Trade-offs of European agricultural abandonment

Agricultural land abandonment is a policy challenge, especially for areas with unfavorable conditions for agriculture and remote and mountainous areas. Agricultural abandonment is an important land use process in many world regions and one of the dominant land use change processes in Europe. Previous studies have shown that abandonment can have both positive and negative effects on several environmental processes, influenced by location and scale. Preferred policies and management of these areas are debated given concerns for the loss of (traditional) agricultural landscapes and potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We present a European-scale impact assessment of the possible effects of agricultural abandonment, based on eight indicators that are on the forefront of the agricultural abandonment debate. Using a multi-scale modelling approach, we expect between 71.277 and 211.814 km² of agricultural abandonment in 2040. Impacts on the indicators and trade-offs between the impacts are spatially variable. A typology of typical trade-off bundles at a 1 km² resolution resulted in four typical trade-off clusters. All clusters identified are characterized by a loss of agriculture-related values, such as agro-biodiversity and cultural heritage. For two clusters, this was accompanied by positive effects on indicators such as carbon sequestration, nature recreation and mammal habitat suitability. Overall, our results indicate that location and scale are key to assess the trade-offs originating from agricultural abandonment in Europe. Identification of typical trade-offs bundles can help to distinguish potential desirable outcomes of agricultural abandonment and assist in targeting measures to areas that face similar management challenges.     

Labour-saving technologies in smallholder agriculture: An economy-wide model with field operations

Labour-saving technologies are relevant for agricultural development. Yet, as this study shows, they are poorly integrated into agricultural production functions of economy-wide models. We report a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which explicitly incorporating field operations (e.g. land preparation, weeding or harvesting) in the context of smallholder agriculture. The field operations approach allows to model technological trade-offs in organic and conventional production systems at various stages of the agricultural production process. Simulating a structural change scenario, we compare the performance of the field operations approach with published benchmark production structures by assessing how they replicate empirically observed changes in land and agrochemical use. This benchmark analysis shows that incorporating field operations replicates the observed empirical changes most accurately and allows for more realistic modelling of labour-saving technologies. We use the field operations model to investigate three policy options to mitigate labour shortages in the agricultural sector of Bhutan. Permitting the employment of Indian workers in agriculture has the highest short-term potential in this respect. We find that subsidising agricultural machinery hiring services and removing import tariffs on agrochemical inputs are found to be less effective. Further options for model developments, such as combining field operations and labour market seasonality, are highlighted.     

Do land price variation and environmental regulation improve chemical industrial agglomeration? A regional analysis in China

China’s governments have a strong control over resources, such as land resources, and determine environmental policies for the nation. As an essential part of the production cost of chemical enterprises, land price and pollution costs play a critical role in location selection. However, whether the current incompletely competitive industrial land market and improving environmental regulations in China would affect chemical industrial agglomeration (CIA) is unclear. This study incorporates the land price variations, environmental regulation, and CIA into one research framework. Calculation methods of industrial land price variation (LPV), environmental regulation (ERI), and CIA are established, to reveal their development level. Furthermore, a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model is established to estimate the spatial and temporal impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA by using a panel data from 2007 to 2015. The results show significant spatial differences in the impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA between cities. The majority of the impacts of land price variation and environmental regulation on CIA are negative. However, the temporal change in the impacts are not as significant as the spatial change. Other control variables, namely, free trade, natural resources, and highway density, have a positive impact on CIA.     

Functional Land Management for managing soil functions: A case-study of the trade-off between primary productivity and carbon storage in response to the intervention of drainage systems in Ireland

Globally, there is growing demand for increased agricultural outputs. At the same time, the agricultural industry is expected to meet increasingly stringent environmental targets. Thus, there is an urgent pressure on the soil resource to deliver multiple functions simultaneously. The Functional Land Management framework (Schulte et al., 2014) is a conceptual tool designed to support policy making to manage soil functions to meet these multiple demands. This paper provides a first example of a practical application of the Functional Land Management concept relevant to policy stakeholders. In this study we examine the trade-offs, between the soil functions ‘primary productivity’ and ‘carbon cycling and storage’, in response to the intervention of land drainage systems applied to ‘imperfectly’ and ‘poorly’ draining managed grasslands in Ireland. These trade-offs are explored as a function of the nominal price of ‘Certified Emission Reductions’ or ‘carbon credits’. Also, these trade-offs are characterised spatially using ArcGIS to account for spatial variability in the supply of soil functions.To manage soil functions, it is essential to understand how individual soil functions are prioritised by those that are responsible for the supply of soil functions – generally farmers and foresters, and those who frame demand for soil functions – policy makers. Here, in relation to these two soil functions, a gap exists in relation to this prioritisation between these two stakeholder groups. Currently, the prioritisation and incentivisation of these competing soil functions is primarily a function of CO₂ price. At current CO₂ prices, the agronomic benefits outweigh the monetised environmental costs. The value of CO₂ loss would only exceed productivity gains at either higher CO₂ prices or at a reduced discount period rate. Finally, this study shows large geographic variation in the environmental cost: agronomic benefit ratio. Therein, the Functional Land Management framework can support the development of policies that are more tailored to contrasting biophysical environments and are therefore more effective than ‘blanket approaches’ allowing more specific and effective prioritisation of contrasting soil functions.     

The Governance of Rural Land in a Liberalised World

Liberalisation of agricultural policies reduces the influence of policy on land‐use decisions, but environmental policy objectives remain. Governance provides an approach that recognises the role of institutions and collective action. The formulation of environmental policy objectives in terms of the provision of public goods raises questions as to the role of economic valuation and as to whether the definition of ‘goods’ may misdirect policy attention. An alternative approach relates to ecosystem services and sees management issues in terms of ecosystem resilience and the adaptive governance of socio‐ecological systems. Governance involves a mix of regulation, markets, government incentives and collective action. Regulation sets the domain within which markets operate and social judgements as to property rights are required as a basis for exchanges. Depending on commodity prices, agri‐environment schemes may be required either to reduce agricultural production intensity or to keep land under production. The diffuse nature of the environmental benefits and costs of land uses, the complexity of ecosystems and the need to co‐ordinate land management decisions indicate a role for local adaptive co‐management of land resources. Governments play a major role in supporting the institutional framework within which this can take place.     

Interaction effects of targeted agri-environmental payments on non-marketed goods and services under climate change in a mountain region

Targeting of agri-environmental measures (AEMs) is a key to increasing the cost-effectiveness of governmental support for biodiversity conservation and the provision of ecosystem services from agriculture. Existing literature, however, often focuses on single measures without considering that policies are usually bundles of different measures addressing multiple non-marketed goods and services. Thus, interaction effects of a set of policies in a given policy mix may influence the cost-effectiveness of single measures. Recently, Swiss agricultural policy was redesigned using the Tinbergen rule as its basis, i.e., a single measure for each policy goal, including additional targeted direct payments. This facilitates testing for interaction effects of multiple targeted AEMs. Here we use a social-ecological, agent-based modelling framework to assess interaction effects of these agricultural policies while accounting for climate change impacts in our analysis. The results from our case study in a mountain region show that ecosystem service provision increases with targeted payments. However, interaction effects of the different targeted policies affect the provision levels of all goods and services. In particular, changes at the extensive margin, i.e., the total amount of land that is under production, largely determine the amount of ecosystem services provided. Thus, climate change driven productivity increases and policies that keep land in production may substantially support the provision of non-marketed goods and services in marginal agricultural production regions with a high potential for land abandonment. Consequently, the effectiveness of targeted policy measures should also consider changes at the extensive margin and be assessed in the context of bundles or portfolios of different policy measures.     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

Agricultural Comparative Advantage and Government Policy Interventions

International trade patterns are often explained by comparative advantage which is frequently thought to depend on variations in national factor endowments. Government intervention in agricultural markets may also have an impact on trade patterns. This study explores the relation between factor endowments and agricultural trade patterns and examines the impact of agricultural and environmental policies on trade flows. Measures of national endowments of capital, labour, land and energy reserves are computed for a sample of 40 countries and used to estimate Heckscher‐Ohlin‐Vanek equations with net trade in several agricultural commodities as the dependant variable. Variables measuring agricultural policy and environmental regulations are added to the equations and tested for significance. The variables representing government intervention do not contribute to the explanation of trade patterns while national factor endowments do account for much of the variation in trade patterns of grains, oilseeds, cotton, and, to a lesser extent, meat products and an aggregate of all agricultural goods. Commodities such as sugar, tropical products and fruits and vegetables do not appear to be well explained by factor endowments.     

Designating tree crops as forest: Land competition and livelihood effects mediate tree crops impact on natural forest cover in south China

The Chinese government applies the term ‘tree crops’ (jingjilin) to a bundle of tree species with uses other than timber production, defining this category as a component of national forest statistics. Tree crops may displace either farmland or forestland, and can be a promising livelihood option for smallholders. The overall impact of this particular policy on natural forest growth remained unanswered. In the general expansion trend of tree cover in southern China, tree crops could compete for land with natural forests, their cultivation may pose environmental trade-offs with natural forest cover. However, in a context of large labor flows from countryside to cities, tree crops could provide promising opportunities for dealing with on-farm labor shortages and generating income for disadvantaged populations remaining in rural communities, then promoting remaining natural forest quality through alternative livelihoods process. There is a knowledge gap to thoroughly investigate tree crops’ impact on natural forest change both conceptually and empirically, especially a mechanism verification of the alternative livelihood hypothesis. Thus, we construct a framework assessing land use competition and alternative livelihood effects together to assess overall impacts of tree crop cultivation on natural forests. Our dataset combines forest resource inventory data and provincial social-economic factors for a panel analysis of contributions to change in natural forest cover, density, and stock in China’s biodiversity-rich southern provinces. Results show tree crop cover is negatively associated with natural forest extent, but positive associated with change in natural forest density, while the relationship with change in natural forest stock is insignificant. Further tests of mechanisms support the hypothesis that tree crops benefit disadvantaged rural populations, providing an alternative livelihood. Defining tree crops as forest in China obscures important patterns, particularly a trade-off between tree crops and natural forest cover and a possible synergy with natural forest density mediated by alternative livelihood processes. Policy makers should enact specific policies to incentivize natural forest recovery in the southern collective forest zone and reconsider the appropriateness of defining tree crops as forest. Concentration and intensification of tree crop production on suitable lands may have the potential to benefit both forests and impoverished populations.     

面向国土空间规划的农业生产适宜性评价——以辽中平原为例

[目的]依据农业生产的自然本底条件与国土利用现状,开展农业生产适宜性评价与承载规模测算研究,可为科学支撑国土空间规划编制提供理论参考。[方法]文章依据资源环境承载能力与国土空间适宜性的基本评价导向,以辽中平原为例,通过分析农业生产的水、土、光热、环境质量、气象灾害、国土利用、生态保护等条件与风险,细化了农业生产适宜性与承载规模评价方法,并基于GIS空间分析开展了相应评价。[结果]辽中平原农业生产适宜区、一般适宜区、不适宜区面积占比分别为48.1%、23.9%和28.0%。不适宜区主要受现状国土利用、坡度、土壤肥力、环境质量制约。不适宜区内分布有耕地、园地13.9万hm2,主要在平原北部的沈阳、铁岭、阜新等地。辽中平原农业生产承载规模约320.6万hm2,高出现状耕地规模约16%,整体上农业生产承载能力尚有盈余,但受水资源约束,盘锦、营口平原区域的农业生产规模超载。[结论]为支撑区域国土空间规划、保障粮食生产安全,需加强辽中平原农业生产不适宜区内的耕地监管,开展周边土地及环境综合整治,必要时制定耕地调入调出方案,优化农业生产超载地区的水量调配方案及用水结构,大力推行农业节水灌溉。     

Agriculture and land use: Demand for and supply of agricultural commodities,characteristics of the farming and food industries,and implications for land use in the UK

Agriculture is the largest type of land use in the UK, accounting for about 77 per cent of the total area, compared with an average 50 per cent for the EU27. But in common with most high-income countries, agriculture's contribution to UK GDP and employment is low, at about 0.5 and 1.8 per cent, respectively, although the regional importance of the sector (and its associated food and farming industries) varies considerably.Of the 17.5 million ha used for agriculture, about 28 per cent is allocated to crops, and 67 per cent is grassland. The grassland includes 4.4 million ha of sole-owned rough grazing and 1.1 million ha of common land in mainly upland “disadvantaged areas,” primarily used for beef and sheep production. This has a major influence on land use, especially in the northern and western parts of the UK.From the 1930s until the mid-1980s, UK policy promoted increases in agricultural productivity to feed the nation from its own resources. An array of income and production support measures encouraged intensive farming, including a relative switch to arable farming in eastern areas. Since the early-1990s, policies have sought simultaneously to make UK agriculture internationally competitive and environmentally benign. These policies, evident in the Agenda 2000 Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy, point the way forward for the future. It is likely that a greater distinction will emerge between policies to protect natural resources and enhance the flow of non-market ecosystem services from rural land, and agriculture and food policies intended to encourage an appropriate proportion of national food requirements to be met from domestic sources.It seems likely that over the next 50 years, the UK's land area will be required to deliver an increasingly diverse range of private and public goods to meet growing human needs and aspirations. This will require a balance of policy-driven goals and market forces. It will also need a much improved understanding of the trade-offs between food production and environmental goals and of the institutional arrangements required to achieve a balance of economic, social and environmental outcomes.     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Agricultural land protection in China: a case study of local governance in Zhejiang Province

China's rapid economic development following the 1978 reforms has resulted in significant economic, social and environmental change. One consequence of this change has been the accentuation of an existing trend of agricultural land loss and degradation. Although the 1978 reforms and their impacts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny, relatively little research has been directed towards the relationship between the evolution of local government structures and practices and the implementation of agricultural land protection policies. This paper presents an analysis of this relationship in Huzhou Municipality, Zhejiang Province. Zhejiang Province is situated on the eastern seaboard and exhibited the highest average annual per capita growth in China between 1978 and 1995. Huzhou Municipality is a growth centre in the northern part of the province. A synthesis of the factual knowledge and perceptions of 40 key-informants suggests that despite the development of a comprehensive legal framework for agricultural land protection, the interpretation of policy at local levels continues to permit the loss of agricultural land (and attendant environmental costs) to be traded-off against increased economic growth. This suggests a need to re-evaluate the role of local levels of government in China with respect to agricultural land protection issues; to look as much at the ways policies are implemented as at policies themselves. The devolution of administrative responsibility in China and the increasing influence of powerful local economic interests will provide an impetus for such a re-focussing of research at local levels.     

Solving Brazil's land use puzzle: Increasing production and slowing Amazon deforestation

Brazil has become an agricultural powerhouse, producing roughly 30 % of the world’s soy and 15 % of its beef by 2013 – yet historically much of that growth has come at the expense of its native ecosystems. Since 1985, pastures and croplands have replaced nearly 65 Mha of forests and savannas in the legal Amazon. A growing body of work suggests that this paradigm of horizontal expansion of agriculture over ecosystems is outdated and brings negative social and environmental outcomes. Here we propose four strategies that can reduce deforestation, while increasing production and social wellbeing. First, eliminate land grabbing and land speculation through designation of public forests. This would clarify land tenure and limit the pool of land available for uncontrolled expansion of agriculture and ranching. Second, reduce deforestation on private properties by implementing existing mechanisms in Brazil’s Forest Code to facilitate payments for environmental services, with support from market initiatives for sustainable sourcing of agricultural products. Third, incentivize increased productivity on medium and large properties through targeted investments. By stimulating adoption of proven technologies for sustainable intensification, this would help meet Brazil’s production targets and growing international demand for agricultural products, without expanding into new production areas. Finally, foster economic, environmental and social improvements through technical assistance to small farmers. Small farmers occupy a large swath of the Amazon and often lack access to technical assistance, production technology, and markets. Providing quality technical assistance to small farmers could help them better align production practices with local opportunities; increase household income and improve livelihoods; and reduce deforestation pressure. By implementing these four strategies in a coordinated effort between public and private agents, Brazil can show the world how to reduce deforestation while increasing agricultural output, reestablishing its leadership in managing natural resources and mitigating climate change.     

加快推进新疆巴州农业产业结构优化升级的思考和建议

新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州历史悠久,素有"华夏第一州"美誉,地处新疆东南部,"丝绸之路经济带"核心区,区位优势明显,发展现代农业的经济、社会和自然等基础条件相对优越,是新疆重要的棉花、粮食等农产品生产基地。近年来巴州经济社会保持了良好的发展势头,特别是农业领域,全州棉花、粮食、特色农产品、设施农业等产业发展迅速,农业产业结构呈现出多样化发展的态势,农业农村发展持续向好,农民收入水平稳步提高。但受自然生态脆弱、国内外市场波动、成本不断提高、自身结构不合理等因素影响,现代农业发展仍存在诸多不确定因素,严重制约了农业产业优化升级。文章梳理总结巴州发展现代农业的一系列优势,系统分析当前农业产业结构及主要特征,粮食、棉花、油塘、特色经济作物等主要产业的发展趋势和现状,指出制约现代农业发展和结构调整的因素,从管理、生态保护、促进产业发展、加工产业升级、创新产业化经营模式等角度提出加快农业产业结构优化升级的总体思路和合理化建议,从而加快推进巴州现代农业发展。     

Changing land use intensity in Europe – Recent processes in selected case studies

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural production between 2001 and 2011. In the case studies in Western and Eastern Europe we observed stabilisation during the last decade, and no clear tendency of increase or decrease of land use intensity. The use of fertilizers and pesticides seems to have decreased in our cases in Western Europe, which is contrary to trends in Eastern Europe. Agricultural production remained stable in almost all cases, except for an increase in Austria and Romania which may indicate that the farming efficiency has increased. A statistical analysis showed a division between study areas in Romania and Austria (increasing land use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place. Logistic regression highlighted the importance of farm size and farmer type in understanding changes in land use intensity. The dominant pattern of stabilisation which has occurred over the past 10 years may also partly be a result of effective EU and national environmental and agricultural policies, which are increasingly concerned with improving environmental conditions in rural areas.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure,Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results

The decoupling of direct payments from production represents a substantial reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to be entitled to support but only to keep land in Good Environmental and Agricultural Condition. If output declines as a result, there is concern that landscape services produced jointly with commodities will also decline. The aim of this paper is to assess the long‐term effects of the 2003 reform on farm structure, landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a sample of EU regions. Impacts are quantified using a spatial agent‐based modelling approach by simulating agricultural development with links to indicators of landscape value. Our results demonstrate that eliminating the link between support payments and production has possible negative consequences for the landscape, but only under particular circumstances. It is shown that these effects could be offset by strengthening (Pillar II) agri‐environmental schemes. Further the single payment scheme results in higher land rental prices which reduces its ability to achieve its goal of providing income security for farmers. Implications of these results for the direction of continued CAP reform are discussed.     

Reconciling rural development and ecological restoration: Strategies and policy recommendations for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Increased demand for both agricultural production and forest restoration may lead to increased competition for land in the next decades. Sustainably increasing cattle ranching productivity is a potential solution to reconcile different land uses, while also improving biodiversity conservation and the provision of ecosystem services. If not strategically implemented in integration with complementary policies, sustainable intensification can however result in negative environmental, economic and social effects. We analyzed the potential for sustainable intensification as a solution for a conflict between agricultural expansion and forest restoration in the Paraitinga Watershed at the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. In addition, we provide policy recommendations for sustainable development in the region, based on interviews with producers and local actors. We found that the Paraitinga Watershed has the potential to increase its cattle-ranching productivity and, as a result, relinquish spared land for other uses. This was true even in the most conservative intensification scenario considered (50% of the maximum potential productivity reached), in which 76,702 ha of pastures can be spared for other uses (46% of total pasture area). We found that restoration, apiculture and rural tourism are promising activities to promote sustainable development in the region, thus potentially increasing food production and mitigating competition for land. Our study shows that results from socioeconomic interviews and biophysical modelling of potential productivity increases offer robust insights into practical solutions on how to pursue sustainable development in one of the world’s most threatened biodiversity hotspots.