The emergence and effects of the ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) business model in the U.S. airline industry

The effects of “low cost carriers” (LCCs) such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways on the competitive landscape of the U.S. airline industry have been thoroughly documented in the academic literature and the popular press. However, the more recent emergence of another distinct airline business model—the “ultra low cost carrier” (ULCC)—has received considerably less attention. By focusing on cost efficiencies and unbundled service offerings, the ULCCs have been able to undercut the fares of both traditional network and low-cost carriers in the markets they serve.In this paper, we conduct an analysis of ULCCs in the U.S. aviation industry and demonstrate how these carriers' business models, costs, and effects on air transportation markets differ from those of the traditional LCCs. We first describe the factors that have enabled ULCCs to achieve a cost advantage over traditional LCCs and network legacy carriers. Then, using econometric models, we examine the effects of ULCC and LCC presence, entry, and exit on base airfares in 3,004 U.S. air transportation markets from 2010 to 2015. We find that in 2015, ULCC presence in a market was associated with market base fares 21% lower than average, as compared to an 8% average reduction for LCC presence. We also find that while ULCC and LCC entry both result in a 14% average reduction in fares one year after entry, ULCCs are three times as likely to abandon a market within two years of entry than are the LCCs. The results suggest that the ULCCs represent a distinct business model from traditional LCCs and that as the ULCCs grow, they will continue to play a unique and increasingly important role in the U.S. airline industry.     

Airlines-within-airlines strategies and existence of low-cost carriers

This paper investigates hub carriers’ airlines-within-airlines (AinA) strategies, intended to establish low-cost divisions offering nonstop flights on rim routes. An initial hub-spoke network is optimal if passenger differentiation between one-stop and nonstop services and via-hub time cost are small. If differentiation is substantial, a mixed one-stop and nonstop (point-to-point) network under AinA is optimal when via-hub time cost is small (large). Low-cost rivals on rim routes weaken AinA adoption and enhance welfare from a monopoly mixed network. In a perfect-substitute case, hub carriers may have excessive incentive to adopt AinA from a welfare viewpoint, especially, when low-cost rivals exist.     

Recovering costs through price and service differentiation: Accounting for exogenous information on attribute processing strategies in airline choice

The entry of low cost airlines has thrown out a challenge to all airlines to find ways of attracting passengers, through a mix of fare discounting, greater frequency, improved flight times and no-frill's levels of on-board service. These competitive strategies have an impact on cost recovery. As airlines seek business in an increasingly heterogeneous passenger market, a greater understanding of what matters to potential passengers in choosing an airline grows in importance. Traditional studies of passenger airline choice assume that all attributes matter, but some to a lesser extent. What happens to the empirical evidence on willingness to pay when specific attributes are totally ignored by particular passengers? In this paper, we examine the impact of individual-specific attribute processing strategies (APS) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of airline service and fare level choice. Modelling practice assumes that whilst respondents may exhibit preference heterogeneity, they employ a homogenous APS with regards to how they process the presence/absence of attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We demonstrate how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute of the SC task may be used in the estimation process, and how such information may be used to provide outputs that are attribute processing strategies segment specific.     

Cost and revenue synergies in airline mergers – Examining geographical differences

Deregulation, privatization and shifting demand patterns in the airline industry, combined with the emergence of low-cost airlines and rising fuel prices have increased the competitive pressure on legacy airlines. Since alliances do not deliver sufficient benefits to counterbalance these trends, many airlines have engaged in mergers to seek for additional cost and revenue synergies. An extent body of literature investigates the synergy potential in mergers and alliances, but there is no study on how synergies differ among mergers and what potential influence factors cause these differences. This paper aims at explaining differences in synergy estimates and realized synergies in recent airline mergers and places a special focus on geographical influence factors.The research methodology uses a comparative case study comprising six large airline mergers between 2003 and 2012 from Europe, North America and Latin America. After analyzing the cases individually, the pre-merger situation of the merging airlines, the synergy estimates and the realized synergies of the cases were compared.The results show considerable geographical differences in pre-merger cost structures, synergy estimates, and synergy realization. The European mergers present lower synergy estimates but also lower integration costs than mergers in the Americas. Whereas European airlines estimate cost synergies higher than revenue synergies, both North and Latin American airlines expect more revenue synergies than cost synergies from airline mergers. Only one merger showed superior post-merger profitability which indicates that the achieved synergies in the broad majority of the cases are insignificant.     

Commodity price pass-through in the US airline industry and the hidden perks of consolidation

How do changing jet fuel prices impact airline revenues? As expenses for jet fuel are one of the most relevant cost factors for airlines, their economic success largely depends on the ability to match changes on the cost side with an adaption on the revenue side. While previous studies primarily focused on the impact of fuel price changes to consumer prices, this paper empirically examines the ability of US airlines to pass-through lagged jet fuel prices to scaled operating revenues from an airline driven perspective. Our results suggest that the extent to which an exogenous increase in fuel prices can be passed on to revenues will deviate according to the competitive situation faced by an airline. Based on these findings our research should also be of interest for European policy makers who are discussing actions to exogenously increase jet fuel prices due to environmental reasons.     

The evolving landscape of Chinese aviation policies and impact of a deregulating environment on Chinese carriers

This paper examines the recent developments of China’s aviation polices focusing on airline consolidation, the opening up of the domestic aviation market, and the adoption of more liberal international aviation policy. It then goes onto assess the impacts of the above policies on the industry structure, the performance of major airlines, and the competitiveness of Chinese airlines in international markets. The study shows that the industry became more competitive following the opening up of the domestic aviation market. Although major airlines saw an increase in passenger volume and an improvement in load factors, the falling yield and rising costs make them difficult to grow profitably. Moreover, Chinese airlines largely failed to capitalise on building an international network and the majors were weak in international competition. Strategic use of aviation policy to build a strong and profitable airline industry is still a formidable task lying ahead for policymakers.     

The long-haul low-cost airline business model: A disruptive innovation perspective

This paper analyzes the impact of the long-haul low-cost (LHLC) airline business model on the air transport industry from a disruptive innovation perspective. We argue that the LHLC business model is set to stay; it is bound to penetrate the mass market that has, to date, been occupied by incumbent network carriers. It will thus lead to significant strategic adaptations in the long-haul air travel market where incumbents are well advised to prepare their responses. We provide a set of strategic response options along the categories of avoiding, accepting and embracing the LHLC business model that can be used by incumbents to defend their competitive positioning in the long-haul air travel market. This paper provides guidelines for airline managers to (re)evaluate the strategies of their own organizations facing the emergence of a potentially disruptive innovation in their industry.     

The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach

This study examines the short-term impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 52 listed airline companies around the world by using event study methodology. The results demonstrate that airline stock returns decline more significantly than the market returns after three major COVID-19 announcements were made. Overall, investors react differently during the three selected events. The strongest overreaction is noted in the post-event period of the World Health Organization's and President Trump's official announcements. Moreover, the findings confirm that traders in Western countries are more responsive to recent information than the rest of the world. The findings call for immediate policy designs in order to alleviate the impact of the pandemic in the airline industry around the globe.     

Clustered airline flight scheduling: Evidence from airline deregulation in Korea

This paper explores the impacts of competition level on airline scheduling in the Korean domestic short-haul routes where a hub-and-spoke system is not the optimal air transport network strategy. The empirical findings using the Korean airline panel data for the period 2006–2010 suggest that competition leads to less differentiated departure flight times as expected from spatial competition theory. Unlike the previous study on the U.S airline industry, the degree of this tendency for less differentiation differs across the type of routes: the Jeju island routes (leisure type) and the inland routes (business type), in the deregulated period. Following the May 2008 Deregulation Act we find an increasingly clustered pattern of airline scheduling in the Jeju island routes where there have been competitive pressures associated with new low cost entrants. This recent evidence would imply that airline carriers strategically schedule departure flight times and allocate flights between routes as competition increases in the deregulated period.     

Competitive effects of the airlines-within-airlines strategy – Pricing and route entry patterns

This paper investigates the effects of the airlines-within-airlines strategy adopted by Qantas airline group, which simultaneously runs a full-service airline (Qantas Airways) and a low-cost carrier (Jetstar Airways). Our empirical investigation of airline pricing and route entry patterns in the Australian domestic market suggests that Jetstar has been used as a fighting brand against rival low cost carriers. Such a strategy increases group airlines’ prices at the expenses of rival airlines. There is preliminary evidence that pricing benefits to Qantas Group come from increased market power as well as service quality improvements.     

Airline emissions charges and airline networks

Emissions charges are an effective tool to control aviation carbon dioxide emissions. This paper investigates how airline emissions charges affect a monopoly airline's network choice. By considering simultaneously fully-connected, hub-spoke and mixed networks, we find that the impact of emissions charges on airline network configuration depends crucially on some relevant parameters, for example, the marginal benefit of the reduction of schedule delays and the disutility of additional travel time of connecting flights. Welfare analysis shows a discontinuity in the network configuration from the social planner's perspective and an inefficiency related to the airline's choice on mixed network.     

Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US airline stock prices

This paper uses data at the trading day frequency and the method of local projections to quantify the dynamic responses of U.S. airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock. We show that airline stock prices decline immediately by 0.1 percentage point in response to a 1% COVID-19 shock. In addition, the effect of the shock persists beyond the day on which it occurs, with most airline stock prices falling by as much as 0.6 percentage points after fifteen days. This negative response of airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock is not explained by a COVID-19-induced increase in airlines’ variable costs, but rather by a COVID-19-induced decrease in air travel, which, in turn decreases revenues, profitability, and stock prices of U.S. airlines.     

A comparative performance analysis of airline strategic alliances using data envelopment analysis

As “open skies” agreements became more common among different countries and thus began to open up international routes to further competition, the global airline industry has undergone accelerated structural changes for the last two decades. These changes include the consolidation and expansion of airline strategic alliances throughout different regions of the world. Though airline strategic alliances are generally perceived to be a major driver for enhancing the operating efficiency and the subsequent competitiveness of participating member airlines, the concrete evidence supporting such a perception is still lacking in the literature. This paper is one of few attempts to evaluate the comparative efficiency of the strategic alliances among global airlines and then assess the managerial impact of airline alliances on the airline's comparative performances.     

The effect of code-sharing alliances on airline profitability

Code sharing and global alliances both have been increasingly adopted by airlines worldwide in recent years. A growing number of airlines, therefore, are embedded in networks of multilateral “coopetitive” (i.e., cooperative, but competitive) relationships that influence their product offering, pricing strategies, operating efficiency, market power, and their overall successes. There has been considerable research analyzing the benefits for airlines from joining global alliances, including bilateral code-sharing partnerships. However, the joint effect of code-sharing and global alliances on airline performance has not been fully investigated. In this paper, we study how the use of code-sharing strategies and their structural embeddedness into global alliances may impact airline performance. Using a unique dataset compiled from Flight Global and Airline Business's Annual Airline Alliance Report, the paper empirically investigates the joint benefits of code-sharing partnerships and global alliances on airline profitability. The results based on a group of 81 airlines during the 2007–2012 period show that the profit margin of an airline is positively associated with the number of code-sharing partners it has. Furthermore, the profit margin gains from code-sharing are greater when an airline has a higher proportion of its code-sharing partners in the same global alliance; i.e., allied code-sharing partners. Finally, we find no significant evidence that the percent of comprehensive code sharing partnerships to total partnerships has an impact on profit margin.     

The transformation of a legacy carrier – A case study of Turkish Airlines

This study examines the metronomic rise of Turkish Airlines into a global carrier in the period following domestic deregulation and part privatisation. Using a comparative assessment of the carrier's network and its competitive strategies during the 2003–2013/2014 period it was found that Turkish Airlines now benefits from considerable network, cost, service and brand advantages over competing European and to a lesser extent Middle-Eastern airlines. Its network operation based in Istanbul Ataturk airport enjoys strong geographic and demographic advantages, which enables it to optimise the use of its large and young short-haul fleet between a significant number of domestic and international points. This study has important implications for partially or fully state owned legacy carriers as to how to gain competitive advantages in an increasingly open and liberal airline industry.     

Market orientation and business performance: An empirical investigation in the airline industry

As the airline industry has become more competitive, carriers have looked to improve performance and competitiveness. During the last decade, market-oriented corporate strategy has emerged as a significant antecedent of organizational performance and is presumed to contribute to long-term success. This study investigates potential influences of market orientation on airline performance. Data were collected by mail survey, and MARKOR was used to specify the dimensions of a market-orientated organization. The results support the positive influence of market orientation on business performance.     

An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion

Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules.     

Occupancy,oil prices,and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S. airline industry

This paper examines whether occupancy of seats affects stock returns of airline companies and how this relationship is affected by WTI oil prices. Our approach combines revenues (occupancy) and costs (oil prices) for 33 U.S. airline companies from 1990 to 2019. Using travel capacity utilization data from U.S. carriers at monthly frequency and exploiting fixed-effects regression models, we document a positive relation between occupancy and stock returns, which is attenuated by oil prices. The role of oil becomes larger with asymmetries: the effects of oil prices are higher when moving up than down. Airline stocks always respond by more than the overall stock market.     

Cost convergence in the US airline industry: An analysis of unit costs 1995–2006

Recent changes in the strategies of US airlines have led to a convergence of unit costs between the network legacy carriers and low-cost carriers. We develop a methodology for breaking down operating cost data reported by the airlines and argue that certain cost categories must be excluded to make a valid comparison between the carrier groups. We find significant evidence of convergence in unit costs excluding fuel and transport-related expenses, and labor unit costs in particular. While network legacy carriers have improved cost efficiency through dramatic labor cost reductions and longer stage length flying, low-cost carriers labor unit costs continue to increase as these former new entrant airlines mature.     

The U.S. Airways Group: A post-merger analysis

America West Airlines acquired the bankrupt US Airways on September 27, 2005 to form the US Airways Group, improving its competitive position in the US airline industry. This paper analyzes the post-merger performance of the US Airways Group using airline operating metrics and financial ratios for the period 2005 to 2013. While the airline has still a long way to go to improve its leverage and liquidity ratios, its capital structure and ability to pay its obligations have improved since 2005. Moreover, although the airline is still inefficient in utilizing its assets, the efficiency improvements achieved since the merger have resulted in profits and positive returns to investors. Its share prices have also largely outperformed the S&P 500 and the XAL since the merger, an indication that investors are pleased with how the merger is developing over time. In view of the US Airways Group's improving financial and operating performance, the merger is, essentially, a success.