户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策——基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究

文章从制度变迁视角分析了户籍改革难以突破的原因,在发展主义理念的指引下,如果户籍改革对地方经济增长或财政收支产生负面影响,地方政府可能会拖延或阻碍改革进程。基于大中城市面板数据的实证研究显示,特大城市提高门槛对地方人均产出有正面影响,户籍改革动力最弱。其他城市虽然可以通过降低户籍门槛提高人均产出水平,但率先放开户籍制度可能引发流动人口大量涌入抵消政策效果,地方政府的户籍改革动力随着城市人口规模增长逐步下降。同时,户籍人口增长会带来财政支出的显著增加,为避免户籍化政策对财政支出产生压力,地方政府会通过户籍门槛对流动人口进行筛选,将对财政收入贡献较低或产生明显财政支出的群体排斥在户籍门槛之外。本文认为中国大中城市的户籍制度存在刚性,可以通过收回地方制定落户政策的权力强制推动户籍制度改革,或利用财政政策降低户籍化成本,激励地方政府推动改革。     

加快剥离户籍的附加功能,比“户籍改革”更重要

世界上大多数国家都有户籍制度或者变相的户籍制度。但是,给户籍附加各种其他功能、把户籍同各种国民待遇挂钩特别是同社会保障挂钩的国家很少。我们现在面临的一个突出问题是,各级政府特别是地方政府将户籍同公民权利、公民待遇挂钩,把各种五花八门的功能附加在户籍上面,人为造成城市户籍人口和农村户籍人口两个天地,人为造成城乡隔离。这是我们在城市化进程中需要迫切解决的问题。     

户籍追溯

2007年9月1日,青岛市正式出台《关于进一步深化户籍管理制度改革的通知》,实施新的户籍管理政策。此次"户籍新政"的突破在于取消了户口性质中农业与非农业的划分,同时,也放宽了各类专业人才引进、直系亲属投靠以及在青岛购房居住的人员落户条件,被专家称为户籍管理历史中里程碑式的变革。     

户籍城门正向百姓敞开

户口，是与中国人的社会生活息息相关的特殊证件。在中国社会中，每个人的出生、上学、就业、参军、结婚、迁徙……无不受到户口的制约。尤其是在农村与城市之间、小城市与大城市之间，户籍就如一道无形的屏障，让人很难逾越。几十年来，这道屏障像一道钢铁的城墙，横亘在人们的面前。今年３月，国务院批转了公安部《关于推进小城镇户籍管理制度改革的意见》，并在浙江先行试点。至此，户籍这道城门才慢慢地向百姓敞开。户籍改革忽如一夜春风来建国以来，中国户籍管理制度的变化大致可划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，１９５８年以前，属自由迁徙…     

全国户籍改革试点县——德清县户籍制度改革研究探索

二元制户籍导致不同户籍的公民在社会福利待遇、教育、就业等方面存在着很大的差距.德清县自2012年6月起着手户籍制度改革相关工作,将形式化的城乡二元结构优化改革为城乡一元结构.本文通过对德清县户籍制度改革的背景及主要内容等定证分析与研究,总结户籍改革的优势,给有关地区和部门提供参考.     

户籍改革宜稳步推进

自去年10月1日起，中国以两万多个小城镇为重点全面推行了户籍制度改革。在此之前，石家庄、广州等大城市已逐渐放开户籍，户籍管理制度改革能改变城市保护主义和对农民的歧视，有利于全面推进国家的现代化进程。据统计，目前在全国各地城市里寻找生计的民工大约有8000万人，如果为他们提供充分的条件，允许城乡劳动力在同等条件下竞争，无论对农民、农业、农村和城市，都有良性作用。     

户籍改革难解迁徙之困

继重庆户籍改革之后,成都将在2012年实现城乡统一户籍,民众可自由迁徙,并享有平等的基本公共服务和社会福利。这就意味着,统一城乡户籍改革不会剥夺农民的权益,农民可享受＂双重福利＂,不用担心＂裸着身子出村＂     

户籍改革：仅有城市户口还不够

关于户籍制度改革，城乡二元经济体制改变，农民工享受国民待遇的重要性，已毋需太多讨论。令人担忧的是，在各种配套改革没有跟上的情况下，有关部门近日提出的取消城乡户口差别的举措对于城市中的“外地人”有多大意义？相关各部门如不出来承担起各自的责任，喧嚣热议的户籍改革又能持续多久？[编者按]     

户籍改革：让启口本成为收藏品

据媒体报道,最近江西、江苏、福建等省纷纷出台取消城乡户籍差别、实现城乡保障一体化的政策实施细则;北京市也宣布推出户籍改革的重大举措,北京城市户口开始向郊区敞开。上述新闻表明,中国户籍制度改革进程开始提速,中国正式启动了城乡统一户籍制,城乡户籍壁垒开始被打破。户籍制度改革首先是一种观念上的变革,与户籍制度改革密切相关的乃是迁徙自由问题。迁徙自由其实是     

刘易斯转折点后我国城市劳动力市场中户籍歧视的变化

运用北京大学中国社会科学调查中心实施的中国家庭追踪调查数据,将城市劳动力按照户籍和劳动力是否跨县流动划分为本地城镇、本地农村、外来城镇、外来农村4类,并运用Oaxaca-Blinder方法对城镇劳动力和农村劳动力的就业机会与工资收入差距进行分解,分析了2012年至2016年我国劳动力市场上就业机会和工资收入歧视的变化.结果表明,随着时间的推移,农村劳动力遭受的就业和工资的户籍歧视程度在下降,但面临的户籍歧视仍不可忽视,外来劳动力遭受的户籍歧视比本地劳动力更严重.此外,教育对就业获得及工资收入有显著的正向影响,城镇劳动力可以获得更高的教育回报率.     

Sectoral asymmetries and a social-welfare interpretation of Hukou

The Hukou system's restriction of Chinese internal migration is controversial. This paper models internal migration in a dual economy and assesses the social welfare consequences of the Hukou system. It contrasts the effects of absolute prohibition of migration with the mere exclusion of migrants from certain services such as health care and education. Asymmetries between the rural and urban sectors mean that optimality may require different levels of utility in the two sectors. The existence of a floating population, however, is inconsistent with an optimal labor allocation.     

Return migration and Hukou registration constraints in Chinese cities

This paper documents the patterns of return migration and labor mobility constraints in China using two unique data: the 2017 China Household Finance Survey and a newly developed urban Hukou registration index. The size of return migrants is larger than that of migrants without local Hukou registration. Majority of return migrants move from more developed region back to their less developed home town where they have Hukou registration. Empirical results show that Hukou registration barrier, typically higher in more developed cities, leads to a higher probability of returning among low-skilled migrant workers, and such an effect only exits among migrants moving across provinces and migrants with rural Hukou.     

Hukou system reforms and skilled-unskilled wage inequality in China

In China, rural migrant workers usually cannot get fair treatment due to the hukou system. This paper investigates how hukou system reforms affect the skilled-unskilled wage inequality through the general equilibrium approach. In the basic model, we find that an increase in the strength of hukou system reforms will narrow down the wage inequality if the urban skilled sector is more capital intensive than the urban unskilled sector. In addition, we separately extend the basic model by introducing the endogenous minimum wage and an informal sector, and find that in these two extended cases the main results of the basic model will conditionally or unconditionally hold. When we consider some empirical evidences in China, our models predict that an increase in the strength of hukou system reforms will reduce the wage inequality.     

Hukou System Reform and Unification of Rural-urban Social Welfare

Using a political economy analytical framework, the present paper examines the hukou system reform in China. The potential unification of the social welfare system of rural and urban areas is discussed. The paper reviews the progress of hukou system reform since 2004. It is suggested that since China met its Lewis turning point in about 2004, and a labor shortage became a limiting factor in production, there has been stronger demand for hukou system reform. In the meantime, various levels of government have a point where incentives are compatibile for carrying out reforms. The paper also explores some limitations of the currently implemented reform in certain regions and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.     

Hukou and Graduates’ Job Search in China*

This paper presents evidence that graduates from rural areas, classified as non‐urban Hukou, choose to invest in higher levels of job‐search effort (as measured by number of different search methods used and the number of employers contacted) and also set a lower reservation wage, reflected in acceptance of a lower starting salary, than do comparable graduates of urban Hukou, in China. The former also appear to have higher probabilities of being employed, in terms of both their higher probabilities of receiving offers and, more importantly, their higher probabilities of acceptance. The evidence thus suggests that graduates with non‐urban Hukou face more intense pressure to gain employment in the period leading up to graduation, than do their urban counterparts. More generally, the evidence suggests that effort invested in job search is rewarded in the graduate labor market in China.     

Does Hukou pay? Evidence from nanny markets in urban China

This paper quantifies the effect of the Chinese Hukou (household registration) on expected wage of nannies in urban China. Using a novel data set with detailed individual information of nannies from 12 Chinese cities during 2015–2016, this study finds that a 1% increase in Hukou Index, a measure of inter-regional migration restrictions, leads to a 0.05% increase in expected wage of nannies. The effect is heterogeneous for sub-categories of Hukou policies and among different types of nannies. Migration networks also play a significant role, and the effects are different for migration networks of different sizes. These findings reveal the unexpected consequences of China’s tight control of internal migration and the change in wages of a relatively low-skill service sector.     

Hukou status,housing tenure choice and wealth accumulation in urban China

In Chinese cities, migrants with rural hukou, compared to residents with local urban hukou, face more uncertainty, have limited access to mortgage finance, and are less eligible for low-cost housing. A simple model demonstrates that for these reasons, rural-to-urban migrants are less likely to own housing units in cities and as a result accumulate less wealth. Our empirical analysis examines a nationally representative household survey from 2013 and uses mother's hukou status as an instrumental variable. We find that household heads with rural hukou are about 20 percentage points less likely to own housing units in cities than comparable household heads with local urban hukou. Consequently, the average household head with a rural hukou owns 315 thousand yuan less housing wealth and 226 thousand yuan less total wealth than comparable household heads with local urban hukou. The average household head with a rural hukou has 288 thousand yuan less in housing capital gains than comparable household heads with local urban hukou. Moreover, we find that these differences are much larger in the first- and second-tier cities, cities with more stringent hukou regulations, and among younger cohorts.     

The Hukou system's constraints on migrant workers' job mobility in Chinese cities

Most studies on discrimination against migrants in Chinese cities focus on wage differentials. This paper endeavours to develop an alternative way of explaining the institutional discrimination against migrants by studying workers' job mobility rates in three cities: Beijing, WuXi and Zhuhai. Migrants are commonly perceived to have high occupational mobility; however, Cox proportional hazards regressions in this paper show a different picture. Institutional discrimination reduces the number of jobs available to the migrants, increases their job search costs and the cost of losing jobs. Even though migrants take jobs unacceptable to local residents, the effects of this institutional discrimination still constrain migrants in changing jobs. The regressions show that temporary migrants have longer job durations and shorter unemployment durations than local people or permanent migrants. Moreover, migrants start to change jobs more often only after they have stayed in the city for some time and have accumulated enough assets to be able to survive when unemployed.     

Hukou identity and trust—Evidence from a framed field experiment in China

Social integration between migrant and local populations is a major social issue in the development of Chinese society. The most direct impact is reflected in trust and trustworthiness between the local household registered population and the nonlocal household registered population. In this paper, using the framed field experiment method with local and nonlocal hukou pupils as subjects, hukou identity is exogenously introduced into the trust game through information disclosure and “priming” technology to investigate whether hukou identity affects trust between the two hukou identities. The experimental results show that the concept of hukou identity and its characterized cognition of different treatments have been implanted in people since childhood, thereby affecting their trust and trustworthiness in the process of social integration. Subjects will show more trust (more investment) towards local hukou pupils compared to nonlocal hukou pupils, and subjects will show higher trustworthiness (more return amount) towards partners who share hukou identity than those with a different hukou identity.     

基于网络文本的山西壶口瀑布旅游形象感知研究

采用内容分析法研究游客对山西壶口瀑布旅游形象的感知。研究发现：山西壶口瀑布旅游形象可以总结为依托景区环境、景区配套设施、游客构成、游客感知、游客行为活动;游客多以积极的情感态度为主,消极情感占比较低,游客总体满意度较高。最后,从实施合理的价格策略、丰富旅游产品供给、深挖文化内涵、完善基础设施和旅游配套设施、提升管理和服务水平方面提出提升山西壶口瀑布旅游形象的措施和建议。