A welfare analysis of the site value taxation model

This study is a short-run version of Brueckner's (long-run) analysis of graded tax systems. Brueckner assumes a long-run market equilibrium that allows for changes in the market value of the land with a zero profit condition. It is our contention that it is more realistic to solve for the short-run conditions with fixed value of land. Under these conditions, we find that if land is relatively inexpensive, the graded tax system leads to superiority in terms ofk (capital improvement per unit of land),Q (initial housing output), andCS (Consumers' Surplus). With steeper inverse demand curves and greater marginal product and initial housing output, the land tax has a more negative impact on profit with graded tax systems.     

Determinants of futures-oriented environmental policies: A multi-country analysis

This research explores the validity of several hypotheses concerning the future-orientedness of countries. Nine hypotheses that relate futures-orientedness to characteristics of countries are presented. Several of these hypotheses represent ‘conventional wisdom’ about the differences between developed and developing countries and their respective values and political systems. As an example, it can be argued that conventional wisdom holds that more democratic countries will be more futures-oriented. The number of international environmental agreements signed by a country and the number of provisions related to AGENDA21 being implemented by a country were used as proxies for measures of futures-orientedness. Almost 30 independent variables drawn from a variety of secondary sources were used in two multiple regression models to investigate the hypotheses. The results do not support several pieces of conventional wisdom. Specifically, the results suggest that there is: a negative relationship between democracy and futures-orientedness; no relationship between the level of development and futures-orientedness; and a negative relationship exists between wealth and life expectancy and futures-orientedness. These results call into question a view that more democratic, developed, and rich countries are more concerned about the future than their ‘less developed’ counterparts. The results did indicate that countries with more environmental problems tend to be more futures-oriented as are countries that may be experiencing population pressures. Countries with more land tend to be less futures-oriented. More work is needed to better understand the relationships between culture and governmental decision-making structures on futures-orientedness. Future research should also focus on constructing better measures of futures-orientedness.     

Insurance and opportunities: A welfare analysis of labor market risk

Using a model with constant relative risk-aversion preferences, endogenous labor supply and partial insurance against idiosyncratic wage risk, this paper provides an analytical characterization of three welfare effects: (a) the welfare effect of a rise in wage dispersion, (b) the welfare gain from completing markets, and (c) the welfare effect from eliminating risk. The analysis reveals an important trade-off for these welfare calculations. On the one hand, higher wage uncertainty increases the cost associated with missing insurance markets. On the other hand, greater wage dispersion presents opportunities to raise aggregate productivity by concentrating market work among more productive workers. Welfare effects can be expressed in terms of the underlying parameters defining preferences and wage risk or, alternatively, in terms of changes in observable second moments of the joint distribution over individual wages, consumption and hours.     

Profit sharing and investment by regulated utilities: A welfare analysis

We analyse the effects of different regulatory schemes (price cap and profit sharing) on the endogenous size of a firm's investment. Using a real option approach in continuous time, we show that profit sharing does not delay a firm's start-up investment compared to a pure price-cap scheme. Profit sharing does not necessarily affect total investment either, if the threshold for profit sharing is high enough. Only a profit sharing intervening for low profit levels could delay further investments. We also evaluate the effects of profit sharing on social welfare, determining profit level that should optimally trigger tighter regulation: profit sharing should be less stringent in sectors where there is more opportunity for larger investment.     

An experimental analysis of tax avoidance policies

Policies to reduce aggressive tax avoidance are increasingly being implemented or discussed in many countries around the world. Tax authorities hope that such policies will generate new tax revenue by increasing overall tax compliance. We present an experimental design to investigate the effect of a stylized anti-avoidance tax policy on tax compliance behavior. We highlight that anti-avoidance tax policies that reduce tax avoidance can also induce an increase in tax evasion (“substitution effect”), which limits the additional tax revenue these policies will generate. We show that the degree of substitution depends crucially on behavioral factors such as tax morale. Policymakers therefore also need to consider behavioral features while designing such policies and estimating their potential effects.     

Benefit-cost analysis and resource allocation decisions

Concern over the U.S. federal government's deteriorating infrastracture and large budget deficits has recently resulted in much attention being focused on the subject of federal capital expenditures (investments). At the same time, the Office of Management and Budget has recently taken steps to aggressively pursue a policy of requiring federal government managers to use benefit-cost (B-C) analysis techniques in preparing requests for certain types of capital expenditures. More specifically, OBM now requires the use of benefit-cost analysis techniques for major initiatives concerning the acquisition of information technology systems. In this paper it is argued, and empirically verified, that the federal government's use of B-C analysis technique affects the resource allocation process differently at different organizational levels (i.e. different decision strategies are appropriate at different organizational levels).     

Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs

With a growing popularity of index funds, we adopt a differences-in-opinion, general equilibrium framework to examine theoretically whether investors are better off with an index portfolio than active investing. In contrary to the conventional view, we find that, even for an active investor with the most accurate belief, switching to an index portfolio can significantly improve his expected ex-post welfare when the active investors have incorrect beliefs or face incomplete information. Moreover, the welfare improvement becomes more substantial when the active investors are more risk averse.     

Relating goals to policies in time-series analysis

Time-series analysis is a methodology of value to both futures researchers and policy evaluators; its data can be used to extrapolate trends concerning both future goal achievements and future policies. Time series can also be used to relate policies to goals provided that the reciprocal effect of goal achievement on policy adoption and vice versa is taken into consideration. The author suggests that the best method for adjusting for this reciprocal causation may be by using cross-lagged panel analysis.     

Decomposition analysis of distributive policies using behavioural simulations

For policy makers and analysts, it is important to isolate the redistributive impact of tax-benefit reforms from changes in the environment in which policies operate. When actual reforms are motivated by work incentives, it is also crucial to evaluate behavioural responses and the distributional consequences thereof. For that purpose, I embed counterfactual simulations in a formal decomposition framework to quantify the relative roles of (i)?direct tax-benefit policy changes, (ii)?indirect policy effects due to labour supply responses to the reforms and (iii)?all other factors affecting income distribution over time. An application to the UK shows that the redistributive reforms of the 1998–2001 period have offset much of the rise in market income inequality and contributed to a strong decline in child poverty and poverty amongst single parent households. In the latter group, a third of the headcount poverty reduction (and half of the reduction in the depth of poverty) is on account of the very large incentive effect of the policy changes.     

Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies

A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate whether the preferred course of action is avoiding the activity without further study, engaging in the activity without further study, or conducting a test or research programme to obtain additional information and following the result. When these thresholds are low, precautionary action is more likely to be warranted. When there are multiple stakeholders, differences in their perceptions of the benefit and cost of avoidance and differences in their perceptions of the accuracy of the additional information provided by the test or research programme combine to create differences in their decision thresholds. Thus, the model allows for the rational expression of differences among parties in a way that highlights disagreements and possible paths to conflict resolution. The model is illustrated with an application to phytosanitary standards in international trade and examined in terms of recent empirical research on lay perceptions of risks, benefits, and trust. Further research is suggested to improve the elicitation of model components, as a way of fostering the legitimate application of risk-based decision analysis in precautionary policy making.     

Differential pricing when costs differ: a welfare analysis

This article analyzes the welfare effects of monopoly differential pricing in the important, but largely neglected, case where costs of service differ across consumer groups. Cost‐based differential pricing is shown to increase total welfare and consumer welfare relative to uniform pricing for broad classes of demand functions, even when total output falls or the output allocation between consumers worsens. We discuss why cost‐based differential pricing tends to be more beneficial for consumers than its demand‐based counterpart, third‐degree price discrimination. We also provide sufficient conditions for welfare‐improving differential pricing when costs and demands differ across consumer groups.     

A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation

We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely long-lived investor with Epstein–Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables. Empirical estimates in long-run annual and post-war quarterly U.S. data suggest that the predictability of stock returns greatly increases the optimal demand for stocks. The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios depends on the importance of real interest rate risk relative to other sources of risk. Long-term inflation-indexed bonds greatly increase the utility of conservative investors.     

A comparison of static and dynamic portfolio policies

Garleanu and Pedersen (2013) show that the optimal static portfolio policy in light of quadratic transaction costs is a weighted average of the existing portfolio and the target portfolio. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of the robust target portfolio in the static portfolio policy that considers quadratic transaction costs. By using both empirical and simulated data, we find no evidence that the optimal dynamic portfolio policy proposed by Garleanu and Pedersen (2013) is superior to the static portfolio policy that trades towards the robust target portfolio. The robust target portfolio is achieved by either introducing time-varying covariances or restricting portfolio weights. Furthermore, the static portfolio with time-varying covariances and the short sale-constrained static portfolio are both very efficient in reducing portfolio turnover. The good performance of the static portfolio policy is robust to parameter uncertainty and trading parameters.     

Impact of central bank independence and transparency on international equity portfolio allocation: A cross-country analysis

In this study, we analyse the effects of central bank independence (CBI) and central bank transparency (CBT) and their interactions with institutional quality on foreign equity portfolio inflows. Employing a dataset from 42 countries over the period from 2001 to 2014, we find strong evidence that independent and transparent central bank has a positive and significant influence on foreign equity investment inflows. Further analysis shows that institutional quality interacts with central bank independence and transparency in attracting foreign equity portfolio. Our results are robust to alternative specifications, endogeneity concerns and that economic policy uncertainty increases asymmetric information and deters foreign equity portfolio investment inflows.     

An analysis of risk-based asset allocation and portfolio insurance strategies

This paper compares traditional portfolio insurance strategies with modern risk-based dynamic asset allocation strategies within a currency portfolio context for reserve management. Given the objective of preserving reserve value, the evaluation of the hedging performances of various strategies focuses on four perspectives regarding, in particular, the return distribution of the hedged portfolio. In terms of the Sharpe Ratio, the constant proportional portfolio insurance is the best performer due to having the lowest volatility, while the Value at Risk strategy based upon the normal distribution is the worst due to its having the smallest return. From the perspective that the return distribution of the hedged portfolio is shifted to the right, the synthetic put performs the best, with the expected shortfall strategy the second best. In terms of the cumulative portfolio return across years, the expected shortfall strategy using the historical distribution ranks first, as a result of its participation in upward markets. Furthermore, the expected shortfall-based strategy results in a lower turnover within the investment horizon, thereby saving transaction costs.     

Optimal allocation to hedge funds: an empirical analysis

What percentage of their portfolio should investors allocate to hedge funds? The only available answers to the above question are set in a static mean-variance framework, with no explicit accounting for uncertainty on the active manager's ability to generate abnormal return, and usually generate unreasonably high allocations to hedge funds. In this paper, we apply the model introduced in Cvitanic et al (2002b Working Paper USC) for optimal investment strategies in the presence of uncertain abnormal returns to a database of hedge funds. We find that the presence of the model risk significantly decreases an investor's optimal allocation to hedge funds. Another finding of this paper is that low beta hedge funds may serve as natural substitutes for a significant portion of investor risk-free asset holdings.     

企业年金税惠政策的经济学分析

目前,统一完善的税收优惠政策已成为企业年金制度发展的迫切要求,它直接影响着企业年金制度变迁的方式、企业年金需求及整个养老保障体系的政策选择等问题。因此,从制度变迁、需求弹性、收入替代效用等经济学范畴出发进行分析,可得出目前我国应尽快建立与企业年金发展相配套的税收优惠政策这一结论,但需注意的是应防止利用税惠政策优惠高薪雇员以及企业年金与基本养老金衔接的问题。