Route-charging policies for a central European cross-border upper airspace

The introduction of the Central European Air Traffic Services Upper Area Control Centre controlling the upper airspace of several European countries allows different route-charging policies. The impact of three charging scenarios on aircraft operators is examined. It is found that, without a compensatory mechanism, the policy of having different unit rates for each air navigation service provider would adversely affect regional and region-based carriers because the unit rate of the new provider would be significantly lower than the unit rates of the national providers controlling the lower airspaces.     

An assessment of delivery changes for UK terminal air navigation services

In order to meet government contestability policy ambitions, the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has undertaken a range of initiatives to create a competitive market for terminal air navigation services (TANS). This paper examines the critical dynamics underlying recent TANS service delivery changes at the nine United Kingdom airports that fall within the Single European Sky performance scheme (SES) using industry data and Porter's five forces model. Interviews with CAA, NATS and airport operators, along with publically available material, are used to explore the various elements impacting competition for TANS at these airports. Competition is intense among a very small number of companies. In addition to optimizing service cost, airport operators require greater value for money including alignment to strategic-operational goals, closer integration with other airside functions and payment structures that are performance based. Gatwick and Birmingham airports changed service provisions due to concerns about the value for money proposition offered by NATS Services Ltd (NSL). This paper also illustrates how competition has changed the customer orientation of NSL. It has been forced to evolve quickly from an expensive, perceived as somewhat arrogant, organisation to one that must be capable of aligning to the cost and service requirements of its customers. Importantly for the ATM industry this paper provides evidence that competition drives lower service costs and provides greater value for money for airlines and airport operators.     

An AHP analysis of air traffic management with target windows

The main operational concept of Single European Sky ATM Research Programme is the notion of business trajectory. One possible implementation is based on the notion of a contract of objectives; an agreement among the main air traffic management actors on spatial and temporal intervals called target windows. These 4D windows are defined prior to flight departure by the airlines, airports and air navigation service providers to increase punctuality. We use an analytic hierarchy process to assess the opportunity of implementing this concept by considering the views of experts. The findings indicate that there are net benefits for airlines and air navigation service providers but not for airports     

Air traffic predictability framework – Development,performance evaluation and application

The performance of the Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management (ATFCM) function relies fundamentally on the accuracy of air traffic predictability. Characterising this accuracy and assessing the potential benefits of increased accuracy is fundamental to enhance the performance of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and identifying areas that require improvement. This paper develops a framework to assess air traffic predictability. It validates the proposed framework with real operational data and applies it to the Maastricht Upper Area Control centre. The paper develops a methodology to assess the benefits of the deployment of enhanced predictability including capacity, resulting from improved operational concepts such as Airport-Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM).     

Do Public Service Obligations hamper the cost competitiveness of regional airlines?

Panel data is used to model the cost of a set European and US regional air carriers between 1991 and 2002 to see the extent to which they are affected by Public Service Obligations or the US's Essential Air Service Program. Pooling the data set indicates that the Public Service Obligations in Europe do affect the economic performance of carriers, but this is not the case for the US's Essential Air Service Program.     

The air transport market in Central and Eastern Europe after a decade of liberalisation – Different paths of growth

This paper describes the changes which are taking place in air transport for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia in the context of liberalisation. It also attempts to identify the common and specific factors that influence these processes in different markets of the region. The indicators for the development of the aviation market were designed using, among other things, statistics describing the infrastructure facilities and the level of activity in the market. Composite indicators and the weights for their individual components were constructed using a Multidimensional Comparative Analysis. The conditions under which changes were taking place in Central and Eastern European Countries were described with the help of selected socio-economic panel data. Finally, One-Way Fixed Effects and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) models describing the development of the aviation markets were estimated. The adopted procedure made it possible to identify the most important common and specific factors that exerted the greatest influence on the situation of air transport in CEE Countries. The very initiation of the liberalisation process undoubtedly had a significantly beneficial effect on the development of route networks and aviation activities as broadly understood. However, the pace of change depended not only on the progress of liberalisation itself, but also on the diverse socio-economic conditions in the individual countries. As a result of the analysis, the markets were divided into two separate groups, which in many respects are distinctly different from each other. The results of the estimation models also showed that there are strong unobservable determinants of development which are specific to individual countries.     

Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport

Air cargo demand is an important aspect of the operation and planning of private and public agencies responsible for airports. While most existing studies in this field include only geo-economic characteristics of airports and their hinterlands as explanatory variables, this study develops a gravity model of air cargo flows by trying to incorporate more factors that might influence international air cargo flows of an airport. The model is developed based on the panel data of air cargo services on scheduled routes at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport during the years 2004-2007. The results indicate that population, air freight rate and three dummy variables, including the regional economic bloc of the “Chinese Circle”(an informal partnership between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China), the Open Sky Agreements and long established colonial links, are key determinants of international air cargo flows from/to Taiwan. These results suggest a wider array of factors needs to be considered in policy.     

Performance evaluation of China's air routes based on network data envelopment analysis approach

Air routes are among the most important elements of civil aviation transport. Airlines' operations are mainly dependent on the structure and layout of air routes. This paper first divides the production process of air routes into two stages, allocation and transport, based on air route operational characteristics. Then, two network data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are proposed to analyze the efficiency of the system, allocation, passenger transport, and freight transport of 477 air routes. The research result demonstrates that the different constraints on intermediate measure in the network DEA models do affect the air routes’ efficiency significantly; Most air routes have high allocation efficiency and passenger transport efficiency, while they have low freight transport efficiency. Furthermore, the efficiencies of 82 airports are also analyzed after aggregating the efficiencies of the air routes.     

A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting

Air transport demand forecasting is receiving increasing attention, especially because of intrinsic difficulties and practical applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the air passenger time series usually has a complex behavior due to their irregularity, high volatility and seasonality. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), for short-term air passenger traffic prediction. The SSA is used for identifying and extracting the trend and seasonality of air transport demand and the artificial intelligence technologies, including ANFIS and IPSO, are utilized to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the demand. The HK air passenger data are collected to establish and validate the forecasting model. Empirical results clearly points to the enormous potential that the proposed approach possesses in air transport demand forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

Out of Prague: a week-long intermodal shift from air to rail transport after Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010

In April 2010, the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull considerably disrupted air travel across Europe. The grounding of air transport forced passengers to cancel journeys or find alternative means of transport. We analyse short-term intermodal shifts as a reaction to sudden changes in air transport availability. The question addressed is whether, and in what capacity, air passengers used railways when Prague International Airport was closed. To compare the degree of intermodal shift in Prague for particular European destinations during the closure, we calculated an InterModal Shift Index. We concluded that approximately 20% of passengers travelling to neighbouring countries and 6% of passengers travelling to more distant European destinations chose rail as an alternative. Following the airport closure, travellers were willing to choose rail transport as an alternative, but this willingness varies for different countries and areas.     

Air transport liberalisation and the development of third level airports in France

The liberalisation of air transport in the European Union encouraged a proliferation of new entry airlines exploiting the opportunities offered by minor airports. This was particularly apparent in France where “third level” airports experienced growth associated with start-up airlines using low-capacity aircraft. A summary of these trends is followed by a detailed examination of the Centre-East District, which demonstrates that the aspirations of both airlines and airports have been compromised by recent restructuring of the French airline industry. Far from providing greater competition, deregulation has increased the quasi-monopoly of Air France as market forces proved to be stronger than liberalisation. As a result, many third level airports face an uncertain future, especially in the light of the terrorist attack on the United States and its likely effect on airline economics.     

The impact of Air Service Agreement liberalisation: The case of Nigeria

The positive impact of air transport liberalisation as suggested by economic theories and empirical studies has inspired many developing countries like Nigeria to liberalise some of its Air Service Agreements (ASAs). This paper seeks to examine the extent to which international air service liberalisation has impacted upon Nigeria ten years after it was introduced. The research developed a cross-sectional model with passenger traffic as the dependent variable, while macroeconomic factors (trade and GDP), historical links, distance and ASAs (a proxy for liberalisation) served as independent or predictor variables. The analysis revealed a set of ASA stages in the country's policy-making process (restricted Bilateral Air Service Agreement, Open Skies Agreement and Yamoussoukro Declaration). Further analysis showed that the predictor variables were all significant in explaining passenger demand. The model demonstrated that the liberalisation of market access to the Open Skies Agreement level could stimulate traffic growth by at least 65 percent. The findings can assist in guiding policy and industry stakeholders in future decisions relating to liberalisation and ASAs.     

Effects of work shifts on fatigue levels of air traffic controllers

Fatigue is one of the most important issues since it is considered to be a potential risk factor for human error. Most research related to human fatigue in the aviation industry targets pilots, yet air traffic controllers also experience elevated levels of fatigue that affects aviation safety. Despite this, fatigue is often ignored in literature, as it is a mental and physical status that is difficult to measure. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced the concept of the Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) in Annex 6 in 2011, which provides suggestions to reduce aircrew fatigue. In 2016, the Civil Air Navigation Services Organization (CANSO), ICAO, and the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers' Associations (IFATCA) published the Fatigue Management Guide for Air Traffic Service Providers and for the first time proposed recommendations for air traffic controllers (ATCs) to address this issue. Based on the management guide, this research used the Samn-Perelli fatigue scale to measure air traffic controllers' fatigue levels in an international aerodrome control tower in Taiwan. The results indicated that there were significant differences between day/night shifts, time periods (shift start time, before break time, after break time, and shift end time), and various work schedules. The results also revealed the importance of the timing of the breaks and time on task when arranging work schedules. This research contributes to aviation safety by investigating ATCs' fatigue levels in current work shifts, thereby helping related units to improve and adjust shift schedules in order to reduce the risks related to fatigue.     

Measuring connectivity in the air freight industry

In this paper, we present an air transport connectivity model for air freight. For the purposes of this paper, connectivity is defined as all possible direct and indirect connections to or from an airport operated by wide-body aircraft, weighted for the quality of the connection in terms of transhipment and in-flight times. Using this model, we analyse the networks of seven European airports. Europe’s largest hub airports carry most air freight thanks to their extensive intercontinental passenger networks, while smaller airports with a strong focus on air freight carry large amounts of cargo on dedicated freighter aircraft. For air freight operations, the catchment area of an airport is much larger than it is for passenger services, as shipments are being trucked to their departure airport throughout all of mainland Europe. Since there are many airports sharing the same catchment area, potential competition for air freight is fierce. We found that well located regions between the four large European airports have access to large air freight networks, whilst regional air freight connectivity in northern and southern parts of Europe is substantially lower.     

An analysis of essential air service structure and performance

The US federal Essential Air Service program was established to subsidize air service to communities unable to retain commercial carriers after airline deregulation in 1978. In this paper, the subsidized service between program communities and commercial hub airports is investigated relative to several Essential Air Service planning objectives. Specifically, observed community hubbing activity is compared with that modeled to minimize hub access cost and maximize community accessibility within the commercial air transport system. Results highlight trends in system performance relative to these planning objectives and indicate that significant potential exists for enhancing the efficiency of the program in light of limited resources.     

Air transport globalization, liberalization and sustainability: post-2001 policy dynamics in the United States and Europe

Against a context of international crisis in the air transport industry, this paper examines the implications of the ways in which strategies developed by key air transport stakeholders, as well as the contemporary dynamics of the globalized, liberalized market place, impact directly on sustainability issues. More specifically, the paper has two objectives. First, it discusses the policy ramifications of the interrelationships between the concepts of globalization, liberalization, and sustainability within the air transport industry. Second, the paper explores the import of these interrelationships as they interconnect with stakeholder strategies in the differing geopolitical contexts of the US and EU. Particular attention is given to airline network and frequency strategies. The paper concludes that while the financial sustainability of the airline industry is the overwhelming concern today, if this is essentially the short-term crisis that the airline industry claims it to be, the longer-term predictions of air transport growth will again bring environmental sustainability issues to the fore.     

The ASEAN multilateral agreement on air services: En route to open skies?

The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations recently adopted a Multilateral Agreement on Air Services that seeks to liberalize market access and ownership and control requirements for air carriers in the region. The Agreement is a precursor to an eventual Single Aviation Market arrangement targeted for 2015. This article analyzes the key provisions of the Agreement and identifies the factors that will likely impact on the future SAM. In particular, there is uncertainty as to whether the SAM will go beyond third, fourth and fifth freedom relaxations to include important seventh freedom rights as well as more permissive ownership and control structures for air carriers. There are also lingering concerns over the loss of state sovereignty impacting on attempts to harmonize safety and technical standards, aviation security and competition policy.     

“Open skies” or open clubs? New issues for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

Air transport continues to lie outside the rules of the world trading system. Yet pressures for changes in the management of trade in air transport services are emerging within the bilateral system of regulation, particularly through United States efforts to negotiate so-called “Open Skies” arrangements, but also through new regional arrangements. A new method is outlined of exploiting the trends in regional cooperation and the pressures induced by the United States strategy to facilitate the liberalisation of air transport markets. This method applies the principles of what have been called “open clubs”. The principles include transparency and openness to new members as well as the absence of an intention to discriminate against outsiders. These principles are consistent with APEC's strategy of open regionalism. The paper suggests that APEC is a suitable process within which to develop the application of the open club idea and it outlines the manner in which its principles might be applied to air transport.     

Air transport liberalisation and airport dependency: developing a composite index

Air transport liberalisation in Europe has produced some major changes to the networks operated by airlines and the services available at airports. Within this context the degree of airport dependency in terms of market, spatial and temporal concentration is important to know from an economic geography and risk management perspective. A composite index called the Airport Dependency Index (ADI) is developed to measure airport dependency based on the concept of the relative Gini coefficient. Liberalisation has had varying impacts depending on the size and type of airport and so a comparison is made of the degree of dependency at a large sample of European airports using the ADI. The ADI has the potential to provide insight on the sustainability and worthiness of financing airport projects, and on whether airports should diversify further their activities by investing in the growth and expansion of their network.     

A matheuristic approach to the air-cargo recovery problem under demand disruption

Air cargo transport is subject to unpredictable changes in expected demand, necessitating adjustments to itinerary planning to recover from such disruptions. We study a flight rescheduling problem to react to cargo demand disruptions in the short run. To increase flexibility, we consider two different cargo assignment policies. We propose a matheuristic approach to solve the problem that provides high-quality solutions in a short computational time, based on column generation in which each subproblem is solved using an ad-hoc heuristic. The approach is tested on demand disruption instances containing up to 75 air cargo orders with different penalty levels. The results show that the proposed method improves profit by 54% over the solution generated by a commercial MIP solver within a 1-h time limit, and by 15% over the solution with the routes fixed as in the original flight planning that only allows cargo to be re-routed. We also show that there exist incremental benefits in the range of 3–5% by allowing cargo for a given order to be transported by various aircraft.