Untangling Political Ideology and Party Identification in the United States

By analyzing an election night survey of voters in the 1992 U.S. Presidential election, this article explicates the meaning, relationships, and effects on vote of ideological self-designation (liberal, centrist, conservative) and party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican). In addition to concern about a candidate's character, different interests about governmental interventions designed to augment economic equity, social equality, and the public's health interpret the meaning of these categories. Using seven social attributes as instruments, a two-stage least-squares analysis and a sensitivity analysis suggest that ideology has a stable net direct effect on party identification. The effect of party identification on ideology is negligible. Concern about a candidate's character and public health interests strongly interpret the effect of ideology on party identification; the effects of interests concerning equity and rights are not as strong. Because the social attributes explain very little variance in vote, whereas more malleable variables – ideology and party identification – have very strong effects, electoral choices now tend to be more changeable than in the past.     

Heterogeneous Treatment Under Regression Discontinuity Design: Application to Female High School Enrolment

This paper undertakes a regression discontinuity (RD) framework with multiple cutoffs unlike typical RD setting where researchers normalize the score variable and pool all the observations. This paper explores this heterogeneity in the effect of Islamic mayor on female secular high schooling in Turkey using the multiple cutoff RD framework developed in Cattaneo et al. (2016). The presence of many parties in the 1994 municipality election in Turkey means that vote share of the strongest opponent party can vary substantially leading to different cutoffs. Meyersson (2014) finds that Islamic mayors of 1994 promoted female high schooling using a normalized and pooled RD framework, which averages the effect across all the different cutoffs. We extend his work by segregating the effect of Islamic mayor across different opponent party's vote shares. Our results suggest that the positive effect on female secular high school attainment was more pronounced in municipalities where the strongest opponent party was secular than where the opponent was conservative. This heterogeneity can be attributed to a policy change in 1999, which restricted religious high school graduates from entering universities.     

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

Political parties' use of web based marketing: some preliminary findings relating to first‐time voters in the 2005 general election

• This paper examines the marketing of political parties, via websites, in the 2005 UK general election with specific reference to first‐time voters (age 18–24). Common perception views young voters as predominantly politically apathetic and less likely to vote than older generations. However, research literature suggests given the right message and medium, the group will engage in the political process. Could the Internet provide a path to engaging younger voters and will websites become a key marketing vehicle for political parties?
• Young voters were asked to review political party websites using an extended web assessment method (EWAM), which is an evaluation tool created to determine both the importance and presence of website evaluation criteria. Preliminary research suggests that respondents felt the Internet had a significant role to play in the election process and marketing of campaign messages. However, while political parties scored well in relation to the technical/software aspects of website design, participants felt website material had little appeal and were ineffective in influencing voter intent.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring public opinion via digital footprints

Do digital traces accurately reflect individual preferences? Can signals from social media be used to measure public opinion? This paper provides evidence in favour of these hypotheses. We test a regression and post-stratification strategy that combines samples of digital traces with a stratification frame containing individual-level socio-economic data, in order to generate area forecasts of the outcome social phenomena of interest. In our example, we forecast the two-party vote of Democrats and Republicans in the 2018 Texas congressional district and Senate election. Our implementation assumes we can observe, and sample, individuals signaling their preference by favoring one virtual location over another; in our case, visiting Democrat versus Republican Facebook pages during the election campaign. Over the course of seven weeks preceding the mid-term elections we generate vote share forecasts which do not use any traditional survey data as input. Our results indicate that individuals leave digital traces that reflect their preferences.     

Endogenous party structure

This paper proposes a model of two-party representative democracy on a single-dimensional political space, in which voters choose their parties in order to influence the parties’ choices of representative. After two candidates are selected as the median of each party’s support group, Nature determines the candidates’ relative likability (valence). Based on the candidates’ political positions and relative likability, voters vote for the preferable candidate without being tied to their party’s choice. We show that (1) there exists a nontrivial equilibrium under natural conditions, and (2) the equilibrium party border and the ex ante probabilities of the two-party candidates winning are sensitive to the distribution of voters. In particular, we show that if a party has a more concentrated subgroup, then the party tends to alienate its centrally located voters, and the party’s probability of winning the final election is reduced. Even if voter distribution is symmetric, an extremist party (from either side) can emerge as voters become more politically divided.     

Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists

Stochastic models of elections typically indicate that all parties, in equilibrium, will adopt positions at the electoral center. Empirical analyses discussed in this paper suggest that convergence of this kind is rarely observed. Here we examine a stochastic electoral model where parties differ in their valences – the electorally perceived, non-policy “quality” of the party leader. It is assumed that valence may either be exogenous, in the sense of being an intrinsic characteristic of the leader, or may be due to the contributions of party activists, who donate time and money and thus enhance electoral support for the party. Theorem 1 shows that vote maximization depends on balancing these two opposed effects. Theorem 2 provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to the electoral mean when activist valence is zero. The paper then examines empirical electoral models for the Netherlands circa 1980 and Britain in 1979, 1992 and 1997 and shows that party divergence from the electoral mean cannot be accounted for by exogenous valence alone. The balance condition suggests that the success of the Labour party in the election of 1997 can be attributed to a combination of high exogenous valence and pro-Europe activist support.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Voter turnout in a multidimensional policy space

Many factors influence the likelihood of citizens turning out to vote. In this paper we focus our attention on issue voting, that is, on the likelihood that different policies offered by politicians affect the probability of voting. If voters consider both the benefits and the costs of voting, rational voters will only vote when politicians offer differentiated policies. In a multidimensional policy space this implies that citizens only vote when they perceive enough difference on the issues they care about the most. We investigate the role of voter abstention due to indifference in a unidimensional and a multidimensional policy setting using data from the US National Election Studies for 1972–2000 and find support for our predictions: voters perceiving a small difference between the platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties are less likely to vote; and voters who perceive the two parties as more different on a larger number of issues are significantly more likely to vote.     

What is the role of perceived leadership capacity in presidential politics?

The relevance of leadership models in presidential leadership, and principally the role of perceived leadership in presidential election years, is an area of study with limited development but increasing importance. This study explores the relationship between young voters' leadership assessment of presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain, and their reports of voting behavior during the 2008 presidential election. Leadership perceptions were collected from 812 respondents prior to the election. Results indicate that candidate leadership assessments have a significant effect on candidate preference after controlling for the impact of party identification and self‐perceived political efficacy. Further, political efficacy significantly impacted respondents' intent to vote in the election after controlling for these same variables. Party affiliation produced significant differences across the political ideology, leadership ratings, political efficacy, and likelihood of voting variables. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications as they pertain to political leadership.     

Pharmaceutical drug misuse: are industry of employment and occupation risk factors?

We explore the misuse of pharmaceutical drugs in the Australian workforce, focusing on whether any differences exist between workers in particular industries or occupations. In terms of industry, being employed in hospitality is positively associated with pharmaceutical drug misuse, while being employed in finance, insurance and retail is inversely related. In terms of occupation, we find that being a labourer is positively related to misuse of pharmaceutical drugs, while being employed in managerial, professional, sales, clerical or administrative roles is associated with a lower tendency. Further analysis of occupational effects revealed that being in a blue‐collar occupation, as a whole, is positively related to pharmaceutical drug misuse relative to white‐collar employment. Moreover, being employed in higher status roles is associated with a lower likelihood of such behaviour. Our findings imply that particular workplace pressures, cultural norms and/or working conditions might be influential factors behind workers' drug misuse.     

The interests of white‐collar workers and their representation in the German manufacturing sector: new initiatives,opportunity structures,framing and resources

In the German manufacturing sector, white‐collar workers have outpaced blue‐collar workers in numbers. Therefore, unions and works councils have launched initiatives to attract, mobilise and organise white‐collar workers. The analysis is drawing on a conceptual framework that looks at the opportunity structures, framing processes and resources of the initiatives.     

Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls

Pre‐election polls can suffer from survey effects, causing biases in forecasted election outcomes. We advocate a simple methodology to estimate the magnitude of survey effects, by collecting data both before and after the election. This method is illustrated by means of a field study with data concerning the 2009 European Parliament elections in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, especially for individuals with low intention to vote. For our data, the overall survey effect on party shares is small. This effect can be more substantial, for example, if political orientation and voting intention are correlated in the sample.     

Ethnography and the Making of “The People”: Uncovering Conservative Populist Politics in the United States

The election of Donald Trump, the Brexit vote, and rise of conservative populism in countries around the world has led to an abundance of scholarship on populism and the white working class. Much of this work seeks to explain the underlying cause of this conservative populist politics, focusing on globalization and economic precarity, racism and anti‐immigrant sentiment, or failures of political leadership. Survey data and polling analyses, in particular, explain relationships between demographics, political opinions, and voting results. Though quantitative data on the social groups or activists most involved in populist politics are important, missing from this research are ethnographies of populism that explore how local, state, and national actors influence the meaning of “the people.” In this article, I will argue that ethnography is particularly well‐suited for exploring the coming together of local and national politics and the subtle ways that economic insecurity, racism, sexism, and Islamophobia intersect in the making of “hard working taxpayers” or “ordinary folks.” I draw from research in a predominantly white, former manufacturing town in central Maine to illustrate the significance of this ethnographic approach to populism.     

Alternation of parties in power and economic volatility: testing the rational partisan hypothesis and policy learning hypothesis

Right and left parties have distinct macroeconomic preferences that could create different levels of volatility during their executive tenures. But rational partisan theory argues that, because actors in the economy anticipate ruling party behavior, partisan differences only matter when election outcomes are uncertain. We argue that policy risk from ruling parties extends beyond elections, leading to important variation in growth volatility that occurs during a ruling party’s tenure. Building on theories of policy risk and learning, we argue that after elections, economic actors still face uncertainty about the policies of new ruling parties. With time in power, new ruling parties build policy track records, reducing policy risk and, thus, volatility. We estimate a learning curve model of ruling party duration’s effect on the variation in quarterly GDP growth rates. Using data from 44 democracies between 1981 and 2009, we find that learning processes extend beyond the conclusion of uncertain elections.     

Maximizing political vote in multiple districts

This paper models a resource allocation problem in the political context. Voters and political candidates of two parties are positioned in each of n given electoral districts. We assume that each voter will vote for the candidate he is more attracted to. This attraction is modeled by an attraction function. Each of the parties now attempts to allocate a finite budget to maximize their objective, which is either the popular vote or the number of districts, in which the party has a majority. Individual scenarios are examined with respect to leader-follower solutions and Nash equilibria. The paper then describes a dynamic model that successively allocates existing funds plus additional donations to candidates in different electoral districts.     

Dynamics in the fragmentation of political party systems

Fragmentation is an important dimension of political party systems. It concerns the proliferation of minor parties and the willingness of voters to vote for them. Past research relates party fragmentation to the voting system in a country; by Duverger's hypothesis, fragmentation should be highest in counties with proportional representation. The entropy measure is used to quantify fragmentation. The upper limit of fragmentation is analyzed in 24 countries, and the patterns of change in fragmentation are identified with mathematical difference equations, testing the idea that voters and parties evolve toward an equilibrium in fragmentation. The highest level of fragmentation is found comparable with a psychological limit on human information processing. In 17 of 22 countries, fragmentation moves toward an equilibrium, regardless of the type of voting system, and countries with higher equilibrium levels usually evolve more slowly. The results affirm the stability of democratic governments but raise questions about voters' strategies and suggest that some voters may try to control fragmentation when they vote.     

The greening of British politics?

The spectacular success of the British Greens in winning 15% of the vote in the 1989 elections for the European parliament contrasts starkly with their previous failures. The turnaround in their fortunes is attributable in part to increasing awareness of environmental issues, both domestic and global, but especially to changes in the state of party competition: the collapse of the Liberal and Social Democratic Alliance, the unpopularity and negative campaign of the Conservative party, and the Labour party's abandonment of unilateral nuclear disarmament, all exacerbated by low turnout in an election for a parliament few Britons knew or cared much about. It is likely, however, that in a general election more usual conditions of political competition will obtain and that, because of the disciplines of the British electroal system, the Greens' success of 1989 will not be repeated in national elections.     

Seat allocation distributions and seat biases of stationary apportionment methods for proportional representation

In a proportional representation system, apportionment methods are used to round the vote proportion of a party to an integer number of seats in parliament. Assuming uniformly distributed vote proportions, we derive the seat allocation distributions for stationary divisor methods. An important characteristic of apportionment methods are seat biases, that is, expected differences between actual seat numbers and ideal shares of seats, when the parties are ordered from largest to smallest. We obtain seat bias formulas for the stationary divisor methods and for the quota method of greatest remainders.Acknowledgement. We thank Friedrich Pukelsheim for many fruitful discussions.Received March 2004     

Beyond Space: Spatial (Re)Production and Middle‐Class Remaking Driven by Jiaoyufication in Nanjing City,China

An extension of gentrification, jiaoyufication–urban change driven by a desire for high‐quality education–is not only displacing previous lower‐class residents, but also replacing earlier jiaoyufiers with newcomers, turning formerly blue‐collar neighbourhoods into white‐collar ones. New middle‐class communities are emerging as spatially limited school catchment zones attract social groups who occupy these spaces in an attempt to facilitate social mobility or consolidate social status, causing tension between them. Consequently, jiaoyufication has narrowed down opportunities for intergenerational social mobility and exacerbated social polarization, gradually replacing traditional social hierarchies with intergenerational neoliberal stratification.