中国纸制品消费趋势:城市化增长的效应分析和预测

基于对近期未来的人口—经济增长的预测,分析了城市化增长对未来纸制品消费的影响。用"自相关误差回归"的方法检验人口和城市化增长的不同发展路径对于纸制品消费的影响。中国的城市化过程对纸制品消费影响很大,更快的城市化进程,相应的影响会更强烈。比较人口变量和经济变量,城市家庭经济因素相对更加明显。在近期的未来,随着纸制品消费的增加,其对环境污染的压力也会增大。     

Sustainable development of Shandong peninsula Peninsula urban agglomeration: a scenario analysis based on water shortage and water environment changes

China has experienced a rapid urbanization since late 1970s. The great increase of urban population has resulted in various environmental changes, of which urban water shortage and water environment problems have occurred in most cities, especially in the rapidly developing urban agglomerations in the eastern coastal region. This research, taking Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration (SPUA) as a case study area, analyzes the urbanization expansion in the last decades, discusses the water shortage and water environment changes following the rapid economic development and urbanization such as groundwater sinking in the urban and plain area, sea water and salt-water intrusion in the coastal cities, water pollution overspreading and "water ecosystem degradation, and puts forwards some strategies for sustainability in populous regions with severe water shortage. Some countermeasures for sustainable development of SPUA are put forward, such as modern water resources inter-city networks to regulate water resource between cities, adjusting urbanization policy and urban scale planning to promote the development of small towns and medium sized cities, optimizing urban industry structure by restricting high water consumption enterprises and stimulating the growth of tertiary industry, improving water use efficient to reduce freshwater consumption and wastewater discharge, introducing economic means to water pricing and water management system. and restoring ecological conditions to strengthen the natural water-making capacity.     

Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

ABSTRACT

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.     

城市化与城市资源消耗间关系的实证研究——以北京市为例

建立基于误差修正模型的Granger因果关系模型,检验分析了北京的城市化与城市资源消耗之间的因果关系。结果显示:在短期内,北京的城市化与城市资源消耗互为Granger因果关系;在长期内,仅存在从城市化到城市资源消耗的单向Granger因果关系,这表明当前及今后很长一段时间内北京城市化仍较多依赖资源消耗。最后指出建立有助于节约资源的城市化推进模式是实现北京市可持续发展的根本路径选择。     

城市创新职能与创新城市空间体系

全球化与知识经济的迅速发展,使城市的职能正在发生革命性的变化.城市的职能已由工业城市的生产、制造职能、服务城市的管理与协调职能向创新、创意职能转化,城市化是人口与景观的变化过程,也是城市创新功能的创造过程,城市创新职能表现出与其他职能不同的特征.城市创新职能可从全球、城市之间、城市内部多个尺度进行研究,对探讨建立全球及我国的城市空间创新体系,以及完善城市规划都具有重要意义.     

城镇化、城乡消费比例和结构对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响*

本文利用投入-产出分析法计算了我国居民消费间接CO2排放量,并应用结构分解分析（SDA）方法分析了城镇化、城乡消费比例、消费结构等因素对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响。研究结果发现：（1）城镇化的扩张和消费结构的升级是增加我国居民消费间接CO2排放的重要因素,尤其是食品、居住和交通通讯是导致居民消费间接CO2排放的主要部门;（2）城乡消费比例和排放强度对居民消费间接CO2排放具有明显的抑制作用;（3）人均消费的提高对居民消费间接CO2排放增长贡献最大。最后,本文基于实证结果提出了减少我国居民消费间接CO2排放的政策建议。     

Analysis on the disparity in economic growth and consumption between urban sector and rural sector of China: 1978–2008

This paper designs a theoretical model of excess per-capita income growth and brings forward such indices as excess per-capita income, per-capita base consumption and decreasing factor as well as the corresponding measurement methods. It studies from a brand new aspect the disparity between the economic growth in urban sector and rural sector of China in the past 30 years after the reform and opening-up, together with the disparity between the effects of such growth on consumption. The research results show that: At present the problem of the duality of urban and rural sector of China is still serious; the impaired amount of economic growth in urban sector is larger than that in rural sector while the impairing strength in rural sector is higher than that in urban sector; and it is vital to increase the excess per-capita investment in rural sector in order to effectively strengthen consumption related policies. Therefore, promoting urbanization but reasonably controlling the urbanization progress while strengthening the infrastructure construction in rural areas would be the efficient approach to reduce the impairing strength over the economic growth, to build up consumption market, to improve the duality of economy and to realize sustainable development.     

江苏省城市化进程与现状特征研究

本文从城市化的概念、表现和度量指标出发,分析了现行城镇人口统计中存在的问题,指出城镇人口应包括的人口范围。并把江苏城市化发展过程分为六个阶段,对发展的现状特征进行了分析研究。     

城市紧凑度影响能源消耗的理论机制及实证分析

伴随着中国城市化进程,能源消耗量不断增加,不同的城市空间结构导致能源效率存在差异。文章在阐述城市紧凑度影响能源消耗理论机制的基础上,利用UITP数据库中87个城市的截面数据与我国286个地级以上城市的面板数据开展计量分析,结果显示:城市紧凑度越高人均能源消费量越低,经济发展是造成能源消耗不断增加的重要因素。结论对于建设紧凑城市,降低能源消耗具有启示意义。     

基于可持续发展的城市综合评价体系实证研究--以西安市为例

随着中国经济的快速发展,城市化步伐呈现加快的趋势,但城市规模的盲目扩大产生了高昂的生态成本.针对目前中国城市的发展现状,本文提出城市可持续发展模式,构建了包含经济、社会、人口、资源和环境的城市可持续发展综合评价指标体系.并以西安市为案例,系统测度了西安市的可持续发展能力.实证结果表明,西安市呈弱可持续发展状态,尤其是人口、环境和资源体系问题严峻.对城市可持续发展的定量评估将为政府监测城市的可持续发展、制定城市发展规划提供理论依据,这对我国目前的城市化发展具有一定的指导意义.     

Do droughts have long-term effects on water consumption? Evidence from the urban area of Barcelona

This article examines the long-term effects of droughts on water consumption using data of municipalities of the urban area of Barcelona. Two important characteristics of the sample of municipalities are the relatively low water consumption in the pre-drought period and the fact that indoor uses are clearly predominant. Controlling for prices, income and various socio-demographic factors, we find a reduction in water consumption not only during the drought episode but also in subsequent periods. These permanent reductions in water use may be explained by household behavioural changes, technological changes or structural water policy changes.     

市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发展的影响

探讨了改革开放以来中国的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径的变化与中国城市化发展之间的关系。市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径等行政因素对中国城市化水平有重要影响。当前,中国的城市化水平具有高估的现象,表现在城镇人口中农业人口的比重过高和城镇就业人口中从事第一产业的人口比重较高。未来中国城市化的发展在提高城市化水平的同时,更重要的是需要提高城镇人口中非农业人口的比重,改善城镇人口的就业结构,同时制定客观、合理的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径,使中国的城市化水平真正反映中国城市化的实际发展状况。     

电子商务能缩小城乡居民消费差距吗

从理论和实证两方面探究电子商务对平衡城乡居民消费差距的作用及作用途径。充分考虑内生性的稳健研究结果显示:2014—2018年中国电子商务的发展并没有缩小城乡居民消费差距,反而加剧了城乡居民消费差距;电子商务通过城乡居民不同门类商品和服务的消费差距直接影响城乡居民消费差距,通过城乡居民收入差距间接影响城乡居民消费差距。政府仍需继续支持电子商务进农村,完善农村电商基础设施建设,改善电商发展环境,并进一步提高农民收入。     

快速城镇化对山东省粮食生产的挑战

随着经济的快速发展,中国城镇化水平不断提高。在快速城镇化发展过程中,大量耕地资源被城市建设占用,大批农村劳动力进入城市,农业水资源紧张态势日趋严峻,农业产业结构调整使粮食作物种植面积不断减少,这些都对粮食生产和粮食安全产生了不利影响。因此,要协调好城镇化发展和粮食生产的关系,合理规划城镇用地,以保障粮食生产及安全。     

黄河流域水资源生态系统服务价值时空变化及驱动分析——以关中平原城市群为例

黄河流域城市群的发展面临着水资源刚性约束强、跨域治理难度大、承载力不足等问题的严峻挑战。采用环境经济核算方法与水足迹评估了关中平原城市群水资源生态系统服务价值，在描述时空演变特征的基础上揭示了社会经济因素对价值变化的驱动作用。结果表明，生态系统服务价值平稳增长，呈现东南部高于西北部的区域差异特点。价值变化受农业总产值与第二产业生产总值的影响较大，城镇化率、旅游人数等也是主要影响因素。建议把生态系统服务价值纳入到城市水治理中，通过调整城市产业结构与人口密度、推进跨域协同等措施加快绿色转型。本文探索性地编制城市群水资源生态系统账户并进行了核算，为突出生态服务功能在水资源保护与利用提供了科学依据。     

城镇化中能源消费与二氧化碳排放研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

文章扩展了STIRPAT模型,使用1995-2011年中国30个省级面板数据,研究中国城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗的需求变化与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明:在全国层面上,城镇化增加了对能源消费的刚性需求且对二氧化碳排放具有显著的正向影响。同时,城镇化对二氧化碳排放量影响有明显的区域差异:在东部地区,城镇化水平的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量,但在中西部地区,城镇化水平的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论,文章探讨了未来中国城镇发展的相关对策:适当控制土地城镇化发展速度,积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式,培养市民良好的低碳生活方式,优化与调整地区产业结构与能源消费结构。     

健康城市化与农地制度改革

我国人口众多,耕地资源相对稀缺,目前又面临人口膨胀、工业化与城市化的挑战,如何正确处理土地与城市发展的关系.引导我国城市化健康持续发展,成为摆在我们面前的重要议题.分析了我国在城市化进程中出现的不合理现象,并指出问题根源在于农地制度的缺陷所导致的政府在土地市场的垄断.进一步探讨农地制度改革的途径,目的在于打破政府垄断局面,发挥市场在土地资源配置中的作用,保护失地农民的权益,为城市健康发展提供必要的、有利的条件.     

Quantitative study on the urban flesh water consumption since Chinese rapid urbanization

The development of urbanization has a close relationship with fresh water resources, especially in the rapid urbanization period. By analyzing the course of the urhanization development and the experience of international urbanization development, the paper confirms the starting time of the rapid urbanization. Based on the ecotogical theory; urban fresh water consumption is composed of three types： the direct, the indirect and the induced water consumption. And the paper constructs calculation model of the indirect and the induced water consumption. Using the related statistics data, the paper makes an empirical research on the changes of the amount and structure of water consumption. Then it discusses the correlation between the water consumption and the amount of urban population, and the result shows that the amount of the water consumption arid the urban population have a remarkable correlation with the exception of the amount of the indirect water consumption, and the curves fake on quadratic functian form. Last, from the urban fimction point of view; the paper anatomizes the cause of the urban water consumption changes.     

中国农民工消费市场解读——金字塔底层的财富

理解、把握并满足中国农民工消费市场的需求对于经济发展方式的转变、商业模式的创新、贫困人口的消除、城乡二元结构的缓解都具有重要意义。本文认为,农民工消费决定于"经济效应"和"身份效应"两种机制,前者主要影响他们的私人消费,后者则影响他们的集体消费或福利消费状况。依据2010年上海农民工的调查情况,笔者描述了该消费市场的人群特征、消费结构和消费种类,并总结出相应的消费特征。文章最后指出商业机构应该重视这些金字塔底层的消费者和规模巨大的财富。     

水资源承载力视野下的城市水资源安全分析——以成都市为例

城市化进程的加快带来了城市空前的繁荣,同时也给城市水资源安全带来了前所未有的压力。本文通过构建以水资源承载力为测度方法的水资源安全保障水平的优化模型,对成都市未来年份的适度入口容量加以预测分析,并在此基础上提出了确保缺水型城市水资源安全的相应措施。