经济政策不确定性、金融摩擦与宏观经济

基于Baker的经济政策不确定性指数和平滑转移向量自回归模型,分析了经济政策不确定性对宏观经济的影响及其传导机制。研究表明:经济政策不确定性的冲击通过实物期权机制对投资和产出造成短期的负面影响,加大了宏观经济的波动性;金融摩擦使经济政策不确定性冲击对宏观经济的影响具有非对称性;金融摩擦的程度以外部融资溢价水平来衡量,在外部融资溢价水平"高"的情况下,经济政策不确定性的冲击对宏观经济的不良影响更大。     

Co-ordinating Stability: Some Remarks on the Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU

The launch of Monetary Union in Europe has prompted calls for enhanced policy co-ordination among economic policy-makers. This paper sounds a note of caution and argues that the problem of policy co-ordination needs to be placed in the broader context of the efficient assignment of tasks and responsibilities among separate actors. In the presence of incentive and information problems, overly ambitious attempts at EXPLICIT forms of policy co-ordination may actually turn out to undermine the IMPLICIT co-ordination properties of the clear division of responsibilities enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty. A single monetary policy that is credibly geared to the maintenance of price stability and national fiscal policies that genuinely accept the constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact already go a long way in securing macroeconomic stability. Additional channels for dialogue among policymakers should be helpful to the extent that they enhance the understanding of individual responsibilities and do not dilute accountability.     

监管机构间博弈的金融监管非均衡与系统风险研究

文章通过对金融监管者之间的博弈行为研究发现,分业监管体制下监管机构之间的监管合作成本是导致监管制度漏洞的重要因素。以金融监管机构之间博弈为基础的监管者与金融机构的博弈结果显示,监管者可以通过对监管成本和处罚力度的动态调整实现监管博弈均衡。监管制度的均衡分析与微观形成机理结论的契合表明,降低监管成本比单纯加大对金融机构的处罚力度更有利于金融系统性风险的控制与化解。通过对美国应对2008年全球金融危机的金融监管实践分析和我国金融监管现状透视,模型结论得到了有效的印证。     

金融风险社会化的最后防线及我国的现实选择

金融风险社会化是金融风险从金融系统溢出，蔓延至实体经济、国家财政甚至社会公众的过程，这种风险扩散后患无穷。通过对历次金融危机的梳理，总结金融风险社会化的一般路径，厘清国家财政必须承担起金融风险社会化最后防线的责任，并参考国际经验和我国国情，提出防范金融风险社会化的政策建议。     

我国金融控股公司的构建:制度基础与途径选择

本文认为,在经济金融全球化发展趋势不断强化的格局下,中国金融业发展的关键是不断提升金融体系的整体国际竞争力。而提升金融体系整体国际竞争力的现实选择是借助金融控股公司这一组织机构安排大力发展综合性银行。在分业体制框架内,我国事实上已存在若干不同模式的金融控股公司,由于制度基础不健全,这些金融控公司还很不规范。因此,重塑制度基础是构建我国金融控股公司的关键。根据国际经验和我国金融业发展的现实,“母公司为非金融企业的金融控股公司模式”应当成为我国金融控股公司的构建目标模式,以商业银行为主体进行金融控股公司的构建应当是我国金融控股公司发展的主要方向或现实选择。     

金融稳定性与经济增长的机制分析——基于新兴市场国家和发达国家的两组数据

文章通过比较新兴市场国家和发达国家1994-2008年间金融稳定性对经济增长的作用机制发现,对于新兴市场国家而言,外债占GNP的比重和国际储备与外债比例的上升不利于金融稳定状态的保持,导致经济增长率下降,但总储蓄占GDP比例的上升和贸易额占GDP比重的提高会促进金融稳定,带动经济增长;而对于发达国家而言,海外证券投资与债券投资的增加以及实际利率的上升会维护金融稳定性,促进经济增长。由于一国金融稳定还受国际宏观因素的影响,因此国际金融体系的重建是保证各成员国金融稳定的重要内容。     

低碳经济背景下国际碳金融市场发展及风险研究

随着全球对气候问题的持续关注,碳金融市场发展也越来越被各国所重视。与传统意义上的金融相比,碳金融的核心是围绕着碳排放权展开的。因此,从碳金融的本质来看,碳金融与低碳经济是相辅相成的。目前国际碳金融市场具有碳交易规模飞速增长、基于配额的交易占据绝对主导地位、市场参与主体广泛及碳金融产品日益多样化、欧盟占据主要地位及欧元成为主要结算货币等特征,同时也具有系统性风险和非系统性风险。中国不仅要积极地参与国际碳金融市场,而且还要从全局的角度思考应对气候变化的国家战略问题,具体包括加强宣传力度、培育中介机构、落实政策支持、加强风险应对能力建设等方面。     

资源金融炒作与次债CDO精巧设计:为国际金融资本挖掘了坟墓

由美国"次贷危机"诱发的"金融海啸"的本质是资源金融炒作与次债CDO精巧设计"碰撞"的结果,是国际金融资本因贪婪给自己挖掘的坟墓。由此,我国应高度重视资本大规模流动的监测和对策研究,加强国际合作来限制资源金融的炒作,注重金融创新风险濡染机制的研究,完善对金融创新的有效监管。     

Germany in crisis: the unification challenge,macroeconomic policy shocks and traditions,and EMU

Conventional wisdom blames Germany's ongoing economic and fiscal crisis on the unification shock of the early 1990s and structural problems in labour markets. Challenging this view, this paper offers a fresh assessment that focuses on macroeconomic demand management. It is shown that Germany's fiscal crisis cannot be attributed to unification per se; it arose as a consequence of ill‐guided macroeconomic policies pursued in response to that event. Many structural problems that popped up along the way were mere symptoms of persistent macroeconomic mismanagement and protracted domestic demand stagnation. Arguably, systematically ill‐guided macroeconomic policies of this type are potent enough to wreck any real world economy, no matter how flexible it may be. Because Germany provided the blueprint for Europe's stability‐oriented macroeconomic policy regime, it comes as no surprise that a peculiar repeat of certain symptoms that started to arise in Germany a decade ago may now be observed across the euro area—protracted domestic demand weakness and inflation stickiness because of ‘tax‐push inflation’ in particular.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

Economic Ideas and Institutional Change: The Case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund

An intense discussion is taking place in international political economy on the influence of economic ideas on institutional change. Case studies so far have, however, mainly focused on the Western industrialised countries and research seems to be biased towards cases in which new ideas caused lasting institutional change. The present paper addresses these two shortcomings by analysing the case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund (SF). This case is an example both of the impact of global ideas on a non-Western emerging country and of a ‘near miss’ in the sense that imported neoliberal ideas failed to assert themselves enduringly. Paradoxically, it can be shown how the neoliberally based idea of the SF even contributed to the return to Soviet patterns of industrial policy. The main reason for this, we argue, is that the Fund's implementation was not preceded by economic and political debates. Accordingly, the imported institution of the SF had to be filled with ideational content after its implementation.     

论中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长理论——中国金融发展与经济增长关系的政治经济学

中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长的伟大实践走过了一条不同于传统金融发展与经济增长理论所描述的经济和金融自由化之路。中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长理论的逻辑是,强调中国共产党对金融工作的领导,强调通过国有所有权来实施金融控制战略,通过金融控制来有效降低或阻隔金融市场上的"羊群效应"和"传染效应",从而最大限度地去解决金融监管始终滞后于金融创新带来的现实或潜在系统性风险难题,牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线。新时代中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长理论在持续深化。在进一步寻求金融控制程度和降低金融系统性风险之间的最佳组合上,在让金融回归服务于实体经济的本质属性上,在发展普惠金融弥补市场天生之不足、促进公平增长上,都取得了重大进展。中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长理论和实践有助于实现金融发展与经济增长之间的良性互动,是中国特色社会主义金融发展与经济增长关系的政治经济学。     

Varieties of Economic Crisis,Varieties of Ideational Change: How and Why Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Policy Differ

One of the principal tasks facing post-crash academic political economy is to analyse patterns of ideational change and the conditions that produce such change. What has been missing from the existing literature on ideational change at times of crises however, is a sense of how processes of persuasive struggle, and how the success of those ‘norm entrepreneurs’ arguing for ideational change is shaped by two contextual variables: the most immediate material symptoms and problems that a crisis displays (the variety of crisis); and the institutional character of the policy subsystem that agents have to operate within to affect change. Introducing these two variables into our accounts of persuasive struggle and ideational change enables us to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of ideational change at times of crisis. The article identifies that a quite rapid and radical intellectual change has been evident in the field of financial regulation in the form of an embrace of a macroprudential frame. In contrast in the field of macroeconomic policy – both monetary and fiscal policy, many pre-crash beliefs remain prominent, there is evidence of ideational stickiness and inertia, and despite some policy experimentation, overarching policy frameworks and their rationales have not been overhauled. The article applies Peter Hall's framework of three orders of policy changes to help illuminate and explain the variation in patterns of change in the fields of financial regulation and macroeconomic policy since the financial crash of 2008. The different patterns of ideational change in macroeconomic policy and financial regulation in the post-crash period can be explained by timing and variety of crisis; sequencing of policy change; and institutional political differences between micro policy sub systems and macro policy systems.     

经济周期、经济转型与企业系统性信用风险——基于ECTM模型的实证研究

我国企业的系统性信用风险根源于经济周期和经济转型两方面,但已有研究对经济转型因素缺乏足够重视。文章构建了ECTM模型,筛选出对我国企业系统性信用风险有显著影响的两个经济周期因子和三个经济转型因子,并刻画其作用方向和程度。结论显示,未来我国企业所有制多元化程度的提高和金融市场化改革有助于降低企业的系统性信用风险,但外贸依存度的下降则可能给相关企业带来冲击。我国银行业应加强对企业系统性信用风险的监测和防范。     

Risk Appetite,Home Bias and the Unstable Demand for Emerging Market Assets

Home bias arises when the actual portfolio of an investor consists of a smaller proportion of foreign assets than that predicted by standard portfolio theory for the observed set of risks and returns on available assets. The existence and persistence of home bias undermines the theoretical case for the efficiency of international capital markets. In this paper we use data on UK pension fund portfolios to measure home bias, and find that this is doubly acute in the case of emerging market equity—a bias against overseas assets as a whole being further magnified by a bias against emerging markets within the foreign equity class as a whole. Moreover, contrary to the conventional assumption that risk aversion is both relatively low and stable over time (canonised in neoclassical theory by the derivation of constant relative risk aversion from the utility function itself) our finding that home bias fluctuates over time suggests that risk aversion is in fact time‐variant and path‐dependent. We sketch an alternative Keynesian approach in conclusion.     

转型背景下中国经济运行的复杂性及其政策协调选择

改革开放20多年来,中国经济取得了令人嘱目的成就.然而,随着进程的加快和改革的深入,一些深层次矛盾也日益凸现.这些矛盾主要表现为:产能过剩与通货膨胀的双重压力、流动性过剩和对外贸易顺差的不断加剧以及经济增长和失业率居高不下并存.这些矛盾的存在,集中体现了转型时期中国经济运行的特殊复杂性.这些矛盾并存所产生的影响,充分显示了解决问题的紧迫性.我们应通过财政政策、货币政策、产业政策、汇率政策和外贸政策的相互配合使用,实现宏观经济的平稳发展和市场化改革的有序进行.     

金融腐败:非规范融资行为的交易特征和体制动因

本文以改革进程中的非规范融资交易为研究对象 ,通过银行 -借款企业动态博弈和经验研究 ,归纳如下主要结论 :第一 ,在金融交易中 ,金融机构的腐败体现为利用资金配置权进行的两类寻租行为 ;第二 ,银行的寻租程度取决于改革进程中中央银行和财政对银行的转移支付和内控制度建设的相对力度比较 ,因而遏制融资腐败的方法是严格转移支付纪律 ,加强内控制度 ;第三 ,企业借款行为是在自筹资金和银行借款间进行的相对成本比较 ,企业被动选择行贿 (交租 ) ,因而其真实融资成本远远高于名义法定金融机构贷款利率 ;第四 ,由于存在转移支付机制 ,企业与银行的非规范金融交易的实质是对中央银行和财政转移支付的分割 ;第五 ,根据以上结论 ,民间借贷与正规金融价格实际是均衡的 ,不能简单定义民间借贷是高利贷 ,如果如此定义 ,则正规金融也同样具备高利贷特征。     

我国经济过剩运行的制度成因与相关政策选择

分析我国经济过剩运行的成因与寻求刺激经济增长, 走出经济过剩的政策措施, 是目前经济理论界与实践界的一个非常关注的问题。本文运用马克思经济过剩理论, 从市场、供给、需求等多角度分析我国经济过剩的特殊制度成因, 并从中推出相应的政策选择。     

技术范式转换、新兴产业演化与金融资本角色转变：国际经验与我国政策选择

经济长波中每一次的技术革命都会带来范式的转换,新兴产业也将随之出现,进入动态的演化过程。新旧范式转换中出现的经济短期失衡将导致金融泡沫出现,金融资本的角色将由前期的资金服务者转向生产的主导者,并在经历金融危机和经济调整后,又回归到其服务者的身份。促进金融资本与战略性新兴产业的协调发展,不仅要构建动态金融支持体系、强化政策对金融资本的引导作用,还要在经济失衡期重拾发展信心且避免过度的刺激政策,努力促进主导设计的成熟与市场需求的培育。     

我国应对国际金融危机的中长短期对策研究

本次国际金融危机主要是由美国次贷危机引发的,其最明显的特点是在全球化背景下,由过多的金融衍生产品创新造成的。新自由主义和深刻的政治原因、不合理的国际货币体系以及西方金融体系已经发生了深刻的变化,则是引发本次国际金融危机的背景。它给世界各国的金融部门、实体经济、文化格局所造成的影响是巨大的。我国不可避免地会受到冲击。因此,从长期看,必须改变经济增长结构;从中期看,必须完善经济要素的定价机制;从短期看,必须积极利用国家出台的各项政策。另外,应继续推进金融市场的开放,坚持金融创新。