Dynamic Supply Response and Welfare Effects of Technological Change on Perennial Crops: The Case of Cocoa in Malaysia

Modern biotechnology will generate crops with higher yields and enhanced resistance to pests and diseases. In the case of perennial crops, the age composition of the present stand, the farmers' willingness to invest, and the yield profiles of old and new trees determine the speed of adoption of the new technology and the timing of the effects on supply and demand conditions. We adapt conventional welfare measures to account for these factors in the Assessment of research induced supply shifts. The application to cocoa in Malaysia shows that consumers and adopting producers gain and non-adopters lose. Overall, 72% of the welfare gains go to the consumers.     

Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils

This study evaluates the potential impacts of the Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS) project in two countries of Africa: Kenya and South Africa. The IMAS varieties offer significant yield advantages for regions where low or no fertilizer is used. The analysis uses spatial production data and household data to account for the level of fertilizer use in different agroecological zones of the country as well as different types of maize producing households. Results suggest that IMAS will deliver a total of US$586 million in gross benefits with US$136 million and US$100 million of benefits to producers in Kenya and South Africa, respectively, and an additional US$112 million to consumers in Kenya and US$238 million to consumers in South Africa. These benefits could help more than 1 million people escape poverty in the two countries by 2025. Household level results suggest that small households in areas with relatively low levels of fertilizer use stand to gain significant benefits.     

Market Analysis,Technical Change and Income Distribution in Semi-Subsistence Agriculture: the Case of Bangladesh

For the first time, the model developed by Hayami and Herdt is applied to determine gains from modern varieties of rice in Bangladesh and the distribution of these gains between consumers and producers. The results suggest that consumers' surplus is much greater than it would have been had the high yielding crop varieties (HYVs) not been introduced. By keeping the real price lower than it would have been otherwise, the modern varieties have tended to be income equalizing for urban consumers. The Hayami-Herdt partial model even suggests that, given the relatively inelastic demand for rice in Bangladesh, the real cash income of producers has risen slightly as a result of these new technologies. In reality, however, the impact of these changes on incomes of farmers and the distribution of income between those involved in production is more complex. It is suggested that if a less partial view is taken and if account is taken of lower cost of obtaining home-consumed produce, the increase in income may be greater. In any event, there are dangers in using such a partial model to predict the developmental consequences of technological changes affecting a staple crop, and attention needs also to be given to the possibility that the supply curve may not have the simple form and pivot in the way supposed by Hayami and Herdt. While the Hayami-Herdt model is simple to apply, it is best used as a first approximation or starting point rather than a final solution. It ignores a number of criteria that could be important in assessing new agricultural technologies, such as their impact on the variability of benefits to producers and consumers and their consequences for sustainability of production. Furthermore, the Hayami-Herdt model does not deal specifically with changes in factor shares in farm production. Nor does it consider the impact on income distribution of the ownership and control of critical input like irrigation and imperfection in the rural credit market. It is pointed out in our paper that the adoption of HYVs has been associated with important variations in factor shares in Bangladeshi rice production. Analysis of available farm level data indicates that the relative share of labour has fallen, suggesting an uneven distribution of gains from technological changes between the owners of non-labour resources and those of labour resources. However, the absolute share of labour has increased, and it seems that rural employment has risen as result of the new technologies.     

Efficiency and Technical Change in the Philippine Rice Sector: A Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Analysis

Regional differences in total factor productivity, efficiency, and technological change in the Philippine rice sector are examined for the post-Green Revolution era. Malmquist productivity indices were constructed for 1971–90 and were decomposed into efficiency and technological change. The average annual Malmquist productivity growth was only slightly positive. Productivity growth was negative during the early 1970s, and was followed by a period of positive growth. Growth was negative again in the late 1980s. The period of positive growth coincided with the introduction of new rice varieties while the declines are likely to have been caused by intensification of rice production in lowland farming systems. Certain regions such as Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Southern and Northern Mindanao had higher rates of technological change than others. This may be due to higher investments in infrastructure and education, increased adoption of tractors, and a better agroclimatic environment.     

关于农民对农业技术服务需求的调查与分析

通过对我国玉米5个主产省14个市、县1220户农户的问卷调查表明，当前农户获取农业技术的主要渠道是农技人员田间指导(农户选择率占72．37％)、新闻媒体(占70．87％)和邻里效应(占56．86％)。不同地区间、技术来源渠道间农户选择率存在极显著差异。农户对农技人员下乡传授技术有强烈需求，90％以上的农户认同农技人员结合生产服务经营生产资料。农业技术人员深入生产第一线进行技术指导，培育科技示范户，以示范户带动广大农民的农技推广新模式和技物结合的推广方式是加速农业技术推广的有效途径。     

南京市建设用地理性目标计量研究

研究目的：把握经济社会发展与建设用地的变化规律,界定建设用地理性目标,破解建设用地指标分配难题。研究方法：比较分析法,函数模拟法,模型计量法和多方案比较法。研究结果：2010年和2020年南京市建设用地理性目标分别为1.69×105 hm2和1.94×105 hm2,2006 — 2010年和2011 — 2020年间南京市新增建设用地至少要保持在2.41×104 hm2和3.02×104 hm2规模上。研究结论：（1）未来一段时间内中国经济发展对建设用地需求仍处于上升阶段;（2）实证分析结果验证了建设用地利用效率区域差异明显的理论预期。     

1978-1997年金寨县农户生产力发展与消除贫困问题研究--前沿生产函数分析方法

本文采用前沿生产函数方法 ,利用安徽省金寨县 93个样本农户 1 978-1 997年资料 ,计量了样本农户的技术进步、技术效率、纯效率和规模经济效率、制度变迁的贡献等生产力发展指标 ,表明森林资源丰富地区可以通过生产力发展达到消除贫困的目标。制度变迁和技术效率是影响消除贫困的主要生产力因素 ,因此为了消除贫困进行的制度变迁要稳定且预期性强 ,积极提高技术效率、促进技术进步 ,在现阶段尤其要促进技术进步。     

War Legacies,Welfare and Livelihoods in Rural Areas: The Case of Kosovo

This article examines the effects of war on livelihood choices and welfare outcomes of rural households in Kosovo using the 2000 Kosovo Living Standards Measurement Survey. We analyse the extent of the legacy of war on livelihood activities and welfare. We first identify livelihood portfolio clusters of households pursuing similar combinations of activities. These clusters are comparable to those described in more qualitative studies in the immediate post‐conflict period. We then examine the determinants of livelihood portfolio choice and the consequences of these for welfare outcomes. Our results provide evidence of a relationship between a household’s experience of war and livelihood choice. We also identify significant selection effects on welfare for three out of four livelihood clusters, highlighting the fact that selecting into a specific livelihood portfolio changes welfare relative to expected levels. Our results show that war not only affects livelihood choices but also changes the returns to these activities.     

The Technical Efficiency Impact of Farm Credit Programmes: A Case Study of Northern Germany

We analyse the technical efficiency of dairy farms in Schleswig‐Holstein that took part in the European Farm Credit Programme over the period 1987 to 1994. One goal of this programme is to increase the productivity of farms. We test whether participants show higher technical efficiency. We utilise a stochastic frontier model that allows for heteroscedasticity and estimation of determinants of technical inefficiency. Statistical tests indicate dominance of this model over alternative specifications. On average, we observe a high level of technical efficiency between 1987–94, but participation in the programme has rather led to a slight decrease. Thus, the programme seems to have failed to increase the competitiveness of farms.     

Consumer Welfare and the Loss Induced by Withholding Information: The Case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.     

Stochastic Biases in Technical Change in U.S. Agriculture: A Bootstrap Approach

Having argued that the modeling of technical change as a smooth deterministic function of time is likely to misrepresent the true nature of technical change, this paper reexamines biased technical change in U.S. agriculture using a system of share equations with unobserved components errors, with technology treated as a stochastic unobserved variable. Employing data to represent the aggregate output and input of the U.S. agricultural sector over the period 1947–94, significant factor biases were found that appear to be linearly independent and do not appear to be smooth and deterministic. Technical change in U.S. agriculture appears to have been biased toward saving expenditure on labor at the expense of expenditure on intermediate inputs, with some small saving on the expenditure on capital inputs over the entire period 1947‐94. The paper also employs a bootstrapping approach in order to obtain finite sample tests with approximately the correct size under less stringent assumptions about the data generating process than assumed by maximum likelihood (ML) based approaches. Using these finite sample values significantly alters the conclusions reached regarding the nature of technical change. Après avoir démontré que la modélisation du changement technique par une fonction lissée déterministe du temps peut ne pas représenter correctement sa vraie nature, cet papier re‐examine le biais du changement technique dans l'agriculture américaine à partir d'un systè d'équations de parts avec des erreurs non observées et une technologie traitée comme une variable stochastique non observée. A partir de données représentant la production et les intrants agrégés dans le secteur agricole américain sur la période 1947–1994, nous constatons que les biais significatifs sont indépendants linéairement et qui ne sont pas des fonctions déterministes lissées du temps. Le changement technique dans l'agriculture américaine est biaisé en faveur des réductions de dépenses de travail aux dépends des dépenses sur les intrants intermédiaires et montre quelques économies sur les dépenses de capital sur la période 1947‐1994. L'emploi des techniques de bootstrapping permet d'obtenir des tests sur échantillons finis avec des hypothèses moins exigeantes que celles imposées par les approches de maximum de vraisemblance. Les conclusions obtenues à partir de ces tests sont significativement différentes que celles obtenues par les méthodes traditionnelles concernant le changement technique.     

农村专业技术协会的农业科技推广机制 --对河北省国欣农研会的案例分析

本文在实地调查的基础上,探讨了农村专业技术协会（简称农技协）的农业科技推广机制,认为研究与推广相联系、农民对农民的水平技术传播策略相结合是农村专业技术协会特有的农业技术推广机制。农技协的技术推广得到了棉农的认可。同时,文章还分析了目前农技协推广机制中存在的主要问题并提出了进一步完善的建议。     

A Comparative Static Analysis of Welfare Impacts of Supply-Restricting Marketing Boards: A Comnent

Van Kooten and Spriggs (VKS) make a useful contribution to our understanding of the basic theory of the firm as applied to quota restrictions on output, at least as far as their short-run analysis is concerned. However, it is the long-run analysis which is more relevant for judging the welfare implications of the policy, and it is here that the VKS analysis is open to question. This comment puts forth an alternative view. In so doing it also draws attention to some of the more important policy implications of the analysis.     

CAP Reforms in the 1990s and their Price and Welfare Implications: The Case of Wheat

We use a nonlinear commodity market model to assess, theoretically and empirically, the impacts of recent reforms of the CAP on prices and economic welfare in the EU. The empirical analysis is based on an aggregate structural econometric model of the EU wheat economy and its links to the rest of the world. Instability issues are also investigated. Impacts of CAP reforms on the variance of domestic and world prices are analysed and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate uncertainty in the model's welfare computations. Recent reforms led to a net welfare gain within the EU during the period 1993–2000. Additional budgetary costs are less than the welfare gains of consumers and producers. Producers gained as lower price support was overcompensated by additional direct payments.     

The Benefits of Farm Animal Welfare Legislation: The Case of the EU Broiler Directive and Truthful Reporting

The EU Broiler Directive came into force in the UK in June 2010 with the aim of setting new minimum standards, monitoring broiler welfare and addressing any welfare problems. A survey questionnaire was used to elicit information from a stratified sample of citizens in England and Wales regarding their willingness to pay for the provisions of the Directive, as an estimate of the consumer surplus associated with the legislation. We also explore the usefulness of Prelec's ( 2004 ) Bayesian Truth Serum (BTS) in promoting respondents’ truthful reporting. A median willingness to pay of £21.50 per household per year (corrected for sample bias and possible ‘yea saying’) was estimated from 665 responses. This provides an estimated benefit of the legislation to citizens of over £503 million per year, equivalent to 5.3% of current consumer expenditure on chicken. This compares to an estimated £22 million per year cost of producers’ compliance and government enforcement associated with the legislation. No statistically significant differences in responses between respondents that did and did not have a BTS incentive to answer questions truthfully were found, which might reflect apparently truthful answers in this case, an insufficiently strong financial incentive or a weakened effect due to an element of disbelief in the BTS amongst the sample. The analysis suggests that the benefits of the Broiler Directive to citizens greatly outweigh the additional costs to producers, making a case for the legislation to be retained.