‘Too Big to Fail and Too Big to Succeed': Accounting and Privatisation in the Prison Service of England and Wales

This paper is concerned with the challenges involved in the transformation of the prison into a performance‐oriented accounting entity. It examines the implication of private sector accounting and consulting expertise in redefining prison values and prison performance, and it discusses the consequences this had for definitions of risk and responsibility. The paper shows how the reforms promoted a systemic decentring of Prison Service accountability. Prison managers and regulators came to be inserted into hierarchies of expertise and credibility shaped by quests for commensuration and auditability. Further, the paper shows how the reform attempts brought about a situation of institutional lock‐in by contributing, as the outgoing HM Chief Inspector of Prisons Anne Owers has put it in 2010, to the creation of an inflated prison system ‘too big to fail, and too big to succeed'.     

"大而不倒"救助政策的理论和实证研究

由于大银行倒闭的巨大破坏性,最后贷款人在救助中通常奉行"大而不倒"政策。考虑到救助成本是银行资产规模的增函数,如果救助银行是最优的,那么救助任何一个更大的银行将也是最优的,这也意味着"大而不倒"救助政策在理论上的成立。在"大而不倒"政策下,规模和风险之间存在相互影响的关系。"大而不倒"救助政策影响银行的规模选择和资产风险的组合选择,导致银行追求变得更大且更具风险。     

Dynamic Financial System: Complexity,Fragility and Regulatory Principles

A financial system improves the allocation of real resources and enhances the performance of the production economy, but these benefits are offset in part by the risk of financial distress and the associated deadweight loss resulting from bankruptcy costs. We argue that “tiers” of financial claims increase complexity and fragility of the financial network. In equilibrium, the financial system grows relative to the real economy as the allocation of funds and risks becomes more sophisticated and as more financial claims are tiered. Growth is limited by the risk of a tiered, complex financial network and by the need to set aside additional capital as the financial sector grows. We discuss several sources of fragility in the financial system. We propose that regulators should limit the breaks in the system and do more to improve the resiliency of the network and less on individual issues that are only symptoms of fundamental problems of a network. We advocate a market based system of regulation in which market participants regulate each other, to a degree. In order for this to be feasible, the financial network must be organized according to three principles: trading transparency, competitive markets and competitive regulators, and incentive alignment of participants. Insofar as these regulatory approaches are successful in limiting network fragility, capital requirements can be reduced. Regulators should keep in mind this tradeoff between capital and regulation. With regard to regulatory policy, regulators should let the three principles be their guide in adapting to the evolving financial system rather than implementing narrowly conceived regulations that are quickly outmoded.     

国际金融体系的改革与发展趋势

国际金融危机的爆发,将现行国际金融体系存在的缺陷与弊端暴露得淋漓尽致,同时也凸显国际金融体系改革的必要性和紧迫性。在改革国际金融体系问题上,各经济体分歧的焦点主要集中于其在后金融危机时代国际金融体系之中的地位问题。充分认识国际金融体系的现状、特点与缺陷,深入剖析主要经济体关于国际金融体系改革的思路与分歧,有利于准确把握后金融危机时代国际金融体系变化的总体趋势、推进这一改革的进程。     

Too Big to Change: The Stabilizing Force of Reserve Currency Preferences in the International Monetary System

We empirically investigate whether reserve currency preferences have been a source of stability for the international monetary system. Our findings suggest that reserve-hoarding countries, especially the emerging/developing countries, tend to adopt a stabilizing diversification strategy in their reserve portfolio allocation, buying (selling) assets denominated in depreciated (appreciated) currency. The result is robust to both International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements measures of quantity changes of reserve shares. The stabilizing diversification strategy reveals the fact that reserve-hoarding countries may fall into a "dollar trap," and escaping from it may cause more valuation loss of their existing reserve portfolios.     

2000-2010年我国金融体系脆弱性的分析与测度

基于国家金融信息平台＂新华08＂从2000年到2010年我国金融监管当局和统计部门的数据,结合十年来我国实际经济运行状况和全球经济形势,在前人研究的基础上,本文对影响我国金融体系脆弱性水平的指标进行了选择,并且采用因子分析法做出了定量的测度。结果表明,十年来我国金融体系脆弱性水平有了长足的改善,其中流动性风险逐渐减少,信用风险和外汇风险不断波动。基于此,本文提出相关政策建议：防止突然的流动性反转、严控房地产市场的波动带来的信用风险、提高汇率风险管理水平和管理工具的操作水平以合理配置外汇资产。     

A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2004, 2005, 2006) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the UK banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors. JEL Classification Numbers C68, E4, E5, G11, G21 We are grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, European Central Bank, University of Oxford, University of Pireaus, 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London and especially an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions     

从金融外部性视角分析不良资产与金融脆弱性

不良资产一直是困扰我国银行业健康发展的重要问题，其负面影响放大了金融脆弱性的风险。大量的不良资产损害了商业银行的安全性原则，同时降低了商业银行资产的收益性，严重影响中国银行业的竞争力。在这个意义上，不良资产具有巨大的金融负外部性。当前，一方面要采取措施防止不良资产反弹，包括引入经济资本管理理念，加强行业风险研究，推行全面风险管理，加快现有不良资产的处置等；另一方面，为了消除其金融负外部性的影响，有必要通过建立明晰的银行业产权制度，增加金融激励，引进民营银行等手段促使外部性内部化，保障中国银行业的健康发展。     

从金融外部性视角分析不良资产与金融脆弱性

不良资产一直是困扰我国银行业健康发展的重要问题,其负面影响放大了金融脆弱性的风险。大量的不良资产损害了商业银行的安全性原则,同时降低了商业银行资产的收益性,严重影响中国银行业的竞争力。在这个意义上,不良资产具有巨大的金融负外部性。当前,一方面要采取措施防止不良资产反弹,包括引入经济资本管理理念,加强行业风险研究,推行全面风险管理,加快现有不良资产的处置等;另一方面,为了消除其金融负外部性的影响,有必要通过建立明晰的银行业产权制度,增加金融激励,引进民营银行等手段促使外部性内部化,保障中国银行业的健康发展。     

The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System*

In these excerpts from The Squam Lake Report, fifteen distinguished economists analyze where the global financial system failed, and how such failures might be prevented (or at least their damage better contained) in the future. Although there were many contributing factors to the crisis—including “agency” problems throughout the financial system and a bankruptcy code poorly suited for reorganizing financial firms—at the core of the problem is a potential conflict between the risk-taking proclivity of financial institutions and the interests of the economy at large that must be managed at least in part through more effective regulation. The Squam Lake Report provides a nonpartisan plan to transform the regulation of financial markets in ways designed to limit systemic risk while preserving—to the extent possible and prudent—the economies of scale and scope that justify the existence of today's large financial institutions. To reduce the risks that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements based on more effective assessments of the risks of bank assets and liabilities, as well as a new systemic regulator that should be part of the central bank. To reduce the costs of failure when it occurs, the authors propose that banks be required to create “living wills” laying out their plan to sell assets or shut down operations in the event of financial trouble. As part of that plan, regulators are urged to “aggressively encourage” banks to issue “contingent” debt capital securities that convert into equity.     

信用体系支持金融供给侧改革:基于补短板视角

分析信用体系建设与金融供给侧结构性改革的互动机理,从增加金融制度供给、优化信贷资源配置、提升金融供给能力、提高金融供给效率、改善金融生态环境等五个层面阐述信用体系建设与金融供给侧改革的作用关系.对广东以信用体系建设补齐普惠金融短板新进展新情况进行初步总结和探讨.最后,从提升普惠金融发展内生动力,加快金融信用基础设施建设,加大金融产品和服务创新,健全信用奖惩机制等方面提出相关建议.     

金融机构破产对现行《企业破产法》适用的挑战及因应

金融市场的发展与金融科技的创新加速了金融机构的更新迭代,优胜劣汰的市场竞争使得金融机构有序破产成为必然。然而我国现行《企业破产法》对金融机构破产的规定过于原则性,缺乏对其破产特殊性的考量,具体表现包括:在立法体系上缺乏协调性且对低位阶法律统领性较弱,在程序规制上缺乏可操作性,在主导机关上行政部门与司法部门存在权力冲突。建议我国在修订《企业破产法》时增设“金融机构破产”专章,针对金融机构及其破产的特质,完善金融机构破产的程序规制设计,优化行政与司法部门的权力划分和程序衔接机制,为我国金融机构的市场退出机制提供完善的法律依据,促进我国金融业的健康发展。     

The Impact of Warrants and Convertible Securities on the Systematic Risk of Common Equity

This paper addresses the relationship between the capital structure and the systematic risk of common equity for a firm whose capital structure includes convertible securities. Adding warrants to the capital structure reduces the systematic risk of equity, which is consistent with the fact that warrants dampen the volatility of equity by reducing the upside potential gains of existing stockholders. Expressions showing the impact of conversion features in debt and preferred stock on the systematic risk of equity are derived, and contrasted with the systematic risk effects of non-convertible debt or non-convertible preferred stock financing. Failure to incorporate conversion features may lead to serious errors in assessing the impact of financing alternatives on the risk of equity.     

券商改革离不开"大环境"

将证券公司的改革置于中国金融体系协调发展之中,应是改革券商的"治本"之策。就事论事必能隔靴搔痒,中国的人造冲浪馆里,永远造就不出图多尔级的天才来。     

Financial Distress Costs and Delayed Calls of Convertible Bonds: An Empirical Analysis

Theoretical analysis implies that optimal call policy would be to call the bonds as soon as the conversion value equals the call price. Empirical studies, however, report that firms appear to systematically delay the call and the difference between the conversion value and the call price is large at the time of the call. This study examines convertible bond calls between 1977 and 1993, with a view to explain the large difference between the conversion value and the call-price at the time of the call. A large majority of the firms calling the bonds have cash-flow incentive to call the bonds in that the after-tax interest payments are higher than the dividends on the converted shares. The large difference between the conversion value and the call price is positively related to the risk characteristics of the firm. Evidence seems to support the view that risk aversion and fear of potential financial distress may explain the large difference at the time of call between the conversion value and the call price.     

Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

财政三项改革下的高校预算管理

本文从财政三项支出改革对高校预算管理的影响出发,探讨了在新形势下如何加强和完善高校的预算管理工作。     

中国证券市场:新旧体制的对峙点

目前证券市场发展中所反映出来的一系列突出矛盾和问题，无不与国有企业改革问题有着最直接的关系，也可以说是国有企业改革问题在证券市场上的直接体现和翻版。我国证券市场能否继续规范与发展，已不再或主要不再取决于证券市场本身，而是取决于国有企业改革能否突破。由计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程，实际上就是一种政府还权于市场的过程。     

金融证券化与金融顺周期性

从金融发展的路径来看,经济货币化发展到一定阶段,便是金融证券化的蓬勃发展。在传统的金融体系中,银行信贷也是顺周期的,而金融证券化的蓬勃发展,则进一步放大了这种顺周期性。一方面,金融资产尤其是证券类金融资产总量的不断增加,使得金融市场的运行状况对于整个金融、经济运行起着越来越大的作用。另一方面,金融证券化的发展,对金融资产风险管理、金融体系流动性状况产生了重大影响,这些影响进一步促进了金融体系的顺周期性。因此,我们要将流动性管理的总量调节与健全宏观审慎政策框架结合起来,达到防范顺周期系统性风险积累的作用。