Liquidity and Credit Risk

We develop a structural bond valuation model to simultaneously capture liquidity and credit risk. Our model implies that renegotiation in financial distress is influenced by the illiquidity of the market for distressed debt. As default becomes more likely, the components of bond yield spreads attributable to illiquidity increase. When we consider finite maturity debt, we find decreasing and convex term structures of liquidity spreads. Using bond price data spanning 15 years, we find evidence of a positive correlation between the illiquidity and default components of yield spreads as well as support for downward‐sloping term structures of liquidity spreads.     

商业银行经营中的流动性、流动性风险及其管理

一、流动性、流动性风险与银行挤兑 商业银行的流动性是指银行能够随时满足存款者的提现需求和借款者的正当贷款需求的能力.流动性是银行的生命线,也是整个金融体系及至整个经济体系对流动性需求的保证.盈利性和流动性是银行风险管理首先要解决的一对矛盾.如果银行持有大量的高流动性资产,当然可以减少流动性风险,但是同时也降低了银行的收益.     

流动性剩余、流动性风险与银行业系统性风险测量

全球性金融危机过后,世界范围内的政策制定者、经济学家以及时评人士对加强金融市场监管、防范系统性风险基本达成共识。本文从流动性角度出发,对我国商业银行部门系统性风险进行了度量,同时衡量了我国上市银行的系统重要性程度。通过对商业银行个体的资产负债表数据分析,本文提出一种基于系统相对流动性剩余的概率分布来度量流动性风险,以及基于绝对流动性剩余的方差贡献度来衡量银行系统重要性程度的方法,并对我国上市银行系统性风险进行了实证分析。本文的研究结果表明,从流动性风险视角来看,部分银行对我国商业银行体系的系统风险贡献程度较高。     

Portfolio Insurance with Liquidity Risk

This paper studies a portfolio insurance problem with liquidity risk. We consider an investor who wants to maximize the expected growth rate of wealth in a low liquid market. The investor can trade assets only at random times and his wealth must not fall below a predetermined floor. We find the optimal expected growth rate and an optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is closely related with a traditional constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy. Also we show that the same strategy maximizes the growth rate almost surely. Further we study the floor effect on the growth rate.     

Measuring Liquidity Mismatch in the Banking Sector

This paper constructs a liquidity mismatch index (LMI) to gauge the mismatch between the market liquidity of assets and the funding liquidity of liabilities, for 2,882 bank holding companies over 2002 to 2014. The aggregate LMI decreases from +$4 trillion precrisis to ?$6 trillion in 2008. We conduct an LMI stress test revealing the fragility of the banking system in early 2007. Moreover, LMI predicts a bank's stock market crash probability and borrowing decisions from the government during the financial crisis. The LMI is therefore informative about both individual bank liquidity and the liquidity risk of the entire banking system.     

Private Equity Performance and Liquidity Risk

Private equity has traditionally been thought to provide diversification benefits. However, these benefits may be lower than anticipated as we find that private equity suffers from significant exposure to the same liquidity risk factor as public equity and other alternative asset classes. The unconditional liquidity risk premium is about 3% annually and, in a four‐factor model, the inclusion of this liquidity risk premium reduces alpha to zero. In addition, we provide evidence that the link between private equity returns and overall market liquidity occurs via a funding liquidity channel.     

商业银行流动性风险管理

美国次贷危机的爆发使之前宽松的资金环境突然间收紧,流动性风险迅速显现.一时间,流动性风险迅速成为了各家商业银行、其他金融机构和中央银行所面临的难题.     

Municipal Bond Liquidity and Default Risk

This paper examines the pricing of municipal bonds. I use three distinct, complementary approaches to decompose municipal bond spreads into default and liquidity components, and find that default risk accounts for 74% to 84% of the average spread after adjusting for tax‐exempt status. The first approach estimates the liquidity component using transaction data, the second measures the default component with credit default swap data, and the third is a quasi‐natural experiment that estimates changes in default risk around pre‐refunding events. The price of default risk is high given the rare incidence of municipal default and implies a high risk premium.     

Liquidity Risk and Venture Capital Finance

This article provides theory and evidence in support of the proposition that venture capitalists adjust their investment decisions according to liquidity conditions on IPO exit markets. We refer to technological risk as a choice variable in terms of the characteristics of the entrepreneurial firm in which the venture capitalist invests, and liquidity risk as the current and expected future external exit market conditions. We show that in times of expected illiquidity of exit markets (high liquidity risk), venture capitalists invest proportionately more in new high-tech and early-stage projects (high technology risk) in order to postpone exit requirements. When exit markets are liquid, venture capitalists rush to exit by investing more in later-stage projects. We further provide complementary evidence that shows that conditions of low liquidity risk give rise to less syndication. Our theory and supporting empirical results facilitate a unifying theme that links related research on illiquidity in private equity.     

开放式基金的流动性风险与对策

2000年10月12日,在中国封闭式证券投资基金运作两年多之后,中国证监会正式推出<开放式证券投资基金试点办法>,这不仅大大促进了国内基金业向国际化发展的进程,同时也将成为中国基金市场发展史的重要里程碑.但是应当看到,开放式基金在我国是一个新事物,它能否正常运营并发挥它对市场应有的作用,还有很多问题值得探讨.其中,由于开放式基金允许自由赎回基金,因此对它的流动性风险的管理就显得尤为重要.     

基于主成分分析的股票流动性的度量

流动性是一个多维变量,因此要度量股票的流动性,必须采用一种多维的计量方法.以上证180指数成分股中的30只股票为研究样本,利用高频数据,运用主成分分析方法获得了一种新的流动性度量方法,该方法能够更好地描述中国股市的流动性.     

Rollover Risk,Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation

I study rollover risk in wholesale funding markets when intermediaries hold liquidity ex ante and fire sales may occur ex post. Multiple equilibria exist in a global rollover game: intermediate liquidity holdings support equilibria with both positive and zero expected liquidation. A simple uniqueness refinement pins down the private liquidity choice, which balances the forgone expected return on investment with reduced fragility and costly liquidation. Due to fire sales, liquidity holdings are strategic substitutes. Intermediaries free ride on the holdings of other intermediaries, causing excessive liquidation. To internalize the systemic nature of liquidity, a macroprudential authority imposes liquidity buffers.     

中国股市流动性风险测度研究

引言 证券的流动性是指证券的变现能力。从证券流动性的概念来看，其本质是指在现在价位不变的情况下或在价位波动较小的情况下，能够卖出证券的数量或金额，如果能够卖出的数量或金额较大则该证券的流动性较好。从另外一个角度来看，流动性还指在现在价位不变或在价位波动较小……     

银行流动性风险监管理念的最新进展

为了反映金融市场的最新发展和从市场动荡中获取教训,巴塞尔银行监管委员会对其2000年发布的<银行机构流动性管理的稳健做法>进行了重新审视,于2008年9月发布了<稳健的流动性风险管理和监管原则>.其从独立性、透明度两方面强调了监管机构良好的治理结构对构建强有力的银行流动性风险框架的重要性;明确银行公司治理中流动性风险管理利益攸关各方的职责:重构流动性风险管理规则框架.我国应从改进流动性指标、强化流动性风险的治理、体现激励相容等角度吸收和借鉴国际银行流动性风险监管的先进经验和做法,完善我国流动性风险监管体系.     

Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Arbitrage Capital

We develop a continuous‐time model of liquidity provision in which hedgers can trade multiple risky assets with arbitrageurs. Arbitrageurs have constant relative risk‐aversion (CRRA) utility, while hedgers' asset demand is independent of wealth. An increase in hedgers' risk aversion can make arbitrageurs endogenously more risk‐averse. Because arbitrageurs generate endogenous risk, an increase in their wealth or a reduction in their CRRA coefficient can raise risk premia despite Sharpe ratios declining. Arbitrageur wealth is a priced risk factor because assets held by arbitrageurs offer high expected returns but suffer the most when wealth drops. Aggregate illiquidity, which declines in wealth, captures that factor.     

后金融危机时代商业银行流动性风险管理

流动性风险使得诸多商业银行在本次全球金融危机中纷纷倒下,本文在指出商业银行流动性风险管理的重要性后,将商业银行流动性风险分为资产流动性风险和融资流动性风险,并就如何做好商业银行流动性风险管理提出了建议。     

中小银行流动性风险管理

随着全球性金融危机爆发,国内房地产市场由热转冷,各地政府纷纷出手救市,央行货币政策似有放松之意,中小银行上半年流动性趋紧现象有所缓解,但流动性风险管理难度加大问题任然存在.流动性风险特有的突发性,更象令人胆寒的心肌梗塞,瞬间造成心脏供血机能丧失,假若自身融资能力低下、外部救助又迟缓或不力,极易导致中小银行"猝死",甚至演变成全局性的金融动荡.     

银行信贷资产证券化的潜在流动性风险与监管研究

本文通过构建理论模型研究了银行信贷资产证券化面临的潜在风险,主要是银行"发起—分销"模式下潜在的流动性风险。研究表明,对于单个银行而言,"发起—分销"模式并未起到控制和降低风险的作用,只是通过增加扣减比例的方式来对冲风险,而抵押贷款证券则面临未来价格可能更大幅度的下跌,风险仍潜藏在银行间市场;对于银行间市场而言,部分银行的流动性不足会抑制整个市场所提供的流动性,尤其是当抵押贷款证券的市场价格低于银行最初预期的平均收益水平时,那些经营稳健的银行也会受到金融传染的影响。     

流动性风险的稳健管理与监管准则

为了反映全球金融市场的最新发展,总结2007年金融市场动荡的经验教训,巴塞尔银行监管委员会对其2000年发布的《银行机构流动性管理的稳健操作》进行了重大调整。调整后的报告认为有效的流动性风险管理至关重要,有助于银行始终拥有满足现金流需要的能力,减少对金融系统所产生的负面影响;而金融市场在过去十年间的发展加剧了流动性风险及其管理的复杂性,国际清算银行在此基础上从流动性风险的治理、计量和管理,银行信息的公开披露、监管者的职责等几个方面提出了十七条流动性风险管理和监管的准则。