PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

U.S. INCOME, SAVING, AND WEALTH, 1929—1969

The objective of this paper is to present income and expenditure accounts, accumulation accounts, and the asset side of the wealth accounts for the U.S. private national economy in current and constant prices. These accounts are integrated with the production and factor outlay accounts for the U.S. private domestic economy in current and constant prices given in our earlier papers. Taken together, these accounts constitute a complete accounting system in current and constant prices for the private sector of the U.S. economy.
Our complete accounting system incorporates a new concept of the standard of living, defined as the ratio of the quantity index of gross private national expenditures to the quantity index of gross private national consumer receipts. Our concept of the standard of living is similar but not identical to our concept of total factor productivity. Changes in the private standard of living reflect both changes in total factor productivity and changes in the proportion of the total product consumed in the public sector.     

CONCEPTUAL AMD STATISTICAL ISSUES IN DEVELOPING ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES-RECENT U.S. EXPERIENCE

The purpose of this paper is to describe the conceptual and statistical basis of the estimates of United States public and private spending for pollution abatement and control (PAC) prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The concepts and definitions were designed to ensure comparability with the national economic accounts since much of the analysis of the effects of environmental programs on the economy is conducted with the aid of the accounts. The work to date has been limited to pollution associated with harmful "foreign" substances and forms of energy discharged in the course of production, distribution and consumption. The conceptual base includes evaluation of benefits, but estimates completed thus far are limited to the cost of pollution abatement and control.
Definitions are given for pollution, pollution abatement, direct pollution abatement cost, indirect pollution abatement cost and indirect benefits. A framework for the estimation and presentation of PAC expenditures is developed and the estimate of U.S. PAC expenditures for 1972 and 1973 is presented. A brief chronological summary of the BEA project is also provided.     

A SIMPLIFIED INTEGRATED FORM OF SNA AND MPS*

At present two systems of measurement of national product are in practice, one as defined in the UN System of National Accounts (SNA) and the other termed the Material Product System (MPS) or National Balances for the Economy. In the present paper, an expanded system of accounts integrating the national balances within the framework of a simplified SNA has been suggested. The accounts suggested are mainly the two sets of (i) Supply, Disposition and Domestic Production of goods and services and Consumption Expenditure of Budget and Mixed Organisations and the Population, and (ii) Income and Outlay and Capital Formation Accounts. The system is convenient not only for arriving at estimates by either of the two approaches, but is readily manageable. This set of accounts can, without any effort, be put in the form of a matrix leading to its ultimate integration with either the UN System of National Accounts or a modified system of national balances. The system gives not only the integrated system of SNA and national balances, but also a coded list of transactors and transactions within the economy. This coded list can be used as the first set of information for the creation of the economic data bank for the Integrated Statistical Information System.     

KVARTS - a quarterly model of the Norwegian economy

This paper presents the main characteristics of the first version of a quarterly 12 sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy. The general purpose of the project is to obtain a framework for quantitative analysis of the short-term development of the economy. Quarterly national accounts data constitute a main data source, but short- term statistics outside the national accounting system also play a significant role in the model structure. The model's main structure and basic theoretical properties are presented, selected estimation results for single equations are reported and some experiences from simulation experiments performed on selected model blocks and by means of the complete model are given.     

Estimates of Capital Stock and Capital/Output Coefficients by Industries: Korea (1953–86)

This paper constructs a polynomial-benchmark model to estimate gross and net capital stocks by explicity estimating implicit retirement rates and depreciation rates. The model is applied to Korean data (1953–86) where such data as national wealth survey, national income accounts and industrial census are available. There alternative series of capital stock estimates are generated and compared with previous estimates. It is shown that the use of a pure perpetual-inventory model or a benchmark-year method alone may introduce a significant bias in the measurement of capital stocks for developing economies.     

USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR A SHORT-TERM ECONOMETRIC MODEL: 1954–1966

A quarterly macro-econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short-term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer-term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.
The model consists of fifty-three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non-linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.
Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.
Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated "Master Model," the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model-building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow-of-funds accounts.     

A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The key elements of a new architecture for the U.S. national accounts have been developed in a prototype system constructed by Dale W. Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld, Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The focus of the U.S. national accounts is shifting from economic stabilization policy toward enhancing the economy's growth potential. A second motivation for the new architecture is to integrate the different components of the decentralized U.S. statistical system and make them consistent.     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

SOME ESTIMATES OF TRADE FLOWS IN BANKING SERVICES

This paper presents some estimates of international trade in banking services. We use IMF data on assets and liabilities of both domestic banks and non-banks with foreign banks, and of foreigners with the domestic banking system to construct measures of the volume of transactions on which banking intermediation services are provided across national borders. We then use estimates of the spread between borrowing and lending rates for depositors and borrowers with the financial institutions involved to estimate the value of international flows of intermediation services. Estimates are presented for 1982–84 and 1991–93 for the U.S., the U.K., and Canada.     

Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends

We use a two-sector dynamic deterministic general equilibrium model that specifically accounts for trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the shadow economy for the 50 U.S. states from 1999 to 2019, following Solis-Garcia and Xie (2018, 2022). This paper improves on existing measures of the state-level shadow economy (such as the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) methodology by Wiseman (2013a)). In particular, this new measure is based on theoretical foundations, extends the previous measure to include the Great Recession, includes dollar value estimates of the shadow economy, and produces considerably more variation over time and across states. Furthermore, we explore determinants of this new shadow economy measure using a panel vector autoregressive model and find that, on average, states with higher levels of economic freedom, lower regulatory barriers, and larger real GDP have smaller shadow economies. States with bigger governments, on average, have larger shadow economies, and the effect of corruption on shadow economic activity is non-linear, with a positive initial and subsequent negative impact.     

Egypt's Growth Performance Under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment With New GDP Estimates, 1886–1945

The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money–based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypt's intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886–1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypt's growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles.     

Unanticipated monetary growth,output and the price level: U.K. 1946–1977

This paper develops and estimates using annual data from 1946–1977 a three-equation model of the U.K. economy, in which output is affected only by unanticipated monetary growth whereas the price level is influenced by both anticipated and unanticipated changes in money supply. Expectations of monetary growth are assumed to be Muth-rational. The model was estimated using efficient procedures, and tests of the over-identifying restrictions were generally favourable to model specification. Some features of the price equation are unsatisfactory and the results in this section must be considered tentative.     

The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

What are the fiscal consequences of high-skilled emigration for source countries? This paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high-skilled workers from India to the U.S. This wave of emigration from India to the U.S. is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime-age work force, the highly educated and high earners. In order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants, estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the Indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences. Conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to India of high-skilled emigration to the U.S. is one-half of 1% of gross national income (or 2.5% of total fiscal revenues). The sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail.     

The relationship between government accounts and national accounts, with special reference to the netherlands

National accounts are a macro-economic accounting system that is compiled on the basis of a globally harmonized accounting standard, that is SNA93/ESA95. To a large extent, the SNA93/ESA95 accounting principles are also suitable for government (micro-)accounting purposes, if only because the accounts drawn up according to this standard are comparable across (types of) units and over time. That facilitates performance monitoring and benchmarking. In addition, the ESA95 guidelines and procedures deal with innovative transactions and accounting, which increases the credibility of the accounts. Finally, accounts for government units are then directly comparable with the macroeconomic accounts, which facilitates the link between forecasts for the national economy and drawing up government budgets. This paper also describes the present conversion of government accounts to national accounts for the government sector in the Netherlands and the plans of the Dutch government to change from a cash-based to an accrual government accounting system.     

The marginal cost of public funds and tax reform in Africa

In this paper we propose estimates of the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) in 38 African countries. We develop a simple general equilibrium model that can handle taxes on five major tax classes, and can be calibrated with little more than national accounts data. A key feature of our model is the explicit recognition of the informal economy. Our base case estimate of the average MCF from marginal increases in all five tax instruments is 1.2. Focusing on the lowest cost tax instruments in each country, commonly the VAT but not always, the average MCF is 1.1. Finally extending the tax base to include sections of the informal economy by removing some tax exemptions offers the potential for a low MCF source of public funds, and a lowering of MCFs on other tax instruments.