基于消费视角的我国城镇居民住房需求问题研究

“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。根据中央经济工作会议的精神,文章重点从 住房消费属性的层面对我国城镇居民住房需求进行了深入探讨,运用我国2007-2017年31个省（直辖市、自治区）的住房市场数据对影响居民购房的因素进行了实证,在考虑了城市化发展 带动的同时,通过对住房需求市场的收入弹性、价格弹性等进行分析,结果表明：（1）价格对 住房消费需求的调控效果有限;（2）居民对改善居住条件的欲望保持强劲势头;（3）城市化 进程对住房需求所起作用在逐步减弱。     

通货膨胀、住房所有者资本成本与住房需求——中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证分析

通过对我国35个大中城市的实证研究表明,通货膨胀将降低购房需求。这是因为前期住房所有权成本的增加和收入约束的共同作用使得通货膨胀对住房需求产生了不利影响。进一步对住房所有权成本的主要构成成分进行分析,构成住房所有权成本的资产升值和还款负担对住房需求的影响力存在差异,由治理通货膨胀引起的加息对住房需求带来负面影响要大于资产升值的积极效应,从而印证了在以个人住房贷款为购房资金主要来源的条件下,通货膨胀会降低住房的有效需求,对房地产市场产生抑制作用。     

破解住房市场难题必须供给侧与需求侧双向发力

房地产问题一直都是社会各界关注的焦点,也是迄今为止尚未化解的社会“痛点”。房地产价格的暴涨暴跌,严重影响了正常的居民居住需求和居住质量,对民生和经济都造成了破坏性影响。因此,要破解住房市场难题必须供给侧和需求侧同时发力,既要发挥财政金融政策工具的作用,抑制不合理投机（包括过度的投资）需求,也要加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,让全体人民住有所居。只有准确把握我国房地产市场的科学定位,确保房地产居住的核心功能,合理匹配政策工具,才能为解决社会“痛点”、化解潜在金融风险找到正确的路径。     

我国立体式住房金融体系的构建与住房供给保障体系的完善

在对我国住房金融体制的分析中发现,与对中高收入阶层居民的影响相比,我国的住房金融体制在为中低收入居民提供金融支持方面存在明显的缺陷.低收入居民从住房金融体系中获得的支持与其贡献不相匹配.我国的住房金融体系中存在着"劫贫济富"的现象.在深入分析其成因的基础上,提出了建设立体式住房金融体系、完善住房供给保障体系的政策思路.     

论住房市场失效与住房社会保障制度的构建

一、政府干预住房市场的理论依据在市场经济条件下,政府干预市场理论依据在于弥补市场失效。只有在市场失效的情况下,才需要政府干预;只有在政府干预比市场更有效率的条件下,政府的干预才是合理的。对住房领域,政府是否需要干预?如何干预?要回答这些问题,必     

基于需求特征分析的住房消费市场需求调控策略选择

住房制度改革深化以来,我国住房市场需求呈现快速上涨趋势。由于短期内供给缺乏弹性．因此住房价格走势与市场需求密切相关。本文分析了这一阶段我国住房消费市场的内部需求特点,指出了不同需求群体行为特点对住房市场的影响。最后针对住房消费市场需求实际,提出了当前进行需求调控的相关建议。     

中国住房市场需求特征分析

住房制度改革深化以来,我国住房市场需求呈现快速上涨趋势,由于短期内供给缺乏弹性,因此住房价格走势与市场需求密切相关。本文分析了这一阶段中国住房消费市场和资产市场的内部需求特点,指出了不同需求群体行为特点对住房市场所造成的影响,针对住房市场需求实际,提出了当前进行需求调控的相关建议。     

新发展模式过渡视角下的住房需求与供给

研判房地产市场供求关系和城镇化格局等的变化,是探索建立新发展模式的前提。理论建模和实证分析的结果显示,城镇化对住房需求的拉动下降,居民杠杆率、房价收入比对住房需求也产生下拉作用,地方土地财政、房企高杠杆的传统模式难以为继。建议在坚持“房住不炒”、租购并举的同时,推动房企转换经营理念,健全完善房企监管,提升信贷供给与行业发展的契合度。     

货币供给的内生性与我国住房金融的制度选择

在我国货币供给内生性的背景下，商业银行继续主导住房金融业务存在着明显的制度缺陷。积极发展多元化的住房金融制度，从制度上弱化贷币供给的内生性，是从金融货币角度防范房地产泡沫的理性选择。     

Housing consumption in Urban China

Abstract. In this article we examine the effect of social, political, and economic factors on consumption of housing in China. First, we present income elasticities using time-series and cross-section analyses. We then compare the results for China with income elasticities for other countries as reported in the literature. Our elasticities range between 0.317 and 1.48-quite similar to the earlier studies by Houthakker in 1957 and Chow in 1985. Our estimates are also comparable with results from other countries. Based on our analysis, we found that rent reform alone cannot successfully improve the Chinese housing situation.     

公积金约束、家庭类型与住宅特征需求——来自中国的经验分析

公积金约束正成为分化不同类型家庭住房支付能力和消费偏好的重要因素。本文利用1995年和2002年城市住户调查数据,检验公积金约束对不同类型家庭住宅特征需求的影响。实证结果表明,在住宅特征需求方面,公积金约束的影响效应存在显著的收入差异、单位类型差异、职业类型差异、职称差异和行业收入差异。其中,社会地位较高的家庭在提高住宅结构特征需求方面获得了更多的公积金支持;而在住宅邻里特征需求方面,公积金制度对社会地位较低家庭的贡献度较高。在引入工具变量、检验公积金变量的内生性偏误时发现,城镇家庭在改善型住房需求方面对社会保障体系的完善有较强的依赖性。本文的政策含义是,住房公积金制度定位应向低收入群体倾斜,并根据家庭类型实行有差别的政策。     

Residential Construction Costs and the Supply of New Housing: Endogeneity and Bias in Construction Cost Indexes

Change in the level of residential construction affects macroeconomic conditions and is an important determinant of movements in house prices. Theory teaches us that increases in the cost of construction should reduce the supply of new housing. Yet empirical research has failed to find a consistent relationship between these costs and housing starts. This article introduces an entirely new set of micro-data on housing construction costs to study this issue. We develop quality-controlled, hedonic construction cost series from these data. Using this series, we estimate housing supply and construction cost functions for new single-family residences. This research demonstrates that bias in the commercial cost indexes used in existing housing supply studies is a likely cause of their poor performance in existing estimates of the supply of new single-family housing. The bias appears to be caused by an incorrect measure of labor costs and a failure to address the endogeneity of construction costs and construction activity. In contrast, starts regressions using the hedonic cost series generate much more sensible results. We find that housing starts are quite cost elastic; construction costs are endogenous in the new housing supply function, and the cost shares of material and labor in the structure of new residences are approximately 65 and 35%, respectively.     

Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms

Developments in U.S. house prices over the past decade mirror those of the 1996–2006 boom. Construction activity has, however, been weak. Using data for 254 U.S. metropolitan areas, we show that housing supply elasticities have fallen markedly in recent years. We find that housing supply elasticities have declined more in areas in which land-use regulation has tightened the most, and in areas that experienced the sharpest housing busts. Consistent with the declining housing supply elasticities, we find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger effect on house prices during the past decade than during the previous boom. At the same time, building permits respond less.     

Social Capital and Housing Affordability: Evidence from China

This article attempts to examine the problem of housing affordability in China based on a set of household-level survey data. In contrast to the previous studies, our study focuses on the important implication of social capital for households’ house-purchasing decisions in this country. Our results show that household expenditures on the relations with parents and other relatives are important determinants for homeownership in China. We also find evidence that house-purchasing decisions are significantly affected by relatives-related variables such as number of immediate relatives in the same city, distance from parents, educational years of family head’s father, and whether parents are alive. Our research helps shed new light on the high homeownership rates in urban China.     

城市化进程中的公共物品引致供需分析

随着城市化的不断发展，对原有公共物品的需求会不断增加，同时一些新的公共物品需求也会随之产生，从而产生公共物品供给不足。一般而言，按照公共物品理论，政府是公共物品的主要供给者。但是，由于存在政府失灵与政府失败，公共物品的政府单一供给模式未必是最具效率的。因此，针对城市化进程中所产生的公共物品供给不足，应分析其基本特征，选择最优的供给模式。     

县域金融需求与供给趋势研究

本文从县域经济社会发展实际出发,通过对新时期县域金融需求不断涌现出的新特点进行分析,对县域金融需求新趋势进行研究探讨,并对相关问题进行深入思考,给出了县域金融的供给路径。     

中国再保险业发展中的供需问题研究

我国的再保险业刚刚起步 ,承保能力不足 ,技术、服务水平不高 ,对于商业分保还很陌生。尽管如此 ,目前再保险市场的大门已经打开 ,而且根据我国的承诺 ,四年后法定分保将不复存在 ,对于以法定分保为支撑的中国再保险公司和中国再保险业而言 ,如何在较短的时间内发展、壮大是一个严峻的挑战。笔者以为 ,缩小再保险供需之间的巨大缺口是当务之急 ,因此应做好相应的工作。     

The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States: Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994

The long-run price elasticity for alternative specifications of new housing supply is estimated using U.S. annual data for 1950 through 1994. The basic model expresses residential construction as a linear function of new housing price and the prices of construction inputs. Long-run elasticities range from 1.6 to 3.7, suggesting that new housing supply is price elastic. Residential construction responds to both the real interest and expected inflation rates, but other construction cost variables perform poorly. However, the results are sensitive to the time-series processes underlying the variables. A modified model that expresses residential construction as a function of changes in input prices, rather than their levels, produces a long-run elasticity of about 0.8 and a significant inverse relationship between new housing supply and the construction wage rate.     

江苏省廉租住房需求预测研究

为了进一步完善住房保障的供应体系,为今后几年廉租住房政策的实施提供具有可操作性的建议,文章以2005-2009年江苏省各年的城市居民人均居住面积、人口总数为原始资料,通过建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测出2011-2016年的廉租住房需求总量,误差检验表明,预测结果精确度较好,具有一定的参考价值。