消费类电子产品供应链中的博弈问题综述

当供应链中的某个成员的某种行为发生变动时,会使整条供应链产生波及效应。不同的行为类型产生的波及效应的大小以及方向会有所不同,其相应的应对管理策略也就不同。因此,对供应链中各节点成员博弈行为的研究是整个波及效应研究的基础。本文将按照消费类电子产品供应链中从上游至下游这一顺序,分别介绍供应商与制造商,制造商与零售商,以及当供应链中加入为终端顾客提供服务之一因素时,制造商与零售商之间的博弈问题,旨在为供应链的波及效应的研究提供一定的参考。     

国家工程技术研究中心运行模式及路径选择研究

各国家工程技术研究中心的运作与经营模式具有不同的特点。本文从利益博弈机制和产权分析的角度,对国家工程技术研究中心的不同运行模式进行了理论阐述,并对其与依托单位、下游企业、科技部等相关利益主体的关系及路径选择基础进行了充分论证,指出当前研究中心的运行机制和模式是各利益相关主体利益博弈取得均衡后的结果,最后在此基础上从产权改革和外部支撑环境两方面提出政策建议。     

供应链金融缓解中小企业融资困境的优劣

中小企业的融资难题是阻碍其健康发展的主要原因。供应链金融打破了传统单一授信的信贷模式,对传统融资模式进行了创新,为解决中小企业融资难题提供了新途径。文章首先构建中小企业与金融机构信贷博弈模型,研究中小企业融资困境的成因,对比有无供应链时中小企业融资环境的差异,以此展现供应链金融对缓解中小企业融资困境存在的优势;并进一步构建供应链中的企业联盟与金融机构博弈模型,来阐述供应链金融在缓解中小企业融资困境存在的劣势。最后,对当前发展供应链金融缓解中小企业融资困境提出了若干意见。     

不同力量对比供应链中制造商竞争策略研究

笔者采用纳什博弈和斯坦伯格博弈结构,分别表述力量对等和力量不对等供应链中零售商和制造商的决策过程,分4种情形探讨了2个制造商在不同竞争策略下,供应链中成员的最优决策。从制造商的角度出发,着重分析在不同力量结构的供应链中制造商的竞争策略选择。研究结果表明:制造商竞争策略的选择依赖于产品的差异性及生产成本的大小。     

供应链合作的动态过程及合作契约

分析了供应链合作的关联要素及动态过程，认为供应链合作是一个合作目标、关联要素、合作行为的互动过程。对供应链合作进行了博弈分析，得出了不同契约下的均衡结果及相关结论。     

敏捷供应链中信息传递机制的博弈分析

对敏捷供应链中信息传递的机制进行了研究,分析了敏捷供应链中存在的信息不对称产生的原因,以及由此引起的逆向选择问题和道德风险问题。并针对一个简化的供应链,建立了单向多级信号博弈展开模型,以研究供应链的各环节在信息不对称的环境下进行信息传递的真实决策过程,为敏捷供应链中各企业的行为决策提供了支持。     

基于银企联盟供应链的中小企业融资分析

融资困难困扰着中小企业的生存与发展,解决这个问题需要创新的思路.银企联盟供应链的核心企业作为担保方,将从合作银行获得的信用额度分配给中小企业,使其获得贷款的模式,能够较好地克服信息不对称产生的银企间的博弈行为,在解决中小企业融资困难的同时,降低银行信贷风险,维护供应链的稳定与安全,获得中小企业与核心企业、银行的多赢结果.     

基于中药安全探讨中药材供应链管理模式

中药安全日益受到人们的重视。中药安全是一个综合性的概念,从中药原材料采购、生产、流通和使用,中药生命周期的每一个环节都会影响到中药安全,中药材供应链是中药安全体系中的重要组成部分,是中药安全影响因素的载体。为了保障中药安全,我们必须构建实行中药材供应链管理,才能避免单纯以市场为纽带进行协调的流通模式的弊端,从而达到以最小的成本,得到最好的服务的目的,以实现最高的效益。我们将构建确保中药安全的中药材供应链管理的基本模式,并对该模式将如何运作进行研究。同时,对中药材供应链管理模式进行博弈分析。     

电子商务中买卖方之间信用模式选择的博弈论分析

电子商务是一种新的经营理念和商务模式，信用是制约电子商务进一步发展的主要瓶颈。企业在电子商务中信用模式和信用程度的选择是虚拟市场中交易者之间相互博弈的结果。     

物流地产供需双方的演化博弈模型

为了研究地产开发商和有物流需求的企业的合作行为,本文建立了一个物流地产供需双方演化博弈模型,讨论了不同初始状态、不同复制动态方程下的地产开发商和有较大物流需求的企业的演化博弈策略。通过分析不同策略下博弈双方的行为及收益,认为在博弈的演化过程中,各方应该考虑合作剩余收益、租金和物流地产的开发成本等因素,按照合作剩余收益最大化的原则,从长远角度考虑博弈双方的利益来制定双赢策略,从而促进物流地产业的可持续发展。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.