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A bstract . Anwar Sadat was generally praised by Western leaders and scholars for his vision, courage, and negotiating skills. A critical examination of the documentary record shows that at least as far as negotiations and decision-making, the dominant Western view is self-serving. The two Egyptian-Israeli disengagement agreements of 1974 and 1975 started Sadat on the road to the American-sponsored peace, the price of which Sadat must have known to be the establishment of an Egypto-American-Israeli strategic alliance at the expense of Egypt's traditional role in the Arab world. Having accepted this outcome Sadat allowed his alternatives to narrow and bargaining power to diminish until they almost exclusively and entirely rested on what the United States and Israel were prepared to offer. To the extent that the overall strategic goal of Henry Kissinger was to separate Egypt from Arab and Palestinian aspirations, and further isolate the "radical" forces in the region, thus weakening Soviet influence and paving the way for a settlement acceptable to Israel, the American negotiator achieved his goal, with hardly any opposition from Sadat. In fact, in his eagerness to accelerate his admission into the American camp, Sadat adopted a negotiating style and made concessions which surprised the Americans themselves. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2013,37(3):34-35
Despite a slight downgrade to GDP growth in Q1 and much slower growth expected in Q2 (reflecting the sequester and higher taxes) the recovery appears set to accelerate in the second half of the year. There are encouraging signs that private demand is picking up, with employment growth, consumer confidence and the housing market continuing to strengthen. This will push GDP growth to over 3% by the end of the year and to an average of 2.9% in 2014. The key factors strengthening growth in the face of tigher fiscal policy are: Improving household finances – Consumer spending is being bolstered by wealth effects from strong equity and house prices. Real wages are showing healthy growth again and, combined with rising employment, are helping to mitigate the impact of higher taxes on household disposable income. Moreover, with debt ratios at their lowest levels since 2004, it looks like deleveraging by households is ending. A stronger housing market – housing starts were up 6.8% in May to a level nearly 30% up on a year earlier. We expect residential investment to increase over 13% in 2013 and a further 9% in 2014 despite recent increases in mortgage rates. Increased home sales will also boost spending on furniture and appliances, which are often bought when people move home. Competitive manufacturing sector – US unit labor costs are the most competitive in over 30 years, and many firms are also benefiting from relatively low natural gas prices. This is supporting exports in the face of subdued world demand, although the trade deficit has deteriorated as stronger domestic demand has lifted imports. Improved competitiveness is also encouraging higher investment, which is back to pre‐recession levels… 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2019,43(2):40-41
Real GDP grew at a slower 2.2% annualized pace in Q4 2018, marking a substantial slowdown from 4.2% in Q2 and 3.4% in Q3. While consumer spending cooled to 2.5% growth, business investment picked up to 5.4% and residential investment remained depressed with a 3.5% contraction in Q4. Net trade exerted a 0.1 ppt drag on growth in Q4, offsetting the contribution from inventories. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2016,40(4):34-35
Annualized real GDP growth was revised up to 1.4% in Q2, faster than the 0.8% in Q1 but still constrained by headwinds from weak business investment and net trade and a large inventory run‐down. We believe that economic activity accelerated in Q3, with GDP growth around 2.5%, but momentum remains modest. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2018,42(1):45-46
Real GDP grew by 3.2% on an annualized basis in Q3, with final sales advancing a more modest 2.4% and inventories contributing a solid 0.8pp. Overall, the data was indicative of a 2–2.5% underlying pace of growth. We estimate Q4 growth of around 3.2% annualized, meaning the economy grew by 2.3% in 2017 as a whole. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2020,44(4):33-34
The 31.4% annualised real GDP contraction in Q2 remains the worst on record, reflecting the severity of the damage inflicted by the Global Coronavirus Recession. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2014,38(4):35-36
Real GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.6%, from a second estimate of 4.2%, as final sales advanced 3.2% and inventories contributed 1.4 percentage points to growth. Business investment stole the limelight with a 9.7% advance, while consumer outlays contributed 1.8 percentage points to growth. Newly available data for Q2 also led to an upward revision of residential investment, and a stronger net trade contribution. We expect the economy to grow by just over 3% in Q3, with the economy expanding 2.2% in 2014 as a whole and 3.1% in 2015… 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2017,41(2):37-38
Real GDP rose by 2.1% on an annualised basis in Q4 2016, with consumer spending up 3.5% and inventories contributing 1.0pp to growth. Despite solid “soft” data in Q1 2017, we see GDP growth slowing to less than 1.0% as back‐to‐back monthly declines in real consumer outlays constrain activity. Business investment and trade flows are firming only gradually, while rising inflation is taking a greater bite out of real income and spending. 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2013,37(4):34-35
GDP grew at an annualized pace of 2.5% in Q2. Consumer spending maintained a stable, but modest, pace of 1.8%, while net trade and inventory accumulation provided most of the remaining support to growth. Residential investment had another good quarter, growing 14.2%, while growth in federal government spending slipped to 1.6% on weaker nondefense spending.… 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2015,39(3):43-44
Annualised real GDP growth came in at −0.2% in Q1. Final sales fell 0.6% and inventories added 0.5 percentage point (pp) to growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending rose 2.1% and contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment fell 2.0% on a massive 18% plunge in non‐residential structures, while net foreign trade and government spending exerted 1.9 and 0.1 pp drags on growth respectively. The soft Q1 has led us to revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast from 2.7% in April to 2.3% now. We expect the US economy to grow by 2.8% in 2016.… 相似文献
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《Economic Outlook》2016,40(2):34-35
Real GDP grew by 1.4% on an annualised basis in Q4 2015, with final sales rising by 1.6% and inventories shaving 0.2ppt from growth. Consumer spending rose by 2.4%, while residential investment capped off a strong year with a 10.1% advance. The major drags on growth came from net trade and business investment. We have revised down our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% on expectations of a weaker Q1, while our view on 2017 remains at 2.4%. The picture is still one of solid domestic fundamentals being constrained by global headwinds. 相似文献
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