人民币实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品贸易影响的实证分析

汇率被认为是影响对外贸易重要的宏观变量。本文采用协整分析方法探讨人民币汇率改革以来的实际有效汇率变动对江西省机电产品进出口的影响。实证分析结果表明,汇率与机电产品进出口贸易额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但对进口的影响作用更大;马歇尔．勒纳条件成立,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电产品进出口贸易的影响存在J曲线效应。     

人民币汇率调整与内外失衡的影响机理分析

本文运用协整分析建立误差修正模型,重点分析了我国经济内外均衡与人民币汇率调整机制之间的关系。研究表明:我国经济内外部均衡变量与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在着协整关系,短期内,对人民币实际有效汇率产生影响的主要是贸易顺差、货币供给量和经济增长因素。长期来看,决定长期汇率均衡走势的是实体因素(外汇储备、经济增长和货币供应量)。价格因素(通货膨胀率和利率)在短期内可能对汇率影响较大,但长期内不再重要。     

人民币对港币实际有效汇率与外汇储备及交易量的协整分析

本文采用协整分析方法从目前以市场为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度出发而选择相应变量；外汇市场港币交易量、国家外汇储备。研究它们与人民币对港币实际有效汇率之间的协整关系，建立了描述实际有效汇率由短期波动向长期均衡的线性误差校正模型。实证分析表明该模型取得了很好的模拟效果，显示出从制度和供需理论出发来描述汇率行为的重要性。     

人民币实际有效汇率与我国贸易收支之间的互动关系——基于格兰杰因果关系的实证分析

本文选取1994‐2011年我国贸易收支月度数据以及美元兑人民币的实际有效汇率指数,首先对样本数据做平稳性检验以及协整分析,然后通过利用格兰杰因果关系来探究当前我国的人民币实际有效汇率与贸易收支之间是否存在确定的关系。研究结果表明人民币实际有效汇率不是影响我国贸易收支顺差的决定性因素,而贸易收支顺差却是导致人民币有实际效汇率升值的因素。     

人民币升值压力下对出口退税调整的几点思考

本文运用恩格尔-格兰杰两步法,对1985～2009年的人民币实际有效汇率和出口退税对我国出口贸易之间的长期关系进行协整检验。实证结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对出口的拉动作用要大于出口退税政策对出口的拉动作用。为了缓和人民币汇率变化引起的不利冲击,使用人民币汇率政策调控出口贸易时,应配合使用出口退税政策,使人民币升值对我国对外贸易带来的影响变得更为可控。     

人民币均衡汇率实证分析

本文采用行为均衡汇率模型,通过对1994～2010年间的若干影响实际汇率的基本经济变量的年度数据进行实证分析得出如下结论:一是人民币实际有效汇率与所选择的解释变量存在着协整关系,其中贸易条件对实际汇率的影响最大,政府支出占GDP比值对人民币汇率有正面影响,而开放度与其负相关;二是观测期间人民币长期均衡汇率呈总体上升,其低估与高估的现象交替出现,总体上不存在严重的汇率失调。     

人民币均衡实际汇率研究

在Edwards提出的ERER模型的基础上，本文建立了一个人民币均衡汇率模型。实证研究对模型提供了强有力的支持，人民币实际有效汇率与贸易条件、开放度、政府支出、全要素生产率之间存在协整关系。通过建立误差修正模型发现．人民币汇率错位修正机制存在，自我修正功能较强，且有提高趋势；财政与货币政策变动对人民币实际有效汇率的短期影响不显著，人民币名义有效汇率变动对人民币实际有效汇率的短期影响显著，且有提高趋势，而人民币兑美元名义汇率变动对人民币实际有效汇率的短期影响不显著。     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

人民币升值对房地产行业影响的实证研究

基于证券市场数据,通过相关分析、协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,研究了汇率制度改革后房地产指数与人民币汇率之间的关系。实证结果表明,人民币汇率与房地产指数存在着长期稳定的协整关系,汇率波动是房地产指数的长期以及短期Granger原因,人民币升值是房地产板块跑赢大盘的重要原因。     

人民币升值对地产行业影响的实证研究

基于证券市场数据,通过相关分析、协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,研究了汇率制度改革后房地产指数与人民币汇率之间的关系。实证结果表明,人民币汇率与房地产指数存在着长期稳定的协整关系,汇率波动是房地产指数的长期以及短期Granger原因,人民币升值是房地产板块跑赢大盘的重要原因。     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

The Creation of the Office for National Statistics

A new Office for National Statistics was created in the United Kingdom in 1996 following a series of developments designed to strengthen the relevance and integrity of statistics. This paper describes these fundamental changes and sets out a blueprint for future progress. It also sets current developments in the United Kingdom in an historical and international context.     

What helps? Women engineers' accounts of staying on

We have considerable understanding of the obstacles that women engineers encounter and the reasons that they leave the field, but we know less about what enables them to remain. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this article examines how a group of British women engineers in two FTSE 100 companies account for “staying on” in their male‐dominated work settings. We delineate four specific forms of help that facilitate women's retention in the field. We argue that exposure to help leads to women developing a habitus that enables them to continue working in engineering. To conclude, we draw on our findings to outline HR practices that will facilitate supportive relationships in the workplace and pave the way towards developing more positive organisational climates.     

论现代物流企业的发展观

物流业经过诸多年的发展目前已经成为最热门的行业之一,物流企业的注册数量也与日俱增,达到前所未有的规模。毋庸置疑,任何企业都希望自己迅速做强做大,并成为真正现代物流企业的典型代表,要实现这一目标一个首要问题就是要解决现代物流企业的发展观问题。     

浅谈大体积混凝土裂缝的控制

大体积混凝土的裂缝问题是实际工程中长期困扰工程技术人员的问题,其控制技术的研究是混凝土结构研究的热点问题,具有重大的学术价值和潜伏的工程背景。     

Supply Chain Strategies in the UK Fashion Industry—The Rhetoric of Partnership and Realities of Power

This paper focuses on the fashion industry, one characterised by issues such as dramatic shifts in the scale and power of major retail buyers in the market, the advent of retailer own brands, and the nature of sourcing and supply chain decisions, issues that are increasingly global in nature. The aim of this research is to explore the nature of relationships between UK high street multiple fashion retailers and their contracted suppliers, many of whom are entrepreneurial firms by most definitions of the term. Four core themes emerge from the literature and provide a framework for the research, namely, power, process, partnership, and people. The research approach was qualitative, and conducted over a period of twelve months. The paper ends with an agenda for future research.