Rural development in the digital age: Does information and communication technology adoption contribute to credit access and income growth in rural China?

Information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in rural livelihoods and household well-being. Therefore, this study examines the impact of ICT adoption on farmers' decisions to access credit and the joint effects of ICT adoption and access to credit on household income using 2016 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey data. Both recursive bivariate probit model and a selectivity-corrected ordinary least square regression model are employed for the analysis. The results show that ICT adoption increases the probability of access to credit by 12.8% in rural China and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less-developed regions to access credit. ICT adoption and access to credit affect household income differently. ICT adoption significantly increases household income, while access to credit significantly reduces it, primarily because farmers do not use the acquired credit to invest in income-generating farm and off-farm business activities. ICT adoption has the largest positive impact on household income at the highest 90th quantile. Our findings suggest that improving rural ICT infrastructure to enhance farmers' ICT adoption and developing ICT-based financial products to enable households to access sufficient funds can improve rural household welfare.     

老龄化如何影响我国家庭消费支出——来自中国综合社会调查的证据

基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS)的数据，本文谨慎定义老龄家庭后实证检验了老龄化对我国家庭消费支出的影响。研究发现，老龄化将使家庭消费支出显著下降并对大多数消费分项支出产生较大负面影响，同时会大幅提升家庭医疗服务支出；收入是老龄化影响家庭消费的重要中间变量。基于城乡分类子样本研究发现，乡村家庭受老龄化冲击异常严重，乡村医疗服务供给存在较大缺口。基于分层的城镇子样本回归发现，老龄化对城镇家庭消费的冲击集中体现在较低分位家庭。     

Impact of Internet use on economic well‐being of rural households: Evidence from China

The expansion of the Internet in developing countries has important implications for the economic development of rural areas. Although many studies have investigated various benefits of Internet use, little attention has been paid to find the relationship between Internet use and the economic well‐being of rural households. This paper, therefore, investigates the effects of Internet use on household income and expenditure, using a sample of rural households from China. Both endogenous treatment regression (ETR) and unconditional quantile regression (UQR) techniques are used to identify the homogenous and heterogeneous effects of Internet use, respectively. The ETR results show that Internet use increases household income and expenditure significantly. However, the UQR results reveal that Internet use has a larger impact at the upper distributions of household income and expenditure.     

In search of thresholds in the household income inequality–growth relationship

This paper investigates the shape of the relationship between household income inequality and economic growth. More precisely we search for the existence of threshold values in this relationship by employing a dynamic panel smooth transition regression model to account for potential endogeneity problems. We find that there do exist threshold values (that are different for different groups of countries): below the threshold, household income inequality is growth enhancing, while above the threshold, inequality has a negative or no effect on economic growth.     

收入不平等与家庭借贷行为*——家庭为追求社会地位而借贷的动机真的存在吗

本文利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年度的调查数据,考察了收入不平等对家庭借贷行为的影响,并验证了家庭是否存在为追求社会地位而借贷的动机。研究表明：（1）收入不平等并不是影响家庭是否借贷的主要因素,但是对家庭的负债规模存在十分显著的抑制作用;（2）收入不平等的扩大并不会促使中低收入家庭寻求借贷或提升家庭负债规模,我国家庭并不存在为了追求更高的社会地位而进行借贷的动机;（3）收入不平等的扩大有利于高收入家庭获得更多的正规金融借贷,中低收入家庭则会较多地依赖于非正规金融借贷;（4）户主的人口统计学特征、家庭经济特征以及家庭所处地区特征均是影响家庭借贷行为的重要因素,在正规金融和非正规金融市场上,影响家庭借贷行为的因素存在较明显的差异。     

How County-Level Agricultural Loans and Fiscal Expenditure Impact Rural Residents’ Income in China——An Empirical Study of the Hierarchical Effect by Quantile Regression

Using cross-sectional data from 853 counties in 11 western China provinces, we employ quantile regression (QR) and instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to investigate the hierarchical effect of fiscal expenditure and agricultural loan on rural residents’ income. We find: (1) the relationship between agricultural loan and income is consistent with the inverted U-shape (Kuznets curve); (2) the coefficient of quantile regression for rural residents’ loan gradually decreases; particularly, the impact on the high-income group is insignificant (at 0.90 quantile); (3) for 0.10 and 0.50 quantile, the increase of fiscal expenditure would hinder rather than promote income growth; (4) the restraining effect becomes more pronounced for the lower groups; in contrast, there is a significant positive relationship between income and fiscal expenditure for 0.90 quantile’s income group. Implications for government policy formulation are propounded accordingly.     

Trade liberalisation,poverty, and inequality in Vietnam: a quantile regression approach

This study examines the effects of trade liberalisation on rural household welfare, poverty, and inequality in Vietnam, with the use of multiple estimation strategies, including the panel quantile regression approach based on Canay's two-step estimator. Taking account of the multi-faceted nature of trade liberalisation, we consider a set of household-level trade-related variables, including employment in export, import-competing, and manufacturing sectors. A unique panel data set is constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys conducted in 2002, 2004 and 2006. We find that employment in trade-related sectors contributes significantly to rural household welfare. Moreover, the effects of trade-related employment on welfare are heterogeneous across the welfare/income distribution, in that trade-related employment sectors have different influences on different groups/quantiles of households.     

Income inequality among minority farmers in China: Does social capital have a role?

We used recently available household panel data collected by China's National Bureau of Statistics to examine the effects of natural, human, material, and social capital on income inequality among minority farmers in China's Xinjiang Province between 2011 and 2012. Results obtained from panel quantile regression and correlated random effects’ models show that income inequality and the poverty of ethnic farmers have been decreasing to some extent. Results also indicated that human capital exacerbates income inequality among the minorities, whereas the effect of natural capital on income inequality is not evident. Social and material capital reduce income inequality among ethnic minorities. Results from the decomposition of the Gini coefficient indicate that material and social capital contribute to a substantial majority of the income inequality in the region.     

Microfinance and gender empowerment

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of household production, bargaining and credit to analyse how access to microcredit affects intra-household decision-making and welfare, and identify conditions under which female household members are most likely to benefit. We show that, consistent with ethnographic accounts of the impact of microcredit programmes on poor households, access to loans can lead to a variety of outcomes for intra-household decision-making and welfare depending on initial conditions and that, in some instances, women borrowers may experience a decline in welfare. We identify two instances in which a woman is most likely to benefit: when there is scope for investing the loan profitably in a joint activity, and when a large share of the household budget is devoted to household public goods.     

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN THE MARKET FOR CONSUMER DURABLES: EVIDENCE FROM MICRO DATA ON CAR LOANS*

We investigate the significance of borrowing constraints in the market for consumer loans. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on auto loan contracts we estimate the elasticities of loan demand with respect to interest rate and maturity. We find that, with the exception of high income households, consumers are very responsive to maturity and less responsive to interest rate changes. Both elasticities vary with household income, with the maturity elasticity decreasing and the interest rate elasticity increasing with income. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of binding credit constraints in the auto loan market.     

New estimates of labour supply elasticities for married women in Canada 1996–2005

In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income at the household level to compute the marginal tax rates faced by each individual. We then use these marginal tax rates to compute net own-wage, spouse-wage, and nonlabour income. We show how the magnitude of the estimated elasticities varies depending on whether net or gross wages and income are used in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses’ wages.     

金融排斥对农户收入的影响——基于PSM方法的经验分析

从贷款、储蓄、证券和关系4个维度构建金融排斥指标,采用倾向得分匹配法分析了4种类型的金融排斥对中国农户收入的影响。研究发现:证券排斥对农户收入的影响最大,储蓄排斥、贷款排斥和关系排斥的影响依次递减;证券排斥和储蓄排斥对东部地区农户收入的冲击较大,贷款排斥和关系排斥对西部地区农户收入的影响较大。指出:高收入地区应注重开发涉农金融产品,低收入地区应保证提供基础信贷;应实施分类瞄准的普惠性金融政策。     

The income elasticity of household energy demand: a quantile regression analysis

This article examines variation in the income elasticity of household energy demand across the energy expenditure distribution using expenditure data from the five most recent Household Budget Surveys (HBSs) in Ireland: the 1987, 1994/1995, 1999/2000, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010 HBS. The analysis uses a two-stage instrumental variable quantile regression approach and is based on each HBS cross section, as well as the overall pooled observations. The estimated elasticities are compared across low- and high-energy-consumption scenarios and to a benchmark elasticity estimated using two-stage least squares. The results provide evidence that there is significant variation in the income elasticities across the energy expenditure distribution and that care must be taken when using the constant mean elasticity for policy purposes. More specifically, any examination of the future impact of a change in income support policy measures on energy consumption should recognize the substantial context-dependent variation in the income elasticity.     

Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?

This paper analyzes the effect of household wealth (including housing and financial wealth) on housing sales and probes their long-run and short-run dynamic relationships. We further examine the short-run effect of financial wealth on housing sales by employing quantile regressions, restricted upon different liquidity (quantile) levels and up-down housing markets, from which the differences between the early and late stages of an uptrend/downtrend can be respectively exhibited. We find that housing wealth, income, and mortgage rates have long-run influences on housing sales. Looking at the short run, we find that housing sales only respond to housing wealth and mortgage rates. When we distinguish the effects of financial wealth on housing sales in up-down housing markets, we note a positive influence of financial wealth on housing sales in down markets, but not in up markets. Particularly, our results show an impact of housing liquidity on the short-run relationships.     

数字普惠金融与中国农村家庭财富差距

促进农民增收致富和推动乡村振兴是二十大关注的重要问题。本文使用中国家庭金融调查数据和数字普惠金融指数,用分位回归方法分析了数字普惠金融对中国农村家庭财富差距的影响。结果发现：数字普惠金融可以显著提高农村家庭财富,有助于缩小家庭财富差距。随着家庭财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对于农村不同财富家庭总资产的正向影响由大到小。由于不同财富家庭的负债结构差异较大,随着财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对家庭净资产的影响则由小到大。夏普里值分解结果表明,数字普惠金融对农村家庭财富差距的贡献度近三分之一。异质性分析表明,数字普惠金融发展对于低收入家庭和低教育水平家庭财富的正向作用更强,进一步证明了上述结论。机制分析表明,数字普惠金融能显著促进农村家庭特别是低财富家庭的创业行为,而创业对于最低财富组家庭资产的正向刺激作用最强;受流动性约束可能性越大的低财富家庭,越能从数字普惠金融的发展中获益。因而进一步证实数字普惠金融可以缩小农村家庭财富差距。本文的研究说明,发展数字普惠金融对于探索农民致富路径和推进乡村振兴有积极作用。     

FAST FOOD PRICES AND ADULT BODY WEIGHT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE BASED ON LONGITUDINAL QUANTILE REGRESSION MODELS

With a parallel increase in the consumption of food away from home, particularly fast food, and the obesity prevalence in the United States, evidence on the potential effectiveness of fiscal pricing policies to curb obesity is needed. We estimate changes in the dispersion of the entire conditional distribution of body mass index (BMI) associated with changes in fast food prices for adults using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 in cross‐sectional and longitudinal quantile regression models. We find that the ordinary least squares estimate for men underestimates the negative relationship of fast food prices with BMI at the 50th and upper quantiles in cross‐sectional models although the statistical significance disappears in the longitudinal individual fixed effects quantile regression. Among subpopulations, we find that a 10% increase in the price of fast food is associated with 0.9% and 0.7% lower BMI for low‐income women and women with any children, respectively, at the 90th quantile in a longitudinal individual fixed effects model. Our results imply that fiscal pricing policies such as fast food taxes might have a greater impact on the weight outcomes of low‐income women or women with children in the upper tail of the conditional BMI distribution (JEL I00, I19).     

Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households

We develop an integrated micro-macro model framework that is based on household survey data for a subset of the EU countries that the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) contains. We use the model for the purpose of assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential instruments, namely loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and debt service to income (DSTI) ratio caps, and illustrate its outcome for four European countries. The simulation results from the model can be attached to bank balance sheets and their risk parameters to derive the impact of the policy measures on their capital position. The model framework also allows quantifying the macroeconomic feedback effects that would result from the policy-induced reduction of demand for mortgage loans. An assessment as to the comparative efficacy of LTV- versus DSTI-based policy suggests that DSTI caps may be more effective in containing household risk.     

Credits and non-interest rate determinants of loan demand: a Spanish case study

This article uses bivariate probit analysis to model the potential relationship between the condition of being credit-unconstrained and holding loans as well as to ascertain determinants of a household being credit-unconstrained and likely holding consumer and real-estate loans. It documents that family size, education, permanent and transitory incomes, among others, affect Spanish households’ desire and capacity to hold loans. Furthermore, these factors were found to affect demands for real-estate and consumer loans differently. In general, the above and other results from this research provide insights that would interest credit consumers, credit suppliers, and policy makers in Spain.