Efficient use of commodity futures in diversified portfolios

We provide evidence on the role of commodity futures in portfolios comprised of stocks, bonds, T‐bills, and real estate. Over the period investigated (1973–1997), Markowitz optimization over a range of risk levels gives substantial weight to commodity futures, thereby enhancing the portfolios’ returns. We find dramatically different results when we use a simple ex ante measure of monetary stringency to dichotomize the sample into expansive‐versus‐restrictive monetary‐policy periods. In periods characterized by restrictive monetary policy, commodity futures are shown to have substantial weight in the efficient portfolios, with significant return enhancement at all levels of risk. In periods characterized by expansive monetary policy, commodity futures are shown to have little or no weight in the efficient portfolios, with no return enhancement at all levels of risk. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:489–506, 2000     

Pricing efficiency of the S&P 500 index market: Evidence from the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts

Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (SPDRs) are exchange traded securities representing a portfolio of S&P 500 stocks. They allow investors to track the spot portfolio and better engage in index arbitrage. We tested the impact of the introduction of SPDRs on the efficiency of the S&P 500 index market. Ex‐post pricing efficiency and ex‐ante arbitrage profit between SPDRs and futures were also examined. We found an improved efficiency in the S&P 500 index market after the start of SPDRs trading. Specifically, the frequency and length of lower boundary violations have declined since SPDRs began trading. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that SPDRs facilitate short arbitrage by simplifying the process of shorting the cash index against futures. Tests of pricing efficiency comparing SPDRs and futures suggested that index arbitrage using SPDRs as a substitute for program trading in general results in losses. Although short arbitrages earn a small profit on average, gains are statistically insignificant. A trade‐by‐trade investigation showed that prices are instantaneously corrected after the presence of mispricing signals, introducing substantial risk in arbitraging. Evidence in general supported pricing efficiency between SPDRs and the S&P 500 index futures—both ex‐post and ex‐ante. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:877–900, 2002     

Hedging long‐term commodity risk

This study focuses on the problem of hedging longer‐term commodity positions, which often arises when the maturity of actively traded futures contracts on this commodity is limited to a few months. In this case, using a rollover strategy results in a high residual risk, which is related to the uncertain futures basis. We use a one‐factor term structure model of futures convenience yields in order to construct a hedging strategy that minimizes both spot‐price risk and rollover risk by using futures of two different maturities. The model is tested using three commodity futures: crude oil, orange juice, and lumber. In the out‐of‐sample test, the residual variance of the 24‐month combined spot‐futures positions is reduced by, respectively, 77%, 47%, and 84% compared to the variance of a naïve hedging portfolio. Even after accounting for the higher trading volume necessary to maintain a two‐contract hedge portfolio, this risk reduction outweighs the extra trading costs for the investor with an average risk aversion. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:109–133, 2003     

Pricing dynamics of index options and index futures in Hong Kong before and during the Asian financial crisis

This article studies the impact of the Asian financial crisis on index options and index futures markets in Hong Kong. We employed a time‐stamped transaction data set of the Hang Seng Index options and futures contracts that were traded on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange. The results show that during the crisis period, the arbitrage profits, and the standard deviations of these profits increased in both ex‐post and ex‐ante analyses. In a market turbulent time, market volatility brings a higher arbitrage profit level. However, despite the increased market volatility, the profitability of the arbitrage trades declined substantially with longer execution time lags in the ex‐ante analysis. This suggests that the HSI futures and options markets are mature and resilient. A multiple regression analysis on the ex‐post arbitrage profit also suggests that there were structural changes during the Asian financial crisis and the Hong Kong government intervention periods. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 145–166, 2000     

The drift factor in biased futures index pricing models: A new look

The presence of bias in index futures prices has been investigated in various research studies. Redfield ( 11 ) asserted that the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract traded on the U.S. Cotton Exchange (now the FINEX division of the New York Board of Trade) could be systematically arbitraged for nontrivial returns because it is expressed in so‐called “European terms” (foreign currency units/U.S. dollar). Eytan, Harpaz, and Krull ( 4 ) (EHK) developed a theoretical factor using Brownian motion to correct for the European terms and the bias due to the USDX index being expressed as a geometric average. Harpaz, Krull, and Yagil ( 5 ) empirically tested the EHK index. They used the historical volatility to proxy the EHK volatility specification. Since 1990, it has become more commonplace to use option‐implied volatility for forecasting future volatility. Therefore, we have substituted option implied volatilities into EHK's correction factor and hypothesized that the correction factor is “better” ex ante and therefore should lead to better futures model pricing. We tested this conjecture using twelve contracts from 1995 through 1997 and found that the use of implied volatility did not improve the bias correction over the use of historical volatility. Furthermore, no matter which volatility specification we used, the model futures price appeared to be mis‐specified. To investigate further, we added a simple naïve δ based on a modification of the adaptive expectations model. Repeating the tests using this naïve “drift” factor, it performed substantially better than the other two specifications. Our conclusion is that there may be a need to take a new look at the drift‐factor specification currently in use. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:579–598, 2002     

Futures hedging using dynamic models of the variance/covariance structure

Dynamic futures‐hedging ratios are estimated across seven markets using generalized models of the variance/covariance structure. The hedging performances of the resultant dynamic strategies are then compared with static and naïve strategies, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample. Bayesian‐adjusted hedge ratios also are employed as error purgers. The empirical results indicate that the generalized dynamic models are well specified and that their use in determining optimal hedge ratios can lead to improvements in hedging performance as measured by the volatilities of the returns on the optimally hedged position. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:241–260, 2003     

Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio and futures trading

We derived an intertemporal capital asset pricing model in which the mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition. We obtained this result by modeling a frictionless, continuously open financial market in which nonredundant futures contracts are available for trade, in addition to cash assets. Introducing such contracts modifies the way investors optimally allocate their wealth. Their portfolios then comprise the riskless asset, a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of cash assets, and a perturbed mean‐variance‐efficient portfolio of futures contracts. Furthermore, a (3 + K) mutual fund separation is obtained, with K being the number of economic state variables, in lieu of the usual (2 + K) fund separation. Mean‐variance efficiency of the market portfolio is a necessary condition only when cash assets are the sole traded assets. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:329–346, 2001     

The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio

Hedging strategies for commodity prices largely rely on dynamic models to compute optimal hedge ratios. This study illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases more after a positive shock than after a negative shock of the same magnitude) in modeling the variance–covariance dynamics. We show by in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasts that a commodity price index portfolio optimized by an asymmetric BEKK–GARCH model outperforms the symmetric BEKK, static (OLS), or naïve models. Robustness checks on a set of commodities and by an alternative mean‐variance optimization framework confirm the relevance of taking into account the inventory effect in commodity hedging strategies.     

Panel quantile regressions for estimating and predicting the value-at-risk of commodities

Using a flexible panel quantile regression framework, we show how the future conditional quantiles of commodities returns depend on both ex post and ex ante uncertainty. Empirical analysis of the most liquid commodities covering main sectors, including energy, food, agriculture, and precious and industrial metals, reveal several important stylized facts. We document common patterns of the dependence between future quantile returns and ex post as well as ex ante volatilities. We further show that the conditional returns distribution is platykurtic. The approach can serve as a useful risk management tool for investors interested in commodity futures contracts.     

A Study of Arbitrage Efficiency Between the FTSE‐100 Index Futures and Options Contracts

Despite the importance of the London markets and the significance of the relationship for market makers, little published research is available on arbitrage between the FTSE‐100 Index futures and the FTSE‐100 European index options contracts. This study uses the put–call–futures parity condition to throw light on the relationship between options and futures written against the FTSE Index. The arbitrage methodology adopted in this study avoids many of the problems that have affected prior research on the relationship between options or futures prices and the underlying index. The problems that arise from nonsynchroneity between options and futures prices are reduced by the matching of options and futures prices within narrow time intervals with time‐stamped transaction data. This study allows for realistic trading and market‐impact costs. The feasibility of strategies such as execute‐and‐hold and early unwinding is examined with both ex‐post and ex‐ante simulation tests that take into consideration possible execution time lags for the arbitrage trade. This study reveals that the occurrence of matched put–call–futures trios exhibits a U‐shaped intraday pattern with a concentration at both open and close, although the magnitude of observed mispricings has no discernible intraday pattern. Ex‐post arbitrage profits for traders facing transaction costs are concentrated in at‐the‐money options. As in other major markets, despite important microstructure differences, opportunities are generally rapidly extinguished in less than 3 min. The results suggest that arbitrage opportunities for traders facing transaction costs are small in number and confirm the efficiency of trading on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:31–58, 2002     

Improving Diversification Opportunities for Socially Responsible Investors

Socially responsible investment (SRI) has grown enormously and has expanded globally in recent years. It allows SRI investors to reduce their portfolio risk assumptions through international diversification. In this context, the aim of this paper is twofold (i) to examine price and volatility linkages among the most representative SRI indexes for North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific employing a multivariate approach and (ii) to provide the out-of-sample performance of an optimal portfolio constructed on the basis of time-varying return and volatility forecasts from this specification approach. Our overall results show that using this technique, it is possible to reduce risk and out-perform the naïve rule, which is usually employed in this type of investment. These findings are relevant not only for academics but also for practitioners, especially for professional managers of SRI portfolios.     

Conditional OLS minimum variance hedge ratios

The paper presents a new methodology to estimate time dependent minimum variance hedge ratios. The so‐called conditional OLS hedge ratio modifies the static OLS approach to incorporate conditioning information. The ability of the conditional OLS hedge ratio to minimize the risk of a hedged portfolio is compared to conventional static and dynamic approaches, such as the naïve hedge, the roll‐over OLS hedge, and the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The paper concludes that, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, the conditional OLS hedge ratio reduces the basis risk of an equity portfolio better than the alternatives conventionally used in risk management. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:945–964, 2004     

Decimalization,ETFs and futures pricing efficiency

This study investigates the impact of decimalization (penny pricing) on the arbitrage relationship between index exchange‐traded funds and E‐mini index futures. The empirical results reveal that subsequent to penny pricing, there is a significant fall in the mean ex ante arbitrage profit, especially in the cases with higher transaction costs. Using the ordinary least squares and quantile regressions to control for the influences of changes in other market characteristics, it is found that the overall pricing efficiency has deteriorated in the post‐decimalization period. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, due to the lowered market depth and increased execution risks, the introduction of decimalization has in general resulted in weakening the ability and the willingness of arbitrageurs to initiate arbitrage trades, which subsequently leads to a reduction in the general efficiency of the cash/futures pricing system. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:157–178, 2009     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

Spot‐futures spread,time‐varying correlation,and hedging with currency futures

This article investigates the effects of the spot‐futures spread on the return and risk structure in currency markets. With the use of a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH framework, evidence is found of asymmetric effects of positive and negative spreads on the return and the risk structure of spot and futures markets. The implications of the asymmetric effects on futures hedging are examined, and the performance of hedging strategies generated from a model incorporating asymmetric effects is compared with several alternative models. The in‐sample comparison results indicate that the asymmetric effect model provides the best hedging strategy for all currency markets examined, except for the Canadian dollar. Out‐of‐sample comparisons suggest that the asymmetric effect model provides the best strategy for the Australian dollar, the British pound, the deutsche mark, and the Swiss franc markets, and the symmetric effect model provides a better strategy than the asymmetric effect model in the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. The worst performance is given by the naïve hedging strategy for both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample comparisons in all currency markets examined. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1019–1038, 2006     

Price relations among hog,corn, and soybean meal futures

This paper examines the relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures price series using the Perron (1997) unit root test and autoregressive multivariate cointegration models. Accounting for the significant seasonal factors and time trends, we find the three series are cointegrated with one single cointegrating vector, whose coefficients are comparable to the ratios used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Ex‐post trading simulations that utilize the cointegration results generate significant profits, suggesting that market expectations may not fully incorporate the mean‐reverting tendencies as indicated by the cointegration relations, and that inefficiency exists in these three commodity futures markets. Results from our ex‐ante trading simulations that employ the USDA ratios also provide some evidence in this regard. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:491–514, 2005     

ROBUST ASSET ALLOCATION WITH BENCHMARKED OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for finding robust portfolios when there is model uncertainty. It differs from the usual worst‐case approach in that a (dynamic) portfolio is evaluated not only by its performance when there is an adversarial opponent (“nature”), but also by its performance relative to a stochastic benchmark. The benchmark corresponds to the wealth of a fictitious benchmark investor who invests optimally given knowledge of the model chosen by nature, so in this regard, our objective has the flavor of min–max regret. This relative performance approach has several important properties: (i) optimal portfolios seek to perform well over the entire range of models and not just the worst case, and hence are less pessimistic than those obtained from the usual worst‐case approach; (ii) the dynamic problem reduces to a convex static optimization problem under reasonable choices of the benchmark portfolio for important classes of models including ambiguous jump‐diffusions; and (iii) this static problem is dual to a Bayesian version of a single period asset allocation problem where the prior on the unknown parameters (for the dual problem) correspond to the Lagrange multipliers in this duality relationship. This dual static problem can be interpreted as a less pessimistic alternative to the single period worst‐case Markowitz problem. More generally, this duality suggests that learning and robustness are closely related when benchmarked objectives are used.     

Overconfidence Mediates How Perception of past Portfolio Returns Affects Investment Behaviors

Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.     

General stopping behaviors of naïve and noncommitted sophisticated agents,with application to probability distortion

We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional that renders the problem time‐inconsistent. We study stopping decisions of naïve agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves' behaviors. When the state process is one dimensional and the payoff functional satisfies some regularity conditions, we prove that any equilibrium can be obtained as a fixed point of an operator. This operator represents strategic reasoning that takes the future selves' behaviors into account. We then apply the general results to the case when the agents distort probability and the diffusion process is a geometric Brownian motion. The problem is inherently time‐inconsistent as the level of distortion of a same event changes over time. We show how the strategic reasoning may turn a naïve agent into a sophisticated one. Moreover, we derive stopping strategies of the two types of agent for various parameter specifications of the problem, illustrating rich behaviors beyond the extreme ones such as “never‐stopping” or “never‐starting.”     

Crossing the borderline in strategic corporate philanthropy: Dangote and the construction of cement roads in Nigeria

Using the case of Nigeria's Dangote Group and an exploratory research technique, we critique CSR practices in a developing country context based on a three‐pillar model—traditional CSR, strategic CSR and strategic business engagements. Our paper makes a unique contribution by revealing how a company can transform its strategic CSR into strategic business engagements that permit it to circumvent public procurement laws and secure public contracts at non‐competitive terms. We show how, in weak institutional and regulatory contexts, strategic CSR could be turned to a tool for rent extraction and profit maximization. We advocate for regulatory measures that impose ex ante and ex post limits on the extent to which firms can go in integrating CSR into their normal business operations. Based on the outcomes from this important African case study, we illustrate and propose the strategic business engagement model as a new framework for analysing the social benefits of strategic CSR practices in developing countries.