Indeterminacy with small externalities: The role of non-separable preferences

In this paper we consider a Ramsey one-sector model with non-separable homothetic preferences, endogenous labor and productive external effects arising from average levels of capital and labor. We show that indeterminacy cannot arise when there are only capital externalities but that it does occur when there are only labor external effects. We prove that sunspot fluctuations are fully consistent with small market imperfections and realistic calibrations for the elasticity of capital–labor substitution (including the Cobb-Douglas specification) provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of labor supply are large enough.     

Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy

This paper introduces efficiency wages designed to provide workers with incentives to make appropriate effort levels, and involuntary unemployment, along the pioneering lines of Negishi (1979) , Solow (1979) and Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) , in a dynamic model involving heterogeneous agents and financial constraints as in Woodford (1986) and Grandmont et al. (1998) . Effort varies continuously while there is unemployment insurance funded out of taxation of labor incomes. Increasing unemployment insurance is beneficial to employment along the deterministic stationary state, and can even in some cases lead to a Pareto welfare improvement for all agents, through general equilibrium effects, by generating higher individual real labour incomes, hence larger consumptions of employed and unemployed workers, and thus higher production. In contrast, the local (in)determinacy properties of the stationary state are opposite to those obtained in the competitive specification of the model: local determinacy (indeterminacy) occurs for elasticities of capital-efficient labor substitution lower (larger) than a quite small bound. Increasing unemployment insurance is more likely to lead to local indeterminacy and, therefore, to generate dynamic inefficiencies due to the corresponding expectations coordination failures.     

On the stabilizing virtues of imperfect competition

We analyze the stabilizing role of imperfect competition on fluctuations as a result of indeterminacy and endogenous cycles. In this paper, imperfect competition is a source of monopoly profits, because of producer market power. Considering an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and elastic labor supply, we show that under imperfect competition, the emergence of endogenous fluctuations requires a weaker substitution between production factors than under perfect competition. In this sense, imperfect competition stabilizes fluctuations. However, we find an opposite conclusion concerning the elasticity of labor supply. Indeed, endogenous fluctuations are compatible with a less elastic labor supply under imperfect competition.     

Homoclinic bifurcation and global indeterminacy of equilibrium in a two-sector endogenous growth model

This paper considers an endogenous growth model that belongs to the same family as the Lucas model. In the Lucas model an external effect appears in the physical-goods sector, whereas in our model, it appears in the educational sector. In our model, this external effect yields multiple balanced growth paths. Our model undergoes a homoclinic bifurcation and exhibits global indeterminacy of equilibrium.     

我国城乡居民储蓄的增长效应研究：基于OLG模型

文章在OLG模型框架下研究储蓄与经济增长的均衡关系,结果表明,储蓄对经济增长的影响存在跨期效应,上一期的储蓄对当期的经济增长产生正向影响。在实证层面,采用省级面板数据发现,1979—2011年我国的居民储蓄能显著解释中国经济增长原因,并且呈现出东部、中部、西部基本一致的特征。文章研究表明,过去30多年我国城乡居民的节俭行为实际上为中国经济增长发挥了重要作用。     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off

By using a multi-country simulation model this paper analyzes the qualitative effects of joining a monetary union. The transition to EMU (European Monetary Union) is shown to produce interest and exchange rate changes with substantial and countervailing effects on the real economy which can be traced through the model. Observable anticipation effects in the wake of the EMU are substantiated; and some policy recommendations for joining any monetary union are derived. It is also shown that fixing conversion rates at last-day market rates produces a unique outcome and not exchange rate indeterminacy as argued by De Grauwe (1997), Obstfeld (1998), and others.     

地方政府投资效率的阶段性和地域性特征——基于中国省市面板数据的分析

当前,地方政府投资对经济增长发挥着重要影响,因而地方政府投资效率的高低显得十分关键。结合中国省市1998-2008年间的面板数据,基于Pooled OLS、一阶差分模型、固定效应模型以及GMM方法,本文尝试深入分析地方政府投资效率的阶段性和地域性特征。在计量模型构建方面,本文创新的综合考虑到TFP分解问题,控制了基尼系数、教育财政支出比重和劳动份额等结构性变量。实证结果表明,自2001年入世以来,地方政府投资效率有所降低,幅度为7%;而东部地区省份的投资效率相对于西部地区省份要高10%,这一结论具有较强的现实意义。     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒\"U\"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

Explaining liberalization commitments in financial services trade

The paper examines the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, it empirically investigates the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries. JEL no. D78, F13, G20     

Countries' creditworthiness: An indicator from a probit analysis

Summary This article discusses the results of an emperical analysis of developing countries' creditworthiness using data for 32 countries over the sample period 1983–1993, and presents a country risk indicator on the basis of a probit model. In this model the occurrence of payment arrears is related to a set of explanatory variables, which include policy-related and global determinants, next to general macroeconomic and financial variables. The new indicator has a rank correlation of about 0.8 with often used measures provided by rating agencies. Nevertheless, several remarkable differences are present. For Mexico, for instance, our indicator points towards declining creditworthiness since 1989, whereas other ratings show Mexico's creditworthiness to be increasing steadily.Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.