The role of excess capacity in determining market power in natural gas transportation markets

The approval by FERC of a regulated natural gas pipeline’s market-based rate application depends upon the availability of substitute pipelines with sufficient capacity to maintain the current transport price. But how much alternate capacity is enough? Clearly, the price will not increase when alternate pipelines have unsubscribed capacity equal to the capacity of the applicant pipeline, since the applicant’s capacity is then perfectly substitutable. And indeed, FERC has approved market-based rates when this “complete-replacement” criterion has been met. However, complete-replacement is too stringent a condition and we determine precisely how much alternate capacity suffices to keep the price from rising.     

Renewable energy and low-carbon policy spillover effects on natural gas demand

Recent legislation intended to increase the use of renewable energy sources and lower the amount of carbon dioxide emissions from energy has changed the structure of energy markets. The effect of these policies on carbon-intensive fuel sources is rather obvious. For natural gas, though, the effect is not immediately clear. This letter uses a structural model of natural gas demand to uncover whether these policies have led to increased demand because natural gas is a relatively clean source of energy that couples well with renewables or if these policies have crowded out natural gas on net.     

西部地区以油气为主导的新城建设设想

油气资源作为西部重要资源之一,把油气作为主导产业来发展西部新城,重点是在油气区域内"整县设市"或在靠近油气区且靠近大城范围内建设新城;同时建设新城并非只为解决现有大城市的社会经济问题,而且可作为服务于限制大城市发展的预防性措施。油气与新城相结合,最终目的就是为了通过这一战略实现西部大开发,促进西部经济的发展。     

A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality

Oil and natural gas reservoirs typically span multiple productive leases so that no owner has rights to the entire stock of resource, resulting in production externalities. Previous literature has examined the effectiveness of government regulation in Texas and Oklahoma in abating these externalities, finding Oklahoma to be more successful in unifying common pools and securing property rights. Using regression discontinuity design, we quantify the impact of regulatory difference between the two states. We find that Oklahoma produces an average of 3361 more barrels of oil over the life of a well, relative to Texas. Given the maturity of the fields in question, the result underscores the continuing importance of addressing common pool externalities even after the primary phase of recovery has largely been completed.     

The impact of restructuring and deregulation on gas rates

This article evaluates the impact of consumer choice programs, price caps, and sliding scale plans on consumer prices of gas using a custom survey of public service commissions and data from the Department of Energy. A seemingly unrelated regressions model estimates residential, commercial and industrial prices jointly, controlling for potentially endogenous demand. Consumer choice programs are estimated to lower residential and commercial prices significantly, by bringing competition to markets with smaller consumers. Prices fall even before deregulation as utilities build consumer loyalty and fight competition. Sliding scale plans are estimated to lower prices of small consumers while raising industrial prices. Price caps lead to overall higher prices, with unclear ranking across consumer classes.      

Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics.     

The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies

Recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations. Several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes, employment, and tax revenues. None of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process. Yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy. This commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds. Due to questionable assumptions, the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated.     

Incentive regulation in local telecommunications: The effects on price markups

The governing bodies of the telecommunications industry instituted a major shift from rate of return to price cap regulation in an effort to foster competition and improve efficiency. This paper focuses on the local exchange market and examines the price markup before and after the implementation of price cap regulation to measure the effects of the change on consumer welfare. The average price markup increased slightly after price cap regulation; however, the average price decreased, indicating that consumers benefited without firms losing from the regulatory shift.      

美英对公用事业的管制

本文简要地介绍了美国和英国对公用事业实行管制的由来、做法和经验。作者指出．由于生用事业的自然垄断性质及其与公共福利密切相关的缘故，使得美英两国在公用事业各部门建立了管制体系。实践表明，管制既有利于保障公众福利，又有利于改善公用事业的经营管理。他们的经验可为中国改革公用事业的管理体制提供有益的参考。     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

The effect of natural gas discoveries in Israel on the strength of its currency

In light of the natural gas discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and their impact on the Israeli economy, I must assess the change in the exchange rate and its impact on the foreign exchange market. There are numerous positive social impacts resulting from the gas discoveries including optimising Israel's energy security and its move to cleaner energy. However, not all of the consequences of discovering natural resources may be positive. One possibly negative outcome could be the well-known phenomenon called the “Dutch disease” in which the discovery of a natural resource can cause a country's currency to spike. To investigate whether the strengthening of the Israeli currency in recent years is a symptom of the “Dutch disease” I used daily and intraday event study methodology to explore the changes in the real exchange rate of the Israeli shekel and the US dollar between 2008 and 2017, according to announcements related to the gas discoveries published during this period. In addition, I examined whether an increase in the real exchange rate was a result of the publication of announcements about natural gas harming the manufacturing and industrial sectors. I found that announcements related to gas discoveries did affect the real exchange rate and caused an appreciation of the Israeli shekel. Investors could analyse the announcements and achieve an abnormal return in the foreign exchange market. In addition, investors' expectations of an appreciation in the real exchange rate causes damage to various manufacturing and industrial sectors.     

我国石油天然气会计准则国际趋同分析

为规范石油天然气行业特殊的交易或事项，美国等国家和国际会计准则理事会（IASB）都发布了专门的石油天然气会计准则或采掘业会计准则。我国于2006年2月发布了《企业会计准则第27号一石油天然气开采》会计准则，对当前我国石油天然气开采业财务会计发展中的热点、难点问题进行了规范。本文通过对比分析油气新准则与美国FASB制定的相关准则和国际财务报告准则第6号（IFRS6）的差异，认为我国油气新准则基本实现了与美国相关准则的趋同，但与IFRS6还需要多方面的协调。     

西部大开发与生态经济发展试析

本文运用生态经济学的有关理论,结合西部生态环境与经济发展的现实,分析了西部大开发所面临的尖锐的生态经济方面,认为经济发展不足是矛盾的主要方面,产业结构失衡与低层次并存是造成矛盾的深层次原因,因此,西部大开发要实现西部生态经济可持续发展,必须以经济发展为主,按既有利于经济增长又有利于环境保护的双重标准进行产业结构调整。     

The curse of natural resources in the transition economies*

The curse of natural resources is a well‐documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

The 2001-3 electricity distribution price control review in the Netherlands: regulatory process and consumer welfare

The outcome of the first electricity distribution price control review in The Netherlands did not deliver the savings initially suggested by the regulator (DTe). During the course of the first 3-year regulatory period, DTe revised the X-Factors four times. The impact on tariffs has been substantial. DTe initially announced in 2000 that savings would be equivalent to 25% of electric distribution revenues ( 2bn). However, final X-Factors in May 2003 resulted in savings of 10% of revenues. The total cost to consumers—when compared to the most probable outcome—has been 140 mln (7% of total revenues).      

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth

The aim of this paper is to estimate the sensitivity of thenatural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for 15 OECDcountries over the period 1961–95, on the hypothesis thatthe natural rate of growth is not exogenously given. To do this,we estimate the natural rate of growth and, then, how it changeswhen the actual growth rate is different from the natural rate.As a side test of the endogeneity hypothesis, we also test forthe direction of causality between national output and factorinputs for the same set of countries. Our results support theidea that the natural rate of growth is not independent of theactual rate of growth and bring to the fore the importance offocusing on demand as well as supply for an understanding oflong-run growthrate differences between countries.     

我国自然垄断行业的价格研究

自然垄断行业是一个特殊的行业,我国自然垄断行业的产品和服务价格明显偏高,效率低下,政府必须对其价格进行规制。然而,常用的价格规制方法也有一定的局限性。自然垄断行业的价格管理改革,需要通过市场机制、竞争机制以及政府有效的规制共同对其价格发挥作用。