股指期货创新中的投资者保护探讨

股指期货的推出,在交易机制和违规行为等方面,均对投资者产生了一定影响,因此股指期货创新中的投资者保护应成为其应有之义。本文认为股指期货在杠杆交易、双向交易和到期日制度方面会对投资者造成一定影响;另外在信息敏感性和跨市场联动性等方面也会对投资者造成影响。当前股指期货市场对投资者保护主要从投资者适当性,风险揭示和保护基金三方面着力,有待扩展和深化。本文在借鉴美国、日本、香港等成熟股指期货市场投资者保护立法及实践的基础上,提出了完善我国股指期货投资者保护的一些建议。     

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Earnings Information?

Abstract:   The purpose of this study is to investigate how different types of investors react to new earnings information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more likely to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise and that they are biased towards buying after the disclosure of an annual report. Large investors show behaviour opposite to that of the majority of investors. We consider several possible explanations for this heterogeneous investor behaviour, of which differences in investor overconfidence emerges as the strongest candidate.     

Advertising,investor attention,and stock prices: Evidence from a natural experiment

I test whether advertising affects stock prices through an investor attention channel. I use corporate sponsorships of college football bowl games as a natural experiment that provides variation in advertising exposure that is unrelated to firm fundamentals. Sponsoring firms' stocks experience large increases in investor attention, abnormally high turnover, and temporary price pressure that is related to bowl games' TV‐ratings and score differentials. Retail investors are net buyers of sponsors' stocks, whereas institutional investors initially remain neutral and then start selling, ultimately driving a reversal toward fundamental values. These findings shed light on who wins/loses when advertising attracts investor attention.     

新证券法下“投资者适当性义务”的实现路径——从“规则监管”到“原则监管”的转变

新证券法有关“投资者适当性义务”的规定反映了近年来国际上重视金融消费者保护的“行为监管”趋势。行为监管要求将原有单纯满足监管规范要件的“形式合规”转向以实现金融消费者保护为结果目标的“实质合规”,由此金融消费者保护方式呈现出从“规则监管”向“原则监管”的转向。同样地,本次修法将以往中国证监会具体、细化的投资者适当性规则上升为抽象的法定义务,这就决定了券商在销售证券或者提供服务的过程中不能完全以所谓的“程序合规”作为其完成“投资者适当性义务”的标准,而应以“程序合规+实质合规”来证明其对“投资者适当性义务”要求的满足。新证券法在投资者保护方面呈现出一种明显的“以结果为导向”的原则监管新思路。     

股票市场投资者结构国际比较研究

本文梳理了A股市场与相关国家(地区)股市投资者结构的现状,探讨这些市场投资者结构的演变路径、以及促成这种演变的主要因素。基于境外主要市场投资者结构演变及政策措施的经验教训,本文提出改进A股市场相关制度的六点政策建议:第一,从更宏观的政策层面入手,改进上市公司结构,增厚上市公司利润,以增进A股市场的长期投资价值;第二,着力培育和鼓励大体量资金机构进入股市;第三,有必要继续扩大海外合格机构投资者资金规模;第四,完善金融产品供应,适当放宽交易规则约束,使机构投资者有更多工具和交易方式参与市场交易;第五,在个人投资者方面,监管部门需要适度转变监管理念,进而改进相关交易规则,鼓励个人投资者以合理方式理性参与股市;第六,创新税收激励机制,合理引导个人投资者。     

投资者非理性行为是动量效应产生的原因吗?——来自互联网金融论坛的证据

动量效应是行为金融研究中重要的市场异象,然而目前各市场因素并不能完全解释其来源。在大数据背景下,本文通过挖掘金融论坛的结构化和非结构化数据,深入研究投资者微观行为与动量效应的关系,发现市值规模、账面市值比和行业等市场因素仅能解释约30%的动量效应,而基于行为金融的投资者非理性因素——投资者情绪、投资者关注度和情绪传播度,都是动量效应形成的重要因素,在市场因素的基础上还能继续解释35%左右的动量效应。研究结论对理解动量效应的形成机制和投资实践中网络信息的价值有重要意义。     

海外投资者保护基金制度及借鉴

保护投资者尤其是保护中小投资者,是证券市场监管的核心内容,也是证券市场健康运行的基础.国际上,证券投资者保护机制已经有30多年的运行经验,很多方面值得我们借鉴.本文从法律框架、组织模式、资金来源、赔偿机制、运作情况等方面,对国际上主要国家和地区的证券投资者保护基金制度进行了比较,并结合我国证券市场特征,对我国证券投资者保护制度的建立和完善提出若干建议.     

Does Trading Improve Individual Investor Performance?

From 52,649 accounts and 10,615,117 transaction records obtained from a renowned brokerage house in Taiwan we find that individual investors purchase 73.4% and sell 64.5% of their stock portfolios each month. This is more than ten times the statistics for their U.S. counterparts. In general, individual investors have positive abnormal returns from factor-based models. However, they would have earned higher returns from following a buy-and-hold strategy. We find a U-shaped rather than a monotonic turnover and performance relation. The results do not support the overconfidence argument proposed by Barber and Odean (2000, 2001) nor does the rational model of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980). We find that investors with large portfolio values tend to be informed traders whose excess trading does create performance value. We also investigate whether men are more overconfident than women and find that even though men trade more excessively than women, men's performance measures are not dramatically lower than women's. Specifically, the own-benchmark adjusted gross return for men is higher than that for women. The regression results indicate that electronic traders rather than men are overconfident.     

Stock market investors' use of stop losses and the disposition effect

The disposition effect is an investment bias where investors hold stocks at a loss longer than stocks at a gain. This bias is associated with poorer investment performance and exhibited to a greater extent by investors with less experience and less sophistication. A method of managing susceptibility to the bias is through use of stop losses. Using the trading records of UK stock market individual investors from 2006 to 2009, this paper shows that stop losses used as part of investment decisions are an effective tool for inoculating against the disposition effect. We also show that investors who use stop losses have less experience and that, when not using stop losses, these investors are more reluctant to realise losses than other investors.     

投资法人制度的导入与投资者保护——以日本法为借鉴

证券投资基金根据组织形式的不同,可以分为公司型基金和契约型基金。目前,公司型基金在我国的立法和实践中尚未得到认可。但从整个国际趋势来看,公司型基金是一种不可或缺的主要基金组织形式,其在美国、英国、日本等国家都有了迅速而健全的发展。其中日本在1998年导入被称为证券投资法人的公司型投资基金制度,2000年又将其修改为投资法人制度,弥补了单一基金形式的不足,极大地促进了基金品种的创新,更全面地保护了投资者的利益。投资法人制度与其原有的契约型投资基金制度共同推动着日本投资基金业的发展。本文在考察分析日本投资法人制度的基础上,探讨该制度对当前我国《证券投资基金法》修改的借鉴意义以及在投资者保护方面的积极作用。     

投资者关注与股价崩盘风险:抑制还是加剧?

本文以2010—2017年中国A股上市公司为样本,考察了投资者关注影响股价崩盘风险的客观表现和传导路径。研究发现,投资者关注度的提高会显著加剧下一期的股价崩盘风险,存在“关注度的崩盘效应”;分组检验发现,关注度的崩盘效应仅在机构持股比例低的公司和市场处于牛市状态下存在;路径检验发现,投资者关注不存在信息路径,没有改善公司信息透明度,但存在部分的情绪路径,提高了股价同步性和投资者情绪,从而加剧了股价崩盘风险。建议监管部门重视投资者关注对股价带来的冲击,通过进一步提高机构者持股比例,缓解情绪过热导致的定价错误程度,降低股价崩盘风险。     

Difference of opinion among investors versus analysts

We construct an investor-based measure of differences of opinion (DO) to investigate the different implications of DO between retail investors (DOR), institutional investors (DOI), and analysts (DOA) on asset pricing. Using Chinese stock data, we find that three DO measures (DOR, DOI, and DOI) are negatively related to future returns; DOI’s ability to predict returns can be partly explained by DOR and DOA, whereas DOR contains incremental information not available from DOI and DOA. DOR is more strongly associated with the severe overvaluation caused by retail investors’ optimism than DOI or DOA, emphasising the specific role of retail investors in China’s market. We further show that DOI and DOA are the results of the differences in their information sets, whereas DOR are the results of different interpretations of public information.     

标准的投资者保护制度和替代性投资者保护制度：一个概念性分析框架

基于在标准的投资者保护制度和替代性投资者保护制度之间做出的区分,本文提出了一个概念性分析框架,并对国有股权的制度安排在中国股票市场发展中的作用进行了初步的解释。标准的投资者保护制度——市场、法律和管制——固然重要,但是对于转轨国家而言,由于缺乏支撑标准的投资者保护制度运转的制度资源,利用替代性的投资者保护制度对于股票市场的早期发展就是至关重要的。     

Analyst Tipping: Additional Evidence

We examine whether analysts tip investors during investor conferences. We find that conference‐day abnormal returns of a presenting company are about 0.6% higher when the conference is hosted by an analyst who will initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation than when the conference is hosted by non‐initiating analysts. Furthermore, conference‐day abnormal returns of the presenting company amount to half of the price run‐up during the 20 trading days prior to the Buy initiation. Finally, there is a statistically and economically significant price run‐up prior to a Sell initiation (by about –0.7%) when the analyst who will initiate coverage with a Sell recommendation hosts a conference but does not invite the company to present. Our findings collectively suggest that analysts, rather than companies, tip select investors about upcoming initiations during conferences.     

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the relation between investor sentiment and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests. The sample period extends from July 1997 to June 2005. In the VAR models, stock portfolio returns and investor sentiment proxies are used as endogenous variables. Two dummy variables accounting for natural and economic crises are used as exogenous variables. The analysis results suggest that, excepting shares of equity issues in aggregate issues, stock portfolio returns seem to affect all investor sentiment proxies, namely closed-end fund discount, mutual fund flows, odd-lot sales-to-purchases ratio, and repo holdings of mutual funds. Investor sentiment does not appear to forecast future stock returns; only the turnover ratio of the stock market seems to have forecasting potential.     

投资者情绪与中国股票市场过度波动

本文分析中国投资者分类情绪及信心变化与中国股票市场波动的同期及动态影响。实证结果表明:就同期而言,中国投资者对国内经济基本面的信心变化以及中国股票市场波动,将影响投资者对国际经济金融环境的信心;就中长期而言,中国投资者情绪中关于国内经济基本面和国内经济政策的信心变化是影响中国股票市场过度波动的重要原因;中国投资者关于国际经济金融环境的信心深受国内经济基本面的信心变化的影响,中国投资者对A股市场估值的判断,受投资者对A股市场的股票估值信心以及国内经济基本面信心变化影响较大。     

中国股市个体投资者羊群行为影响因素分析

中国股市投资者表现出显著的羊群行为,心理因素是投资者羊群行为产生的主要原因,情绪、股票历史收益率和股票规模等也是影响投资者行为的重要因素。本文利用我国股市个体投资者交易数据,对影响投资者羊群行为的因素进行了实证研究,探讨了我国股市个体投资者羊群行为的特征。     

Aggregate insider trading and market returns: The role of transparency

Using a sample of countries that require timely disclosures of insider trades, I investigate the effect of country‐level institutions that promote transparency on the extent to which aggregate insider trades predict market returns. I find that financial information transparency mitigates the predictive content of aggregate insider trades when markets are more likely to deviate from fundamentals (i.e., during market fads), and when there is greater co‐movement in stock prices. In contrast, there is some evidence that governance and investor protection mitigate the association between aggregate insider trades and future earnings surprises. Hence, holding constant the timely disclosures of insider trades, other capital market institutions play complementary roles in mitigating the informational frictions that give rise to the predictive content of aggregate insider trades.     

Risk-taking begets risk-taking: Evidence from casino openings and investor portfolios

We provide evidence that casino openings can have spillover effects on an individual's portfolio risk-taking. Using investor-level brokerage data and the initial legalization and opening of commercial casinos in the United States as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that, after a casino opens in close geographical proximity to investors, those with a high propensity to gamble (PTG) increase their idiosyncratic portfolio risk by 12.88% relative to those unlikely to gamble. This effect lasts for approximately 3 months and does not affect systematic portfolio risk. These results suggest that increased access to gambling can temporarily increase portfolio risk-taking for those with a PTG.     

What Can “Nine‐Eleven” Tell Us about Closed‐end Fund Discounts and Investor Sentiment?

We use the horrific events of September 11, 2001 (“nine‐eleven”) as a natural test of the hypothesis that closed‐end mutual fund discounts from fund net asset values reflect small investor sentiment. Because nine‐eleven was a sudden, unforeseen, and significantly negative and exogenous shock to the world, the capital markets, and investor sentiment, our test avoids many of the problems of extant studies. Discounts worsened dramatically following the event, and then recovered alongside the broader market. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that discounts reflect the sentiment of small investors, who took their cues from the broader market's overall movement.