A remark on rational expectation equilibria with incomplete markets and real assets

In this note, I established the existence, for a generic set of endowments, of a fully revealing rational expectation equilibrium (REE) in an economy characterized by incomplete markets and real assets.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

欧元对我国金融市场的影响分析

欧元从最初构想到进入正式流通历经坎坷,终于成功统一了欧洲多国的货币。在过去半个世纪中,国内、外学者提出并发展了关于最优货币区、国际货币体系改革和金融市场一体化等方面的多项理论,欧元的出现为这些理论提供了一个绝佳的验证机会。文章旨在研究欧元诞生后对国际金融市场以及对我国金融市场的影响。     

投资者保护与会计信息披露:一个互动的分析框架

本文分析了投资者保护与会计信息披露之间的内在关系,指出会计信息披露是重要的投资者保护机制,能有效缓解公司内部人与外部人之间的信息不对称,减少代理成本。与此同时,法律对投资者的保护决定了控制权的私人收益,进而影响会计信息披露质量。改善会计信息披露质量的新思路。     

Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.     

Entry and barriers to entry in emerging markets

This note briefly introduces the symposium on entry and entry barriers in emerging markets edited by Nauro Campos and Saul Estrin. The symposium contains four inter-related case studies focusing in depth on the relationship between entry of new firms and institutional arrangements in four major emerging markets: Brazil, China, India and Russia. We find that entry rates are not necessarily low in emerging markets, and that institutional quality is a complex and “fuzzy” notion so that its impact on the entry process is not straightforward.     

Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities

Markets for illicit drugs present an interesting case study for economics, combining non-standard characteristics such as addiction and product illegality. One response has been to argue the generality of economic principles by suggesting that they apply even in the extreme case of markets for addictive substances, e.g., by showing that demand for illicit goods is responsive to price [1] [Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; 2000. p. 89-111.] and even by modeling addiction as rational [2] [J Political Econ 1988;96:675-700]. This paper sketches examples of an alternative reaction, focusing on idiosyncrasies of drug markets that might plausibly create counter-intuitive effects, including supply curves that slope downward because of enforcement swamping and/or a good serving as the only available store of wealth for its producer, demand reduction programs that increase demand, and consumption by “jugglers” possibly increasing rather than decreasing as prices rise. This analysis yields non-obvious policy recommendations; for example, source country control programs should concentrate on growing regions with a healthy banking sector.     

双边平台型信息产品企业版本划分策略研究

新兴的信息产品市场大多是双边市场,其中企业进行竞争时如何利用信息产品特性和市场双边特性,对产品质量和双边定价进行决策,运用纵向差异化策略达到最优收益,是双边平台型信息产品企业面对的重要问题。结合双边市场理论与版本划分理论,建立博弈模型,分析双边信息产品市场内平台型企业竞争的最优双边定价和产品版本划分的具体质量。结果显示:企业产品定价受产品组合质量差异的影响,对卖家定价由市场情况决定;企业提高付费产品质量可以提高收益,此时免费产品质量应根据市场双边特性强度进行调整;市场双边特性显著时企业免费产品质量应降低以提高收益,反之亦然;企业产品质量决策保证了双边规模和上游收益,下游收益则受市场双边特性强弱影响,市场双边特性显著时,平台付费产品价格和付费消费者规模提高,下游收益和总收益提高。     

Robust efficiency in mixed economies with asymmetric information

In this paper, we study robustly efficient allocations in a pure exchange economy. Answering a question of Hervés-Beloso and Moreno-García (2008), we present an extension of their main result to an asymmetric information mixed economy whose commodity space is an ordered separable Banach space having an interior point in its positive cone.     

Promoting competitive markets: The role of public procurement

The study presented here examines how public procurement agencies address establishing and maintaining competitive markets; a topic still in its academic infancy. Cases are used to address impediments and improve understanding of strategic priorities in managing for competitive markets. Public policy academics have observed many competing policies in the wider public sector. Specifically, this paper identifies a need for research on supplier incentives at a market level, on the post contract management of suppliers and as an important sub-set, key supplier relationship management, along with professional development.     

Cobweb dynamics and price dispersion in illicit drug markets

Extreme price dispersion is a hallmark of illegal drug markets, and this apparent contradiction to the law of one price has long puzzled drug market economists. We propose a novel explanation for this dispersion: the coupling of dealers’ unwillingness to hold inventory with dealers’ imperfect foresight concerning future prices and/or random lead times when “ordering” drugs from higher-level suppliers. Unwillingness to hold inventory means drug markets might operate consistent with a cobweb model. The classic cobweb model was inspired by the observation of cyclic (typically annual) fluctuations in commodity prices. However, with minor changes that make the model more realistic the resulting price trajectories can be highly variable or even chaotic, not just periodic. Cobweb dynamics can also amplify the variability created by supply chain disruptions.     

Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets

We conduct an extensive examination of the profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25,988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchange markets, we find that the best rules can sometimes generate an annual mean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. However, almost all of these profits vanish once the data snooping bias is taken into account. Overall, we show that the profitability of technical analysis is illusory.     

Modeling common volatility characteristics and dynamic risk premia in European equity markets

The paper applies a Factor-GARCH model to evaluate the impact of the market portfolio, as a single common dynamic risk factor, on conditional volatility and risk premia for the returns on size-based equity portfolios of three major European markets; France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The results show that for the size-based portfolios the factor loading for the dynamic market factor is significant and positive but the association between the risk premia and the conditional market volatility is weak. However, the dynamic market factor is shown to explain common characteristics in the conditional variance such as asymmetry and persistence. This finding is consistent across markets and portfolio sizes.     

东西部区域市场协调发展研究

区域协调发展是建设和谐社会的重要组成部分。区域市场的不协调发展,将会影响到我国改革开放的深化和社会主义现代化建设的进程。文章着重从东西部市场非均衡发展存在的问题及成因入手,从市场容量、商品市场、流通市场等微观角度进行阐述,并在此基础上提出相应的对策。     

On Bahadur efficiency of empirical likelihood

This paper studies the Bahadur efficiency of empirical likelihood for testing moment condition models. It is shown that under mild regularity conditions, the empirical likelihood overidentifying restriction test is Bahadur efficient, i.e., its p$p$-value attains the fastest convergence rate under each fixed alternative hypothesis. Analogous results are derived for parameter hypothesis testing and set inference problems.     

A model of vertical integration and investment in generation capacity in electricity markets: The case of the bidding game

The aim of this work is to assess the impact of (partial) vertical integration between generators and retailers on generation capacity choice and its subsequent welfare consequences. We present a framework in which final demand is perfectly inelastic and stochastic. Nevertheless, wholesale demand is elastic because of the existence of outside opportunities (mainly international transmission capacity). The model is a three-stage game. Neither transmission nor retail costs are taken into account.

In the first stage of the game, generators choose capacity only knowing distribution of demand and thus maximizing their expected profit. The second stage of the game represents the competition for market share between retailers in a market where consumers have switching costs. The former face unknown demand and maximize their utility based on two factors: the expected profit and a risk element. Finally, generators submit bid functions to the system operator given known demand and maximizing their profit during the last stage of the game. Retailers and generators interact in the wholesale market, which is cleared by the system operator whose function is to match supply (represented by the bids of the generators) and demand through a system of single price auctions. The wholesale market is the only means to buy and sell energy; there are no bilateral contracts between firms, except if they are vertically integrated.

We compare fully disintegrated and partially vertically integrated structures using a comparative statics approach. In this paper, the analysis will focus on the last stage of the game: the bidding game. We find that partial vertical integration between generators and retailers tends to lower wholesale prices but not unambiguously. Depending on which firm (vertically integrated or disintegrated generator) has installed the higher capacity and depending on level of demand, prices can stay unchanged or even rise.     

Maximal asymptotic power and efficiency of two-sample tests based on generalized U-Statistics

In this article a systematic study is given of the asymptotic behavior of two-sample tests based on U-Statistics with arbitrary antisymmetric kernels . Besides the investigation under the hypothesis and under fixed alternatives we determine the local power as a function of as well as its maximizing value _opt. Moreover formulas for the asymptotic relative efficiency ARE(₂,₁) of the ₂-test with respect to the ₁-test are derived. It turns out that _opt also yields the most efficient test in the sense that ARE(_opt,)1 for all (admissible) kernels .     

On second-price auctions and imperfect competition

Consider two sellers each of whom has one unit of an indivisible good and two buyers each of whom is interested in buying one unit. The sellers simultaneously set reserve prices and use second-price auctions as rationing device. An equilibrium in pure strategies where each seller has a regular customer is characterized. The result is applied in order to demonstrate that not allowing sellers to use second-price auctions may enhance total surplus.