Prospect theory–based portfolio optimization: an empirical study and analysis using intelligent algorithms

The behaviourally based portfolio selection problem with investor’s loss aversion and risk aversion biases in portfolio choice under uncertainty is studied. The main results of this work are: developed heuristic approaches for the prospect theory model proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 as well as an empirical comparative analysis of this model and the index tracking model. The crucial assumption is that behavioural features of the prospect theory model provide better downside protection than traditional approaches to the portfolio selection problem. In this research the large-scale computational results for the prospect theory model have been obtained for real financial market data with up to 225 assets. Previously, as far as we are aware, only small laboratory tests (2–3 artificial assets) have been presented in the literature. In order to investigate empirically the performance of the behaviourally based model, a differential evolution algorithm and a genetic algorithm which are capable of dealing with a large universe of assets have been developed. Specific breeding and mutation, as well as normalization, have been implemented in the algorithms. A tabulated comparative analysis of the algorithms’ parameter choice is presented. The prospect theory model with the reference point being the index is compared to the index tracking model. A cardinality constraint has been implemented to the basic index tracking and the prospect theory models. The portfolio diversification benefit has been found. The aggressive behaviour in terms of returns of the prospect theory model with the reference point being the index leads to better performance of this model in a bullish market. However, it performed worse in a bearish market than the index tracking model. A tabulated comparative analysis of the performance of the two studied models is provided in this paper for in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The performance of the studied models has been tested out-of-sample in different conditions using simulation of the distribution of a growing market and simulation of the t-distribution with fat tails which characterises the dynamics of a decreasing or crisis market.     

South Korea’s finance–growth nexus: evidence from VARX analysis with financial crisis and openness

South Korea’s finance–growth nexus is empirically investigated by taking the elements of financial crisis and trade and financial openness through the newly developed approach of vector error-correction models (ECMs) with weakly exogenous I(1) variables (VARX). Considering financial development as a more complex phenomenon, we take into estimation two aspects of financial deepening that are measured by its size (private credit to GDP) and efficiency (private credit to total domestic deposits). The main findings are (1) financial efficiency contributes to accelerating economic growth; (2) the causality between economic growth and financial size is bilateral and negative; and (3) financial crisis is negative to both economic growth and financial development, whereas the growth-promoting effects of trade and financial openness are confirmed.     

Ownership,evergreening and crisis: an analysis of bank–firm relationships in India

Employing data on publicly listed firms for 1995–2012, the article examines the behaviour of bank lending and interest cost and how it evolved during the crisis. The evidence suggests that high-Non-performing Loans (NPL) main banks raised their lending and lowered lending rates during the crisis, especially to risky, low-profit firms, indicative of a flight from quality. A disaggregation of the possible reasons for the flight from quality provides evidence in favour of short-termism behaviour by banks. The analysis also provides evidence in support of tunnelling by risky firms, which became amplified during the crisis. The net effect of these developments was a perceptible reduction in overall employment.     

Value-at-risk capital requirement regulation,risk taking and asset allocation: a mean–variance analysis

In this study, the mean–variance framework is employed to analyze the impact of the Basel value-at-risk (VaR) market risk regulation on the institution's optimal investment policy, the stockholders’ welfare, as well as the tendency of the institution to change the risk profile of the held portfolio. It is shown that with the VaR regulation, the institution faces a new regulated capital market line, which induces resource allocation distortion in the economy. Surprisingly, only when a riskless asset is available does VaR regulation induce the institution to reduce risk. Otherwise, the regulation may induce higher risk, accompanied by asset allocation distortion. On the positive side, the regulation implies an upper bound on the risk the institution takes and it never induces the firm to select an inefficient portfolio. Moreover, when the riskless asset is available, tightening the regulation always increases the amount of maintained eligible capital and decreases risk.     

Base independence in the analysis of tax policy effects: with an application to Norway 1992–2004

The analysis contrasts results of two recently expounded microlevel data approaches to derive robust intertemporal characterizations of redistributional effects of income tax schedules; the fixed-income procedure of Kasten et al. (Tax progressivity and Income Inequality, Cambridge University Press, 1994) and the transplant-and-compare method of Dardanoni and Lambert (J. Public Econ. 86:99–122, 2002). Our study is normative in that the Blackorby and Donaldson (Can. J. Econ. 17:683–694, 1984) index of tax progressivity is employed. This enables contributions from vertical redistribution and horizontal inequity also to be assessed, using for the latter one classical measure and one no reranking measure. When the competing methodologies are applied to Norwegian data for 1992–2004, their respective strengths and weaknesses are revealed. The transplant-and-compare procedure is found to have a number of advantages.      

The relative importance of foreign and domestic disturbances for aggregate fluctuations in the open economy: Switzerland, 1964–1981

This paper studies whether the advent of floating exchange rates served to insulate Switzerland from economic shocks of foreign origin. It estimates a vector autoregression comprising four Swiss and three world aggregate time series and interprets the results in terms of the properties of the vector moving average representation implied by the estimates. The chief finding is that foreign shocks explain most of the systematic variation of the Swiss variables in both regimes.     

Exchange controls and interest rate determination with traded and non-traded assets: the Irish–United Kingdom experience

This paper is an empirical study of the effectiveness of exchange controls in recent Irish experience vis-à-vis the United Kingdom. Specifically, we examine the effects of domestic money market conditions on an array of Irish interest rates following the imposition of the controls, and the relative importance of covered British interest rates during the process of financial disintegration induced by these controls. Using time-varying parameter estimation, we find that the Central Bank gained only partial and temporary control over interest rates through domestic monetary channels. For most assets and liabilities, interest parity conditions were restored within six months after a policy change.     

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus is one of the more debated issues in the banking literature. However, while there is ample evidence concerning the relationship between competition and stability/fragility in different countries and regions, no prior study investigates this in the context of Islamic and conventional banks. We do this using data on both types of banks drawn from 16 developing economies over the period 2000–12. We measure the lack of competition using the Lerner index, and stability using both accounting-based measures, comprising the Z-score and the nonperforming loan ratio, and market-based measures, including Merton's distance to default. We employ panel vector autoregression and two-stage quantile regression to estimate the relationship. Our results lend support to the competition–fragility hypothesis in both Islamic and conventional banks. We also find the magnitude of the market power effect on stability is greater for conventional banks than Islamic banks. Lastly, banks in the median quantile of stability have a greater ability to reduce credit risk through gaining market power than banks in the lower and upper quantiles.     

Pricing Black–Scholes options with correlated interest rate risk and credit risk: an extension

This article provides a closed-form valuation formula for the Black–Scholes options subject to interest rate risk and credit risk. Not only does our model allow for the possible default of the option issuer prior to the option's maturity, but also considers the correlations among the option issuer's total assets, the underlying stock, and the default-free zero coupon bond. We further tailor-make a specific credit-linked option for hedging the default risk of the option issuer. The numerical results show that the default risk of the option issuer significantly reduces the option values, and the vulnerable option values may be remarkably overestimated in the case where the default can occur only at the maturity of the option.     

It’s been a pleasure doing business with you: a strategic analysis and critique of university change management

Universities have been undergoing major changes in scope of activities, structures, processes and relationships since late in the 20th century. This paper critically examines some of the dimensions of these changes, reflecting on the spectrum of environmental forces and internal resource pressures that have begun to transform many aspects of university governance core activities, stakeholder relationships and academic work. This Habermasian informed analysis and critique of major changes in university operations, reveals an array of globalised environmental disturbances that have directly impacted on university design archetypes including governance, accountability, decision-making and communication. The consequent impacts on the financial, educational and research subsystems are found to be extensive and have penetrated the interpretive schemes that constitute the university lifeworld. Commercial values are found to be usurping the previously dominant knowledge focussed values in universities. A re-engagement in discourse and bottom-up strategic management and processually based change orientation are offered as potential foundations for developing a bridge between the new managerialism and academics’ re-empowerment.     

Conditional Value-at-Risk,spectral risk measures and (non-)diversification in portfolio selection problems – A comparison with mean–variance analysis

We study portfolio selection under Conditional Value-at-Risk and, as its natural extension, spectral risk measures, and compare it with traditional mean–variance analysis. Unlike the previous literature that considers an investor’s mean-spectral risk preferences for the choice of optimal portfolios only implicitly, we explicitly model these preferences in the form of a so-called spectral utility function. Within this more general framework, spectral risk measures tend towards corner solutions. If a risk free asset exists, diversification is never optimal. Similarly, without a risk free asset, only limited diversification is obtained. The reason is that spectral risk measures are based on a regulatory concept of diversification that differs fundamentally from the reward-risk tradeoff underlying the mean–variance framework.     

Top management ties with board members: How they affect pay–performance sensitivity and IPO performance

This paper is the first study on the effects of pay–performance sensitivity (PPS) on the performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the presence of social ties and family ties of the top managers with board members. We find that both social ties and family ties increase PPS. In turn, PPS improves IPO performance. More importantly, greater PPS increases the positive effect of social ties on IPO performance whereas it reduces the negative effect of family ties.     

Costing for strategy development and analysis in an emerging industry: The Newcastle Upon Tyne Electric Supply Company, 1889–1914

This article examines the provision of strategic costing information in the context of the emergence and growth of the British electrical power industry and its pre-eminent exemplar, the Newcastle Upon Tyne Electric Supply Company (NESCo). A detailed case study of NESCo's costing for strategy development and analysis is presented. This research finds that NESCo's adoption of systematic, formal considerations of strategy and its use of costing for strategy development and analysis were related to a combination of three factors: first, the novelty and complexity of the electricity supply industry; second, the regulated environment of the electricity supply industry; and third, the ability and drive of key individuals. The implications of this research for contemporary studies of strategic management accounting are considered.     

RIP and the shift toward a monetary union: Looking for a “euro effect” by a structural break analysis with panel data

This paper aims to evaluate how the ex ante real interest rates of Euro area countries have been modified by the introduction of the euro. We use cointegration analysis with endogenous breaks in a panel data context. Our results show that the “euro effect” is significant in our sample and that after the introduction of the euro, the real interest parity (RIP) holds. This last conclusion is due to a decrease in the nominal interest rate differentials rather than to a reduction in goods and services price differentials and in the exchange rate volatility.     

The dynamics of “closure” amidst the construction of market,profession, empire and nationhood: An historical analysis of an Australian accounting association, 1886–1903

This paper argues that Weber's class-status-party model enables an in-depth understanding of the cross-border professionalization projects of accountants. Analysis of the activities of the Incorporated Institute of Accountants (VIC) from 1886 to 1903 shows that (a) the concept of monopolistic closure is imprecise; and (b) its activities were significantly shaped by multiple and changing divisions within the association, between it and competing colonial and imperial associations, the actions of ‘autonomous’ state agencies and wider political and communal tensions. Specifically, imperial discourses and institutions, which mutated when transplanted from the metropolitan centre to the penal (then productive) periphery, were material.