The Moderating Influence of Financial Market Development on the Relationship between Loan Guarantees for SMEs and Local Market Employment Rates

We empirically examine whether a major government intervention in the small firm credit market yields significantly better results in markets that are less financially developed. The government intervention that we investigate is Small Business Administration (SBA) guaranteed lending. After controlling for the appropriate cross‐sectional market characteristics, we find that SBA guaranteed lending has a significantly more positive impact on the average annual level of employment when the local market is relatively less financially developed. This result has important implications for public policy directives concerning where SBA guaranteed lending should be directed.     

Stopping Identity Theft

Each year, millions of consumers are victimized by identity theft—the practice of using the identity of another to obtain credit. After the identity thief defaults, lenders and credit bureaus attribute the default to the impersonated consumer. The article draws on the traditional loss allocation rules of the common law to suggest ways to reduce the incidence of identity theft. Lenders and credit bureaus do not at present have a sufficient incentive to avoid attributing the acts of identity thieves to consumers. The piece argues that consumers should have a claim against creditors and credit bureaus for including the transactions of identity thieves in reports on impersonated consumers. That would give the credit industry—the entity that can avoid the losses at the lowest cost—an incentive to take steps to prevent identity theft. Finally, the article briefly reviews current law and suggests some implications for public policy.     

Small Firm Finance, Credit Rationing, and the Impact of SBA-Guaranteed Lending on Local Economic Growth

Increasingly, policymakers look to the small business sector as a potential engine of economic growth. Policies to promote small businesses include tax relief, direct subsidies, and indirect subsidies through government lending programs. Encouraging lending to small business is the primary policy objective of the Small Business Administration (SBA) loan-guarantee program. Using a panel data set of SBA-guaranteed loans, we assess whether or not SBA-guaranteed lending has an observable impact on local economic performance. We find a positive and significant (although economically small) relationship between the relative levels of SBA-guaranteed lending in a local market and the future per capita income growth in that market.     

State intervention and the microcredit market: the role of business development services

We analyze in this paper how various forms of state intervention can impact microfinance institutions’ lending behavior. Using a simple model where entrepreneurs receive individual uncollateralized loans, we show that, not surprisingly, state intervention through the loan guarantee increases the number of entrepreneurs receiving a loan. However, after modeling business development services (BDS) provided by the microfinance institution, we show that the loan guarantee can have a counterproductive effect by reducing the number of entrepreneurs benefiting from such services. We therefore analyze an alternative policy: BDS subsidization. We show that if BDS are efficient enough and are targeted toward less performing borrowers, then—for fixed government expenditures—such subsidies do better in terms of financial inclusion than the loan guarantee. Moreover, we argue that—under similar conditions—BDS subsidization alone does better in terms of financial inclusion than a mix of policies.     

Interpersonal versus interbank lending networks: The role of intermediation in risk-sharing

Analyzing the interpersonal lending network of a Hungarian village in a disadvantaged region, we find strong intermediary activity and a tiered core-periphery structure. We show that the main motive behind lending is not altruism or profit-seeking, but risk-sharing which is the most accentuated in poor-to-poor and Roma-to-Roma relations. Comparing this informal lending market to a formal interbank market, we find more similarities than differences. In both markets, intermediation is a key element in risk-sharing and an effective tool to cope with liquidity risk. Regulatory and development policies should respect the existing institutions of risk-sharing.     

A Two-Headed Dragon for Monetary Policy

The current financial crisis has been the key global economic event since it unfolded in earnest in early August 2007. The Federal Reserve has taken aggressive actions—both conventional and unconventional—to counteract the economic and financial fallout. Among these actions have been a number of new special lending programs created under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, which had not been employed since the 1930s. Academics, policymakers, and the general public have shown great interest in the Federal Reserve's new programs. In this paper, I emphasize two medium-term risks that the Federal Reserve now faces as it continues to confront financial market turmoil and recession. The two medium-term risks are opposites of each other, a “two-headed dragon.” One is a Japanese-style deflation trap, and the other is a breakout of inflation like that seen during the 1970s. An explicit inflation target would help mitigate these very real risks.     

Microfinance,subsidies and local externalities

We analyse equilibrium borrowers’ effort and the cost of microcredit loans in the presence of moral hazard, project correlation and subsidies under group lending conditions. Our results show that under the assumption of endogenous effort, project correlation has significant effects on borrowers’ effort only when it is determined by asymmetric (positive or negative) shocks. These findings indicate that the well-known negative effect of within-group (symmetric) project correlation on group lending with joint liability disappears once endogenous effort is taken into account. We also analyse the effects of subsidised lending (and asymmetric correlation) on the relative convenience (in terms of borrowers’ effort) of the alternative (1) between group lending and individual lending with notional collateral and (2) among three different market structures of the microfinance industry.     

Some policy implications of bank participation in small business administration lending programs

This study examines the relationship of bank participation in SBA guaranteed lending programs to bank characteristics and market demographic characteristics. Band SBA lending is related to per capita income in the bank's market area, membership in a bank holding company, the loan-deposit ratio of the bank, the percent business loans of the bank, and the total assets of the bank. In markets of 50,000 or less, greater SBA lending is associated with lower per capita income levels. Accordingly, it appears that the economic development function of bank SBA lending is linked to a greater extent with market areas of less than 50,000.     

Release the constraints: Solving the problems of export financing in troublesome times

Export growth is seen by governments as being a key to economic recovery. In the United States, the Obama Administration pledged to double exports by the year 2015. To gain greater insights into exporting as an engine for growth, we look to export lenders to understand the contextual changes in export lending, as well as priorities in evaluating exporters. Findings from a study of export lenders on the lender referral list of the Export-Import Bank of the United States suggest that changes in the financial industry's structure over the last two decades, coupled with the economic recession, have motivated policy—at both the lending firm and governmental level—that hampers the ability of exporting to contribute to economic recovery. Further, the findings suggest that current lender policy encourages a focus on short-term returns rather than an exporter's long-term strategic position in the market. Lender preferences, in addition to governmental policies increasing regulation of the financial sector, place significant constraints on economic recovery. Thus, we call for key lender and governmental policy changes that could release industry constraints and unleash the export engine for economic recovery.     

我国开展融资融券业务的必要性及其对策

融资融券交易是世界股票市场广泛流行的交易方式之一,比较成熟的证券市场都允许股票信用交易,如美国、日本、韩国、西欧等国的证券交易法律都有信用交易的规定。融资融券交易之所以广泛流行,是因为这种交易对证券市场及其参与者都具有其积极的作用。尤其在中国更有其必要性。我国证券市场即将开展融资融券业务,在此情况下,研究和探讨开展融资融券业务的必要性及其对策极具现实意义。     

P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。     

The Economic Impact of the Small Business Administration's Intervention in the Small Firm Credit Market: A Review of the Research Literature*

The guaranteed lending programs of the Small Business Administration (SBA) are large and growing rapidly. The SBA's fiscal year 2009 Performance Budget calls for $28 billion in guaranteed loans for small businesses—a new record for the agency. Some critics of SBA programs suggest they do not help small businesses or overall economic performance. Other critics suggest that these programs unfairly benefit the financial institutions that participate in SBA's guaranteed lending programs. Whereas very little serious empirical evidence exists on whether the net economic impact of the SBA's guaranteed lending programs is positive or negative, a few recent studies provide some insight into the question. In general, they suggest a small positive impact of the SBA's programs on economic performance. However, the results are very tentative and further research is needed to declare a more definitive position. We provide a general overview of the SBA's guaranteed lending programs and summarize the results of these studies.     

民间借贷的制度缺失与法律规制

民间借贷作为正规金融的补充,对解决中小微企业的资金短缺起到了积极作用。由于立法滞后,法律依据不足,逐利、欺诈、违约、无序充斥着本不成熟的民间借贷市场,给金融稳定和经济安全带来了一系列负面效应,亟需法律规范和引导。当务之急是要构建法律体系,净化营业环境,完善准入标准,建立预警机制,尽快将民间借贷导入法制化轨道。     

Entwicklungen am Wohnimmobilienmarkt der USA seit der Subprime-Krise

Ten years after the subprime crisis, current house prices in the United States are slightly above the peak from the preceding boom. Also due to slower dynamics of new mortgage lending, the risk build-up seems to be rather contained so far. Structural changes arise with the market increasingly split along the different steps of mortgage lending. Non-banks are gaining higher market shares for origination and servicing of mortgages. Government-supported securitizations have a dominant market position. Potential weaknesses and risk channels of the new market structure can be identified, but a serious stress test has not happened yet.     

The effect of temporary devaluation on foreign investment: A trade-theoretic analysis and an application to Mexico

We develop a two-period model with foreign investment and international borrowing and lending. We find that temporary devaluation has no effect on contemporaneous foreign investment, but the effect on future foreign investment is positive via the working of the credit market. These findings are then tested for Mexico with regression analysis.     

The Question of Sustainability for Microfinance Institutions*

Microentrepreneurs have considerable difficulty accessing capital from mainstream financial institutions. One key reason is that the costs of information about the characteristics and risk levels of borrowers are high. Relationship‐based financing has been promoted as a potential solution to information asymmetry problems in the distribution of credit to small businesses. In this paper, we seek to better understand the implications for providers of “microfinance” in pursuing such a strategy. We discuss relationship‐based financing as practiced by microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the United States, analyze their lending process, and present a model for determining the break‐even price of a microcredit product. Comparing the model’s results with actual prices offered by existing institutions reveals that credit is generally being offered at a range of subsidized rates to microentrepreneurs. This means that MFIs have to raise additional resources from grants or other funds each year to sustain their operations as few are able to survive on the income generated from their lending and related operations. Such subsidization of credit has implications for the long‐term sustainability of institutions serving this market and can help explain why mainstream financial institutions have not directly funded microenterprises. We conclude with a discussion of the role of nonprofit organizations in small business credit markets, the impact of pricing on their potential sustainability and self‐sufficiency, and the implications for strategies to better structure the credit market for microbusinesses.     

Disentangling the Differences between Abusive and Predatory Lending: Professionals’ Perspectives

This study describes how mortgage professionals differentiate abusive from predatory lending. Data were analyzed qualitatively. The results indicate that some users of this term do not always adhere to a strict definition of predatory lending but rather use it as a term for any general mortgage abuse and mortgage fraud. Existing laws at the federal‐ and state‐level curtail abusive lending and promote fairness in the market place and they are highly enforced among depository financial institutions. However, unregulated nonfinancial institutions, mortgage brokers, and originators are still a primary source of predatory lending.     

Employment and location patterns of advanced services in non-urban Canada

British building societies have developed into major financial institutions with a major influence on both the housing and savings market. This article examines one facet of their influence: the pattern of mortgage lending within a city, the city of Glasgow. Variations in urban lending are examined and an assessment is made of how far lending patterns can be attributed to the structure of the building society industry and, among other influences, differences in society size and branch location.     

Bank lending,misleading signals,and the latin american debt crisis

This article explores the microfoundations of bank and borrower behavior in the Latin American debt crisis. In the model developed, less developed countries attract loans by signaling their ability and willingness to pay. Some of the signals are “coercive” because they indicate that if income targets are not met, income will be redistributed in order to honor debt obligations. Implicit in such coercive signaling is the borrower's expectation that redistribution will not damage economic productivity. A coercive signal is misleading when feedback effects on social stability and work effort—and thus on the ability to pay—are underestimated or ignored; in this case, it inaccurately predicts repayment prospects. We estimate two equations: (1) private lending to Latin borrowers as a function of our specified signals, and (2) the probability of payments problem as a function of the same set of signals. The results support our borrowing model: coercive signals do enhance lending, and at least one of these signals is misleading.     

浅析我国商业银行的贷款营销

目前,国内商业银行贷款营销的现状是贷款有效需求疲软,贷款营销认识普遍不全面,贷款投放谨慎。要辩证地看待买方市场下商业银行贷款营销的特点及其面临的难点,对市场进行细分,选择确定目标市场,做好商业银行贷款营销的定位。在强化贷款营销方面,要转变观念,强化贷款营销意识,树立现代银行营销理念;积极开发新的贷款品种,不断创造新的利润增长点;加强经济形势分析研究,认真开展市场调查;提高贷款营销队伍素质,强化贷款营销技术支持。