DISASTROUS ANTI‐ECONOMICS AND THE ECONOMICS OF DISASTERS

This article surveys and synthesises some of the research on the political economy of natural disasters. While people tend to support government intervention to reduce prices or otherwise aid disaster recovery, research shows that government organisations are often corrupt and ineffective. Further, since people tend to mis‐identify the causes of (for example) gasoline price increases after natural disasters, government intervention after a disaster is likely to do more harm than good.     

REGULATION AND THE NATURAL PROGRESS OF OPULENCE

Adam Smith taught us how government regulation can counteract the market forces that produce economic growth. Here I explore a more complex interplay between regulation and economic growth. Regulation creates behavioural incentives that weaken or offset entirely the goal of the regulation. Growth produces many of the benefits ascribed to regulation while also hiding the costs and failures of regulation.     

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE THEORY OF NATURAL MONOPOLY

Abstract. This paper examines two important recent developments in the theory of natural monopoly, or more generally the theory of market structure. The first is a series of papers, involving Baumol with various co-authors, investigating the theory of industry structure, whilst the second is particularly associated with the names of Shaked and Sutton, and the relationship they develop between product differentiation and industry structure. The paper surveys and to some extent contrasts these two new approaches.
Baumol et al. 's contribution is seen to be in the area of clarifying the concept of natural monopoly, refining the definitions of multiproduct costs, and developing a notion of social efficiency applicable to industries where economies of scale are important. Shaked and Sutton employ a new definition of natural monopoly unrelated to market size and utilize information about consumers'income distributions to develop their notion of vertical product differentiation and natural oligopoly.     

THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The authors investigate what Muth labels as the "chicken and egg" or what others label it as "jobs follow people" versus "people follow jobs" debate by studying the dynamic relationships of changes in population and employment in the snowbelt, the sunbelt, and the nine census regions of the United States. The vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling method is used for the annual time series data (1955–1988) on population and employment. The Granger causality tests show that, in the snowbelt region, population tends to precede employment, while in the sunbelt region, the opposite is true. The impulse response functions generated for the forecasting decade suggest that "jobs follow people" in the snowbelt and "people follow jobs" in the sunbelt. Similar findings in general hold for the census regions belonging to the snowbelt and sunbelt. These findings raise doubts about the proposition of others that the growth process is either demand or supply-driven in all phases of regional growth.     

A SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LITERATURE OF FINANCE AND GROWTH

Abstract.  This paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth. The survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables. Although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact, there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies. Several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to several directions for future research.     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION AND THE GROWTH OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In modern developed economies it is the service sector that generates jobs. In Anglo-Saxon economies, where employment protection legislation is low and unions comparatively weak, services account for three-quarters of income and four-fifths of jobs. Yet in France, Germany and Italy, where the reverse is true, the service sector accounts for much less of the economy in terms of income and jobs. This article shows that employment protection legislation – defended by trade unions still dominating manufacturing in continental Europe – results in higher unemployment rates and also negatively affects the growth of services.     

COMMENTS ON THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

There has been much discussion about whether population growth causes employment growth or vice versa. This study supplements the work of Mathur and Song by confirming that population growth causes employment growth in die Snowbelt and die reverse in die Sunbelt. Also, regional growth rates of population and employment alternated between convergence, divergence, and convergence during 1955-88.     

SWITZERLAND: GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT, GROWTH OF CENTRALISATION

Switzerland has a tradition of decentralised government, decentralised tax setting and direct reference to the voters through referendums. Such mechanisms should give rise to lower taxes, better provision of public goods and higher economic growth. However, these mechanisms have not been effective in the last 30 years at preventing the growth in government spending and centralisation. This is partly because of the consensus in favour of centralisation that exists among institutionalised politicians. The performance of the Swiss economy since 1970 has consequently been dismal. Real per capita post-tax incomes have been stagnant. There is now an opportunity for the growth of centralisation to be reversed.     

LOCAL LABOR MARKETS AND NATURAL RESOURCES: A SYNTHESIS OF THE LITERATURE

A primary way that natural resources affect a locality is through the demand for labor, with greater extraction requiring more workers. Shifts in labor demand can be measured through changes in employment and earnings, the main labor market outcomes, or through changes in the population and income, more generally. These changes may spillover into the nonresource economy, leading to greater overall effects or possibly crowd out; be spread unequally across the population, thereby altering the distribution of income and the poverty rate; or influence educational attainment, as people choose between additional schooling and work. In this review, the literature linking natural resources to local labor markets is synthesized by organizing existing studies according to their resource measurement and the outcomes that they consider. This synthesis provides an accessible guide to a literature that has boomed in recent years. It also identifies promising avenues for future research and lays a foundation to further generalize the evidence through an eventual meta‐analysis.     

THE ROLE OF LAW IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A LITERATURE REVIEW

Abstract Compared with other explanatory variables, such as capital accumulation, technological innovations, geographical endowments, economic openness, and cultural factors, institutions, especially legal institutions have been regarded as a crucial condition for economic growth in recent years. The importance of legal rules is systematically revealed by a series of cross‐country econometric studies conducted by La Porta et al., who claim that legal origins are central to understanding the divergence in living standards across the regions and countries of the world and, compared with civil law countries, especially those countries with French civil law tradition, common law countries have enjoyed superior economic outcomes. The controversies set off by La Porta et al.'s proposition indicate that there are a number of questions that are difficult to explain by La Porta et al.'s theory, and hence call for more work on comparative analysis of different legal families before a consensus can be reached.     

THE DECADES‐LONG DISPUTE OVER SCALE EFFECTS IN THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The so‐called “new growth theory” is characterized by the now Nobel Prize winning insight that ideas are a nonrival input to and output from endogenous investment in innovation. Nonrivalry implies increasing returns to scale, but this also unintentionally creates an empirically disputed scale effect that a growing population implies an ever‐increasing growth rate. Empirical evidence supports fully‐endogenous growth without scale effects, but theoretical issues sustain the decades‐long dispute over exactly how to negate the scale effect. This article surveys theoretical approaches to resolving the scale effect and shows how four generations of endogenous growth theory are defined by the maturing of modeling techniques for constraining increasing returns. The synthesis suggests that the dispute over scale effects is really a narrative about how the powerful application of increasing returns has followed a standard theoretical development pattern. This implies that a fourth generation is now emerging that negates the scale effect while retaining fully‐endogenous growth without relying on assumptions of linearity. Instead, the market response to excessive increasing returns to innovation constrains explosive growth by expanding the market, rather than by a linear assumption. This latest class of endogenous growth models may be the final chapter to resolving the long‐running dispute.