THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION

In this paper we offer a bootstrap‐based version of the Cox specification test for non‐nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly used for modeling real exchange rates dynamics. We show that the test has good size and power properties in finite samples. In an application, we analyze several major real exchange rates to shed light on the question of which model describes these processes best. This allows us to draw conclusions about the driving forces of real exchange rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FACTOR MODELS AND TIME‐VARYING PARAMETER FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION: A SURVEY

A survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor‐based and time‐varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models. This survey also finds that models based on Taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates. The evidence on the use of Bayesian Model Averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power, but strong support for forecasting inflation. Overall, the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts, relevance of the historical data, data transformation, choice of the benchmark, selected time horizons, sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation.     

ECONOMETRIC APPROACHES TO EMPIRICAL MODELS OF EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION

Abstract. This paper identifies four principal econometric approaches to the estimation and testing of asset market models of exchange rate determination: the traditional, static reduced-form approach; the error correction and co-integration, dynamic reduced-form approaches; the simultaneous equations approach; and large scale, multi-equation macroeconometric simulation models. Each of these econometric approaches is evaluated with respect to its theoretical validity and the comparative properties of the empirical results obtained. This leads to the conclusion that although there may be little to choose between the different theoretical exchange rate models, there may be grounds for favouring a multi-equation, simultaneous estimation procedure for this class of models.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ESTIMATION OF TIME‐VARYING ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF INFORMED TRADING AND PROBABILITY OF SYMMETRIC ORDER‐FLOW SHOCK

Recently, Duarte and Young (2009) studied the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decomposed it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order‐flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross‐section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high‐frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, APIN is not. On the other hand, PSOS is positively correlated with daily average effective spread and variance, which is consistent with the interpretation of PSOS as a measure of illiquidity. Compared to APIN, PSOS exhibits clustering and sporadic bursts over time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE,SAVING, CAPITAL FLOWS AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the existing literature on the effects of population age structure on saving, capital flows and the real exchange rate. We build on previous surveys of age structure and saving behaviour by including extensive discussion of international linkages, specifically the impact on capital flows and real exchange rates. We also point to unresolved issues that need to be addressed given that population aging has serious policy implications in the developed economies these days.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE GERMAN BUNDESBANK AFTER 1983

A cointegrated VAR model describing a small macroeconomic system consisting of money, income, prices, and interest rates is estimated on split sample data before and after 1983. The monetary mechanisms are found to be significantly different. Before 1983 the money supply is controllable and expansion or contraction of money supply has the expected effect on prices, income, and interest rates. After 1983 the conventional mechanisms no longer seem to work. The empirical analysis points to the crucial role of the bond rate in the system, particularly for the more recent period.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.     

FOOD SECURITY AND LOW‐INCOME HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MALAYSIAN EAST COAST ECONOMIC REGION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

This research, conducted to analyze the level of food security among poor and low‐income households in the east coast economic region of Malaysia, uses primary data of 460 families from the E‐Kasih poor households database, based on a cluster random sampling technique. Food security levels were measured using the United States Agency for International Development Household Food Insecurity Access model. Findings indicate that 52.8% of households are food secure, 23.3% mildly food insecure, 14.3% moderately food insecure, and 9.6% are severely food insecure. These findings are very important to assist policymakers to achieve Vision 2020 and the targets of Malaysian National Plans regarding food security, socioeconomic development, and the alleviation of poverty. The involvement of private sector and community‐based organizations are important to combat short run, seasonal, and event‐related risks, as well as for the development of appropriate mitigation and adaptation options to ensure sustainable food security at household level in Malaysia.     

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FISCAL ILLUSION

Abstract. This paper examines the empirical analysis of the five main hypotheses subsumed under the generic term fiscal illusion. After placing these hypotheses within a common theoretical framework, the paper attempts to evaluate empirical research into the revenue-complexity hypothesis, the revenue-elasticity hypothesis, the flypaper effect, renter illusion, and debt illusion.     

ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURING: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS AND DIMENSIONS OF STRUCTURES IN CERTAIN FINNISH COMPANIES

The relationships of structure and structural factors at a general level are examined on the basis of data from a Finnish sample of mostly small and medium-sized industrial organizations. the sample, which consists of shoe and clothing firms, is homogeneous in terms of basic technology and industrial environment. the structural relationships are analysed from the point of view of size so that the interaction or concurrence of size and specialization is seen as a primary determinant of the systems of structural relationships. Some additional contextual variables are included in the analysis. Further, the factors or dimensions of structure reported are built on the basic variables of coordination and control. the factors are managerial supervision, the administrative component in general, including the clerical component, which is of particular importance, and impersonal mechanisms.     

SCALE, PERFORMANCE AND THE NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF LOCAL AUTHORITY SERVICES

New public management (NPM) arguments on strategy and structure suggest that performance is enhanced if large organizations are disaggregated into smaller units. the NPM perspective reflects the views of public choice theorists who claim that big organizations are unresponsive to public needs, inefficient and fail to achieve their formal goals. These arguments have underpinned many recent changes in the structure of public services at both central and local levels.
This paper uses data on six local government services to test the NPM hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between scale and performance. Five dimensions of performance are analysed: service coverage, quality, speed of provision, efficiency, and administrative effectiveness. Scale is measured through indicators of service output, caseload and needs. the impact of scale is tested in multivariate statistical models which control for other potential influences on variations in performance across local authorities.
Only around half of the statistical evidence suggests that the smallest local units are the best performers. In addition, even when performance does decline with scale, this trend is reversed in the very largest units. Thus, contrary to NPM arguments, the biggest organizations are seldom the poorest performers.     

THE EMPIRICAL MEASUREMENT OF RENT‐SEEKING COSTS

Abstract This survey focuses on the efforts, carried out mainly by public choice scholars, to measure the social cost of rent seeking. The concept, introduced by Gordon Tullock in 1967 and coined by Anne Krueger in 1974, is well known and accepted by the profession, but its empirical measurement has fallen behind with respect to its theoretical formulation, an often criticized lack in the literature. Although there are good general surveys, none has specifically focused on reviewing the empirical efforts made to measure the phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to provide such a survey.     

PRIVATISATION AND EFFICIENCY IN THE UK WATER INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACTS The post-privatisation structure of the UK water industry involves the separation of environmental services from other outputs previously produced under an integrated system by the publicly-owned water authorities. This paper examines the extent to which the integrated authorities benefitted from joint production. Estimating a dynamic multi-product cost function from pooled cross-section, time-series quality adjusted data drawn from the accounts of the water authorities for the period 1979/80–1987/88, prior to privatisation, significant elements of joint production are found. Divestiture of the industry, arguably justified on other criteria, implies the loss of substantial areas of cost complimentary.