新兴金融市场的发展

大量新兴国家所采取的积极的债务管理措施使得本国资产负债表的波动性显著降低,节约了为数可观的债务成本。本文引用两个典型例子:巴西采取减少其与美元相关的负债的政策,使得这部分负债的规模从2002年底占净负债总额的30％下降到2004年7月的15％。墨西哥实施富有创意的全球债券债务交换的方案,以期利用全球债券收益率曲线的特性来节约债务成本。     

论新兴市场的潜在威胁(英文)

随着全球经济的发展,越来越多的跨国公司开始步入新兴市场。然而,事实上,大多数公司都没有取得他们理想中的成功。相反,在新兴市场中,他们将面临着更复杂的问题和风险。本文旨在分析新兴市场中存在的潜在威胁。     

The Momentum Effect in Latin American Emerging Markets

We find that momentum strategies yield profits in Latin American emerging markets. Both stock type and country play a major role in explaining the momentum effect in these markets, but stock type is much more important. For risk-averse investors, winner portfolios stochastically dominate loser portfolios in these markets, implying that there are no asset-pricing models consistent with risk-averse investors that can rationalize the momentum effect. The results obtained via the bootstrap procedure without replacement also uphold this conclusion.     

Idiosyncratic Risk in Emerging Markets

In this study, I examine the properties and portfolio management implications of value‐weighted idiosyncratic volatility in 24 emerging markets. This paper provides evidence against the view that the rise of idiosyncratic risk is a global phenomenon. Furthermore, specific and market risks jointly predict market returns as there is a negative (positive) relation between idiosyncratic (market) risk and subsequent stock returns. Idiosyncratic volatility is the most important component of tracking error volatility, and it does not exhibit either an upward or a downward trend. Thus, investors do not have to increase, on average, the number of stocks they hold to keep the active risk constant.     

Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.     

Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets

David L. Stulb, joint leader of Ernst ＆ Young＇s global Fraud Investigations ＆ Dispute Servicespractice, said,“Major fraud and corruption scandals attract headlines around the world, dramatically affecting corporate and market values. With the fear of fraud greatest in emerging markets, and with 20% of all companies having been victims of fraud, the consequences for those companies that continue to underestimate the risk could be severe.” at the launch of the 9th Global Fraud Survey, Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets.     

The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets

The low correlation between returns in emerging equity marketsand industrial equity markets implies that the global investorwould benefit from diversification in emerging markets. Thisarticle explores the sensitivity of the emerging-market returnsto measures of global economic risk. When these traditionalmeasures of risk are used, the emerging markets have littleor no sensitivity. This finding is consistent with these markets'being segmented from world capital markets. However, the correlationbetween the emerging-market returns and the risk factors appearsto be changing over time.     

The Discount Rate in Emerging Markets: A Guide

There is considerable controversy about the correct discount (or "hurdle") rate to use when performing valuations of investments in real assets in emerging markets. The topic is particularly relevant because of the growing need to evaluate privatizations, direct private acquisitions, and greenfield investments in new productive facilities throughout the world.
This article argues that the traditional practitioners' approach of building a country risk premium into the discount rate is generally inappropriate, mainly because country risk is not the same for all projects nor is it totally systematic. Moreover, there is no reason for the discount rate to be closely related to the spread on the government bonds of the country concerned. The author also points out that, in determining the appropriate discount rate, what is important is not the segmentation of the market, but the extent to which the investor is locally or globally diversified. The article accordingly reviews a selected group of models for calculating discount rates for both segmented and integrated markets. Adjustments to the valuation procedure are also suggested for cases in which investors are not well diversified or the investment is illiquid.     

Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets

Equity market liberalizations, if effective, lead to important changes in both the financial and real sectors as the economy becomes integrated into world capital markets. The study of market integration is complicated because one can liberalize in many ways and many countries have taken different routes. To study the effectiveness of particular liberalization policies, the sequencing of liberalizations, and the impact on the real economy, systematic methods must be developed to date the liberalization of emerging equity markets. We provide a synthesis of the current methods and show the impact of liberalization on the real sector.     

Emerging Derivatives Markets: The Case of Chile

We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, an emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights from voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in an emerging market context.     

Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets

This article investigates the behavior of stock returns in thetwenty stock markets represented in the International FinanceCorporation's Emerging Markets Data Base. The aim is to testfor return anomalies and predictability. Using statistical methodologiesthat have identified seasonal and size-based return differences,as well as general return predictability in industrial markets,we find that these emerging markets display few of the sameanomalies. In particular, we find limited evidence of turn-of-the-tax-yeareffects and small-firm effects. We do find, however, evidenceof return predictability.     

Financial Reforms and Emerging Markets

In this discussion chapter, the author summarizes the main features of recent financial developments in emerging markets, including market development, governance and regulatory issues. In light of the financial crises that have taken place in those markets, emphasis is made on the actual path of reforms, main policy lessons and issues of concern from the country cases presented in the panel.     

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

This paper focuses on the investment behavior of pension funds in developed and emerging market countries. First, it analyzes the main determinants of the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries. Second, it assesses how pension funds in emerging markets have contributed to the development of local securities markets. Third, it analyzes the determinants of pension funds' investment performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of why the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries is likely to increase and what the challenges faced by pension funds in emerging markets are.     

IFRS Adoption in Emerging Markets: The Case of Jordan

The aim of this study is to research the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Jordan, which was one of the first Middle Eastern emerging economies to adopt IFRS. The paper investigates the related factors that pressure and prevent such adoption over time, and illustrates the developmental aspects of such adoption. An interpretive methodology is employed, and perceptions of the study's participants are analysed regarding the adoption of IFRS in Jordan, which is an area that is under researched. Semi‐structured interviews were undertaken to collect Jordanian experts’ perceptions. Based on the empirical data analysis and prior theoretical and empirical literature, an adoption model was developed, which can serve future studies as well. The model illustrates the paradox of accounting changes in emerging economies, in which the actual conditions that pressure IFRS adoption are also the conditions that prevent full adoption. The model also provides an explanation of the implementation process of IFRS in emerging economies at both country and corporation levels. It combines practical features and related theories in an integrative model seeking to explain the phenomenon of IFRS as a new accounting regulation change.     

Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets

In this paper we use cointegration tests to examine the long-run diversification potential of 13 emerging capital markets. The Johansen [18] and Johansen and Juselius [19] cointegration procedures are applied to the U.S. and 13 emerging capital markets in three geographical regions of the world. None of the three regions examined possesses cointegrated markets. The lack of cointegration indicates that the correlation between returns from each market is independent of the investment horizon Return correlations using weekly data correspond to the long-run investment horizon correlation. Correlations among the returns from these countries are low on average and occasionally negative. The apparent independence of markets within these three emerging regions suggests that diversification across these countries is effective.     

ESG Investing in Emerging and Frontier Markets

The authors discuss the benefits of considering material environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors when investing in emerging and frontier markets. Companies that operate in these markets face a myriad of operating challenges, and management teams that respond to such challenges effectively can achieve superior financial performance over time. They are able to grow faster, achieve higher profitability, reduce their cost of capital, and manage exogenous risks better than their peers. For investment managers, integrating sustainability into the analysis process provides a differentiated lens to identify companies that possess strong competitive advantages that can drive value creation over time. At the same time, it can help investment managers avoid companies that have embedded risks in their business model or operations that may not be entirely visible to the market. Finally, given the early‐stage nature of many of these markets and the sometimes uneven understanding of sustainability issues at a company level, the authors argue that active ownership can be an important driver of alpha generation by fund managers. Engaging constructively with board members and management teams to improve a company's ESG profile can help drive operational improvements, strengthen the risk management function, and upgrade investors’ perception of the quality of the management team.     

Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets

We propose a cross-sectional time-series model to assess the impact of market liberalizations in emerging equity markets on the cost of capital, volatility, beta, and correlation with world market returns. Liberalizations are defined by regulatory changes, the introduction of depositary receipts and country funds, and structural breaks in equity capital flows to the emerging markets. We control for other economic events that might confound the impact of foreign speculators on local equity markets. Across a range of specifications, the cost of capital always decreases after a capital market liberalization with the effect varying between 5 and 75 basis points.