Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Dynamic panel cointegration approaches to the estimation of money demand functions

This paper investigates properties of the money demand functions of Group of Six (G6) member countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, U.K., and U.S.) using the estimation and inference techniques of panel cointegration. Empirical analyses are conducted by estimating money demand equations of G6 countries individually and as a whole, allowing heterogeneity in individual specific fixed effects across countries through dynamic, nonstationary panel estimation techniques. By using recently developed panel cointegration techniques, the paper contributes to the literature of money demand studies by improving the power performance of the relevant estimation and inference procedures. It reports fully modified OLS (FMOLS) estimation results of the money demand model for different data frequencies, to find varying signs and magnitudes of real income, interest rates and inflation elasticities of money demand for G6 nations.     

Technology Transfer from Acquisition FDI and the Absorptive Capacity of Domestic Firms: An Empirical Investigation

This paper seeks to establish the role of absorptive capacity in technology transfer from acquisition FDI in U.K. manufacturing. It finds that the rate of productivity change following a foreign take-over is higher the higher the pre-acquisition productivity level of the acquired firm, indicating the importance of absorptive capacity. However, beyond some critical level of initial productivity, the rate of technology transfer due to foreign acquisition starts to decline. It seems that U.K. acquisition targets that had been operating nearer the domestic technology frontier have less to gain from their association with foreign multinationals.     

外商直接投资经济实效与中国企业内向型国际化

从20世纪80年代后半期开始,中国外商投资逐渐进入高成长阶段尤其是自1993年起,中国实际利用外资连续数年在发展中国家居第一位,2002年中国超过美国成为全球吸引外资最多的国家。外资进入中国一方面促进中国经济快速发展,同时也是国内企业走向内向型国际化的过程。企业跨国投资并参与国际竞争,次发达国家的企业与发达国家企业进行国际竞争,并不一定总会处于劣势,尤其是在竞争性的市场上,外资企业不见得比内资企业更有竞争优势。     

Heterogeneity of FDI Export Spillovers and Its Policy Implications: The Experience of China

This paper explores the magnitude and heterogeneity of foreign direct investment (FDI) export spillovers in China. Using a Heckman sample selection model estimated over a rich firm‐level dataset in China's manufacturing sector from 2000 to 2003, we find that FDI exerts significant impacts on the exporting behavior of domestic firms, and such impacts are heterogeneous in that some firms receive positive impacts while others receive negative impacts. The heterogeneity of FDI spillovers has significant policy implications as it indicates that government policies need to be more specific and targeted in order for the benefits of FDI to be reaped.     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.     

The Role of the Efficiency Gap for Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from the UK Electronics and Engineering Sectors

This paper focuses on the role of the efficiency gap in determining whether or not domestic firms benefit from productivity spillovers from FDI. We use establishment level data for the period 1980–1992 for the UK. Given that there is substantial heterogeneity of productivity across sectors we focus on two manufacturing sectors in detail, namely, electronics and engineering. We allow for different effects of FDI on establishments located at different quantiles of the productivity distribution by using conditional quantile regression. Overall, while there is some heterogeneity in results across sectors and quantiles, our findings clearly suggest that the efficiency gap matters for productivity spillover benefits. We find evidence for a u-shaped relationship between productivity growth and FDI interacted with the efficiency gap. We also analyse in some detail the impact of changes in relative efficiency on establishments’ ability to benefit from spillovers.     

FDI and the Export Performance of Chinese Indigenous Firms: a Regional Approach

The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the export performance of Chinese indigenous firms. A panel data analysis is employed using data across 29 provinces over the 1985–99 period. Owing to the exceptionally uneven distribution of FDI, the analysis compares the impact of FDI on all provincial exports and exports of indigenous firms over the three macro-regions of China. While the findings of the empirical analysis should be viewed with caution, they do show that FDI has less influence on the export performance of indigenous firms than on all firms (foreign and indigenous). The findings imply that linkages between the foreign and domestic sectors need to be improved if FDI is to be a vehicle for improving the competitiveness of domestic firms. Alternatively, policies may have to be directed towards the indigenous firms themselves to enhance their export performance.     

美国出口倍增计划对广东外经贸的影响及对策

美国的对外经济政策发生变化将会引起其它国家相应政策一定程度的调整以及世界经济的变动。中国是美国第三大出口市场,广东省对美国贸易总额占全国对关贸易总额的30％左右,美国实施出口倍增计划对中国特别是对广东的外经贸发展必然产生影响,这种影响既有有利方面也有不利方面。广东的应对措施主要应包括：继续坚持实施互利共赢的开放战略;抓住机遇,建立与美国以及其他国家进出口企业的广泛联系;重构广东的自主创新战略;提高出口商品价格,缓解人民币汇率升值和出口成本增加的压力;发挥制造业优势,积极参与国际经济合作,提升国际竞争力;注重国际市场安全研究,加强市场多元化战略的实施,保护海外利益。     

ICT,offshoring, and the demand for part-time workers: The case of Japanese manufacturing

This paper examines the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) and offshoring on the skill demand in Japanese manufacturing. One of the contributions of this paper is that we focus explicitly on the demand for low-wage part-time workers, which we call low skilled workers. Estimating a system of variable factor demands for the period 1980–2011, we find that industries with higher ICT stock shifted demand from middle-low to middle-high and low skilled workers. Offshoring is associated with the increasing demand for high skilled workers but it has insignificant effects on the demand for middle-high, middle-low, and low skilled workers. The results together suggest that the increasing demand for low-wage part-time workers can be attributable to ICT in Japan.     

Forty Years Development of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increasingly become an important method for China to integrate into the world economy. This paper comprehensively reviews and analyzes policy development and the changing pattern of China's OFDI over the past 40 years. We divide the development into “restricted” (1978–1999), “relaxed” (2000–2016) and “regulated” (2017 onwards) stages. This paper also reviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries. Despite its generally positive effects, large‐scale and unbalanced OFDI activities have alarmed Chinese policymakers. Both developing and developed host countries have expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of some Chinese overseas enterprises. Therefore, greater supervision and adjustment from quantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China's OFDI.