Impacts of the U.S.-Canadian Potash Dispute on the Costs of U.S. Crop Production

The 1987 U.S. antidumping case against Canadian potash producers has had a significant impact on the production costs of major potash-using crops in the United States. This paper examines these impacts for selected U. S. crops by way of a counterfactual analysis. A transfer function is used to model retail potash prices and the change in the series resulting from the case. Results indicate that expenditures on potash by U. S. farmers increased by an average US $ 0.08 per acre for wheat to US $ 1.78 for potatoes during 1988–92 (July-June). Overall, total U.S. potash expenditures increased by an estimated US $ 629.1 million over this period as a result of the antidumping case.
Le cas américain « anti-dumping >> 1987 contre les producteurs canadiens depotasse aeuun effet majeur sur le coût de production des produits agricoles utilisant intensivement de la potasse awe États-Unis. Cet article évalue ces effets pour certains cultures américaines avec une analyse contrefactuel. Un fonction à transfert est développé pour analyser les prix de vente au détail de la potasse et le changement des prix résultant. Les résultats indiquent que les frais d'achats depotasse par les producteurs américains augmentaient d'une moyenne de 0,08 $ E-U par acre pour le bléà une moyenne de 1,78 $ E-Upour les pommes de terres pendant 1988–1992 (juillet-juin). En somme, l'augmentation des dépenses américains totales pour la potasse est estiméà 629,1 millions de $ E-U durant cette période en conséquence de l'affaire >> antidumping «.     

U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate

Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978-1942 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub-period. Influences are all short-run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post-1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.     

浅析美国新能源政策及对我国的影响

应对此轮国际金融危机,美国总统奥巴马推行的新能源政策势必给美国乃至世界能源和经济发展带来深远的影响.以发展新能源为核心,辅之以节能和提高能效,构成了奥巴马能源战略的主要框架.美国新能源政策对我国的影响主要在国际环保方面、国际能源和环保领域标准化方面以及产业领域.中国应及早采取应对策略以防止陷入被动的局面,一是通过加大宣传,寻求国际理解、合作和帮助;二是加快新能源相关标准的制修订;三是积极推动能源技术革新和应用推广.     

Evaluating the U.S. Wheat Protein Complex

This paper models the economic linkages between a commodity (wheat gluten) and a commodity characteristic (wheat protein). The purpose of this research is to address several issues in the wheat protein complex including the impact of the U.S. gluten import quota on producer protein premiums. Four important conclusions are found. First, the hard red winter (HRW) protein market strongly influences wheat gluten market but the wheat gluten market has its greatest influence on the hard red spring (HRS) protein market. Second, the demand for intrinsic protein is estimated to be very elastic. Thus, the returns to breeding or biotechnology programs designed to raise protein levels of wheat are likely to remain stable in response to small increases in wheat protein content. Third, the U.S. import quota on wheat gluten is estimated to provide a 14% increase in the price of wheat gluten in the first year. By the third year, prices are only 5% above the prequota price. U.S. gluten supplies increase about 15% in the first year and remain at about that level for the next two years. Although these are small estimated impacts, they are not far from what the USITC had anticipated. Finally, the three‐year quota increases protein premiums and provides about $500 ($1000) in additional revenue for an average 1000‐acre farm producing HRW (HRS) wheat. Les auteurs ont modélisé les liens économiques entre un produit (le gluten de blé) et une de ses caractéristiques (les protéines). L'objectif était de répondre à plusieurs questions associées au complexe des protéines du blé, notamment l'incidence du contingentement des importations de gluten par les États‐Unis sur les primes consenties aux producteurs en fonction de la valeur protéique du blé. De leur étude, les auteurs tirent quatre grandes conclusions. La premiére est que le marché des protéines du blé roux vitreux d'hiver (BRVH) exerce une forte influence sur le marché du gluten qui, lui, influe principalement sur le marché des protéines du blé roux vitreux de printemps (BRVP). Deuxiémement, on estime que la demande de protéines intrinséques est trés élastique. De petites hausses de la teneur en protéines du blé devraient donc se traduire par un rendement stable des programmes d'hybridation ou de biotechnologie destinés à augmenter la concentration de protéines dans le blé. En troisième lieu, on estime que le contingentement des importations de gluten par les États‐Unis a entraîné une majoration de 14 % du prix de ce produit la premiére année. Deux ans plus tard, les cours s'étaient stabilisés à 5 % au‐dessus du prix en vigueur avant le contingentement. L'offre américaine de gluten augmentera d'environ 15 % la premiére année et se maintiendra à peu prés au même niveau les deux années suivantes. Même si elles ne sont guère importantes, pareilles retombées se rapprochent de celles anticipées par l'USITC. Enfln, les trois années de contingentement ont donné lieu à un relèvement des primes versées pour la concentration en protéines et débouché sur une hausse moyenne de 500 $ (1 000 $) du revenu des exploitations de 1 000 acres qui produisent du BRVH (BRVP).     

Supply Dynamics in the U.S. Hog Industry

A variety of methods and empirical techniques are now available for estimating dynamic economic relationships. Unfortunately, most dynamic modeling procedures rely heavily on the sample data for specification. This is due to a lack of a priori information useful for determining the appropriate lag structure. However, there is frequently a rich source of information that can be used to define lag structures in agricultural supply models. This information is related to the biological and physiological processes characterizing agricultural production. In this paper, a quarterly econometric model of supply response in the U.S. hog industry is specified and estimated. This model incorporates relevant biological features of hog production directly into the specification. The structural integrity of the model is evaluated by examining post-sample predictive ability and mean-path elasticities. The results indicate performance that is consistent with observed behavior in the U.S. hog industry. Nous disposons aujourd'hui de toute une gamme de méthodes et de techniques empiriques pour ?estimation des rapports économiques dynamiques. Malheureusement, la plupart des méthodes de modélisation dynamique dépendent étroitement, pour leurs spécifications, sur des données échantillonnées. Ceci découle ?un manque ?informations a priori utiles pour la détermination de la structure de retard appropriée. Toutefois, on dispose fréquemment ?une riche source ?informations qui peuvent servir à définir les structures de retard dans les modèles de ?offre en agriculture. Cette information est liée aux processus biologiques et physiologiques caractérisant la production agricole. Dans le présent document, nous procédons à la spécification et à ?estimation ?un modèle économétrique trimestriel du comportement de ?offre dans le secteur américain du pore. Ce modèle incorpore directement dans la spécification les caractéristiques biologiques pertinentes de la production porcine. Nous évaluons ?intégrité structurale du modèle en examinant ?aptitude prédictive post-échantillonnage et les valeurs moyennes ?élasticité. Nos résultats laissent conclure à une performance qui vient corroborer le comportement observé dans le secteur américain du porc.     

U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and in no way represent those of the institutions they represent. This paper calibrates a stylized national policy model of the U.S. dairy industry to analyze the effects of liberalizing the tariff quota policy. It is important to distinguish in-quota, over-quota, out-of-quota and nonquota imports. A framework to model quota underfill with out-of-quota imports is highlighted. To endogenize quota underfill and still account for out-of-quota imports, one needs to depict the marginal private benefits of imports under the quota and the corresponding marginal cost curve. The total transaction costs of the import quota scheme can be calculated. This framework is well suited for handling shocks because a change in in-quota or out-of-quota tariffs or a shift in the excess supply/demand curves affects marginal benefits, while a change in the quota affects the marginal cost of imports. We show regime switches affect trade liberalization and that a decrease in tariffs or an increase in quotas may have little effect without liberalizing both instruments. A component approach to model the sector has endogenous government-controlled class prices. An increase in imports of one product can result in an increase in the prices of other nontraded dairy products. This is because component prices change and so impact government-controlled class prices. Nous étalonnons un modèle de programme national stylisé du secteur laitier étatsunien pour analyser les effets d'une libéralisation de lapolitique des contingents tarifaires. Il est important de faire la distinction entre importation à l'intérieur du contingent, excédentaire au contingent, hors-contingent et non visée par un contingent. Nous mettons en évidence un cadre pour modéliser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent en présence d'importations hors-contingent. Pour endogénéiser la portion non utilisée d'un contingent tout en gardant en compte les importations hors-contingent, il faut décrire les avantages privés marginaux des importations prévues dans le contingent et la courbe des coûts marginaux correspondants. Les coûts transactionnels totaux des régimes de contingents tarifaires 4aG l'importation peuvent être calculés. Ce cadre convient bien pour absorber les chocs, du fait qu‘un changement des tarifs douaniers imposés aux importations intra-contingent ou aux importations hors-contingent, ou encore un déplacement de la courbe d'offres/demandes excédentaires, se répercute sur les bénéfices marginaux des exportations, alors qu‘un changement du régime de contingentement le fait sur les coûts marginaux. Nous démontrons que des changements de régime influent sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur et qu'une réduction des tarifs douaniers ou une augmentation des contingents peuvent n'avoir que peu d'effets sans une libéralisation réelle des deux instruments. Une solution utilisant les composants laitiers pour modéliser le secteur comporte un contrôle endogène de l'État sur les prix par catégoric de produits. Un accroissement des importations visant un produit donné peut se propager aux prix d'autres produits laitiers non visés par les échanges commerciaux. Une telle réaction vient du fait que les prix des composants changent et qu'ils peuvent se réverbérer sur les prix par catégorie réglementés par l'État.     

《民法典》视域下居住权征收补偿问题研究

研究目的：探究在现行征收法律规则下居住权人获得补偿的路径。研究方法：文献研究法。研究结果：现行法 仅赋予用益物权人在征收中获得补偿的权利,无论是国有土地上房屋征收,还是农村集体土地征收,均未规定用益物 权为独立的征收客体,征收补偿中亦未单独针对用益物权规定补偿类别,实务中用益物权人可以通过征收补偿分配程 序获得相应补偿。研究结论：现行法中,居住权人在征收中不享有独立补偿地位,需从法定所有权补偿类别中主张相 应份额,应以市场价值为主要参考依据。居住权人在征收中应享有程序性权利,以保证实体补偿权利的实现。     

Environmental Regulation and the Spatial Structure of the U.S. Dairy Sector

Substantial public scrutiny about adverse environmental impacts of the dairy sector has resulted in increased environmental regulations. A behavioral model of location and production is developed to examine the impacts of environmental regulations, traditional location factors, and agglomeration economies on the spatial structure and geographical location of dairy production. The results show that counties in the states with more stringent environmental regulations tend to lose dairy inventories to those with less stringent policies. There are substantially meaningful spatial patterns of dairy production. Current dairy production levels are positively correlated while changes in production levels are negatively correlated across counties.     

Can the U.S. ethanol industry compete in the alternative fuels market?

The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54c/ /gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl‐tertiary‐butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE refiners is one hypothesis that may explain this lack of ethanol entry into the fuel‐additives market. As a test of this hypothesis, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the ethanol fuel market is developed. The results support the hypothesis of limit‐pricing behavior on the part of MTBE refiners, and suggest the U.S. corn‐based ethanol industry is vulnerable to limit‐price competition, which could recur. The dependence of the corn‐based ethanol price on supply determinants limits U.S. ethanol refiners' ability to price compete with sugar‐cane‐based ethanol refiners. Without federal support, U.S. ethanol refiners may find it difficult to compete with cheaper sugar‐cane‐refined ethanol, chiefly from Brazil.     

多元化能源战略下美国石油进口态势分析及启示

美国主要的能源战略之一是实现能源供应多元化。多元化能源战略下美国石油进口态势表现为:①石油进口总量、依存程度逐年增加;②从中东地区进口石油所占比例逐年减少;③努力扩大从非OPEC国家特别是周边国家石油进口;④份额油比重仍将继续增加。对我国的启示:①进一步加大国内油气勘探开发力度,确保国内石油稳产增产;②积极实施多元化进口战略,努力规避石油进口风险;③大力实施“走出去”战略,建立稳定的海外石油供应基地。     

Examining the Leontief Paradox in U.S. Agricultural Trade

Factor intensity of United States agricultural trade is examined in the context of Leontief's classic paradox using Leontief's method as well as methods developed recently by Leamer and others. Findings indicate that factor endowments are important determinants of U.S. agriculture's comparative advantage in trade as suggested by the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.     

A Microeconometric Analysis of the U.S. Meat Demand

Price and expenditure elasticities and estimates of the effect of household demographic variables on U.S. meat demand are estimated using the newly released 1987–88 USDA household food consumption survey data. The USDA survey for the first time included variables reflecting respondents' concerns for health and diet information. A hybrid demand system, which combines a modified generalized addilog system and a level version Rotterdam demand system, is developed as the analytical framework. The micro econometric analysis takes into consideration the consumer selection problem, the missing-price problem, and the aggregation and quality variation problem. The most significant household characteristic and socio-economic variables are region, ethnic background, household size, urbanization, food planner, received health information, female household head employment status and proportion of food expenditure on away-from-home consumption. The results support the speculation of other time-series meat demand studies claiming both health concerns and convenience are the reasons for changes in consumer preference in favor of poultry and fish and in disfavor of red meat.     

Competitive Behavior in the U.S. Food Retailing Industry

We develop a model to examine competitive conditions in the U.S. food retailing industry for the years 1967 to 1992 and the effect of financial leverage on industry cost conditions. Changes in total current liabilities contributed to increases in costs while increases in long-term debt were associated with lower costs. The impacts of key technological and market developments on shifts in the competitive index are assessed. The estimated index of market power was low, although significantly different from the perfect competition benchmark of zero from 1983 to 1992. The slight decline in competitive conditions was associated with mergers and acquisitions activity in food retailing.
Nous avons élaboré un modèle mathématique pour examiner: 1) les conditions de concurrentialité agissant dans le marché au détail des aliments aux États-Unis durant la période s'étendant de 1967 à 1992 et 2) l'effet du poids financier sur les conditions de cout du secteur. Les modifications de I'endettement total courant contribuent a accroître les coûts, tandis que les accroissements de I'endettement à long terme auraient plutôt I'effet inverse. Nous examinons I'impact des développements dans les domaines de la technologie et du marché sur les fluctuations de I'indice concurrentiel. L'indice estimatif de pouvoir sur le marchéétait has bien que signiflcativement différent de la marque repére de zéro (situation de concurrence parfaite) pour les années 1983–1992. La légére baisse des conditions de compétitivité est expliquée par les nombreuses fusions et acquisitions survenues dans le marché au détail des aliments durant cette période.     

Short-Run Supply Responses in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

This article investigates the response of beef-cattle producers to changes in the price of cattle. Previous research has suggested that there may be a negative short-run supply response to a permanent increase in the price of cattle. We build a dynamic, rational expectations model that separates the markets for fed and unfed beef. This separation generates predictions that the supply response is generally positive, even for permanent shocks in the short run, and nests the negative supply response as a special case for appropriately restricted demand shocks.     

Production Contracts and Productivity in the U.S. Hog Sector

This article measures the impact of contracting on partial and total factor productivity and the production technology of U.S. hog operations. A sample selection model accounts for the fact that unobservable variables may be correlated with both the operators' decision to contract and farm productivity. Results indicate that the use of production contracts is associated with a substantial increase in factor productivity, and represents a technological improvement over independent production. Results also identify determinants of farmers' decisions to contract and other factors influencing farm productivity.     

Cropping Diversity along the U.S.–Canada Border

Cropping diversity, measured by the Gini coefficient, showed neither the United States nor Canada dominated in diversity along their northern plains border during 1975–1999. While cropping was slightly more concentrated in Canada for about two-thirds of the period, dominant concentration occasionally switched between the two countries. The relative price of canola to wheat and American wheat acreage restrictions were important factors determining diversity. In the early 1990s, American farmers lagged Canadian farmers in adopting alternative crops, possibly due to incentives to maintain wheat base acreage. The decoupling of American subsidies in 1996 had not significantly affected cropping diversification through 1999.     

U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO: Discussion

The views and conclusions expressed in this discussion are those of the author and not those of his institution.     

中国企业应如何应对美国关税法337条款调查

近年来，中国企业在国际贸易中频频遭到美国“337条款”的起诉，造成了巨大的损失。首先介绍了美国《关税法》337条款的内容，然后分析了目前中国企业因为“337条款”所面临的困境，最后提出了中国政府和企业在面对“337条款”时应采取的措施。