农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素分析

文中从宏观和微观两个层面对农村劳动力向城市迁移的影响因素进行了分析,在此基础上建了多元线性回归的计量模型,并利用2000年到2009年间的统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,务农和进城打工的收入差距、进城打工收入与城镇居民收入之间的差距和城镇失业率这三个宏观层面的因素是影响农村劳动力向城市迁移的主要因素。     

The Long-Run Effect of Economic Development Policy on Resident Welfare in a Perfectly Competitive Urban Economy

This paper argues that evaluations of economic development policy must consider the long-run effect on resident welfare. The paper uses comparative static analysis of a closed, urban economy with an explicit labor market, to investigate the effect of policies that stimulate economic activity. The paper finds that such policies do not necessarily raise resident welfare, because of the competition for land between firms and households. On the other hand, the paper does find that income transfers increase resident welfare. This model assumes, however, that the land, capital, and labor markets are perfectly competitive. Therefore, these results are based on the assumption that an urban economy is efficient.     

Labor Force and Welfare Program Participation: The Effects of Welfare

A bstract This research examines the quantitative impacts of welfare program characteristics and individual characteristics on both the labor force and welfare participation decisions of low-income females with children . The participation decisions are estimated jointly as a bivariate probit model using data derived from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey for the years 1979 to 1990, inclusive. These data allow the estimation of the precise behavioral impacts of welfare. The main empirical findings are that effective welfare guarantee levels and the effective welfare tax rate on unearned income both significantly affect the probability of labor force and welfare program participation, but that such impacts are very small in magnitude. Implications for policy are discussed.     

城市商品住宅价格水平影响因素研究

商品住宅价格问题是社会关注的焦点问题.以全国35个重点城市1999年-2005年数据为基础,研究城市住宅价格水平的影响因素.研究显示,代表城市经济发展水平和居民收入水平、单位面积土地投入、城市区位和城市环境等侧面的职工平均工资、单位面积固定资产投资、人均铺装道路面积、距海岸线的距离、通过城市的国道数量、建成区绿化覆盖率这6个因素是影响城市住宅价格水平的主要因素.可以预期,当一个城市的这些因素发生相对变化和绝对变化的时候,城市的住宅价格水平必然会发生相应的变化.阳光充足、水资源丰富、交通便捷的近海地区城市的商品住宅价格变动幅度会由于经济发展、人口增加、区住条件进一步优化、投入加大等各种条件的较大变化而高于其他城市.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

城镇居民收入水平对零售业与批发业影响的实证研究——基于协整和向量自回归模型

文章选取1995年-2008年我国城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入和零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额的时间序列数据,通过基于VAR模型的协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的有机结合进行研究,发现上述序列间存在长期均衡。对标准化协整方程和误差校正模型的分析表明,我国城镇居民收入水平和零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额之间形成了长期的、稳定的关系,且城镇居民收入水平是零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析和方差分解均显示,城镇居民收入水平在过去十四年内对零售业、批发业产生了持续性的影响。     

工业机器人应用对城镇居民收入差距的影响

研究目标:实证研究工业机器人应用对城镇居民收入差距的影响,并对相关影响机制进行探讨。研究方法:运用双向固定效应模型、工具变量等方法进行因果推断。研究发现:工业机器人的应用显著拉大了城镇居民的收入差距,通过多种稳健性检验和内生性处理后,结论仍然成立。机制分析表明,工业机器人的应用通过对劳动力市场中不同群体就业机会和工资水平的异质性影响进而对整体的收入差距产生作用。此外,分样本回归发现,工业机器人引起的收入差距扩大作用更多地表现在低收入、低教育地区。研究创新:首次利用中国家庭追踪调查和工业机器人使用数据进行研究,并对相关机制进行深入探究。研究价值:从劳动力市场的角度进行分析并为政府决策提供参考。     

城市发展与住房意愿支付价格

以城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和反映城市生活质量的各类宜居性指标建立了中国35个主要城市的城市发展与住房需求关系的模型,并以此估计了城市住房意愿支付价格。实证结果表明,城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和以各类宜居性指标反映的城市生活质量可以解释70%左右住房价格的城市间差异。虽然城市劳动收入对住房意愿支付价格的影响仍然很大,但随着社会经济的发展,中国主要城市的生活质量对住房意愿支付价格增长的贡献有逐步增大的趋势。     

The Traditional Industrial Sector in Developing Countries: An Update on Its Role and Functioning

A bstract . In the theory of urban labor markets in less developed countries , levels of traditional industrial sector incomes, are a key determinant of modern sector skilled wages (directly through the external labor market) and unskilled wages (indirectly through operations of internal labor markets ). Data on traditional sector incomes for 40 urban areas are assembled from a variety of sources; the quality of these data and needs for future data collection are critically appraised. The data are then used to conduct a preliminary test of the labor market model. In general, the predictions of the model are supported by these tests     

Opportunity, Subculture and the Economic Performance of Urban Ethnic Groups

A bstract . An attempt is made to account for age-specific differences in economic performance among 14 ethnic groups living in the nation's nine largest metropolitan areas, by regression analysis of 1950 U.S. Census data. A large proportion of the variance in occupational structure, income, unemployment, and labor force status is accounted for by variations in urban opportunities, relative group size and the members' educational attainment. With the specified economic factors held constant, ethnic factors—nationality and nativity—are associated with residual differences in economic performance. These residual ethnic influences as well as ethnic differences in marital, educational, and labor force status suggest that differences in ethnic subculture have important economic consequences.     

A Cross‐Country Analysis of the Risk Factors for Depression at the Micro and Macro Levels

Past research has provided evidence of the role of some personal characteristics (age, gender, religion) as risk factors for depression. However, few researchers have jointly examined the specific impact of each characteristic and whether country characteristics (economic performance and others environmental factors) change the probability of being depressed. In general, this is due to the use of single‐country databases. The aim of this article is to extend previous findings by employing a much larger dataset and including the above‐mentioned country effects. We estimate probit models with country effects (model I) and we also explore linkages between specific environmental factors and depression (model II includes variables such as per capita Gross Domestic Product and the GINI index). The dataset for this research comes from the 2007 GALLUP Public Opinion Poll that allows us to consider a large and widely heterogeneous set of micro‐data. Findings indicate that depression is positively related to being a woman, adulthood, divorce, widowhood, unemployment, and low income. Moreover, we provide evidence of the significant association between economic performance and depression. Inequality raises the probability of being depressed, specially for those living in urban areas. Finally, we find that some population characteristics such as age distribution and religious affiliation facilitate depression.     

Comparing Time Series Cross-Section Model Specifications: The Case of Welfare State Development

In recent years, an impressive number of pooled time series (TSCS) cross-section models have been estimated in order to test hypotheses on welfare state development. Although most of these models share several of the variables, they can often be distinguished by the model specification adopted. This begs the question: what is the appropriate specification for modeling welfare state development? In order to answer this question some leading specifications are evaluated with respect to their ability to meet the theoretical assumptions about the theory of welfare state evolution in addition to the econometric canons on panel analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are the following. First, all specifications in levels are econometrically unfounded because most of the variables typically used for analyzing this topic cannot be considered to be stationary. Second, although a first difference model performs better from an econometric point of view, it is unable to test the hypothesized long-term relationships underlying welfare state dynamics. Third, and more importantly, the single equation error correction model represents the best pooled TSCS specification for modeling welfare state development since it is able tocapture long-run effects even in the presence of nonstationary processes.     

ECONOMIC WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS: A CGE MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR COLOMBIA

In this paper, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model is used to analyze the effects of an ex ante legalization of drugs on the Colombian economy. The model consists of 11 productive sectors, 3 different labor force categories with unemployment, and 20 households divided by income and location. Changes in wages and migration are estimated using a labor participation model, and a NIDS estimates the demands of the households. Changes in household economic welfare, measured by changes in income and prices (CV and EV measurements), are very sensitive to the reinvestments that the government makes in the economy. By analyzing six different scenarios with different assumptions about changes in drug prices, investments of the government, and the termination of the armed conflict, the results suggest that economic welfare improves when the government reinvests military expenditures in other productive sectors or when the ‘economy of war’ continues and the legalization does not end the armed conflict.     

我国个人所得税改革的误区及其突破

我国个人所得税改革存在一定的误区:税制改革的重点在于流转税、当前个税属于综合与分类相结合的税收模式、劳动所得作为个税的改革核心等。反思改革误区,我国个人所得税改革应实现三点突破:一是个税改革重点应由劳动所得转向资本所得,以股息和红利所得作为资本所得课税的改革核心,取消根据持有时间长短而差别计税的优惠政策;二是不断扩大个人所得综合征税的范围,逐步实现对资本所得的综合课税、以半二元模式作为我国综合与分类相结合的个税改革模式;三是缓步实现对个人所得税的"增税"调整,促进我国税制结构向"双主体"模式合理过渡。     

Congestion,agglomeration, and the structure of cities

Congestion costs in urban areas are significant and clearly represent a negative externality. Nonetheless, economists also recognize the production advantages of urban density in the form of positive agglomeration externalities. The long-run equilibrium outcomes in economies with multiple correlated but offsetting externalities have yet to be fully explored in the literature. Therefore, I develop a spatial equilibrium model of urban structure that includes both congestion costs and agglomeration externalities. I then estimate the structural parameters of the model using a computational algorithm to match the spatial distribution of employment, population, land use, land rents, and commute times in the data. Policy simulations based on the estimates suggest that congestion pricing may have ambiguous consequences for economic welfare.     

Determinants of urban population density functions: a procedure for efficient estimates

A model of urban population density functions is proposed that uses all available data on densities in urban areas. "This model postulates that population density at each census tract in each city is determined by city size, transportation costs, land supply, income and age of city." The model is applied to data on cities in Israel.     

A Simple Test for Convergence of Metropolitan Income in the United States

The prevalent test for income convergence used in many recent studies of convergence across spatial economic units in the United States is to use a regression equation in which income growth is regressed against the initial level of income (this is known as β convergence). That method, however, has been crtiticized as an instance of Galton's fallacy of regression. We devise a simple test for the income β-convergence hypothesis which does not suffer from “Galton's fallacy” and apply it to all of the metropolitan areas of the United States for the period 1969–1995. For the test we use two income measures: per capita personal income and average wages. Our results conclusively support convergence of per capita personal income and of wage per worker for metropolitan areas in the United States. We also test for σ convergence, the hypothesis of diminishing dispersion in income among places over time, and find no support for the hypothesis.     

An Applied General Equilibrium Model to Assess the Impact of National Tax Changes on a Regional Economy

This paper presents two versions of an applied general equilibrium model for the regional economy of Andalusia, Spain, that differ in the closure rule adopted to describe the behavior of the public sector. We use the model with to analyze the impact that the reform of the personal income tax (Act 40/98) implemented in Spain as a whole would have had on the Andalusian region in particular. The model is of the neoclassical variety and includes not only the productive sectors of the economy but also the foreign sector and the government, which are usually absent from theoretical general equilibrium models. Both versions of the model are calibrated by using a Social Accounting Matrix of Andalusia for 1995. The analysis shows that the reform is not self-financing, not even partially, despite governmental claims. It also indicates that there is a positive but smaller than anticipated economic stimulus. In welfare terms, we find that the category of Urban Salaried consumers is the one that benefits the most in real income terms.     

Competitive pressures on China: Income inequality and migration

How would perfect competition affect the distribution of income in China? To answer this question, we integrate the two main streams of income distribution theory, namely the functional and the personal income approaches. First, using a general equilibrium model of China comprising 30 sectors and 27 provinces, marginal productivities are used as competitive commodity prices and factor rewards. Second, the rewards are imputed to households using their compositions in terms of persons and factor endowment entitlements. The ensuing distribution is contrasted with the status quo. Less skilled labor would stand to lose and, therefore, inequality would mount. Skilled workers, managers and technicians would move from Western and Central China to Eastern China. These flows would be more than offset by a flow of unskilled labor from Eastern China to Central China. Our finding that Eastern China has too many unskilled workers, relative to the competitive benchmark, suggests that the Harris–Todaro mechanism operates in China. Competition would change the predominant nature of inequality from the rural–urban divide to differences between the social classes. Moreover, the existing negative relationship between development and inequality would evaporate.     

Can educational expansion improve income inequality? Evidences from the CHNS 1997 and 2006 data

Rapid education expansion and rising income inequality are two striking phenomena occurring in China during the transitional period. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data collected in 1997 and 2006, this paper studies how education affects individual earnings during the transitional process. We find that education accounts for only a small fraction of the personal earnings and income gap between different groups. We analyze the underlying mechanism of the impact of education on earning. More educated people tend to enter state-owned sectors, have a low probability of changing jobs in the labor market and work less time; all of these will have a pronounced impact on earning and income inequality. Quantile regression analysis shows that the low-income group's education return rate is lower, which helps little in narrowing the income gap. We decompose the earning gap into four factors: population effect, price effect, labor choice effect and unobservable effect. In explaining the earning gap in China, the price effect is more important than the population effect. The labor choice effect is also significant. We conclude that increasing educational expenditure with no complementary measures such as reforming the education system and establishing a competitive labor market helps less in reducing income inequality.