A reliability engineering approach for forecasting technological breakthroughs

One of the major attributes determining system reliability, the one that has received the most thorough and systematic study for many years, is system survival function. A “survival function” is a mathematical formula relating the probability of satisfactory performance of a system to time. Here, probability of satisfactory performance is synonymous with probability of nonfailure or probability of survival of a performing system.In breakthrough analysis of complex technological systems, the situation is somewhat similar but opposite to the above system reliability case. For breakthrough forecasting, the problem is to determine the probability of occurrence of success of a nonperforming system. Thus this paper presents a quantitative methodology for forecasting technological breakthroughs using a new concept of “attainability function,” derived in a similar fashion as the “reliability function.”     

Technological forecasting and assessment: Science and/or mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

Influence of decision styles on use of decision models

This article discusses how the “decision style” of an administrator influences the adoption and use of particular decision models. Several “interactive” and “analytical” decision models often used to guide decision making are described and critiqued to point out their virtues and deficiencies. Propositions are suggested that contend that “systematic,” “judicial”, “speculative”, and “intuitive” styles have clear-cut preferences for a particular decision model. This model seems to be used, even when another would be more suitable. Effective decision makers are postulated to adapt their styles, or at least to see the benefits of different styles. Mixed-mode models are proposed that seem to simulate the behavior of successful decision makers.     

Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations

This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common “wicked” problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the “wicked” problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods.     

Nuclear future - A case of method bias?

This study points out major errors in an article published in this journal by Nitta and Yoda [1] titled, “Challenging the Human Crisis: ‘The Trilemma.’” Nitta and Yoda forecast a nuclear future based on assumptions of a high energy demand, scarce oil reserves, and a low potential of renewable energy sources. The validity of these assumptions is analyzed, and they are found inaccurate. Nitta and Yoda also use different forecasting techniques for different technologies that encourage the prospects of nuclear power and discourage the future of solar energy. No arguments are provided for the different choices of forecasting methods. When discussing future alternatives, the approach taken is of vital importance, because the method itself often affects the result.     

On determining the future impacts of research and development solutions

The concept of a “forecasting graph” is used to develop answers to questions concerning the achievement of scientific and technological developments, the required time, estimates of manpower, equipment, and finacial resources for alternative pathways.     

Do misalignments predict aggregated stock-market volatility?

This paper considers forecasting regressions of “realized volatility” on a misalignment measure. Results show that this misalignment measure is useful to predict in and out-of-sample stock-market volatility at monthly horizons. The analysis also suggests a threshold effect.     

Toward an analytical industry classification

Two kinds of difficulties retard progress in technological forecasting uncertainties inherent in the subject itself and imprecision in its concepts. The latter difficulty exists whenever words have to be used in a general or traditional sense due to the lack of an agreed-upon operational definition. One such word and concept is industry [1]. The object of this paper is to present an operational definition of “industry” for use in forecasting, R&D, or innovative contexts, and to show how predictive, rather than just analogue, statements can then be made about industry and industries.     

A Primer on Logistic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software

This article describes the mathematics underlying the Loglet Lab software package for loglet analysis. “Loglet analysis” refers to the decomposition of growth and diffusion into S-shaped logistic components, roughly analogous to wavelet analysis, popular for signal processing and compression. The term “loglet” joins “logistic” and “wavelet.” Loglet analysis comprises two models: the first is the component logistic model, in which autonomous systems exhibit logistic growth. The second is the logistic substitution model, which models the effects of competitions within a market. An appendix describes the current status of the software.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Can Japan succeed in “Chigyo-ka” (intelprise-formation)?

There are two aspects in today's information revolution that started in the late 1970s. The first is an aspect referred to as “the third industrial revolution,” which triggers the transition to the “21st century system of Industrialization.” The information revolution in this sense brings the creation of new “breakthrough industries (new multimedia industries).” And the second aspect of the information revolution possesses the characteristics of both a technological revolution and a social revolution and brings about the arrival of the third phase of the historical evolutionary process of the modern civilization, which proceeds through three phases, namely “militarization, industrialization, and then informatization.”If the bearers of modern industrialization are a “group of enterprises” that have been engaged in the race in order to gain “wealth” (generalized means of exchange/exploitation power), and if these enterprises' activities have been exercised in the world market where their products have been sold, then it is appropriate to call the bearers of informatization a “group of intelprises.” They will be engaged in the race to gain “wisdom” (generalized means of persuasion/induction power), then stages of their activities can be called a “global intelplace” where “sharables,” that is, information and knowledge, will be disseminated. And now, toward the 21st century, the third phase of modernization, which can be called the “informatization/intelprise formation” or the “wisdom game” (intellectualism), is about to begin.Japan's “ie society (a society based on the ie principle—literally, it means “house” but here it is interpreted as cultural principle for organizing a society), which has been going through the process of evolution on the Japan Archipelago, has developed a network-based organization with little stratification within its infrastructure. In this sense, Japanese society can be characterized as a “network-oriented society” in which intelprises and an intelplace in the broad sense have functioned as the essential components of the society since Middle Ages. In general, an intelplace and intelprises that operate actively within this framework serve as the flexible bases for different types of social relations and institutions, such as states and markets and eventually integrate these into the society to a certain extent. In fact, it took place quite regularly during the modernization “in the narrow sense,” or Westernization of Japanese society after the Meiji Restoration. There exist some problems, however. Some of the characteristics found in Japanese society may become obstacles to activities aimed at the sharing and promotion of information and knowledge in the global intelplace and Japanese participation in the “wisdom game.” Badly needed are serious efforts for Japanese intelprise-formation to reduce these obstacles as much as possible.     

Topological games at Princeton, a mathematical memoir

The games of the title are “Nash” (or Hex), “Milnor” (or Y), “Shapley” (or Projective Plane) and “Gale” (or Bridg-It) all of which were discovered (or re-discovered) in Princeton in 1948–1949. After giving the basic topological connections, I will discuss more recent ramifications related to computational complexity theory. A recurrent theme will be non-constructive proofs, or how we can know something can be done without having the slightest idea of how to do it.     

Unit and Fractional Roots at the Long Run and the Seasonal Frequencies in Macroeconomic Time Series

In this article, we show that macroeconomic time series may contain unit and fractional roots at both, at zero and at zero and at the seasonal frequencies. The importance of the root at the long run or zero frequency requires in many cases to consider this root at both, separately in an independent polynomial, and also included in the seasonal one. Several Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to examine cases when the root at the zero frequency is not appropriately considered. An empirical application based on the tests of Robinson, Peter M. “Efficient Tests of Nonstationary Hypotheses,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1994, pp. 1420–37 is also carried out at the end of the article.The author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Government of Navarra (“Ayudas de Formación e Investigación y Desarrollo”).     

On the value of human resources

One challenge for planners is to discover conditions under which a society has a positive and growing “net worth” in terms of its human resources and to bring about and maintain those conditions. We discuss the utility and validity of the concept of people as “assets” or “liabilities”, the structure and cultural contexts for a proposed model of the dynamics of value that account for opportunity costs; and links between information technologies and human resources management, including planned development of these resources.     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

The man-machine interface

The basic objective of this article is to define a composite measure of human capabilities that could also be used to measure the “skill” requirements of various manufacturing tasks. In the course of our research, however, we have come to the conclusion that most human workers (at least in the “semiskilled” categories) are not employed for their manual skills, or dexterity, but for a different purpose. Although our basic objective remains unchanged, our research focus has shifted to the emerging competition between human workers as machine process controllers in certain highly engineered environments, and the use of sensor-based, computerized systems for the same purpose.     

On optimality in collective institutional choice

Conditions are investigated under which democratic choice of the division of land between collective and “private” use and of the distribution of collective income between “needs” and “work” payments will produce a Pareto-optimal land allocation and optimal collective labor incentives. Sen's optimal rule for the degree of “needs” distribution is found to result from self-interested voting on this parameter when the distribution of labor inputs is unskewed or when votes are weighted by labor contributions. This in turn increases the optimality of land allocation, which can be further improved by a simple rental scheme. J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1981, 5(4), pp. 392–403. Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island.     

What crises could teach us about complexity and systemic management: The case of the Nestucca oil spill

In this article we attempt to uncover some systemic management principles for the better management of complex issues. Taking a pragmatic approach we have expanded the case methodology proposed by John Dewey to the case study of a major crisis. By proposing that crises allow for a better apprehension of complexity, we study the changes which were carried out or not, to this day, after the 1988 Nestucca oil spill that occurred in Canada only three months prior to the Exxon-Valdez disaster. After conducting a linear and systemic analysis of the crisis, we propose that the changes institutionalized thus far spring mostly from what we call “behavioral” and “paradigmatic” learning which are weak for addressing complex issues. Proposing that 15% of the people we have interviewed where able to derive a “systemic learning” from this crisis, we suggest several unlocking strategies that allow these systemic lessons to be institutionalized.