Perspectives on Australian Retirement Incomes

With important developments over the past two decades in Australian retirement income policy, projected future outcomes—for the public purse, for the national economy and for the future retired—have received considerable attention. This focus on the future should not, however, cause us to lose sight of the present. While the major changes in retirement income policy outcomes will not occur for some decades, the picture for current and recent cohorts of retired people is not static. This article begins with an account of the important policy developments since the 1980s in the Australian retirement income arena—the Australian retirement income system still differs radically from that in most other countries, in relying heavily on a means‐tested income maintenance system, rather than on social insurance. The outcomes for current and recent cohorts of retired people are then examined from two perspectives. The first perspective is an examination of the incomes of the aged in the mid 1990s and of trends over the 1980s and 1990s—including consideration of changes in the level, composition and distribution of aged incomes. The second perspective is an international comparison of the incomes of the aged.     

Australian Government Policy on Retirement Incomes*

Australia has evolved an unusual dual system of retirement incomes support. There is a means-tested flat rate age pension and a system of occupational superannuation receiving considerable tax concessions. The current system gives rise to four major problems. These are enumerated and possible options for reform discussed.     

Choices and Constraints over Retirement Income Streams: Comparing Rules and Regulations*

The new Simplified Superannuation regulations for Australian superannuation provide tax concessions to retirement income streams which comply with legislated minimum drawdown rules. We evaluate these new drawdown rules against four alternatives, including three formula‐based ‘rules of thumb’ used by financial planners. We find that the new regulations are a substantial improvement on the previous rules for allocated pensions and, when compared with the formula‐based rules, are a good compromise in terms of simplicity, adequacy and risk. We also find that welfare is lower for most individuals who follow the Simplified Superannuation rules compared with welfare under an optimal path or a simple fixed percentage drawdown rule, but that outcomes could be improved through a further simplification of the new rules.     

Policy Effects in Hyperbolic vs. Exponential Models of Consumption and Retirement

This paper constructs a structural retirement model with hyperbolic preferences and uses it to estimate the effect of several potential Social Security policy changes. Estimated effects of policies are compared using two models, one with hyperbolic preferences and one with standard exponential preferences. Sophisticated hyperbolic discounters may accumulate substantial amounts of wealth for retirement. We find it is frequently difficult to distinguish empirically between models with the two types of preferences on the basis of asset accumulation paths or consumption paths around the period of retirement. Simulations suggest that, despite the much higher initial time preference rate, individuals with hyperbolic preferences may actually value a real annuity more than individuals with exponential preferences who have accumulated roughly equal amounts of assets. This appears to be especially true for individuals with relatively high time preference rates or who have low assets for whatever reason. This affects the tradeoff between current benefits and future benefits on which many of the retirement incentives of the Social Security system rest.Simulations involving increasing the early entitlement age and increasing the delayed retirement credit do not show a great deal of difference whether exponential or hyperbolic preferences are used, but simulations for eliminating the earnings test show a non-trivially greater effect when exponential preferences are used.     

An Analysis of the General Practice Access Scheme on GP Incomes, Bulk Billing and Consumer Copayments

In response to falling rates of bulk billing, in April 2003 the Australian Government proposed changes to the way that general practitioners (GPs) are reimbursed. It claimed that the General Practice Access Scheme (GPAS) would benefit all Australians by providing more affordable access to GP services and improved access to free GP consultations for concession cardholders. This article examines the likely impacts of the GPAS, focusing on the proposed changes to bulk billing and payments to GPs. It examines the current spatial distribution of bulk billing and discusses how the package changes the incentives for GPs to charge patients and likely impacts on GP income, patient copayments and bulk billing rates.     

不同来源收入对我国农村居民消费影响的区域差异分析

采用1995—2009年的面板数据,对我国东、中、西三大地区农村居民不同来源收入对其消费影响的区域差异进行了实证分析。结果表明:工资性收入和家庭经营性收入仍是影响我国农村居民消费的主要收入;财产性收入和转移性收入的影响不显著;三大地区农村居民的各种来源收入的边际消费倾向不同。最后提出,在提高农村居民收入水平的同时,应针对各地区不同来源收入的边际消费倾向的差异,制定能体现出区域差异性的农村居民消费政策。     

Household Income Inequality and Income Mobility: Implications Towards Equalizing Longer-Term Incomes in India

This paper addresses three important questions. First, what are the trends, levels and sources of income inequality in India? Second, how have been the patterns of income mobility? And finally, exploring the relationship between income mobility and income inequality in the context of India. Results, based on recent India Human Development Survey (IHDS) longitudinal data, advocate that not only is income inequality very high, nonetheless, it has increased – mainly attributable to different income sources – in India. The paper also focused on whether or not this income mobility equalizes longer-term incomes. Results suggest income mobility has resulted in-albeit not robust- equalizing longer-term incomes. Thus, based on imperative findings, the paper suggests, the nature of longer-term well-being is crucial to designing policy interventions to effectively tackle inequality and in this context, economic mobility can be seen as an avenue to long-term equality.     

The Separation of Spending from Taxation: Implications for Collective Choices

Our fiscal process divorces payment from use. Whilethis divorce has led many analysts of government to separatediscussion of public expenditures from their funding, or usefrom payment, we argue that this approach does not provide auseful framework for understanding our public choices. We arguethat it is the divorce of payment from use that underlies ourfiscal process and, rather than simply dismiss out of handthe study of our fiscal process, it should be an integral partof our study of government. Our framework for describing fiscalinstitutions indicates how our fiscal process invites rent-seekingbecause it allows beneficiaries of programs to avoid paymentfor those programs. We conclude by examining how various changesin the fiscal process may influence our public choices.     

The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality

Abstract. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper analyzes the dynamics of equivalent income in East and West Germany in the years following reunification. Special emphasis is given to the separation of permanent and transitory components, the persistence of transitory shocks and their implications for the persistence of poverty and inequality. The results suggest that in West Germany, between 52 and 69 per cent of cross-sectional income inequality was permanent, and that poor individuals stayed in poverty for two years on average. In East Germany, the share of the permanent component in overall income inequality rose continuously from 20 per cent in 1990 to 72 per cent in 1998, reaching a level near the one that prevailed in West Germany during the same period. The rising importance of time-invariant components in East German incomes was also reflected in expected poverty durations which slightly increased from 1.47 years in 1990 to 1.67 years in 1998.     

Towards Sustainable Consumption: Economics and Ethical Concerns for the Environment in Consumer Choices

The article examines individual action informed by ethical concerns for the environment as a strategy for moving toward more sustainable consumption. The article first employs a model of rational choice to analyze independent consumer choices among the usually assumed self- and welfare-centered consumers and then expands the model to analyze the implications of other than self- and welfare-centered motivations for consumer choice. The article next analyzes interdependent consumer choices informed by self- and welfare-centered values with the help of a simple game-theoretic model and then moves on to examine the implications of nonutilitarian environmental concerns for interdependent consumer choice in the same game-theoretic framework. The article concludes that although a strategy based on individual action may have limited promise when environmental concerns are widely shared, the case for collective action remains strong because of both efficiency and equity reasons.     

New Evidence on Gay and Lesbian Household Incomes

Using independent data from the Centers for Disease Control, the author tests a key assumption of previous research on gay and lesbian incomes: that same-sex unmarried partner households are, indeed, gay or lesbian. The author shows that this independent data suffers from less severe underreporting of same-sex unmarried partner households than the 1990 Decennial Census. Furthermore, individual level information on sexual behavior and family planning is used to show that these households exhibit sexual behavior that is systematically different from married and different-sex couples and that is consistent with a large body of public health and HIV literature on gay men and lesbians. Finally, the author replicates, confirms, and extends previously published Census-based results on the household income penalty faced by gay male couples, showing that these results are not an artifact of deficient data. He finds similar results for lesbian couples. (JEL J1 , J3 )     

中国的最优消费率及其政策含义

关于中国的最优消费率,长期以来都存在争议。然而,如何从经济学基本理论出发计算最优消费率的问题一直没有解决。本文从分析Phelps的黄金律法则入手,引入关于经济动态效率的新判据,并证明了新判据与黄金律法则的一致性和相互关系。在此基础上给出了最优消费率的求解方法,并利用中国的统计数据,计算出中国的最优消费率。最后,结合中国经济增长的特点及内外部环境,论述了最优消费率的政策含义。     

生育政策调整、退休年龄延迟与城镇职工基本养老保险最优缴费率

文章基于“十三五”规划建议提出适当降低社会保险费率的现实背景,从社会福利最大化视角,运用一般均衡模型对五种生育情景下不同退休年龄的城镇职工基本养老保险最优社会统筹缴费率进行测算,并分析降低社会统筹缴费率的经济效应。研究表明：（1）最优社会统筹缴费率随退休年龄的延长而下降,随人口增长率的上升而提高。0％－100％符合全面二孩政策规定的妇女生育二孩,使退休年龄为60岁时的最优社会统筹缴费率降到191．8％－196．3％,使退休年龄为65岁时的最优缴费率降到107．7％－116．4％。（2）除了受生育政策和退休年龄影响外,最优社会统筹缴费率对物质资本产出弹性、个人主观效用贴现因子和社会贴现因子的敏感性也较强。（3）降低社会统筹缴费率具有积极的经济效应,不仅能促进经济增长和增进社会福利,而且有助于完善我国多层次养老保险体系。因此,文章为降低城镇职工基本养老保险社会统筹缴费率的改革提供了依据。     

居家养老型住宅改造与设计研究

完善养老保障模式与改善老年人生活质量，是应对我国人口老龄化快速发展的一项战略目标。老年人居家养老对居住条件以及居家养老型住宅有一定的要求，如地面的平坦型和防滑性，房屋的合理布局等。同时，老年人对住宅的位置及社区服务体系建设等需求，则由于收入的不同存在着较大的差异。     

略论农民增收的障碍及对策——以河南为例

全面建设小康社会的重点、难点、潜力在农村,而关键在于增加农民收入。当前农民因结构不合理、非农经济发展缓慢、农民负担重、农业投入不足、农民素质不高、政府服务不到位等诸多因素影响,农民收入存在多元化、不均衡、不稳定等问题,农民增收困难。探讨阻碍农民增收的原因并提出实现农民增收的对策。     

面向未来的消费理论及其对刺激内需政策选择的启示

面向未来的消费理论对我们启动内需的政策选择方面有以下启示：１．在刺激居民消费需求方面重视制度建设,以改善人们对未来的预期;２．应把激发投资热情（主要是企业投资）作为启动内需的重点。     

The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption

China's rapid economic growth has generated a surge in energy demand that is reallocating global fuel balances. We employ a global energy computable general‐equilibrium model to analyze alternative scenarios for economic growth, Chinese currency appreciation, and oil price shocks, with a special focus on China energy markets. Imports from the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Sub‐Saharan Africa are found to comprise a growing share of China's energy. Imports to China grow from 12% of world energy imports in 2010 to 17% by 2050 when over 80% of China's oil demand will be imported.     

重新理解各种收入及其源泉——辨析"三位一体"公式的二重性

马克思以前的许多经济学家,例如斯密和萨伊,由于没有科学区分剩余价值的分配与剩余价值的生产之间的联系与区别,因而都无意或有意地混淆了收入分配与收入源泉两者之间的联系区别,"三位一体"公式就是这种混淆的理论表现形式.本文为了极其清晰地揭示出分配与生产关系之间的区别,力求全面、深刻地辨析"三位一体"公式的虚伪性和合理性,以便从整体上再现资本作为商品化经济或市场经济主体的复杂二重性质.在这里,唯物辩证的二重分析方法又成为解剖资本分配制度乃至运营制度、生产制度二重性的锐利武器.     

新加坡立体绿化管控模式及启示

立体绿化是实现城市集约化用地,提升城市生态环 境和景观风貌的有效途径,而由政府主导的管控手段则是推动 其建设、保证其质量和提升其社会认可度的关键力量。在综合 分析新加坡立体绿化管控模式下的政策体系和运作机制的基 础上,概括其立体绿化管控特点并提出对中国立体绿化管控优 化的4点启示,包括完善法制,建管有序;科学评估,精准定 位;分级规划,因地制宜;多方协作,共建共享。