土地供应对住房价格影响的实证研究——以上海市为例

以上海市为例,采用Granger因果关系检验和基于预期的房地产价格模型分析土地供应对住房价格的影响.研究结果是:土地供应能通过预期作用对住房价格产生负影响;土地供应对住房价格影响的弹性系数为-0.01.研究结论为:为抑制住房价格过快上涨,政府增加土地供应的措施是可行的;稳定土地供应有助于稳定房价;土地囤积将减弱住房价格对土地供应变化的时效,应抑制土地囤积行为.     

城市住宅用地空间扩张机制与调控对策

城市住宅用地空间扩张的必然性与土地资源的稀缺性这一对矛盾,在城市化进程迅速推进的今天显得尤为尖锐,如何实现城市居民居住质量的提高与城市土地资源的可持续利用成为迫切需要解决的问题。文章总结了我国当前城市住宅用地扩张的特点,从经济、制度、技术以及人为干预四个方面对我国当前城市住宅用地空间扩张机制进行了解析,并对城市住宅用地空间扩张过程所出现的问题提出了相关调控措施。     

土地集约利用与经济发展的空间差异研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

以长三角为例,分别建立土地集约利用及经济发展水平评价指标体系,运用全局主成分分析法,对1999—2008年土地集约利用与经济发展水平进行评价,并运用重心迁移模型和空间自相关模型分析了长三角土地集约利用、经济发展水平的空间差异特征及两变量的空间相关性。结果表明,从重心迁移模型看,两重心较为集中地分布在苏州市域内,在迁移变化过程中,其相对距离不断缩小;土地集约利用与经济的协调发展程度从低层次的不协调逐步向高层次的协调发展模式演变。从两系统的空间相关性上看,2008年两系统存在显著的相关性;从局部自相关来看,上海、苏州、无锡和嘉兴属于"高—高"热点区域;扬州、泰州、镇江、常州和台州市属于"低—低"区域;南通、湖州、绍兴和舟山市属于"低—高"异质性区域;南京、杭州和宁波市属于"高—低"异质性区域。     

WAREHOUSES,TRUCKS, AND PM2.5: HUMAN HEALTH AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRY GROWTH IN THE EASTERN INLAND EMPIRE

The eastern Inland Empire of Southern California has experienced dramatic growth of the logistics industry since 2000. This paper analyzes the air pollution implications of that expansion. It is found that truck traffic will generate significant air pollution, especially PM_2.5. The estimated excess mortality associated is 32–64 cases per year, with a combined excess mortality and morbidity value of $247–$455 million per year. This represents 44%–81% of the estimated wages generated by industry growth and $5 million–$9 million per distribution facility. These estimates suggest that policies should be developed to internalize those costs.     

THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL HELP AND GIFTS ON HOUSING DEMAND AND COST BURDENS

Financial transfers are an important source of income for many households and recipients may use these funds to pay for housing services. This paper examines the separate impact of financial help and substantial gifts on both housing demand and housing cost burden. The results indicate receiving gifts has a positive and statistically significant impact on housing demand. Households receiving help or gifts have substantially higher housing cost burdens, all else being held constant. These findings have implications for the financial well-being of recipient households and ultimately, the mortgage industry . ( JEL R20, R21)     

SAVINGS MOBILIZATION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia's remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.     

HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF HOUSING OUTPUT: U.S. AND SOVIET CASE STUDIES

This paper examines the measurement of the output of the Housing industry in real GNP accounts of the U.S., the Soviet Union, and selected OECD countries. These real GNP accounts make use of quite different Housing indexes, based on different types of data. This paper's major empirical finding is that the (measured) growth rate of Housing output can be extremely sensitive to the type of index used.
After reviewing the concept of housing quality, the paper presents U.S. and Soviet case studies. The BEA and the CIA do not use identical procedures to measure Housing output for the U.S. and the Soviet Union: the BEA measures many more aspects of housing quality improvements than the CIA does. This difference in the two agencies' procedures increases the growth rate of the US. Real Estate industry relative to the growth rate of the Soviet Housing industry. The idea behind the two case studies is to remeasure Housing output far the Soviet Union (U.S.) using an index that approximates the BEA (CIA) index. The purpose of these studies is the calculation of numerical magnitudes: to what degrees are the levels and growth rates of Housing sensitive to the type of index that is used. The calculations for the U.S. are useful because they show the important role of housing quality growth in the U.S., and because they make the magnitudes reported for the Soviet Union more credible. The Soviet case study provides numerical support for the proposition that the post-WWII growth rate of Soviet housing quality has been considerable and exceeds the growth rate implicit in the CIA output figures.     

NEXUS BETWEEN HOUSING AND THE MACRO ECONOMY: THE HONG KONG CASE

Abstract.  This paper shows that, consistent with the 'economic base' theory, exports drive domestic consumption and domestic investment, but housing appears to serve as an important link between exports and domestic expenditures. Focusing on the Hong Kong economy, which is a small open economy with a big population, we found that exports and interest rates drive housing prices over a long period, while housing prices in turn drive domestic expenditures.     

HOME COMPUTER USE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of home computers on child and adolescent outcomes by exploiting a voucher program in Romania. Our main results indicate that home computers have both positive and negative effects on the development of human capital. Children who won a voucher to purchase a computer had significantly lower school grades but show improved computer skills. There is also some evidence that winning a voucher increased cognitive skills, as measured by Raven's Progressive Matrices. We do not find much evidence for an effect on non-cognitive outcomes. Parental rules regarding homework and computer use attenuate the effects of computer ownership, suggesting that parental monitoring and supervision may be important mediating factors.     

SEGMENTED DEVELOPMENT AND THE WAY PROFITS GO: THE CASE OF INDONESIA*

In most developing countries profits account for a large proportion of national income, but their origin and use are widely divergent, related to the nature of ownership of the enterprise. Here an institutional classification of productive activities is developed and illustrated by the way profits go in Indonesia. By branch of industry they accrue to four categories of owners (foreign, public, private national incorporated, unincorporated). Next imputed labour income of the self-employed is separated in order to arrive at the functional distribution of income by sector, and lastly the destination (depreciation, interest, taxes, dividends, retained earnings) of each type of corporate capital income is shown. The estimates indicate a segmentation of activities, with regard to ownership as well as factor shares.     

THE HOUSING STOCK,HOUSING PRICES,AND USER COSTS: THE ROLES OF LOCATION,STRUCTURE, AND UNOBSERVED QUALITY

Which housing characteristics are important for understanding homeownership rates? How are housing characteristics priced in rental and owner-occupied markets? What can answers to these questions tell us about economic theories of homeownership? Using the English Housing Survey, we estimate a selection model of property allocations to the owner-occupied and rental sectors. Structural characteristics and unobserved quality are important for selection. Location is not. Accounting for selection is important for rent-to-price ratio estimates and explains some puzzling correlations between rent-to-price ratios and homeownership rates. These patterns are consistent with, among others, hypotheses of rental market contracting frictions related to housing maintenance.     

利率效果区域异质性、收入跨区 影响与房价溢出效应*

本文首先构建了理论分析框架,解释了中国不同城市间房价溢出效应、收入对房价的跨区影响,以及利率调整对不同城市房价的区域异质性影响。本文利用GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证,结果显示北京等一线城市的房价波动对其他城市具有较大的溢出性,而中西部城市的房价溢出性则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价波动不仅受本城市人均收入变动的影响,还在很大程度上受其他城市收入变动的影响,而中西部城市的房价则主要受本城市收入变动的影响。利率变动对一线城市和东部城市的房价影响则较大,而对中西部城市的房价影响有限。本文结论具有明确的政策含义,比如政府应通过稳定一线城市房价以达到稳定全国房价的目的,促进公共产品均等化,实行地区差异化的房地产政策等。通过利率调整来调控房价也是一个可行的政策选项。     

“两次金融危机”产生的原因与影响及对中国经济发展的启迪

分析1997年"亚洲金融危机"和2007年"世界金融危机"产生的原因及其异同点与"两次金融危机"对世界及其中国经济发展的影响.在此基础上,探讨"两次金融危机"对中国经济发展的启迪,为中国在今后经济发展中防范和应对金融危机提供科学依据.     

珠江三角洲经济发展、城市扩张与农田流失研究——以东莞市为例

珠江三角洲自改革开放的２０年来经历了巨大的发展,但也导致了城市的迅速扩张以及大量宝贵农田的流失。本文以珠江三角洲发展最快的城市之一的东莞为例探讨其经济发展、城市扩张以及农田流失的关系。研究发现了农田流失与不同阶段的经济发展有密切的关系。自进入９０年代以来,由于房地产的过热发展,造成了农田的加速流失,严重浪费土地资源。珠江三角洲的农田流失与乡镇企业的发展,地方自主权的扩大,香港的影响,交通条件的改善以及土地管理等一系列因素有关。     

THE IMPACT OF BODY WEIGHT ON OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY AND CAREER DEVELOPMENT

This article examines the relationship between individuals' weight and employment decisions over the life cycle. I estimate a dynamic stochastic model of individuals' annual choices of occupation, hours worked, and schooling. Evidence suggests that heavier individuals face higher switching costs when transitioning into white‐collar occupations, earn lower returns to experience in white‐collar occupations, and earn lower wages in socially intensive jobs. I simulate a hypothetical antidiscrimination policy treating obese workers as a protected class. Although such a policy would reduce gaps in occupational attainment, it would have little effect on the observed divergence in wages between obese and nonobese workers.     

沿海与内地区际不平衡性发展趋势研究

我国是一个区域发展不平衡的国家,这种不平衡性,主要表现在沿海与内地之间。进入新的世纪,我国经济社会发展已进入一个新阶段,并且国家已实施西部大开发战略,我国也已加入WTO,世界经济呈现调整走势,在这种新阶段和新的环境背景下,我国沿海与内地区域经济发展趋势将呈现新的特征。     

高速铁路网对我国区域旅游产业发展与布局的影响

高速铁路网的建成是交通条件的一种突变,也是旅游系统要素空间关系的一种突变,将对中国旅游业产生重大影响。根据时空替代机制,探讨了旅游系统的网格空间模型。结合对北京结点的探讨,高速铁路网给中国旅游产业发展与布局带来的影响包括以下几个方面:市场空间的放大与变形,更大范围的全面竞争,结点效应、端点效应与空格点效应,巨型中心城市崛起,结构调整与重新定位,跨越时间门槛等,并讨论了未来进一步研究的问题和方向。