股权估值——折现法（一）

股票估值分为绝对估值、相对估值和联合估值。之前介绍的倍数比较法属于相对估值。绝对估值是通过对上市公司基本状况的分析和对其未来财务数据的预测,得出公司股票的内在价值。绝对估值的方法有红利折现模型（DDM）和自由现金流模型（DCF）。     

预期现金流贴现（DCF）估值法浅析

作为一种科学的价值评估方法,预期现金流贴现（DCF）估值法经常被用于企业内在价值和投资项目的评估中。近来,该方法也开始逐渐被运用于我行贷款价值的定量评估。总行《关于进一步加强贷款风险分类管理的通知》（农银发[2008]107号）明确规定：“预期现金流贴现（DCF测试）…,应作为风险分类的必要依据。…凡法人客户贷款形态调整（正常与关注的调整除外）,必须进行单笔DCF测试”。     

新零售模式下企业价值评估研究——以居然之家为例

根据新零售模式下企业的特点，提出将财务和非财务两个层面相结合对新零售模式下企业的价值进行分析评估。财务层面上主要采用EVA估值模型进行价值估算研究；非财务层面上，从新零售模式下企业的运营能力、业务规模、用户体验以及人才影响四个层面选取价值指标，形成了一个有相互影响的网络指数价值体系，以便更好地代表在各种不确定条件下专家们的看法，将直觉模糊集运用于判断矩阵的构建中，同时根据二元语义进行综合评估，得出所有非财务因素对公司价值评估的影响系数，进而将该系数对EVA估值法的估值结果进行修正得到最终企业评估价值；最后以上市的居然之家为例阐述了怎样正确运用本文所提示的具体方法。     

CWVM模型：公司长期价值评估的新框架

在缺乏未来成长性、收益不确定性的正确预测条件下，市盈率只是从相对盈利性角度对可比公司进行比较的一个指标或参数，最多是相对价值所依赖的价值尺度之一，为了全面评估可比公司的相对价值，必须构造出其他估值尺度(即估值倍数)，对可比公司的相对价值进行综合评价。与传统的公司估值模型相比，CWVM模型将是一种较好的选择。     

小议企业价值评估中的持续经营假设

在企业价值评估中,主要的评估方法有收益法、加和法和市盈率倍数法,而其中收益法、市盈率倍数法都建立在企业持续经营假设基础上。持续经营假设即指在企业价值评估时,假定企业将按照原来的经营目的、经营方式持续地经营下去,它的运用是建立在对企业能够持续经营的专业判断上。笔者认为,可以从以下几个方面判断是否能够在企业价值评估中运用持续经营假设。     

企业价值评估中设立合理假设条件的重要性

企业价值评估中会大量运用假设条件。本文通过阐述假设条件在企业价值评估中对估值结果可能产生的种种影响,讨论假设条件合理性的重要地位。     

模糊环境下商标权评估的实物期权定价模型

模糊环境下基于实物期权的商标权评估模型,是考虑了商标权具有扩张期权、收缩期权、放弃期权等期权特征,以及商誉潜在价值的不确定性等因素,将实物期权定价模型与模糊集理论相结合而提出的一种商标权价值评估方法。它比传统的DCF法能够更合理地评估商标权的价值。     

战略期权评估法

前文所述的投资评估法是基于贴现现金流法(DCF),是投资界最常用、最经典的方法,该方法基于可以预测的未来现金流和确定的贴现率进行估值。但这样的假设和现实情况的矛盾使得它在现实投资决策中的应用具有很大的局限性,其预测结果具有较大的偏差。据此所作的投资决策一旦付诸实施,通常不具备可逆     

互联网企业价值评估研究

近年来,互联网行业快速发展,互联网企业之间通过开展融资、资产并购重组、股权转让等经济业务,在竞争中谋求发展.随之而来的问题是确切地评估一家互联网企业的价值,这成为一个新的课题.本文首先在总结前人的基础上,对企业价值评估常用的传统方法,包括收益法、市场法以及成本法进行了分析;其次,对适用于互联网企业特征的DEVA方法、实物期权法进行分析,并指出互联网企业评估难点;最后,结合美团网分别采用传统法现金流贴现法和DEVA估值法进行价值评估,认为DEVA估值法更适用于互联网企业.     

再保险对车险业务价值的贡献研究

再保险是现代保险经营过程中不可缺少的重要环节,对减缓保险经营的波动风险、稳定保险业务的经营成果和提高保险资本的运营效率等方面均发挥着重要的积极作用。同样,在车险领域,对车险业务进行有针对性的再保险安排,能够在车险业务价值管理中起到积极的提升作用,对车险业务定价中的安全附加保费设定和资本成本效率提升都有着改善作用。本文是商业车险改革费率测算组有关车险业务价值研究课题的子课题之一,主要在经典的车险客户生命周期价值评估体系中引入再保险的价值贡献,通过引入资本成本变量来度量再保险对车险业务价值的贡献,并利用折现现金流(DCF)方法和经济附加值(EVA)方法结合相关数据对优化调整后的价值评估模型进行实证研究。     

Valuing a high-tech growth company: the case of EchoStar Communications Corporation

This article uses real options to value a high-tech company with significant growth option potential. The case of EchoStar Communications Corporation is used as an illustration. The company's growth opportunities are modeled and valued as a portfolio of growth options, namely options to expand its pay television, equipment, and internet services. Expansion of the main business can occur geographically (in the USA, internationally, and through partnerships) or through cross-selling of new products and services to its customer base. The internet business can expand via switching to digital subscriber line and through partnerships. The underlying asset (business) for the expansion options is the ‘base’ discounted cash flow (DCF), after removing the constant growth rate in the terminal-value DCF assumption. The options-based estimate of present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) value substitutes for the terminal growth DCF estimate. We show that our options-based portfolio PVGO provides a better estimate of the firm's growth prospects than the terminal growth DCF assumption.     

Apple's financial success: The precariousness of power exercised in global value chains

The topic of this paper is the Apple Inc business model and how, in a financialized world, the success of this business model is represented by what we term financial ‘point values’. Our argument is that there is a tendency to promote specific point valuation multiples as measures of success, but these values, by their nature, do not reveal the contingent and variable nature of the power relations exercised in and along global supply chains. Firms such as Apple exploit their resources and capabilities to ‘create value’ but also exercise power to recalibrate relationships with suppliers in the value chain to secure ‘value capture’ for financial transformation. Value capture is an active ingredient that can help inform our understanding of the fragility of the Apple business model value proposition and frame a critical argument regarding the precarious nature and sustainability of Apple's substantial profit margins.     

保险客户价值评估新方法及其应用初探

财产保险公司往往用综合成本率等传统财务指标来衡量某类客户的价值,以此作为各项经营决策的重要依据。但该类指标容易导致经营决策的短期倾向,不能有效对接资本市场对上市保险公司的价值评估要求,也不能很好的适应“偿二代”监管体系。笔者提出一种新方法——风险收益分析法来评估客户价值,运用风险的定量模型．综合评估不同客群的收益和风险水平。客观评价客户价值。同时本文探讨了该方法在业务策略、承保规则制定、再保方案、绩效评估等领域的应用方案。     

How Fundamental are Fundamental Values? Valuation Methods and their Impact on the Performance of German Venture Capitalists

This paper studies how the use of alternative valuation methodologies affects investment performance for a sample of 53 German venture capitalists. We measure investment performance by the amount of investments they need to write off and by the number of companies they take public. We find that a significant number of investment managers use discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, but only a minority appears to use a discount rate related to the cost of capital. The majority applies DCF using subjective discount rates. We present evidence that the use of DCF is correlated with superior investment performance only if applied in conjunction with an objectifiable discount rate. Also, funds that invest with a longer horizon perform better. The use of multiples is not significantly correlated with investment performance. We conclude that a focus on fundamental values confers an advantage.     

上市公司财务报告目的评估价值相关性研究——来自A股市场的经验证据

公允价值在会计准则中的广泛运用引致了以财务报告为目的的评估业务需求。本文选取了2004~2008年上市公司为研究样本,检验了以财务报告为目的的资产评估总体价值相关性以及基于资产减值测试的评估价值的市场反应。研究结果表明,新会计准则实施后的价值相关性显著提高,而资产减值的计提受投资者的关注度则有所减弱。这说明以财务报告为目的的评估有效地提高了会计信息的质量和信息含量,并在一定程度上抑制了滥用公允价值进行盈余管理的行为。从长远来看,深化经济的市场化程度,努力构建一个完整、统一、开放、充分竞争的市场,实现评估界与会计审计界的良性互动,同时加强会计监管及行业自律并对滥用公允价值及虚假评估行为予以严惩,仍是未来一段时期的重中之重。     

Valuing and pricing IPOs

This paper investigates how underwriters set the IPO firm’s fair value, an ex-ante estimate of the market value, using a unique dataset of 228 reports from French underwriters. These reports are issued before the IPO shares start trading on the stock market and detail how underwriters determined fair value. We document that underwriters often employ multiples valuation, dividend discount models and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine fair value but that all of these valuation methods suffer from a positive bias with respect to equilibrium market value. We also analyze how this fair value estimate is subsequently used as a basis for IPO pricing. We report that underwriters deliberately discount the fair value estimate when setting the preliminary offer price. Part of the intentional price discount can be recovered by higher price updates. We find that, controlling for other factors such as investor demand, part of underpricing stems from this intentional price discount.     

Assessing the Value of Growth Option Synergies from Business Combinations and Testing for Goodwill Impairment: A Real Options Perspective

Goodwill is an intangible asset, and therefore hard to measure and difficult to account for. This article argues that the two‐stage impairment test for acquired goodwill under SFAS 142 has several limitations. Most important, it measures aggregate rather than acquired goodwill, making it very difficult to separate acquisition‐related goodwill from aggregate enterprise goodwill after a business combination. As a consequence, any potential deterioration of acquired goodwill value could be concealed by increases in internally generated goodwill. As an alternative, the authors propose a real options approach to managing a business unit portfolio as a better framework for conducting the goodwill impairment test. A real options approach to testing goodwill for impairment—as opposed to the standard fair value assessment based on DCF analysis—not only accounts for deterioration in the value of goodwill, but also captures upward potential. It enables tracking of the changes in goodwill value from one period to the next, providing a less biased estimate of its real value at each point in time.     

TRANSFORMING ENRON: THE VALUE OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

Soon after Enron was formed as a regulated gas pipeline company in 1985, economic events forced a dramatic reorganization of the company. The result was the creation of an unregulated energy trading operation whose mission was to capitalize on opportunities arising from the deregulation of the natural gas market The initial form of the new business was that of a "gas bank" in which Enron became an intermediary between buyers and sellers of gas, locking in the spread as profit. Since there was no source of liquidity to the market, Enron had to develop its own risk management system.
Furthermore, the need to respond quickly to rapidly changing market conditions required that Enron flatten its organizational structure and hire new people whose skills were better suited to the new decentralized organization. The focus of the new Enron accordingly became human and intellectual capital, not physical assets. Employees were encouraged to move about the firm to staff new business ventures. And in what may well be a unique feature in corporate America, Enron's top management today uses its human capital flows to guide its allocations of financial capital. Other aspects of the Enron model include attempts to capitalize on the option (as opposed to current DCF) value of assets, recognition of the value of networks in adding value to trading platforms, and the use of mark-to-market accounting for business transactions as a means of ensuring transparency and promoting timely decision-making.     

Taking Real Options Beyond the Black Box

Finance theorists have long argued that DCF undervalues investment opportunities with significant flexibility to respond to future events and that real options valuation methods provide a solution to that problem. But for most corporate managers, real options analysis continues to be a "black box" when applied to real investment decisions.
This paper begins by considering why these approaches have not yet made it to the mainstream of practical application. It then shows how a traditional DCF approach can undervalue a project that provides management with operating flexibility and illustrates a case study that demonstrates to senior management how a real options valuation method with a few clear value drivers can build upon and be made consistent with the traditional DCF framework.
Critical to this process is ensuring consistency with the company's planning assumptions such as future price forecasts and discount rates. The article shows how to separate the static ("optionless") DCF value from the additional real options value that is shown to be a direct consequence of the assumptions about price dynamics.     

A pattern‐based approach to extract REA value models from business process models

Business models are economic models that describe the rationale of why organizations create and deliver value. These models focus on what organizations offer and why. Business process models capture business activities and the ways in which they are accomplished (i.e. their coordination). They explain who is involved in the activities, and how and when these activities should be performed. This paper discusses the alignment between business models and business process models. It proposes a novel systematic method for extracting a value chain (i.e. business model) expressed in the Resources, Events, Agents (REA) ontology from a business process model expressed in Business Process Model and Notation?. Our contribution is twofold: (1) from a theoretical standpoint we identified a set of structural and behavioural patterns that enable us to infer the corresponding REA value chain; (2) from a pragmatic perspective, our approach can be used to derive useful knowledge about the business process and serve as a starting point for business analysis.