Street Name Fluency and Housing Prices

This paper examines whether and how street name fluency affects housing prices using a rich sample of housing transactions in Sydney, Australia. We find street names with longer words are preferred, i.e., homes on street names with more letters are priced with a 0.6% premium. Homes with unique street names are sold 1.6% (or A$10,835) higher than those with more common names, implying disfluency and uniqueness preference. Moreover, homes with less fluent street names are valued more conditional on the street name is rare or the home is in the luxury price range. This is consistent with the consumption context effect in the psychology literature that in the context of special occasion high-end goods, lower fluency and grater uniqueness makes the products feel more desirable and valuable.

While we show disfluency preference on aggregate, we also find evidence of fluency preference by non-English speaking buyers and for new developments. Preferences for royal names or popular words proxied by Google Trends are also documented. Overall, our findings shed light on understanding how name fluency affects the investment decision of special occasion goods such as real estate.

     

The Impact of Property Condition Disclosure Laws on Housing Prices: Evidence from an Event Study Using Propensity Scores

We examine the impact of seller??s Property Condition Disclosure Laws on residential real estate values. A disclosure law may address the information asymmetry in housing transactions shifting risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers and raising housing prices as a result. We combine propensity score techniques from the treatment effects literature with a traditional event study approach. We assemble a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across 50 US States spanning 21?years from 1984 to 2004. The study finds that the average sales price of houses in a metropolitan area increases by an additional 3 to 4% over a 4?year period if the state adopts a Property Condition Disclosure Law, which is consistent with approximately a 19 basis point or 6.4% reduction in the risk premium associated with purchasing owner-occupied housing. When we compare the results from parametric and semi-parametric (propensity score) event analyses, we find that the semi-parametric analysis generates moderately larger estimated effects of the law on housing prices.     

The Co-op Discount

Cooperative and condominium housing differ in several ways that might be expected to influence their pricing. Most but not all of these differences argue for a higher valuation for condominiums. Hedonic equations estimated on a national sample indicate that the price differential on the average condo/co-op unit in 1987 was 12%. Condos maintain a price premium under a variety of specifications, although its magnitude depends on the bundle of attributes being priced.     

Winning megadeals: The dual role of acquirer advisors in loan-financed mergers and acquisitions

Acquirer advisors now often arrange syndicated loans financing merger and acquisition deals they advise on. This paper shows that such an advisor-lender dual role facilitates valuable big-ticket deals. There is a positive announcement effect for the acquirer which also shows no systematic post-deal underperformance—dispelling concerns about the advisor abetting managerial empire building. But advisor-led syndicated loans, despite being larger in size, have higher loan spreads than those led by non-advisors. Advisors apparently have an information advantage but rent extraction is unlikely. The higher charges are justifiable in view of the significantly lower post-deal creditworthiness of dual-role bidders. Advisor-lender's superior information about adverse changes in the credit risk is rationally priced into the dual-role interest rate premium.     

Efficiency and Incentives in Residential Brokerage

The literature on broker intermediation in residential real estate has shown positive pricing effects associated with the use of a broker and mixed results as far as the pricing effects of nonstandard commission structures. On the premise that real estate broker incentives emanate from two primary sources, factors that increase broker operating efficiency and negotiable features arising from the relationship between the listing broker and the seller, this study assesses the degree to which these incentives affect the marketing time, probability of sale, and selling price of single-family houses. Of particular interest, this study investigates efficiency and broker intermediation effects on residential property associated with a broker concentrating his listings into a service area. Empirical results show that properties within an individual broker??s GIS-determined service area are more likely to sell, sell faster, and sell with an associated price premium. These effects are more concentrated in the market for higher priced homes. Also, additional compensation favorably motivates the broker with higher-priced properties, but has no effect on the sale of lower-priced properties.     

Residential Mortgage Default: The Roles of House Price Volatility, Euphoria and the Borrower’s Put Option

House price volatility; lender and borrower perception of price trends, loan and property features; and the borrower’s put option are integrated in a model of residential mortgage default. These dimensions of the default problem have, to our knowledge, not previously been considered altogether within the same investigation framework. We rely on a sample of individual mortgage loans for 20 counties in Florida, over the period 2001 through 2008, third quarter, with housing price performance obtained from repeat sales analysis of individual transactions. The results from the analysis strongly confirm the significance of the borrower’s put as an operative factor in default. At the same time, the results provide convincing evidence that the experience in Florida is in part driven by lenders and purchasers exhibiting euphoric behavior such that in markets with higher price appreciation there is a willingness to accept recent prior performance as an indicator of future risk. This connection illustrates a familiar moral hazard in the housing market due to the limited information about future prices.     

Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions

This paper develops a utility indifference model for evaluating various prices associated with forward transactions in the housing market, based on the equivalent principle of expected wealth utility derived from the forward and spot real estate markets. Our model results show that forward transactions in the housing market are probably not due to house sellers?? and buyers?? heterogeneity, but to their demand for hedging against house price risk. When the imperfections of real estate markets and the risk preferences of market participants are taken into consideration, we are able to show that the idiosyncratic risk premium, which mainly depends on the participants?? risk preferences and the correlation between the traded asset and the real estate, is a remarkable determinant of house sellers?? and buyers?? forward reservation prices. In addition, we also find that the market clearing forward price usually will not converge toward the expected risk-neutral forward price. The sellers?? or buyers?? risk aversion degrees and market powers are also identified to play crucial roles in determining the clearing forward price.     

Selling price,financing premiums,and days on the market

Home buyers face the task of trading off selling price and the time required to sell a property. One factor that may affect this decision is the presence of financing premiums. The effects of financing premiums on the time a single-family home remains on the market is examined in this paper. The question is to what extent home sellers are willing to compromise on financing premiums and make concessions to buyers in order to sell their properties more quickly.The study uses a sample of single-family residential homes sold with assumption financing and new conventional financing. The sample covers segments of time when interest rates were relatively low and stable (1975–1976) and when rates were much higher on average and more volatile (1980).The results show that financing premiums were present in selling prices of assumption-financed home sales during the 1975–1976 period and that sellers were able to capture a premium and maintain the same average time on the market as properties with other types of financing. During a period of unfavorable market conditions, such as 1980, the results indicate that home sellers with assumption financing conceded or negotiated away any premium in order to significantly decrease the number of days their properties stayed on the market for sale.     

Managing specific accruals vs. structuring transactions: Evidence from banking industry

This study investigates earnings management through managing specific accruals vs. structuring transactions in the banking industry. This paper explores the circumstances under which banks manipulate loan loss provisions vs. circumstances that lead banks to structure loan sales and securitizations for the purpose of achieving earnings benchmarks. Empirical results show that banks manage earnings through loan loss provisions, before resorting to structuring transactions, to avoid small earnings decreases and or just meet or beat analysts' forecasts. The findings imply that structuring loan sales and securitizations is more likely to be used as a secondary instrument. In addition, I find that the earnings of banks with lower discretionary loan loss provisions and higher discretionary gains from loan sales and securitizations are priced more negatively, suggesting that investors impose incremental penalties on the joint use of loan loss provisions and gains from loan sales and securitization to meet or beat earnings benchmarks.     

Breakeven Determination of Loan Limits for Reverse Mortgages under Information Asymmetry

Since the loan limit of a reverse mortgage is a major concern for the borrower as well as the lender, this paper attempts to develop an option-based model to evaluate the loan limits of reverse mortgages. Our model can identify several crucial determinants for reverse mortgage loan limits, such as initial housing price, expected housing price growth, house price volatility, mortality distribution, and interest rates. We also pay special attention to the important implication of mortgage lenders’ informational advantage over reverse mortgage borrowers concerning housing market risk. In reverse mortgage markets, the elderly borrowers typically hold far less, relative to the lenders, or no information about the lenders’ underlying mortgage pools. Such information asymmetry leads these two categories of market participants to generate different perspectives on the risk of the collateralized properties, which can be identified to be important in determining the maximum loan amounts of reverse mortgages. We further find that the maximum loan amount of a reverse mortgage decreases in the correlation between the returns on the pooled underlying housing properties but increases with the number of the pooled mortgages.     

The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options

We study whether exposure to marketwide correlation shocks affects expected option returns, using data on S&P100 index options, options on all components, and stock returns. We find evidence of priced correlation risk based on prices of index and individual variance risk. A trading strategy exploiting priced correlation risk generates a high alpha and is attractive for CRRA investors without frictions. Correlation risk exposure explains the cross-section of index and individual option returns well. The correlation risk premium cannot be exploited with realistic trading frictions, providing a limits-to-arbitrage interpretation of our finding of a high price of correlation risk.     

OPTIMAL BOND CALL POLICIES UNDER TRANSACTIONS COSTS

In this paper I analyze the effects of refunding transactions costs on the firm's optimal call policy. Refunding transactions costs cause the firm to delay calling a bond when its market value first reaches the call price. This effect causes the price path of a callable bond to be a locally concave function of the interest rate, reaching a maximum price above the call price. Comparative static results show that the magnitude of the premium above the call price is an increasing function of transactions costs. An empirical test on a sample of nonconvertible bonds supports the model's transactions costs prediction.     

Understanding Housing Market Volatility

The Campbell–Shiller present value formula implies a factor structure for the price–rent ratio of housing market. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose the price–rent ratios of 23 major housing markets into a national factor and independent local factors, and we link these factors to the economic fundamentals of the housing markets. We find that a large fraction of housing market volatility is local and that the national factor has become more important than local factors in driving housing market volatility since 1999, consistent with the findings in Del Negro and Otrok (2007). The local volatilities mostly are due to time variations of idiosyncratic housing market risk premia, not local growth. At the aggregate level, the growth and interest rate factors jointly account for less than half of the total variation in the price–rent ratio. The rest is due to the aggregate housing market risk premium and a pricing error. We find evidence that the pricing error is related to money illusion, especially at the onset of the recent housing market bubble. The rapid rise in housing prices prior to the 2008 financial crisis was accompanied by both a large increase in the pricing error and a large decrease in the housing market risk premium.     

The Wealth Effects of Bank Financing Announcements in Highly Leveraged Transactions

We analyze the effect of financing announcements of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) on the stock prices of the banks that lead HLT-lending syndicates. For our sample of 41 HLTs, we document that the first HLT and bank financing announcements result in positive wealth effects for the lending banks. We also find that these wealth effects are lower in 1985, for smaller HLTs, and for banks with a high loan loss reserve to total asset ratio. Finally, we report that Leveraged Buyout (LBO) targets gain about 2 percent, whereas leveraged recap targets lose about 2 percent, when the first bank financing agreement is announced.     

The intertemporal relationship between market return and variance: an Australian perspective

In this paper we investigate the intertemporal relationship between the market risk premium and its conditional variance in an Australian setting. Using a bivariate EGARCH‐M model combined with the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) framework as proposed by Engle (2000), we find evidence of a positive relationship between the market risk premium and its variance and evidence of two distinct interest rate effects. Furthermore, while the bond market's own variance is not priced by investors, we find that the covariance between equity and bond markets is a significant risk factor that is priced in the market.     

The pricing of real estate investment trust initial public offerings

This paper examines the pricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Unlike standard corporations, evidence suggests that REIT IPOs are correctly priced in the initial market. Significant negative initial-day return for mortgage REITs is found to be a function of using the bid price to calculate returns for those securities, which trade initially over the counter (OTC). If the bid-ask average or the ask price is used in calculating returns, any apparent overpricing disappears. Additionally, we find that once transactions costs are considered, an investor is better off purchasing a REIT on the offering.     

When It Pays to Pay Your Investment Banker: New Evidence on the Role of Financial Advisors in M&As

We provide new evidence on the role of financial advisors in M&As. Contrary to prior studies, top‐tier advisors deliver higher bidder returns than their non‐top‐tier counterparts but in public acquisitions only, where the advisor reputational exposure and required skills set are relatively larger. This translates into a $65.83 million shareholder gain for an average bidder. The improvement comes from top‐tier advisors' ability to identify more synergistic combinations and to get a larger share of synergies to accrue to bidders. Consistent with the premium price–premium quality equilibrium, top‐tier advisors charge premium fees in these transactions.     

Do Firms Strategically Internalize Disclosure Spillovers? Evidence from Cash-Financed M&As

We investigate whether managers internalize the spillover effects of their disclosure on the stock price of related firms and strategically alter their disclosure decisions when doing so is beneficial. Using data on firm-initiated disclosures during all-cash acquisitions, we find evidence consistent with acquirers strategically generating news that they expect will depress the target's stock price. Our results suggest the disclosure strategy leads to lower target returns during the negotiation period when the takeover price is being determined and results in a lower target premium. These findings are robust to a battery of specifications and falsification tests. Our results are consistent with expected spillovers influencing the timing and content of firms’ disclosures in M&A transactions.     

Pricing of Loan Commitments for Facilitating Stochastic Liquidity Needs

A bank loan commitment is often priced as a European-style put option that is used by a company with a known borrowing need on a known future date to lock in an interest rate. The literature has abstracted some of the important institutional features of a loan commitment contract. First, the timing, number, and size of the loan takedowns under such a contract are often random, rather than fixed. Second, companies often use loan commitment contracts to reduce the transaction costs of frequent borrowing and to serve as a guarantee for large and immediate random liquidity needs. Third, commercial banks maintain liquidity reserves for making random spot loans or random committed loans. Partial loan takedowns raise, rather than lower, the opportunity cost of a committed bank??s holding of excess capacity. This paper introduces a ??stochastic needs-based?? pricing model that incorporates these features. Simulations are conducted to illustrate the effects of various parameters on the fair price of a loan commitment.     

Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom

An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002-2006 U.S. house price boom. By contrast, this paper documents a robust, negative correlation between the growth in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers and house price appreciation at the county-level during this time. Using two different instrumental variables approaches, we also establish causal evidence that house price appreciation lowered the share of purchase loans to subprime borrowers. Further analysis using micro-level credit bureau data shows that higher house price appreciation reduced the transition rate into first-time homeownership for subprime individuals. Finally, the paper documents that subprime borrowers did not play a significant role in the increased speculative activity and underwriting fraud that the literature has linked directly to the housing boom. Taken together, these results are more consistent with subprime borrowers being priced out of housing boom markets rather than inflating prices in those markets.