STICKY WAGE, EFFICIENCY WAGE AND KEYNESIAN UNEMPLOYMENT

Abstract.  This paper provides a model of involuntary unemployment by combining the insights of the sticky wage theory and the efficiency wage theory. It implies that employed workers tend to supply more effort in response to economic downturns. Thus, a negative shock to an economy has intriguing impacts on the unemployment. The model also shows that a negative demand shock may have a relatively small effect on output since changes in work effort serve to partially mitigate the effects of the shock. Moreover, it yields some implications that complement the existing 'work sharing' literature.     

RESIDUAL WAGE DISPARITY AND COORDINATION UNEMPLOYMENT*

How much of residual wage dispersion can be explained by an absence of coordination among firms? To answer, we construct a dynamic directed search model with identical workers where firms can create high‐ or low‐productivity jobs and are uncoordinated in their offers to workers, calibrated to the U.S. economy. Workers can exploit ex post opportunities once approached by firms, and can conduct on‐the‐job search. The stationary equilibrium wage distribution is hump‐shaped, skewed significantly to the right, and, with baseline parameters, generates residual dispersion statistics 75–90% of those found empirically. However, the model underestimates the average duration of unemployment.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS,AND RESIDUAL WAGE DISPERSION

It is commonplace in the debate on Germany's labor market problems to argue that low wage dispersion is a major reason for the high unemployment rate. This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and residual wage dispersion for individuals with comparable attributes. In the conventional neoclassical point of view, wages are determined by the marginal product of the workers. Accordingly, increases in union minimum wages result in a decline of residual wage dispersion and higher unemployment. A competing view regards wage dispersion as the outcome of search frictions and the associated monopsony power of the firms. Accordingly, an increase in search frictions causes both higher unemployment and higher wage dispersion. The empirical analysis attempts to discriminate between the two hypotheses for West Germany analyzing the relationship between wage dispersion and both the level of unemployment as well as the transition rates between different labor market states. The findings are not completely consistent with either theory. However, as predicted by search theory, one robust result is that unemployment by cells is not negatively correlated with the within‐cell wage dispersion.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN: AN EFFCIENCY WAGE PERSPECTIVE

Many OECD economies suffered a productivity slowdown beginning in the early 1970s. However, the increase in unemployment that followed this slowdown was more pronounced in European economies relative to the USA. In this paper we present an efficiency wage model, which enables us to identify two basic channels through which the productivity slowdown can affect workers' effort incentives. Predictions of the model are consistent with the different trends in unemployment across countries over this period in the face of a similar slowdown in productivity. We also demonstrate how the link between growth and unemployment depends upon labour market institutions in such a way that we can reconcile the mixed empirical results observed in the literature.     

UNIONS' RELATIVE CONCERNS AND STRIKES IN WAGE BARGAINING

We consider a model of wage determination with private information in an oligopoly. We investigate the effects of unions having relative concerns on the negotiated wage and the strike activity. We show that an increase of unions’ relative concerns has an ambiguous effect on the strike activity.     

TRADE,TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,AND WAGE INEQUALITY: THE CASE OF MEXICO

Following the U.S.–Mexico trade integration, the skill premium rose dramatically in Mexico. Standard trade theory predicts the skill premium in a skill‐scarce country should fall—not rise—following such an integration. This article reconciles theory and data by building a model in which intermediate producers in Mexico begin to produce for the U.S. supply chain following liberalization. To do so, they must rent ideas from the United States, which are more skill‐intensive, thus increasing the skill premium. This mechanism is supported by the data: Mexican plants and industries that trade more with the United States rent more U.S. technology and have higher skill premia.     

THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL SHOCKS ON EMPLOYMENT AND THE REAL WAGE*

We study the transmission of fiscal shocks in the labor market. We employ a structural VAR and base identification on the restrictions that shocks to government consumption, investment, and employment must raise output and deficits. These restrictions hold in both prototype Real Business Cycle (RBC) and New Keynesian models. Shocks to government consumption and investment increase real wages and employment contemporaneously, both at state level and in the aggregate. The dynamics in response to employment shocks are mixed: Increases in government employment raise the real wage and total employment in the aggregate. However, in one third of the states they reduce total employment.     

PUBLIC DEBT AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH REAL WAGE RIGIDITIES

We present an endogenous growth model with public capital, public debt and real wage rigidities due to labor market imperfections. Assuming that the primary surplus relative to gross domestic produce (GDP) is a positive function of the debt to GDP ratio, we study growth and employment effects of deficit‐financed public investment using simulations as well as how fiscal policy affects stability of the economy. Further, we contrast the growth rate and the unemployment rate in the deficit scenario with that of the balanced budget scenario. Finally, we compare our results with those obtained in case of flexible wages and full employment.     

总需求和总供给冲击对我国失业和产出动态关系的影响分析

在我国的失业产出关系中,短期内,总供给冲击是产出波动的主要来源,总需求冲击则是失业波动的主要来源,总需求冲击和总供给冲击共同破坏了产出失业之间反向变化关系,但是总需求冲击的破坏作用更多一些。在长期,总需求冲击对产出没有影响,总供给冲击对产出有显著的正的影响,总需求冲击在长期对失业没有影响,但总供给冲击在长期会对失业产生不利影响,即正的供给冲击的累积影响所带来的产出增加在长期使我国的失业率上升。     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EFFORT, ORGANIZATION, AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN CHINESE FACTORIES

Production reports from a set of Chinese factories reveal very rapid productivity growth from 1980 to 1991. To understand the underlying factors, the effects of work effort and labor organization are separated from the productivity estimates. Data analysis reveals that these two effects jointly explain most of the measured productivity growth during this period. This result suggests that (1) very substantial productivity growth can be realized for economies in the take-off stage even without substantial pure technological advancement, and (2) in reforming the Chinese state factories, there will have to be a more difficult second stage to confront their technological backwardness.     

调整过程中的价格刚性与失业要素波动:一个动态一般均衡角度的分析

运用多产品和多要素的动态一般均衡模型,该文研究了从一个均衡价格向另一个均衡价格过渡的调整过程.应用搜寻模型,该文建立了一种联系产品市场和要素市场的调整技术,随后求解了一个最优控制问题,并证明最优价格调整路径必然是渐进的、逐步的.     

THE MINIMUM WAGE, WAGE SUBSIDIES, AND POVERTY

In an attempt to augment the lowest wages, the United States and several other countries utilize legal minimum wages. However, the minimum wage has potentially adverse employment effects. The analysis here suggests that an alternative policy that combines a minimum wage and a wage subsidy is superior to either by itself. Such a combination can assist the low wage worker, avoid disemployment effects, and maximize market efficiency.     

MAQUILADORA RESPONSE TO U.S. AND ASIAN RELATIVE WAGE RATE CHANGES

ThiS paper investigates whether the output of the Mexican maquiladoras is an alternative to production in the Pacific Rim. The analysis involves estimating supply functions for Mexican maquiladora output using relative wage data for Mexico, Singapore, and the United States. It also involves estimating the impact of relative wage rates on maquiladora output in five industries as well as on more aggregated levels. Results indicate that production in Mexico and in the Pacific Rim are substitutes, although this relationship is stronger for some industries than for others.     

UNEMPLOYMENT, HYSTERESIS AND TRANSITION

In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.     

搜索、政府花费和失业

本文在将搜索理论和经典的经济增长理论结合的基础上引入生产性政府花费,讨论了政府花费对就业和消费的影响。利用最一般的生产和效用函数,证明了均衡状态存在的唯一性。当失业工人和空闲职位的匹配是有效时,表示经济系统的四维动力系统存在一个稳定的二维流形。