plant-based meat alternatives: Does information or brand matter?

Despite rising interest in and sales of innovative non-animal-based protein sources, there remains a lack of information about consumer demand for these new foods and their ultimate market potential. This study reports the results of a nationwide survey of more than 1800 U.S. consumers who completed a choice experiment in which they selected among conventional beef and three alternative burger patties, (lab-grown, plant-based with pea protein, and plant-based with animal-like protein) at different prices. Respondents were randomly allocated to treatments that varied in the presence/absence of brands and information about the competing alternatives. Results from random parameter logit models indicate that, holding prices constant and conditional on choosing a food product, 72% chose farm-raised beef and 28% chose one of the alternatives: 16% plant-based (pea protein) meat alternative, 7% plant-based (animal-like protein) meat alternative, and 5% lab-grown meat. Adding brand names (Certified Angus Beef, Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, and Memphis Meats) increased the share for choosing farm-raised beef to 80%. Environment and technology information had minor effects on conditional market shares but reduced the share of people not buying any options, indicating information pulled more people into the market. Even if plant- and lab-grown alternatives experienced significant (e.g., 50%) price reductions, farm-raised beef maintains the majority market share. Vegetarians, males, younger, and more highly educated individuals tend to have relatively stronger preferences for the plant- and lab-grown alternatives relative to farm-raised beef. More people opposed than supported taxing conventional beef for environmental and animal welfare objectives and more opposed than supported having plant- and lab-grown alternatives use the label ‘beef’     

The impact of food safety standards on processed food exports from developing countries

This paper examines the impact of food safety standards on processed food exports in developing countries. A panel data econometric analysis of processed food exports in developing countries was undertaken. The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standard (SPS) is incorporated into the model to capture the impact of food safety standards. The empirical model shows that food safety standards imposed by developed countries could impede processed food exports from developing countries. This could emerge because practically, SPS is less transparent than tariffs or quotas. There is an ample room for developed countries to tweak the standards stronger than necessary to achieve optimal levels of social protection, and to twist the related testing and certification procedures to make their competing imports more competitive. In addition, limited supply-side capacity of developing countries, especially in terms of resources, manpower as well as institution, constrains the countries to overcome food safety standards. Because of the potential benefits that could emerge from imposing food safety standards such as a reduction in transaction costs and trade friction, developing countries should view SPS not just as a trade barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standard and market sophistication. Supply-side capacity in developing countries needed to be improved, especially upgrading agriculture sector. Multilateral efforts are also needed to mobilize additional financial and technical assistance to help redress constraints in developing countries in meeting the required food safety standards imposed by developed countries.     

Protein efficiency per unit energy and per unit greenhouse gas emissions: Potential contribution of diet choices to climate change mitigation

The production, transport and processing of food products have significant environmental impacts, some of them related to climate change. This study examined the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production and transport to a port in Sweden (wholesale point) of 84 common food items of animal and vegetable origin. Energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for food items produced in different countries and using various means of production were compared. The results confirmed that animal-based foods are associated with higher energy use and GHG emissions than plant-based foods, with the exception of vegetables produced in heated greenhouses. Analyses of the nutritional value of the foods to assess the amount of protein delivered to the wholesale point per unit energy used or GHG emitted (protein delivery efficiency) showed that the efficiency was much higher for plant-based foods than for animal-based. Remarkably, the efficiency of delivering plant-based protein increased as the amount of protein in the food increased, while the efficiency of delivering animal-based protein decreased. These results have implications for policies encouraging diets with lower environmental impacts for a growing world population.     

International cattle ID and traceability: Competitive implications for the US

Global standards for animal identification and traceability are evolving rapidly. Major world animal health, trade, and food safety organizations have formally recognized the importance of, and actively promoted, animal identification and traceability system development. Advanced animal traceability systems have been deployed by major beef exporters and are increasingly being adopted by important beef importing countries. This study summarizes and compares animal identification systems across major export and import countries. Results reveal that the United States lags behind both major export and import countries in development and adoption of cattle identification and tracing systems. As such, the United States has placed itself in a vulnerable position relative to competing export countries with respect to demonstrated animal traceability. This status could adversely affect market access in the future for US beef exports.     

Farm policies and added sugars in US diets

We examine how US farm policies for sweetener crops have affected the consumption and composition of sweeteners in the US diet. R&D expenditures have lowered the unit cost of commodities used in sweeteners, but have generated more technical progress in corn than in sugar crops, increasing use of corn in food production, ceteris paribus. Commodity programs have raised the price of sugar and decreased the price of corn. Thus, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) became an inexpensive substitute for sugar in food from 1970 on. However, the effect of policy on ingredient prices has become less important over time. Today the farm value share in sweetened food is below 5% and HFCS is a specialized input in many food items, with limited substitution possibilities. The current link between US sweetener consumption and farm policy is weak. Recent evidence from other high-income countries shows little relationship between sweetener consumption and sugar policies.     

US and EEC agricultural trade policies: A long-run view of the present conflict

This paper traces post-war agricultural policy in the USA and compares it with the developing policies of the EEC. It examines the reasons for, and the results of, the protectionist policies which have been adopted in each case, and how the present conflict between the two trading blocs were inevitable, due to the foundations laid in the 1950s. The grain sector is used to illustrate the dominant tendencies in US agricultural policies, which include a programme of food aid used as an outlet for US agricultural capacity. The conclusion outlines how the EEC, with its potential for further growth in grain exports, can learn from the US experience in this, and other, aspects of agricultural trade.     

2010年俄罗斯石油工业综述

受国际经济环境好转及油价上涨等利好因素影响,2010年俄罗斯经济逐步走出危机,能源工业稳步恢复,油气产业各项指标均呈增长趋势。其中,原油产量突破5亿吨,原油加工量2.49亿吨,同比分别增长2.2和5.5;原油出口量2.48亿吨,与上年基本持平;成品油出口增长8.3,至1.31亿吨;原油和成品油出口外汇收入分别为1290亿和694亿美元,同比分别增长38.0和48.3;天然气产量和出口量分别为6490亿和1791亿立方米,同比分别增长11.2和6.4;天然气出口外汇收入435亿美元,同比增长10.4。在管道建设方面,2010年俄罗斯远东输油管道一期工程和俄中原油管道建成投运,波罗的海管输系统二期线路工程完工,＂北流＂天然气管道开始建设,＂南流＂管道也与所有管道途经国签署合作协议。在油气政策方面,2010年俄政府编制了石油和天然气行业的专项发展纲要,批准了亚马尔—涅涅茨自治区和克拉斯诺亚尔斯克边疆区北部2020年前油气田综合开发规划,制订新的矿产资源开采税税率并继续推行关税优惠政策,逐步放开大陆架开发权。     

Coming to terms with vulnerability: a critique of the food security definition

This paper seeks to improve the practice of vulnerability assessment for food security purposes by addressing long-standing issues that have hampered the development of both theory and methods. In food security contexts, vulnerability is usually defined in relation to an outcome, such as hunger, food insecurity or famine. This precludes employing the concept for the more specific task of evaluating the susceptibility of a population to explicitly-identified exogenous events or shocks that could lead to these outcomes. This lack of specificity has clouded interpretation of causal factors of food insecurity and famine. Alternatively, in a widely-applied framework for disaster risk assessment, the concept of vulnerability serves the more specific purpose of identifying characteristics of population groups or other elements that make them more or less susceptible to experiencing damage when exposed to particular hazards or shocks. Risks of negative outcomes are created by the combination of hazards and vulnerability, and vulnerability is defined by its relation to hazards rather than directly in relation to the outcomes themselves. The result has been an easier and more transparent translation of concepts into practice. That this latter formulation can also be applied in the food security context is illustrated through an analysis of food security risks in Tanzania. The analysis identifies economic alternatives households can exercise to meet their minimum annual food requirements. Exogenous threats or shocks that can suppress or eliminate particular alternatives exercised by different groups are identified as a means of assessing households' vulnerability and consequently their risks of becoming food insecure, or falling below the minimum threshold.     

The 1974 and 1984 floods in Bangladesh: From famine to food crisis management

In 1984 Bangladesh suffered the worst monsoon flooding since 1974, the year of famine. The flood losses in production inevitably put severe strain on the food system. The strains were so severe as to be characterized as a ‘food crises’ - a situation in which government resorted to extraordinary measures. The seasonal losses in production for the first three crops of the calendar year 1984 (boro, aus, broadcast aman) were at least a million tonnes. As is now recognized this loss in production also resulted in a drastic reduction in employment for the rural landless, on a conservative estimate 25 million person days. These are circumstances which could have led to famine conditions.     

US food stamp policy — political considerations

The author analyses the political factors which influence reform of the US food stamp programme. After discussing the reasons for the failure of the Ford Administration's proposals he examines the Carter Administration's efforts and discusses future alternatives to the food stamp programme.     

Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure – consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.     

Fish and nutrition in India

A 1966 survey of possibilities for increasing food production to meet India's minimum nutritional requirements concluded that a national programme could be formulated for making better use of India's vast potential in fisheries. This article gives an account of the current production and disposal of fisheries products in India. The three major phases of fisheries operations are distinguished, and actions are proposed that could be taken in each phase to help alleviate malnutrition in India. Finally the article discusses how such actions could be undertaken within a comprehensive national programme designed to increase the contribution of fisheries to the alleviation of India's malnutrition problem.     

National food safety control systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Uganda’s aquaculture control system meet international requirements

Stringent food safety requirements set by developed country markets, which require exporting countries to establish effective national food control systems (NFCS) that guarantee safety of the products to the market, pose a challenge to Sub-Saharan countries in development of aquaculture products as alternative exports following the decline of capture fisheries. In the study, four components of Uganda’s NFCS including legislation, competent authority, inspection services, and laboratory services were evaluated for compliance with FAO/WHO, European Union (EU), and the United States (US) market recommendations for guaranteeing aquaculture product safety. Using a checklist, component elements were benchmarked and scored, and components ranked for compliance with the recommendations. On a scale of 0–5, where 0 denotes none, 1 very low, 2 low, 3 some, 4 almost total, and 5 full compliance, only laboratory services had a barely acceptable score of 3.3 (some compliance). The rest including legislation which is central in setting the level of controls by the other three components scored below three, and the combined score for all components was only 2.2, indicating that Uganda’s NFCS was still short of the requirements to allow entrepreneurs to access markets in the EU and other developed countries. The low score is partly attributed to the dynamics of this country’s fledgling aquaculture industry and the rapidly evolving food safety requirements in the international markets.     

Challenges to the use of fertilisers derived from human excreta: The case of vegetable exports from Kenya to Europe and influence of certification systems

Land degradation and inadequate faecal sludge management are two major issues in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The transformation of human excreta into soil amendments and their wide-scale adoption could improve soil health and contribute to solving the sanitation crisis in SSA. There are however perception challenges around these fertilisers because of the potentially harmful components they contain such as pathogens and heavy metals, which can be removed with appropriate treatment such as composting. A major barrier to the wide scale commercialisation of human excreta derived fertiliser (HEDF) is the unclear regulations surrounding their use. The aim of this study was to identify barriers to the use of HEDF by farmers participating in the horticultural export market with Kenya as focus area since horticultural exports are a major contributor to the country’s economy. Global GAP is the most widely adopted standard for quality assurance of horticultural crops and the use of human sewage sludge is currently not allowed on certified farms. Interviews with stakeholders along the food export chain highlighted the complex interactions that exist between them and showed that Global GAP certified farmers were not willing to use HEDF on their farms even if local regulations recognise treated sludge as a valid input to agriculture. Several countries (like the UK, Sweden, Australia and the USA) created specific certification or assurance schemes to improve public perception of biosolids. The creation of a similar assurance or certification scheme specific to fertilisers made from source-separated human excreta would be a step into formalising them as a product, establishing production procedures, limits on contaminants content as well as testing protocols. Such a certification scheme could increase the confidence of regulating bodies in HEDF and lead to their acceptance by global farming standards.     

The US food stamp programme

Food stamps are a policy topic of considerable current interest in the USA. In addition, the US programme offers other countries a working example of this particular approach to food assistance and nutrition improvement. This article reviews the history, performance, fundamentals, current reform measures, and future alternatives of the programme. Although food stamps have not solved the nutrition problem in the USA, they have served reasonably well as a food assistance and income supplement programme. If comprehensive welfare reform is enacted in the USA, a food stamp programme designed to maximize its nutritional impact is advocated.     

Saving two in a billion:: quantifying the trade effect of European food safety standards on African exports

A growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries. This paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the EU on food exports from Africa. We employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the EU standard, in contrast to those suggested by international standards. The analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 European countries and nine African countries between 1989 and 1998. Our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the EU will have a negative impact on African exports of cereals, dried fruits and nuts to Europe. The new EU standard, which would reduce health risk by approximately 1.4 deaths per billion a year, will decrease these African exports by 64% or US$ 670 million, in contrast to regulation set through an international standard.