Industry specific effects in investment performance and valuation of firms

A necessary criterion for a performance measure in corporate governance is the degree to which it mirrors how well the management succeeds in maximizing firm value. Such a performance measure is marginal q which links changes in firm value to the investments undertaken by the management. Empirical studies of investment and performance based on marginal q have demonstrated the usefulness of this measure. Most research however, has mainly focused on long-term performance. This paper takes a short-term perspective and, based on the marginal q-theory, considers how firms’ market values change in the extreme stock price cycle of a stock market bubble. Using a data set of listed Swedish corporations we find an anomaly in form of a new industry specific effect that, in addition to investment, explains changes in firm value.

Fiscal-monetary policy coordination and debt management: a two-stage analysis

We study interactions between two policymakers, central bank and government, in managing public debt as the result of a two-stage game. In the first stage, the institutional regime is established. This determines the equilibrium solution for the second stage, in which a differential game is played between the two policymakers. It is shown that, if the policymakers can communicate before the game is played (multiple-equilibrium), coordination problems can be solved by using the concept of correlated equilibrium.

Corporate social responsibility and the ‘game of catallaxy’: the perspective of constitutional economics

The paper examines the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) from the perspective of constitutional economics, focusing on the distinction between a political community’s constitutional choice of the rules of the “market game,” and the market players’ sub-constitutional choice of strategies within these rules. Three versions of CSR-demands are identified and discussed, a “soft,” a “hard”, and a “radical” version. The soft version is concerned with the issue of how “socially responsible” corporations ought to play the market game within existing rules. The hard version is about how the rules of the market ought to be changed in order to induce “socially responsible” corporate behavior. And the radical version questions the compatibility of CSR and the logic of the market game, calling in effect for adopting some alternative economic regime.

Bargaining with random implementation: An experimental study

We use a laboratory experiment to study bargaining with random implementation. We modify the standard Nash demand game so that incompatible demands do not necessarily lead to the disagreement outcome. Rather, with exogenous probability q, one bargainer receives his/her demand, with the other getting the remainder. We use an asymmetric bargaining set (favouring one bargainer) and disagreement payoffs of zero, and we vary q over several values.Our results mostly support game theoryʼs directional predictions. As with conventional arbitration, we observe a strong chilling effect on bargaining for q near one: extreme demands and low agreement rates. Increasing q reinforces the gameʼs built-in asymmetry – giving the favoured player an increasingly large share of payoffs – but also raising efficiency. These effects are non-uniform: over sizable ranges, increases in q have minimal effect, but for some q, small additional increases lead to sharp changes in results.     

Axiomatizations of two types of Shapley values for games on union closed systems

A situation in which a finite set of players can obtain certain payoffs by cooperation can be described by a cooperative game with transferable utility, or simply a TU-game. A (single-valued) solution for TU-games assigns a payoff distribution to every TU-game. A well-known solution is the Shapley value. In the literature various models of games with restricted cooperation can be found. So, instead of allowing all subsets of the player set N to form, it is assumed that the set of feasible coalitions is a subset of the power set of N. In this paper, we consider such sets of feasible coalitions that are closed under union, i.e. for any two feasible coalitions also their union is feasible. We consider and axiomatize two solutions or rules for these games that generalize the Shapley value: one is obtained as the conjunctive permission value using a corresponding superior graph, the other is defined as the Shapley value of a modified game similar as the Myerson value for games with limited communication.     

The Choquet Bargaining Solutions

We axiomatically investigate the problem of rationalizing bargaining solutions by social welfare functions that are linear in every rank-ordered subset of Rⁿ₊ . Such functions, the so-called Choquet integrals, have been widely used in the theories of collective and individual choice. We refer to bargaining solutions that can be rationalized by Choquet integrals as Choquet bargaining solutions. Our main result is a complete characterization of Choquet bargaining solutions. As a corollary of our main result, we also obtain a characterization of the generalized Gini bargaining solutions introduced by Blackorby et al. (1994, Econometrica62, 1161–1178). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, C78.     

Perfect versus Imperfect Observability—An Experimental Test of Bagwell's Result

In a seminal paper Bagwell ((1995). Games Econom. Behav.8, 271–280) claims that the first mover advantage, i.e., the strategic benefit of committing oneself to an action before others can, vanishes completely if this action is only imperfectly observed by second movers. In our paper we report on an experimental test of this prediction. We implement four versions of a game similar to an example given by Bagwell, each time varying the quality of the signal which informs the second mover. For experienced players we do not find empirical support for Bagwell's result. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C92.     

A note on the one-deviation property in extensive form games

In an extensive form game, an assessment is said to satisfy the one-deviation property if for all possible payoffs at the terminal nodes the following holds: if a player at each of his information sets cannot improve upon his expected payoff by deviating unilaterally at this information set only, he cannot do so by deviating at any arbitrary collection of information sets. Hendon et al. (1996. Games Econom. Behav. 12, 274–282) have shown that pre-consistency of assessments implies the one-deviation property. In this note, it is shown that an appropriate weakening of pre-consistency, termed updating consistency, is both a sufficient and necessary condition for the one-deviation property. The result is extended to the context of rationalizability.     

Social learning and costly information acquisition

Summary. Short-lived agents want to predict a random variable q\theta and have to decide how much effort to devote to collect private information and consequently how much to rely on public information. The latter is just a noisy average of past predictions. It is shown that costly information acquisition prevents an unbounded accumulation of public information if (and only if) the marginal cost to acquire information is positive at zero (C￠(0) > 0)(C^\prime (0) > 0). When C￠(0) = 0C^\prime (0) = 0 public precision at period n, _boxclose_boxclose\tau_n, tends to infinity with n but the rate of convergence of public information to q\theta is slowed down with respect to the exogenous information case. At the market outcome agents acquire too little private information. This happens either with respect to a (decentralized) first best benchmark or, for n large, with respect to a (decentralized) second best benchmark. For high discount factors the limit point of market public precision always falls short of the welfare benchmarks whenever C￠(0) > 0C^\prime (0) > 0. In the extreme, as the discount factor tends to one public precision tends to infinity in the welfare-optimal programs while it remains bounded at the market solution. Otherwise, if C￠(0) = 0C^\prime (0) = 0 public precision accumulates in an unbounded way both at the first and second best solutions. More public information may hurt at either the market or second best solutions.     

Information Disclosure Policies: When Do They Bring Environmental Improvements?

There has been a growing interest among policy makers on the use of information disclosure policies for pollution control. This paper theoretically assesses the consequences of information disclosure policies and identifies the conditions under which such policies are likely to bring environmental improvements. Based on a dynamic game framework, the paper shows that both eco-labeling and more general full information disclosure policies may not always result in pollution reduction. Full information disclosure policies are likely to be effective if the product is not heavily polluting and if the minimum quality standard is set quite low. The paper also identifies the conditions under which all consumers are strictly better off with information disclosure policies.

Noncooperative Equilibrium and Chamberlinian Monopolistic Competition

This paper addresses the existence of equilibrium for a nonatomic Bertrand game in a Chamberlinian environment. We reformulate O. Hart′s model (Rev. Econ. Stud. 52, 1985, 529–546) as a nonatomic game and show that under dispersion of tastes and continuity of the tastes density, there exists a pure-strategies ε-equilibrium where prices exceed marginal cost. Unlike Hart′s model there is no need to impose uniformity (or even independence) on the distribution of the m-tuple of differential commodities that consumers care about. Moreover, demand curves are allowed to vary across firms and in equilibrium firms may earn profits. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: B21, D43, L13.     

Evolution and Mixed Strategies

Selten (1980, J. Theoret. Biol., 84, 93–101) showed that no mixed equilibria are evolutionarily stable when players can condition their strategies on their roles in a game. Alternatively, Harsanyi's (1973, Int. J. Game Theory, 2, 1–23) purification argument implies that all mixed equilibria are approximations of strict, and hence evolutionarily stable, equilibria of games with slightly perturbed payoffs. This paper reconciles these results: Approximations of mixed equilibria have high invasion barriers, and hence are likely to persist, when payoff perturbations are relatively important and role identification is relatively noisy. When payoff perturbations are unimportant and role identification is precise, approximations of mixed equilibria will have small invasion barriers and are unlikely to persist. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, C78.     

The Role of Absolute Continuity in “Merging of Opinions” and “Rational Learning”

D. Blackwell and L. Dubins (1962, Ann. Math. Statist.38, 882–886) showed that opinions merge when priors are absolutely continuous. E. Kalai and E. Lehrer (1993, Econometrica61, 1019–1045) use this result to show that players in a repeated game eventually play like a Nash equilibrium. We provide an alternative proof of merging of opinions that clarifies the role of absolute continuity while casting doubt on the relevance of the result. Persistent disagreement, the opposite of merging, allows the construction of a sequence of mutually favorable “bets.” By a law of large numbers, both agents are certain they will win these bets on average. This certain disagreement violates absolute continuity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C11, C69, C72, D83.     

Lexicographic composition of simple games

Certain voting bodies can be modeled as a simple game where a coalition's winning depends on whether it wins, blocks or loses in two smaller simple games. There are essentially five such ways to combine two proper games into a proper game. The most decisive is the lexicographic rule, where a coalition must either win in G₁, or block in G₁ and win in G₂. When two isomorphic games are combined lexicographically, a given role for a player confers equal or more power when held in the first game than the second, if power is assessed by any semi-value. A game is lexicographically separable when the players of the two components partition the whole set. Games with veto players are not separable, and games of two or more players with identical roles are separable only if decisive. Some separable games are egalitarian in that they give players identical roles.     

A game of timing and visibility

We consider the following abstraction of competing publications. There are n players in the game. Each player i chooses a point x_i in the interval [0,1], and a player's payoff is the distance from its point x_i to the next larger point, or to 1 if x_i is the largest. For this game, we give a complete characterization of the Nash equilibrium for the two-player game, and, more important, we give an efficient approximation algorithm to compute numerically the symmetric Nash equilibrium for the n-player game. The approximation is computed via a discrete version of the game. In both cases, we show that the (symmetric) equilibrium is unique. Our algorithmic approach to the n-player game is non-standard in that it does not involve solving a system of differential equations. We believe that our techniques can be useful in the analysis of other timing games.     

On the computation of stable sets and strictly perfect equilibria

Summary. In this paper a procedure is described that computes for a given bimatrix game all stable sets in the sense of Kohlberg and Mertens (1986). Further the procedure is refined to find the strictly perfect equilibria (if any) of such a game. Recieved: December 29, 1999; revised version: February 17, 2000     

An admissible set occurring in various bargaining situations

Given a set of alternatives S and a binary relation M on S the admissible set of the pair (S, M) is defined to be the set of maximal elements with respect to the transitive closure of M. It is shown that existing solutions in game theory and mathematical economics are special cases of this concept (they are admissible sets of a natural S and M). These include the core of an n-person cooperative game, Nash equilibria of a noncooperative game, and the max-min solution of a two-person zero sum game. The competitive equilibrium prices of a finite exchange economy are always contained in its admissible set. Special general properties of the admissible set are discussed. These include existence, stability, and a stochastic dynamic process which leads to outcomes in the admissible set with high probability.     

Forming and Dissolving Partnerships in Cooperative Game Situations

A group of players in a cooperative game are partners (e.g., as in the form of a union or a joint ownership) if the prospects for cooperation are restricted such that cooperation with players outside the partnership requires the accept of all the partners. The formation of such partnerships through binding agreements may change the game implying that players could have incentives to manipulate a game by forming or dissolving partnerships. The present paper seeks to explore the existence of allocation rules that are immune to this type of manipulation. An allocation rule that distributes the worth of the grand coalition among players is called partnership formation‐proof if it ensures that it is never jointly profitable for any group of players to form a partnership and partnership dissolution‐proof if no group can ever profit from dissolving a partnership. The paper provides results on the existence of such allocation rules for general classes of games as well as more specific results concerning well‐known allocation rules.     

Remarks on the application of statistical games to technological development forecasting

This work presents the probability of determining a quantitative forecast of technological development S(t) defined by a set m of parameters S⁽¹⁾(t),S⁽²⁾(t),…,S^(m)(t), based on statistical game theory. Assuming that the coordinates S⁽ⁱ⁾(t) (i = 1, 2,…,m) of a forecasted vector S(t) are stochastic processes with given probabilistic characteristics, a formula of a function forecasting the value of a coordinate S⁽ⁱ⁾(t) of this vector can be obtained. This formula permits to determine a vector of forecasts _τT(x) of technological development S(t) at a given moment t = τ+T.     

On Learning to Cooperate

This paper shows that experimentation can have the effect of inducing outcomes that are “far” from Nash in a learning model similar to that studied by D. Fudenberg and D. K. Levine (1993, Econometrica61, 547-573). The game under consideration is a version of a finitely repeated prisoner's dilemma, and the average length of players' lifetimes is arbitrarily large, but fixed. If the number of stages in the prisoner's dilemma is sufficiently large, then experimentation induces cooperation within the society on an arbitrarily large scale, even though the beliefs of almost all players are eventually within an arbitrary η>0 of being correct at all of the information sets in the game. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72.