The science of ‘what-if?’

An appropriate response to the new challenges to science will require more than new explicit goals and social organisation. New leading questions will be appropriate. The traditional questions of ‘what/how?’ for research and ‘how/why?’ for the design fields, will be supplemented by ‘what-if?’. This previously had its place in exploratory phases of all research; now it will become an essential component of ‘post-normal’ science. Its form precludes the dogmatic and exclusive styles which have hitherto been dominant in science as applied to policy problems; and it lends itself to open enquiry and public participation.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

‘Climategate’ and the maturing of post-normal science

In response to the Climategate scandal, I wrote a number of essays, including a posting on an important critical blog. There I explained the affair in terms of post-normal science. First, that the scientists concerned were doing ‘normal science’, not coping with uncertainties, and then that the ‘extended peer community’ had come into power on the critical blogosphere. There was already a current of criticism of PNS, seeing it as contributing to the supposed corruption of climate science through its denial of Truth. One important essay in that tendency is reproduced here. In my reply to my critics, I argued that we are on the same side, committed to the integrity of science; and I reviewed the progression of my own ideas on climate change. In the light of the criticisms, I conclude with some searching questions about post-normal science.     

Futurists and their schools: A response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

A ‘futurist’ is the generic term for someone seriously engaged in the consideration of future conditions. ‘Futures research’ has a systems science orientation with a planning horizon in excess of 10 years. ‘Futures studies’ has a social science connotation and ‘foresight’ is the most popular term within the management science and corporate sectors. Five schools of futures researchers are defined: 1. Environmental and geosciences. 2. Infrastructure systems and engineering technology. 3. Social, political and economic science. 4. Human life, mind and information science. 5. Business and management science. The academic route to a futures qualification is outlined with a list of futures orientated organisations. The inclusion of urbanisation in the next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, would involve replacing the notion of economic equilibrium by the concept of far-from-equilibrium stability. Finally futures research is described as an evolutionary science, which will possibly become integrated within complexity science by 2050.     

基层央行科技工作集中化和标准化探讨

县支行是我国中央银行最为基层的一级单位,也是各类信息系统的终端节点和神经末梢,科技管理工作与基层央行业务的顺利开展密切相关。本文分析了目前县支行科技管理工作中出现的新情况、新问题．提出了一种的新的工作模式——科技管理的集中化和标准化,解决目前县支行科技管理工作中的困境,以达到科技服务业务、科技引领创新的要求。     

The secularization of science and a new deal for science policy

The secularization of science, by analogy with the separation of Church and state, would divest all science funding from the state, except where it bears directly on matters of public policy. I argue for an intensification of this tendency, which is already occurring across the Euro-American world. I then explore the policy implications in some detail, including historical precedents in New Deal attitudes toward the role of science in public policy. I begin by reviewing the secularization of Christendom, which turns out to be intimately tied with the social ascendency of the natural sciences. I then explore more recent conditions that contribute to the secularization of science itself, during which I claim that the Cold War's scaling up of state support for scientific research should be regarded as a historical aberration that we are currently getting over. However, I still reserve a very strong role for the state in the public distribution of already existing knowledge, the primary vehicle for which will remain the university.     

“Too‐Small‐To‐Survive” versus “Too‐Big‐To‐Fail” banks: The two sides of the same coin

In the recent crisis, the U.S. authorities bailed out numerous banks through TARP, whilst let many others to fail as going concern entities. Even though both interventions fully protect depositors, a bail out represents an implied subsidy to shareholders, which is not yet the case with closures where creditors are not subsidised. We investigate this non‐uniform policy, demonstrating that size and not performance is the decision variable that endogenously determines one threshold below which banks are treated as TSTS by regulators and another one above which are considered to be TBTF. We, hence, provide a pair of economic rather than regulatory cut‐offs for TBTF and TSTS banks. The shareholders and the other uninsured creditors of a distressed bank are not bailed out if the bank is considered to be TSTS. We further document that the less complex a bank is, the less likely is to be bailed out and, hence, to have all of its creditors protected.     

Orchestrating a creative learning environment: Design and scenario work as a coaching experience - How educational science and psychology can help design and scenario work & vice-versa

This article considers design and scenario work as a team-coaching experience. It presents the componential theory of learning in coaching and the underlying componential model of creative learning, highlighting some ideas and showing some possibilities of using them for creating and implementing a creative learning environment necessary for the success of both design and scenario work. The benefits of other methods and tools of educational science and psychology are also briefly described. Finally, possibilities arising from the new as well as the usual perspectives on design and scenario work for educational science and psychology – more precisely, coaching and creativity research – are dealt with. In the last section of the article, general principles used are highlighted and summarized. Some connections to fundamental questions of the role of sciences, arts, theory and practice as well as of the location of design and scenario work are discussed. Thereby, a possible solution to the related controversy is initially proposed. Overall, this article shows some of the areas in which educational science and psychology, on the one side, and design and scenario work, on the other, can be of mutual benefit. It aims to initiate further discussions about connections among the mentioned fields, and seeks to suggest some possibilities for interdisciplinary research and utilization of its results.     

Government spending on research and development in the UK

This paper explores the extent of current UK government spending on science and technology placed in its recent historical context. The allocation of this spending across the different arms of government, the primary purposes of the expenditures undertaken and the extent to which the government performs as well as funds R&D are also explored, with some international comparisons analysed. The political and institutional processes that determine the revealed patterns of expenditure in the UK, the rationales behind such spending and the aims and objectives of the main spending departments are discussed, as is the interaction with EU expenditures on science and technology. The effectiveness of or pay-off to government support of this kind is also considered before future spending plans are addressed.     

The end of neoliberal history—the future of economics

The future of economics needs discussion both negatively, as the denial of neoliberal perspective, and positively as a science that is able to handle the historic welfare-freedom-culture paradox. The authors state that this alternative is political economy, which they define as a science searching for materialisation of social visions in the economic sphere. This tradition dates back to ancient cultures and does not coincide with the present usage of political economy. The article discusses the political economy of the information age and beyond. The core idea is that the human alternative of ongoing technological changes executes long run visions of mankind: co-existence of freedom and welfare under cultural leadership in a global scale.     

加强技术创新促进经济增长

21世纪,科学技术日新月异,以信息技术、生物技术为代表的高新技术及其产业迅猛发展。在以经济实力、国防实力和民族凝聚力为主要内容的综合国力竞争中,能否在高新技术及其产业化领域占据一席之地已成为竞争的焦点,成为维护国家主权和经济安全的命脉所在。实践证明,科技进步、高新技术及其产业已成为经济增长最重要的源泉,技术创新对社会发展和进步具有决定性的作用。     

Authors’ Reply: Two Paradigms for the Market Value of Liabilities - Discussion by David F. Babbel; Michael Cohen; J. Peter Duran; Luke N. Girard; Thomas S.Y. Ho; Craig Merrill

Abstract

In this article, we express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortality will likely prove to be inadequate in the future. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method, which overall has been empirically successful, uses auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) technology and contains no structural mortality equation. This structure means that no information other than previous history can be introduced. We argue that rapid advances in medical science are taking place and that failure to reflect this information in our projection methodology will make resulting projections unsuitable.     

The conscious purpose of science is control of nature; its unconscious effect is disruption and chaos

The enormous advances in science promise infinite potential in a world that, paradoxically, has become distinctly finite. The benefits of science are offset by adverse unintended effects. They are perpetuated by the structure of technological development and the underlying assumptions within the world view that brought forth those benefits. Causal layered analysis is a futures research tool that enables the creation of transformative spaces in which we can envisage alternative and preferred futures. It focuses on the deeper dimensions, questioning our assumptions and exposing the contradictions and our prejudices. It is applied here to the introduction of genetic engineering in agriculture in New Zealand as a means to illustrate a role for science whereby the “disruption and chaos” may be minimised if not eliminated.     

Management accounting as normal social science

The publication of “Management accounting change: Approaches and perspectives” (Wickramasinghe, D., & Alawattage, C. (2007). Management accounting change: Approaches and perspectives. London, New York: Routledge) provides an occasion for considering the extent to which management accounting has become a normal social science. This review essay argues that management accounting is a social science defined by a pluralism of approaches, and it identifies the generalization of social perspectives on management accounting, and particularly their ability to transcend technical and economic aspects of accounting practice, as crucial components in reproducing this specific form of expertise. Contrary to Kuhnian expectations, this social science hosts a multiplicity of paradigms, and its scientists are not exclusively concerned with the subtlest and most esoteric aspects of the phenomena under study. Instead, as social scientists management accountants are generalists as much as they are specialists.     

What is science’s crisis really about?

Present day reasoning about difficulties in science reproducibility, science governance, and the use of science for policy could benefit from a philosophical and historical perspective. This would show that the present crisis was anticipated by some scholars of these disciplines, and that diagnoses were offered which are not yet mainstream among crisis-aware disciplines, from statistics to medicine, from bibliometrics to biology. Diagnoses in turn open the path to possible solutions. This discussion is urgent given the impact of the crises on public trust in institutions. We ask whether the present crisis may be seminal in terms of drawing attention to alternative visions for the role of Science in society, and its relevant institutional arrangements. We finish by offering a number of suggestions in this direction.     

How Post Normal views of science have contributed to a model of communication about biotechnology

The political debate on genetic engineering in New Zealand during 2001-02 provided a focus for the development of a model for communication about biotechnology. Ravetz's challenge to develop a pedagogy to explore a Post Normal view of science was taken up by this author when she developed strategies for biology teachers to examine biotechnological processes and products from a Post Normal science viewpoint. This view of system uncertainties strongly influenced the inclusion of risk as an element that affected a person's ‘view’ of biotechnology within this communication model. Further development of this problem-solving spectrum of Post Normal science is possible if biotechnology is analysed from a technological epistemological perspective where a biotechnological outcome can be judged according to its fitness for purpose. If this occurs there are opportunities for biotechnology to be characterised as an example of Post Normal science from a scientific as well as an technological epistemology. Such analysis could provide opportunity for such an integrative perspective to be proposed and characterised.     

Skewed distributions in finance and actuarial science: a review

That the returns on financial assets and insurance claims are not well described by the multivariate normal distribution is generally acknowledged in the literature. This paper presents a review of the use of the skew-normal distribution and its extensions in finance and actuarial science, highlighting known results as well as potential directions for future research. When skewness and kurtosis are present in asset returns, the skew-normal and skew-Student distributions are natural candidates in both theoretical and empirical work. Their parameterization is parsimonious and they are mathematically tractable. In finance, the distributions are interpretable in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Furthermore, they lead to theoretical results that are useful for portfolio selection and asset pricing. In actuarial science, the presence of skewness and kurtosis in insurance claims data is the main motivation for using the skew-normal distribution and its extensions. The skew-normal has been used in studies on risk measurement and capital allocation, which are two important research fields in actuarial science. Empirical studies consider the skew-normal distribution because of its flexibility, interpretability, and tractability. This paper comprises four main sections: an overview of skew-normal distributions; a review of skewness in finance, including asset pricing, portfolio selection, time series modeling, and a review of its applications in insurance, in which the use of alternative distribution functions is widespread. The final section summarizes some of the challenges associated with the use of skew-elliptical distributions and points out some directions for future research.     

现代IR四略

在科技爆发的今天,企业已经毫无"隐私"可言。对于完全"赤裸裸"的呈现在投资者面前的中国企业,如何有效提升企业的形象,建设并加强传播力度成为一门必备且"没有捷径"的学问。虽然马云一再强调的"客户是父母,投资者是娘舅"的观点一直让投资者感觉颇为不舒服,但是这却没有影响到他们对阿里巴巴的热衷。而马云也没有放过任何一个宣传的机会,除了与克林顿对话西湖、接受美国ABC电台专访、作客斯坦福大学进行演讲之外,马云竭力将阿里巴巴推向了各个层面和角     

Fusion of science and culture key to the 21st century

This essay takes as its premise that long-term human survival requires development of a new alliance between science and culture to the point of fusion. Geopolitical rupture with the past and cultural diversity will shape the norms and values underlying future development of science and technology, with a shift occuring from previous science and technology development models. Science will thus require new models of cultural communication, based on reciprocal relations among all humanity without the hegemony of western values, in order that humanity can live peacefully with itself and the environment.